Effect of a Central Powers Victory on Japan and China

[Maponus]

While I'm sure we all agree that any kind of occupation or invasion of either Japan or China is out of the question, the fact remains that both nations declared war on the Central Powers and any kind of advantage they hoped to gain from an Allied victory is now beyond their reach. Without the Treaty of Versailles and the League of Nations, how will China and Japan settle their territorial disputes?

How exactly would the Central Powers treat Japan and China? How would public opinion in Asia be affected by defeat? What would be the long term impact of a Central Powers victory on the Far East?

 

[Vingilótë]

I don't think there would be very much effect at all, primarily because the ability of the CP to project power in the Far East was effectively nil. Like most of Germany's colonies, in fact, without any sort of leverage over Britain or Japan, they are likely to have to make concessions in this area in exchange for peace. So I imagine something like German New Guinea going to Britain either for concessions in Belgium or Luxemburg (or more likely, as the price of ending the war), and Shandong going to Japan, since China has no power to enforce her claim, and it's completely out of Germany's hands.

 

[Faeelin]

It would certainly have effects on both Japan and Germany. Most notably, an Allied defeat would discredit liberalism and internationalism in Japan.

 

[DanF]

I might be wrong on this, but I always thought China declared war to regain the German concession and get a seat at the peace conference table. They did not delcare til August 1917.

In a CP victory TTL, assuming it is a long war (otherwise the whole thing would be over before China could make a move), and most likley with no U.S. entry. I could see China might declare war against the Entente, to regain control of some of the Entente nation's concessions. This might even start an earlier 2nd Sino-Japanese war.

 

[The Gunslinger]

It would certainly have effects on both Japan and Germany. Most notably, an Allied defeat would discredit liberalism and internationalism in Japan.

I actually think it would have the opposite effect. If Germany is still the greatest threat to Britain and her empire, Britain might be inclined to maintain the alliance with Japan which would have a somewhat calming influence on the Japanese.

 

[EternalCynic]

First, Japan declared war on Germany almost immediately in 1914 in order to pursue the German concession in Shandong. So a CP victory returns Japan at least to pre-1895 boundaries. A loss of Manchuria for sure. A triumphant China will also demand the end of all European concessions and the return of Taiwan and the independence of Korea.

Depending how exactly WW1 turns out, this will radically affect China's domestic politics. IOTL in 1916 Premier Duan Qirui hoped China could gain prestige by joining the Allies, and made secret loans from Japan officially to build up China's army for the war (in reality it was to weaken his domestic political opponents), in exchange for Japanese takeover of European concessions. If a CP victory is imminent during a bout of political manoevering in 1916, it's probable that General Zhang Xun who was secretly funded by Germany would have seized power. *If* he was wise enough not to occupy Beijing and attempt to restore Puyi, Li Yuanhong's authority would have been retained with Zhang as the "power behind the throne".

A CP victory in 1916-7 *might* be enough to allow the Anhui Clique to end the Warlord Era after just one year. That would very radically affect China into the 1920s and 30s.

Germany would likely demand, and due to the weak Chinese government, receive some Chinese concessions. German control of Indochina would also be interesting.

 

[Henriksson]

First, Japan declared war on Germany almost immediately in 1914 in order to pursue the German concession in Shandong. So a CP victory returns Japan at least to pre-1895 boundaries.

Can't help but notice that the Japanese also almost immediately occupied Shandong, the largest German base in the Far East, with a minimal force. How would Germany go about forcing this peace?

 

[NothingNow]

Can't help but notice that the Japanese also almost immediately occupied Shandong, the largest German base in the Far East, with a minimal force. How would Germany go about forcing this peace?

Actually, it wasn't with minimal force. It was pretty much Desert Storm. Lavish use of artillery and available assets included.

But yeah, this would require a negotiated peace. Which might be good for Japan, which is now recognized as a decent power, came through the war almost completely unscathed, and will probably become an even more essential ally of the UK.

Tsingtao might be hard to get back, but making a deal for German Micronesia wouldn't be that hard. Besides, the Germans could always try to grab Indochina and Macau in the treaty, both of which would be a better base for the Far East anyway.

 

[Faeelin]

But yeah, this would require a negotiated peace. Which might be good for Japan, which is now recognized as a decent power, came through the war almost completely unscathed, and will probably become an even more essential ally of the UK.

But ask yourself what good a British alliance does Japan now. France is gone form the Far East, Russia is in the middle of civil war (and to the extent Russia is a problem, it's now Germany, not Japan, who has an interest in checking that).

 

[Monty Burns]

Would the Japanese switch sides?

After all, the war in East Asia is over pretty fast. Then the Japanese have time to wait and see how the European theatre develops. Japan taking a separate peace with Germany could be an important signal to the Entente. Then assume that the war continues some more months with Germany being as successful against Russia IOTL and the Japanese might consider that attacking a falling Russia is worth it?

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Essentially Germany would not have the means to force a peace on own terms against Japan and China (if China) is at war with Germany

I also doubt that Germany could "force"conditioons to the Dominions (which held some of the old German colonies)

To determine what happens you first have to clarify how the CPs won... - All nations at war with Germany will get their separate peace treaties - there will be no JOINT "Entente" defeat...

Assume they win on the Battlefield Russia and Romania are taken out as OTL...

assume further that GErmany somehow takes out France and Italy - thats all that Germany realistically can do. It can't occupy UK (Sealion - not even with the Hochseeflotte IMHO)

So the Scenario is probably a victory on the continantal Euriope and a strong position (troops for Turkey) in the Middle East.

