Elsaß und Lothringen

[Anthony Appleyard]

OTL: The Council of Vienna, tidying after Napoleon's rampages, lets France keep Alsace and Lorraine
ATL: The Council of Vienna realises that Alsace and Lorraine are mostly German-speaking and had not been part of France for long, and gives them to Prussia.

 

[Saepe Fidelis]

OTL: The Council of Vienna, tidying after Napoleon's rampages, lets France keep Alsace and Lorraine
ATL: The Council of Vienna realises that Alsace and Lorraine are mostly German-speaking and had not been part of France for long, and gives them to Prussia.

Doubt it honestly. Leaving the anachronism stew that is nationalism alone, the leaders of the time didn't care a jot about language. Consider this: Austria is one of the victorious powers. If it gives Alsace/Lorraine to Prussia (her 2nd worst enemy) then it should also give up its own Balkan empire because they don't speak German. Same, indeed, with most of France, which didn't speak French but rather a kind of Patois (e.g. Breton, Provencal etc.).

Furthermore, Alsace Lorraine doesn't even speak German. They speak Alsace, and in Lorraine they speak French, although as I've said, that doesn't mean much in the early 19th century. Alsace is very differnet from German, and in my mind is more similar to French (when I went to Strasbourg I could barely understand the people there despite knowing a certain amount of German-but no French).

Third, the victorious powers weren't really in a mood to punish France. Metternih wasn't after any great revision to the status quo, he just wanted Austria's rank maintained and Europe's balacne of power to remain. If France is weakened for Prussia's sake (which, by the way, performed poorly during the war and so would have little claim to new territory) then he'd be throwing out Austria's raison d'Etat.

So no, it's not goign to happen.

 

[Susano]

So no, it's not goign to happen.

Have Napoleon win at Waterloo and then being beaten by the Russians, and it just might. The Russians were not opposed to the idea of punishing France, but their armies IOTL arrived too late to have great influence over the matter. Its still a long shot, of course, and youre completly right in your reasoniingt (except for the lingual bit, Alsatian is a German dialect), but its also not exactly 100% impossible, either.

Of course, one has to wonder just what would happen with those territories. Personally of course Im partial to a Habsburg secundogeniture, but as you said, Metternich was against revisions of the status quo. And Baden's and Württemberg's pipe dreams in 1815 to gain the Alsace were just that, pipedreams...

 

[Mikestone8]

And the irony is that long term it would work to Austria's benefit, since in any future conflict with Prussia, the French are now guaranteed to take the Austrian side.

 

[Thande]

Lorraine could be removed from the French crown and given to another person, but it would be done on dynastic grounds and would not correspond to the later OTL provinces of Alsace and Lorraine.

 

[Kelenas]

Make A-L an independent state, perhaps? It would weaken the French without strengthening anyone else, so it would probably a possibility anyone (except the French, of course) could live with...

- Kelenas

 

[pompejus]

Make A-L an independent state, perhaps? It would weaken the French without strengthening anyone else, so it would probably a possibility anyone (except the French, of course) could live with...

- Kelenas

Possible, but who would rule it?

 

[Thande]

Possible, but who would rule it?

From the point of view of the Congress Powers, it makes sense to give it to some powerful state in order to discourage French military adventures. So probably either Prussia or the Hapsburgs. More probably the latter IMO as they can give it to some minor member of the family to ostensibly make it a fully independent state rather than a minor possession of a large crown, but with the Hapsburgs everyone knows that an attack on one of them is an attack on them all.

 

[Nitzkrieg]

If we want a way to put it in German hands, giving it to Austria seems to have a more legitimate claim. I mean, the house of Habsburg-Lorraine could try to redeem it. They certainly no longer had the agreed compensation in Tuscany.

