In an ATL where Ottoman empire survives and thrives (either in a no world war or central power victory scenario) how much more peaceful would the middle east be? I'm thinking specifically regarding a world without Saudi arabia and the Israel/Palestine conflict, both of which could be avoided with a survivng Ottoman. Or would other conflicts still arise to derail peace in the region?
Does surviving Ottoman empire lead to a peaceful middle east?
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raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Safest guess- A surviving Ottoman Empire leads to a Middle East with very few international wars - perhaps on one occasion or another, an Ottoman-Iranian war (perhaps like the Iran-Iraq war, over the Shatt al-Arab), or an Ottoman-Egyptian, a Cyprus invasion/intervention, an Ottoman invasion (called a reclamation) of Kuwait or some other intervention in the Arabian Peninsula.
However, if this is fewer wars - no Egyptian Yemeni, no Arab-Israeli, etc., it is still a safe bet the Ottoman Empire would be beset by many periods of civil war, uprising, and mass repression internally. It all just has an international border around it. Similar wine, different bottle.
However, if this is fewer wars - no Egyptian Yemeni, no Arab-Israeli, etc., it is still a safe bet the Ottoman Empire would be beset by many periods of civil war, uprising, and mass repression internally. It all just has an international border around it. Similar wine, different bottle.
Only if the surviving Ottoman Empire is one that diverges from OTL in the mid 19th Century at the latest, as during the reign of Abdul Hamid II persecution of minorities became more common (Hamidian massacres) which heightened during the Second Constitutional Era (Adana massacre, Armenian / Greek / Assyrian genocides) during this period along with the early republican period there was also conflict with Kurds that if the Ottomans continued could have been worse, again this all depends on what sort of Ottoman state is continuing. The continuance of a state that has committed these acts does not bode well for future peace, far from peaceful the late Ottoman period saw death and violence everywhere.
You could reason that a continuing Ottoman Empire will avert civil wars (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen), the Israel-Palestine issue, Islamic terrorism which would make the middle east more peaceful, however this assumes the Ottomans are not carved up by the western powers anyway, they put up stiff resistance during The Great War but without allies in a post war world there is little in the way of having a Skyes-Picot esque partition of the Levantine and Arabian lands of the Ottoman Empire. An earlier POD would also help to avert the persecutions of muslims during the Ottoman retraction if lands with significant muslim populations can be kept, the concern would be that pan-Islamism whilst helping to keep the late Ottoman state together could still lead to persecution and genocides of its Christian population anyway.
If the late Ottomans could maintain their territorial integrity than according to the violet line they would have access to Saudi oil wealth provided they could crush the house of Saud who had begun to rise during the late Ottoman period (The Great War put a pause on crushing them), then again this wealth might be exploited for the worse instead of the better so long as the authoritarian and suppressive strain of the late Ottomans continues.
The trouble I see is that to my knowledge Abdul Hamid II bought the empire more time as the situation was pretty dire when he took over and it was his authoritarian approach in that time of crisis which kept the empire together but this is what allowed his regime to begin the approach of violent repression of minorities. The first thought is to at least go back to the reign of Abdulaziz who was mostly useless.
Turkey reformed because its survival as a nation depended on it, as a depopulated nation with enemies and imperialist powers to all sides, if the Ottomans do not have the same concerns for their security and existance then they will not put in all the effort to reform that the early Turkish republic did, so we cannot see a surviving Ottomans as being of the standards of modern Turkey, even including oil wealth.
Additionally a Ottomans to survives for longer may still collapse in a similar fashion to OTL Yugoslavia.
You could reason that a continuing Ottoman Empire will avert civil wars (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen), the Israel-Palestine issue, Islamic terrorism which would make the middle east more peaceful, however this assumes the Ottomans are not carved up by the western powers anyway, they put up stiff resistance during The Great War but without allies in a post war world there is little in the way of having a Skyes-Picot esque partition of the Levantine and Arabian lands of the Ottoman Empire. An earlier POD would also help to avert the persecutions of muslims during the Ottoman retraction if lands with significant muslim populations can be kept, the concern would be that pan-Islamism whilst helping to keep the late Ottoman state together could still lead to persecution and genocides of its Christian population anyway.
