Earlier Byzantine recoveries

[Silver01]

So we in this forum talked about late byzantine recovery or have things never happened, but what about an earlier recovery? in this case, say after 646 how early and with that good pods in the 7th century and 8th century can the byzantine empire start recovering some land like the 9th and later larger reconquest like 10 and 11th century what would have to go well naval dominance? dealing with the slavs and how to stop the caliphate since it would be already quite powerfull

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Well, the VIII century saw some great Roman victories against both the Arabs and the Bulgars. Now imagine if those still take place, this time without the prior 20 years anarchy. I could see the Romans actually keeping a solid presence both in the East and the West. If the Arabs are willing to keep the peace treaty signed with Justinian II in place, and he doesn't get deposed nor betrays it, that would allow the Romans to more comfortably shift their focus West (prevent the fall of Ravenna) and North. As humiliating as it would be, even paying a tribute in exchange for a free hand in the West would be worth it. So my answer is VIII century. I don't believe of course that they can get back to the 395 borders, but they can definitely achieve more than IOTL.

 

[Silver01]

Well, the VIII century saw some great Roman victories against both the Arabs and the Bulgars. Now imagine if those still take place, this time without the prior 20 years anarchy. I could see the Romans actually keeping a solid presence both in the East and the West. If the Arabs are willing to keep the peace treaty signed with Justinian II in place, and he doesn't get deposed nor betrays it, that would allow the Romans to more comfortably shift their focus West (prevent the fall of Ravenna) and North. As humiliating as it would be, even paying a tribute in exchange for a free hand in the West would be worth it. So my answer is VIII century. I don't believe of course that they can get back to the 395 borders, but they can definitely achieve more than IOTL.

hmm the problem with Justinian even if he doesn't break the treaty he would have to deal with tervel , I dont think the caliph would attack any time soon in 692 as he fresh out of a civil war but you are saying that here he assures peace in the east and concentrates fully on bulgaria?

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Perhaps a more successful Justinian II as already mentioned. Have him avoid the Slavs revolting thus avoiding defeat at Sebastapolis.

Or have Nikephorus I not get destroyed alongside his army at pliska and get turned into a cup. That might’ve allowed for a much earlier reconquest of the balkans.

 

[Silver01]

Perhaps a more successful Justinian II as already mentioned. Have him avoid the Slavs revolting this avoiding defeat at Sebastapolis.

Or have Nikephorus I not get destroyed alongside his army at pliska and get turned into a cup. That might’ve allowed for a much earlier reconquest of the balkans.

Nikephoros dealing with krum even if he wins a battles would take as long as basil conquest imo

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Nikephoros dealing with krum even if he wins a battles would take as long as basil conquest imo

That’s true. It could still take along time or fail. But it would still be over a century and a half ahead of time.

 

[Silver01]

That’s true. It could still take along time or fail. But it would still be over a century and a half ahead of time.

true but then again he was old and Staurakios was not the best still assuming it takes 20 years and the generals do the heavy lifting bulgaria is conquered by 830s the abbassid caliphate is about to disintegrate but then again the butterflies

 

[Vinization]

My favorite POD is a more successful Constantine V - he scored several victories against the Bulgars, after all, so having him fully subjugate them (or begin to do so, leaving the rest of the job to the equally capable Leo IV) shouldn't be a big stretch. The possible consequences of an iconoclastic ERE (and, among other things, an early schism with the papacy) are profoundly fascinating to me.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

true but then again he was old and Staurakios was not the best still assuming it takes 20 years and the generals do the heavy lifting bulgaria is conquered by 830s the abbassid caliphate is about to disintegrate but then again the butterflies

That’s if it really would take that long. With the butterflies he might not take 20 years. And idk if the butterflies of an earlier Bulgarian reconquest could save the Abbasids. Would be interesting to see how an ERE with no bulgar threat would deal with the caliphate falling apart.

 

[Silver01]

My favorite POD is a more successful Constantine V - he scored several victories against the Bulgars, after all, so having him fully subjugate them shouldn't be a big stretch. The possible consequences of an iconoclastic ERE (and, among other things, an early schism with the papacy) are profoundly fascinating to me.

Well the inoclast would depend how late of a pod it is like if he conquers it late like 770s then Leo is already married to irene and while the conquest of Bulgaria would give it a major Boost constantine death would mean he would not capitalize on it so it really hinges on Leo IV actions

 

[Silver01]

That’s if it really would take that long. With the butterflies he might not take 20 years. And idk if the butterflies of an earlier Bulgarian reconquest could save the Abbasids. Would be interesting to see how an ERE with no bulgar threat would deal with the caliphate falling apart.

on the one hand bulgaria is smaller , on the other neither nikephoros and especially his son was as good commanders as Basil II , krum was just as good if not better than Samuel and bulgaria still has territory north of the danube due to krum recent expansion so it really depends in the Byzantines will be fine with them sticking to the north of the river or want to do ala muarice and break their power base of the north

 

[Vinization]

Well the inoclast would depend how late of a pod it is like if he conquers it late like 770s then Leo is already married to irene and while the conquest of Bulgaria would give it a major Boost constantine death would mean he would not capitalize on it so it really hinges on Leo IV actions

Hm, depends on when the conquest takes place - the offensives started in the 750s. As for Leo IV, would not having him die prematurely suffice? He was pretty competent IIRC, and if he inherits an empire that is stronger than IOTL's because of a successful reconquest of Bulgaria, he could be primed for some major successes in either the east or Italy.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

on the one hand bulgaria is smaller , on the other neither nikephoros and especially his son was as good commanders as Basil II , krum was just as good if not better than Samuel and bulgaria still has territory north of the danube due to krum recent expansion so it really depends in the Byzantines will be fine with them sticking to the north of the river or want to do ala muarice and break their power base of the north

That’s true. But they had generals to aid them to make up for that. And that’s true that Krum was very talented and had northern territory as well. I don’t think that in a scenario with an earlier Bulgarian reconquest that they’d go north of the Danube.