Basically French and Italians ask for peace and UK says I can't fight Germany alone, but I am also save from Germany.

We get harsh terms for France and Italy

Germany would ask to get back the colonies, but that would require something to trade off

Japan and the Dominions would tell Germany come here and take what you want, but we won't give it to you.

UK might be forced to put pressure on them but in reality is probably more inclined to say those are independent nations.

As Germany probably also wants to end hostilities would try to make the best of the situation. Maybe - to save face - a moderate sum has to be paid by Japan and the dominions for the colonies. They keep them and germany can say : we have NOT lost them - we traded them away.

African Colonies are probably more digfficult. France certainly would have to give up its share of Togo and Kamerun. As OTL Germn east Africa had not surrendered it will be most likely stay German and probably the Brit occupied parts ot Togo/kamerum will also go back.

But Deutsch Südwest will probably also be traded. (to South Africa)

Germany might also want some French/Italian/Belgian colonies (Kongo most likely)

If Germany is hard on frnace - french Indochina might become German Indochina - which in turn might later spark German ambitions to regain its Pacific posessions... This certainly would have an huge impact on China and Japan.

IF (likely) the US never intervened japan and UK will stay on good terms to secure their "Chinese" (and indian/Korean) posessions.

GErmany might - as OTL - try to get a foothold in China economically without being a colonial power.

While Japan leans to UK China and Germany will grow closer. (OTL UK and Japan became enemies and GErmany grew nearer to Japans and dissolved ties to China).

 

[Catspoke]

So lets say you have a end of 1914/early 1915 CP favorable negotiated peace scenerio

1) French army mostly defeated, Germany occupying Rhiems, Amiens, Calais, Sossions, Verdun encicled and occupied.
2) Wilkings Conrad waits scenerio happens, Austria in better shape
3) No way Italy is joining the war effort with #1 and #2
4) Turkey is in, and enough of Serbia is taken to allow re-supply to Turky
4) any Allied victory, or CP complete victory still seems a long way off so CP favorable negotiations take place

Germany gets fortress of Liege, Luxembourg and French and Belgian colonial concessions in Africa (expand togo north to Niger, all of Belgian congo, 5 years occupation of Briery basin and indemnity payements. Britain gives up colonial concessions as well (Volta delta to Togo, Zanzibar and Pemba to Tangniyka).

Russia gets off pretty easy (basically hands off Turkey and the Balkans, whatever happens there is CP business), plus a cash imdemnity to Austria

Austria gets a little slice of Montenegro near Cattaro and 5 years occuption of nothern Serbia to clear out the terrorists and super police powers thereafter.

Britain and France are supposed to agree to allow return of all German occupied colonies (in exchange for a 10 year naval building holiday from all participants).

-----------------------------------

I don't think South Africa and Austrialia would want to try and resist this. Germany is a powerful country which could at the very least totally wreck their trade, mine their harbors, bombard points on shore with raiders. Southwest africa and pacific islands are not worth that.

-----------------------------------

Japan however has a big Navy, and would Germany risk sending almost her entire fleet all the way around the world to Japan over some pacific islands? Japan however risks making a permament enemy out of Germany which might push a Russia (blocked from Europe) her way, or Germany might try to modernize China in retaliation. Germany gets back her Tsingtao concession and the Palaus but Japan keeps the Marianas (except Yap) for her troubles for a nominal cash payment.

------------------------------------

However if its some 1918 CP favorable compromise peace and I think Germany has trouble getting any of her colonies back, after unrestricted submarine war, Britain wont take any peace that allows Germany potential submarine bases around the world. Plus the USA is in to help enforce this new state of the world.

 

[Blackfox5]

First, Japan declared war on Germany almost immediately in 1914 in order to pursue the German concession in Shandong. So a CP victory returns Japan at least to pre-1895 boundaries. A loss of Manchuria for sure.

No, it wouldn't. As others have pointed out, Germany has no way to enforce any demands on Japan. It may have won the war in Europe, but anything in East Asia is going to be settled by negotiation, not German dictates.

Japan won't lose a single inch of any territory prior to 1914. If Germany wants to strip Japan of its bits of Manchuria and Korea, it's going to need send its navy halfway around the world, land an army and fight Japan on its home turf. That is not feasible, and it is not going to happen.

Any German colonies it occupied during the war would be decided by negotiation. Negotiations may end in any of the below scenarios:
1) Japan returns all German colonies without any compensation
2) Japan keeps all German colonies, but agrees to pay compensation or Germany is compensated with Entente colonies.
3) Japan returns all German colonies but is compensated with transfer of some Entente colonies to it.
4) Some mix where Germany regains some colonies, while Japan may keep some others with Entene colonies given to Japan as well.

It really depends on how obstinate both Germany and Japan are, and what relationship both countries want with each other in the postwar world.

 

[NothingNow]

But ask yourself what good a British alliance does Japan now. France is gone form the Far East, Russia is in the middle of civil war (and to the extent Russia is a problem, it's now Germany, not Japan, who has an interest in checking that).

There's still the US as well, and the Kaiserliche Marine can now pose a much bigger threat to the colonies, Especially if the Far East Cruiser Squadron is based at Saigon, instead of somewhere as distant and easily isolated as Tsingtao.