If the late Ottomans could maintain their territorial integrity than according to the violet line they would have access to Saudi oil wealth provided they could crush the house of Saud who had begun to rise during the late Ottoman period (The Great War put a pause on crushing them), then again this wealth might be exploited for the worse instead of the better so long as the authoritarian and suppressive strain of the late Ottomans continues.
The trouble I see is that to my knowledge Abdul Hamid II bought the empire more time as the situation was pretty dire when he took over and it was his authoritarian approach in that time of crisis which kept the empire together but this is what allowed his regime to begin the approach of violent repression of minorities. The first thought is to at least go back to the reign of Abdulaziz who was mostly useless.
Turkey reformed because its survival as a nation depended on it, as a depopulated nation with enemies and imperialist powers to all sides, if the Ottomans do not have the same concerns for their security and existance then they will not put in all the effort to reform that the early Turkish republic did, so we cannot see a surviving Ottomans as being of the standards of modern Turkey, even including oil wealth.
Additionally a Ottomans to survives for longer may still collapse in a similar fashion to OTL Yugoslavia.
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Pretty hard to tell, how much of the empire survives? How does it survive? are the two main questions that has be answered. Whatever issues you have with Ataturk he did change the political framework and brought Turkey into the modern world. He rightly saw that the age of empires was nearing its end and he also rightly concluded that empires are a burden to the nation maintaining it and to the subjected people. It is lose lose for both. Whatever the collapse of the Ottomans did for the middle east, for Turkey the collapse was on the balance a positive albeit could have been handled in a more peaceful manner. Turkey transitioning to a republic allowed it concentrate on itself and not get entangled in geopolitics of the middle east and south eastern Europe.
Wolf1965
Donor
I have great doubts that the Ottoman Empire can survive in the form it was in 1914 or so. It was known as the sick man of Europe for a reason, the Empire had been beaten like a drum in various wars, had not gotten on the Industrial Revolution train and had a legitimation problem.
It was, together with the Habsburg Empire, the last old style Empires that ruled over various minorities by divine fiat and right of conquest or marriage.
There were also a lot of reforms that needed doing, but were ignored by the Topkapi palace.
By the middle of the 19th Century nationalism and some form of civil participation of government was all the rage, an old-style Empire would have had to be very successful to be a long-time prospect, and the Ottoman Empire was the poster-boy of being in decline.
So what you need is a reform some time in the 19th century similar to the Meiji reform: Different government, implementation of technology, a parliament and some form of minority participation. The latter can either be as in modern states, or more like the British Rai: Find a minority that helps to suppress the rest.
And that is a really tall ask, in ASB territory in my mind.
It was, together with the Habsburg Empire, the last old style Empires that ruled over various minorities by divine fiat and right of conquest or marriage.
There were also a lot of reforms that needed doing, but were ignored by the Topkapi palace.
By the middle of the 19th Century nationalism and some form of civil participation of government was all the rage, an old-style Empire would have had to be very successful to be a long-time prospect, and the Ottoman Empire was the poster-boy of being in decline.
So what you need is a reform some time in the 19th century similar to the Meiji reform: Different government, implementation of technology, a parliament and some form of minority participation. The latter can either be as in modern states, or more like the British Rai: Find a minority that helps to suppress the rest.
And that is a really tall ask, in ASB territory in my mind.
yeah but oil becomes a "Thing" only in the mid 20th century when automobile industry took off in the united states and in the west, prior to the experts in the filed were not so gun ho about crude oil, like they felt the deposits are limited and that drilling deeper would be prohibitively expensive and what not, the best bet back then was coal liquefaction. With all of these factors at play, how would the ottomans survive till crude oil becomes a thing with is 30 or 40 years away give or take?
OE had indeed lot of internal troubles but it was too reforming. That what brought Ottomans and Habsburgs down was loss at WW1. I whole war is avoided or CPs win the war, OE has chances to survive. It even lasted longer than Habsburgs did.
But if OE manage to survive Middle East probably would be more peaceful altough there would be still lot of conflicts. But if OE manage to keep its OTL borders in 1914 it could keep situation in control.