 

[Falecius]

If France is going to be punished (that such a PoD presumes) plenty of land will be given away before Alsace-Lorraine. This would also help keeping the balance.
Basically I think that colonies are not going to be returned: so Martinica, Saint Pierre, Miquelon, Senegal, Réunion, Pondichéry, Yanaon, Mahé and Karikal, with any other French colony I may forget, will go to Britain, Cayenne to Portugal/Brazil, Guadeloupe to Sweden, Saint Martin to the Netherlands.
The Netherlands will probably also get Lille and Dunkirk. Spain might be given Roussillon, French Basque provinces and, more probably, the French share on the government of Andorra. Sardinia will almost surely get Corsica.
If Alsace-Lorraine is going to form an Habsburg state, Sardinia might be given also a part of Lombardy or, more likely, Parma (and Mary Louise is given Modena. The Bourbon-Parma line can be compensated with Modena itself, if the Habsburg-Modena line is given Alsace, or with some other place around. Maybe they can be given Tuscany and the Habsurg-Tuscany get Alsace and Lorraine, because IIRC they had both something like a claim on those areas, even though not a very strong one).
France is going to be rabid about the loss of Alsace-Lorraine alone, but such a scenario will make its elite feel more or less like Germany after OTL Versailles, if not worse. So the July revolution analog in such a TL would be... interesting. It will be far more radical for starters, and the Orléans regime will be forced to intervene in Belgium and probably in Italy, and to be openly hostile to Russia, maybe to the point of sending volunteers to Poland. This might cause a general war, and i'm not sure that France could survive it.

 

[Uriel]

Doubt it honestly. Leaving the anachronism stew that is nationalism alone, the leaders of the time didn't care a jot about language. Consider this: Austria is one of the victorious powers. If it gives Alsace/Lorraine to Prussia (her 2nd worst enemy) then it should also give up its own Balkan empire because they don't speak German. Same, indeed, with most of France, which didn't speak French but rather a kind of Patois (e.g. Breton, Provencal etc.).

Furthermore, Alsace Lorraine doesn't even speak German. They speak Alsace, and in Lorraine they speak French, although as I've said, that doesn't mean much in the early 19th century. Alsace is very differnet from German, and in my mind is more similar to French (when I went to Strasbourg I could barely understand the people there despite knowing a certain amount of German-but no French).

Third, the victorious powers weren't really in a mood to punish France. Metternih wasn't after any great revision to the status quo, he just wanted Austria's rank maintained and Europe's balacne of power to remain. If France is weakened for Prussia's sake (which, by the way, performed poorly during the war and so would have little claim to new territory) then he'd be throwing out Austria's raison d'Etat.

So no, it's not goign to happen.

German Nationalists (Stein, Arndt, Gneisenau) were heaviliy demanding roughly that area because:
1) it had been part of the HRE
2) Alsacien is a German dialect (really, I have no proplem understanding it) and in 1815 the "progressives" were allready carring about language

But by 1815 the nationalists big hour was allready over and the absolutists (Metternich, Hardenberg) were back in power in Austria and Prussia.

About the reasons why Metternich didn't want it to go to Prussia you are quite right (as with the fact that they speak French in Lorraine).

 

[archaeogeek]

At the time I suspect Lorraine was seen as less french than the sugar islands - yes the local dialect was close to French, but it had only been a part of France thanks to Habsburg and Bourbon horse trading ("we get Lorraine for Louis-Stanislas, he forgets his claims on the polish throne, but the duchy is out of the empire, you get Tuscany and we let the Bourbon claims over the Medici inheritance drop") during the reign of Louis XV and was part of France for barely 50 years at this point.

 

[Susano]

From the point of view of the Congress Powers, it makes sense to give it to some powerful state in order to discourage French military adventures.

Im not sure how much that holds, really. I mean, Ive seen it often stated as one of the reasons why Prussia got the Rhineland, but if thats true, why didnt it get/keep Belgium as well? And why was Baden allowed to be a frontier state?

And of course, the German Confederation also was a mutual protection alliance. Though that point in reality might indeed be strengthened if the King or Grand-Duke or whatever of Lorraine and Alsace is a Habsburg...

 

[Uriel]

Im not sure how much that holds, really. I mean, Ive seen it often stated as one of the reasons why Prussia got the Rhineland, but if thats true, why didnt it get/keep Belgium as well? And why was Baden allowed to be a frontier state?

And of course, the German Confederation also was a mutual protection alliance. Though that point in reality might indeed be strengthened if the King or Grand-Duke or whatever of Lorraine and Alsace is a Habsburg...