 

[Silver01]

Hm, depends on when the conquest takes place - the offensives started in the 750s. As for Leo IV, would not having him die prematurely suffice? He was pretty competent IIRC, and if he inherits an empire that is stronger than IOTL's because of a successful reconquest of Bulgaria, he could be primed for some major successes in either the east or Italy.

yeah it took 20 years , 756 was the starting point, But yeah leo living longer does help if he does get another major success imo he can make iconoclasm last even though Leo IV, though an iconoclast was much more of moderation towards iconophiles than his dad until 780 now that you mention it i wanna see a Leo IV vs harrun al rhasid timeline

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

hmm the problem with Justinian even if he doesn't break the treaty he would have to deal with tervel , I dont think the caliph would attack any time soon in 692 as he fresh out of a civil war but you are saying that here he assures peace in the east and concentrates fully on bulgaria?

He doesn't need to do everything immediately. Tervel is quite an impressive foe, Justinian would be better off leaving his successors to deal with Bulgaria at a time the Bulgars are fighting against each other. Peace in itself has its own value, as well as in preparation for future wars of reconquest. Justinian (the first) was able to accomplish as much as he did because Anastasius broke his own back trying to refill the imperial treasury following the disastrous expedition of Leo. This second Justinian could fill a similar role. He should focus on finishing his own reorganization of the army and the themes, crush minor foes (like the slavic tribes in the Balkans outside of Tervel influence) and if he is really looking for a great success abroad, he should look at Italy. I might be biased here, but unlike the Arabs (too huge) or the Bulgars (too competent of a leadership), Italy could give him some relatively easy success. But for that he would have to work for peace on the other fronts first. Plus the bulk of the reconquest would have to be done by his successors anyway.

 

[Silver01]

He doesn't need to do everything immediately. Tervel is quite an impressive foe, Justinian would be better off leaving his successors to deal with Bulgaria at a time the Bulgars are fighting against each other. Peace in itself has its own value, as well as in preparation for future wars of reconquest. Justinian (the first) was able to accomplish as much as he did because Anastasius broke his own back trying to refill the imperial treasury following the disastrous expedition of Leo. This second Justinian could fill a similar role. He should focus on finishing his own reorganization of the army and the themes, crush minor foes (like the slavic tribes in the Balkans outside of Tervel influence) and if he is really looking for a great success abroad, he should look at Italy. I might be biased here, but unlike the Arabs (too huge) or the Bulgars (too competent of a leadership), Italy could give him some relatively easy success. But for that he would have to work for peace on the other fronts first. Plus the bulk of the reconquest would have to be done by his successors anyway.

Well the problem of Justinian II is that he was to much like Justinian I with not of the recourses i guess in italy he migth try to what his grandfather failed in 663

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

I think the best POD is having Asparukh of the Danube Bulgars invading the Avars instead of the Byzantines like OTL. As it would give Constantine IV(Justinian II's father) the breathing room to focus on deporting the Slavic tribes into Anatolia and re-establishing Roman rule over Southeastern Europe and the Duchy of Benevento, with Justinian II completing the reconquest of Italia with the assistance the Carpathian/Pannonian Bulgars.

The Bulgar - Byzantine Wars occuring over control of the Croats and Serbs.

 

[Silver01]

I think the best POD is having Asparukh of the Danube Bulgars invading the Avars instead of the Byzantines like OTL. As it would give Constantine IV(Justinian II's father) the breathing room to focus on deporting the Slavic tribes into Anatolia and re-establishing Roman rule over Southeastern Europe and the Duchy of Benevento, with Justinian II completing the reconquest of Italia with the assistance the Carpathian/Pannonian Bulgars.

The Bulgar - Byzantine Wars occuring over control of the Croats and Serbs.

But Constantine IV had little interest in italy but could yeah concentrate on the slavs makes sense

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

Well the problem of Justinian II is that he was to much like Justinian I with not of the recourses i guess in italy he migth try to what his grandfather failed in 663

Hence, he needs to scale down his ambition. Focus on preparing the ground for the next generation (less glory to be acquired with that but still very important) and internally strengthening the empire. Probably the priority should be to just avoid further losses (like Africa and Ravenna) for the time being though. In Italy I believe he should avoid what his grandfather did, going there in person. There are both pros and cons for an emperor to personally visit Italy, but at this time I don't think Justinian can afford to leave the East (unless he had someone like a brother he could utterly trust) for very long periods of time nor any Italian city can afford to sustain an emperor and his court (in addition to the new army and fleet).

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

But Constantine IV had little interest in italy but could yeah concentrate on the slavs makes sense

Unless he sends his son their for experience in ruling and improving relations with the Pope as no Battle on Ongal means he doesn't get his OTL sickness or it is delayed enough that he has a longer reign.