Discussion / WI : a Third Palestinian territory / Safed strip

Let’s say that Syria manage to do far better during the 48 war because of PoDs before the wars ( or even Palestinian militia in mandatory Palestine civil war doing better in the region) and manage to take keep something around these land ( the red line) .
What would be the consequence ?
in the short term ,
I guess Jews in the area flee or expelled and Palestinian state refugees from elsewhere are settled there ,
It is possible something like https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-Palestine_Protectorate taking more importance if they are not solely restricted to Gaza ?
How much populated do the strip is likely to become ?
what are the effect on Israel ?
the Arab world ? Palestine ?
The territory was mainly not part of the Palestinian proposed state of the partition plan will it have some effect on its statu ?
Assuming a alternate six days war happen would the strip be ethnically cleansed / depopulated ?
considered part of the occupied Palestinian Territories ?
assuming it isn’t anymore depopulated than the West Bank and Gaza were how do it affect the Israel / Palestine conflict and the wider Arab Israel one ?


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Deleted member 109224

Syria would try to annex it outright like they attempted with the land East of Lake Tiberias, and Israel would just annex it back like they did with the land East of Lake Tiberias after 1967 OTL. The Israelis aren't going to let the headwaters of their country's main water supply be outside of their reach.
 
Short-term consequences are that the majority of the Jewish population in the region either flees (war and possible massacres of Jewish civilian populations by the Syrian army or Palestinian militias) or is expelled during the war, and those that stay are very likely either heavily ‘encouraged’ to emigrate or outright expelled from the region after the war.
Palestinian refugees to Syria are very likely settled in the region.
IMO Syria does the same with region as Egypt did with Gaza and assumes ‘trusteeship’ over the territory ‘on behalf of the Palestinian people’ or some such and effectively governs the region while pretending that the All-Palestine Protectorate has any authority. It is possible that the All-Palestine Protectorate is kept around officially longer if its ‘official authority’ is split between territories controlled by Egypt and Syria and not de facto dissolved by Egypt in 1953 (doing so would allow Syria to organize another ‘Palestinian government’ in their territory and allow them to score propaganda points by doing so) and is perhaps even allowed to return to the territories it is supposed to govern (IOTL it was forbidden to return to Gaza by Egyptian authorities), but neither Egypt nor Syria are interested in giving it any real authority.
If the formation of the UAR still happens, then the All-Palestine Protectorate is dissolved as IOTL, though it is possible that the Palestinian territories of Egypt and Syria are formally incorporated into the UAR as Palestine and since the All-Palestine Protectorate claims authority over all of Mandatory Palestine the UAR would lay claim to these lands as well.
Either way, once the UAR dissolves (Nasser’s behavior of not sharing power or compromising with the Syrian elites makes it almost certain that this will happen IATL as well) the situation returns to what is was before 1958. Syria might organize another Palestinian puppet government in the territories it controlled, but nothing much would change.

Israel likely later takes the region in an alt-Six-Days-War; the war won’t occur at exactly the same time as IOTL with a POD in 1948 but the dynamics of the regions and the political actors involved make it likely that sooner or later another Arab-Israeli war will happen, which Israel will win.
Israel likely annexes the area and settlement will begin, with historical Jewish settlements like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yesud_HaMa'ala likely reestablished first and the area around Lake Hula a priority target for settlements.
An interesting question would be the status of the region’s Arab population: would they made Israeli citizens or retain their Syrian citizenship?

All of this assumes that history proceeds more or less as IOTL, but I can think of three scenarios which could alter the region’s history in more profound ways:

1) as described above nothing much changes until 1963, but the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1963_Syrian_coup_d'état fails due to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ziad_al-Hariri, who was the commander of the Syrian army units facing Israel and played a significant role in the Baathist coup of 163 succeeding by leading these forces to Damascus in support of the coup, not being in its IOTL position and another commander not supporting the coup (different war of 1948 would mean different military postings and military careers afterwards). Afterwards, the army is purged of many officers with pro-Baathist leanings and Syria either continues as a civilian republic or the next coup attempt brings the Syrian Nasserists to power and the UAR is reestablished in some form. Either way, the history of Syria and possible the region and Arab nationalism would be profoundly changed.