Conflicting interests of the big powers.

 

[HJ Tulp]

Im not sure how much that holds, really. I mean, Ive seen it often stated as one of the reasons why Prussia got the Rhineland, but if thats true, why didnt it get/keep Belgium as well? And why was Baden allowed to be a frontier state?

And of course, the German Confederation also was a mutual protection alliance. Though that point in reality might indeed be strengthened if the King or Grand-Duke or whatever of Lorraine and Alsace is a Habsburg...

Because otherwise the United Kingdom of the Netherlands wouldn't have been strong enough as blockade state.

 

[Leyermark]

I don't assume this would happen. If Alsace and Lorraine would be given to German state or put under a German dynasty because of their German language, the most deadly enemies of nationalism would turn out nationalist. Nope, not to Prussia. They already won too much in Poland, although they wanted whole of Saxonia.
IF the European powers would try to prevent France from, let's say, "natural borders" or easy-to-defend borders then it is most likely some smaller Dynast would become kind of duke or something of Alsace and Lorraine.

Furthermore, Alsace Lorraine doesn't even speak German. They speak Alsace, and in Lorraine they speak French, although as I've said, that doesn't mean much in the early 19th century. Alsace is very differnet from German, and in my mind is more similar to French (when I went to Strasbourg I could barely understand the people there despite knowing a certain amount of German-but no French).

Concerning the language: Today, Alsace and Lorraine belong to France and the population has definitely turned into French. So nowadays only old people speak the German dialect of "Alsatian" or of "Lorrain" (only the most Western part of Lorraine spoke French from 1871 to 1918...). Alsatian is a German dialect, but more related to the dialects of Baden and Switzerland: Even for person with German mother tongue it is very hard to understand, nevertheless it's a German dialect. Today, Alsatians have also developed a French dialect.

 

[Falecius]

I guess that when speaking of "Lorraine" in the context of this thread we are referring actually to the part of Lorraine that was annexed by Germany in 1871 OTL, i.e. the present-day French department of Moselle, that had actually a Germanic-speaking majority at the time, unlike most the rest of Lorraine, or to a more less corresponding area.

I post this for clarity sake.

 

[Simon]

Slight digression if Alsace-Lorraine did get split off from France and become an independent country under a non-Prussian ruler post-1866 wouldn't this much come into Prussia's power anyway, especially if a minor Habsburg had been put on the throne. Fast-forward 5 years and since they no longer have Alsace-Lorraine to take as a victory prize would the Prussians/now-Germans be crazy enough to annex the rest of the Lorraine region proper instead? That would really make the French revanchism crazy.

 

[Susano]

Because otherwise the United Kingdom of the Netherlands wouldn't have been strong enough as blockade state.

The UKNL wasnt strong enough as blockade state even with Belgium. Now, I can see the argument that the UKGBI wouldnt want the Belgian ports (which over all had been a focal point in British foreign politics for 150 years by that point, to have them not fall to France) to not fall to Prussia. But this whole "barrier states" argument seems rather like nonsense to me.

Slight digression if Alsace-Lorraine did get split off from France and become an independent country under a non-Prussian ruler post-1866 wouldn't this much come into Prussia's power anyway, especially if a minor Habsburg had been put on the throne. Fast-forward 5 years and since they no longer have Alsace-Lorraine to take as a victory prize would the Prussians/now-Germans be crazy enough to annex the rest of the Lorraine region proper instead? That would really make the French revanchism crazy.

Only if you totally discount butterflies.

 

[archaeogeek]

The UKNL wasnt strong enough as blockade state even with Belgium. Now, I can see the argument that the UKGBI wouldnt want the Belgian ports (which over all had been a focal point in British foreign politics for 150 years by that point, to have them not fall to France) to not fall to Prussia. But this whole "barrier states" argument seems rather like nonsense to me.

That's the silly thing with Belgium - it exists because every potential owner of the Flemish ports was a one time rival of Britain. Also it had, at independence, most of its defensive facilities aimed at France (the Netherlands retained control of the german side fortresses in Limburg, for example).