2) There are indications that the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Liberation_Army planned to massacre the 1.700 strong Jewish population of Safed if it could take the city and IOTL the Syrian army deliberately shelled the civilian parts of Sadeh’s Jewish quarter IOTL. If such a massacre happens, it would be by far the single biggest massacre in the 1948 of either side and incite public opinion in Israel against Syria, especially if coupled with other massacres of Jews in the region. It would also make public opinion in the West more sympathetic to Israel and increase support of Israel among the American Jewry as Israeli claim that they are defending themselves against an enemy looking to at least ethnically cleanse Mandatory Palestine of Jews in the 1948/1949 war gain a lot more credibility in their eyes. Syria becomes Public Enemy No 1 in Israel and Israel might be tempted to escalate to escalate one of the intermittent hostilities that occurred IOTL despite the ceasefire agreement into a full-scale war in order to gain more buffer territory against Syria, either before or after 1956. Also, with Israel focussed on Syria it might not participate in the 1956 war which would deprive Britain and France of their casus belli for intervention, or if Israel has gone to war with Syria before 1956 and won Nasser might not feel up for confrontation with Israel in 1956 and, while still nationalizing the Suez Canal, decide not to close the Straits of Tiran. Either way, the Suez War is likely butterflied away, which would change regional history in a myriad of ways and possibly make Syria and not Nasserist Egypt the leader of Arab Nationalism.

3) Emboldened by a more successful performance in the 1948/1949 war, Syria forms a defense pact with Egypt before the 1956 War and is thus drawn into the war. It is possible that this changes US opinion of Suez Crisis, and the war is regarded less as a British-French imperialist adventure that will damage US political objectives in the region but more as a pre-emptive strike against a dangerous Egyptian-Syrian bloc supported by the Soviet Union (the Soviets sold arms both Egypt and Syria in that period, but was much closer politically to Syria and Syrian communists had a strong presence in the Syrian army and government) and the US doesn’t pressure Britain and France to abandon the war.
 

Deleted member 109224

Israel would annex the place outright and give the Palestinians there permanent residency and the right to apply for citizenship, like in the Golan and East Jerusalem. The Citizenship application process would be a bureaucratic pain and most people won't apply for citizenship on principle, meaning they can't vote in national elections. But they'd probably have the right to vote in Local Elections the way East Jerusalem residents do, but then there'd be issues because they'd still refuse to vote in the elections on principle.

Internationally this would be a weirder dynamic because it might internationally be viewed as Syria occupying Israeli territory rather than the other way around; so Israel grabbing it might not be condemned the same way Israel occupied other territories.
 
Israel would annex the place outright and give the Palestinians there permanent residency and the right to apply for citizenship, like in the Golan and East Jerusalem. The Citizenship application process would be a bureaucratic pain and most people won't apply for citizenship on principle, meaning they can't vote in national elections. But they'd probably have the right to vote in Local Elections the way East Jerusalem residents do, but then there'd be issues because they'd still refuse to vote in the elections on principle.

Internationally this would be a weirder dynamic because it might internationally be viewed as Syria occupying Israeli territory rather than the other way around; so Israel grabbing it might not be condemned the same way Israel occupied other territories.
Israel would have to be very careful in how it justifies annexing the region internationally because any reference that the region belongs to Israel based on the UN Partition plan could be construed an implicit acknowledgement of the legitimacy of the partition plan borders and open up Israel to Palestinian counter-claims that go beyond Gaza and the West Bank.
Even though this wouldn’t amount to anything since the Palestinians have no way to enforce these claims, it would be very bad politics for any Israeli government to be seen as acknowledging the legitimacy of the partition plan borders and a windfall for their domestic opponents.
 
With Syria controling the headwaters of the Jordan the War over Water will escalate much faster and will turn into a full scale war because Syria will actually have the ability to block the Jordan from flowing into Lake Tiberias and therefore will at least attempt to do so like IOTL.
If history proceeds mostly like IOTL until the early 60s (Suez Crisis, creation and dissolution of the UAR), and Israel then escalates one of the skirmishes with Syrian troops into a full-scale war in order to secure water security for Israel (due to Syria aggressively prosecuting the Water War), it is very possible that the war will be a strictly Israeli-Syrian war.
Jordan IOTL only signed a defensive treaty with Egypt a week before the Six-Days-War and has no reason to try to bail out Syria.
And if Israel begins the war without much forewarning, then Egypt won’t be able to do anything because the UN peacekeepers are still in the Sinai, the Egyptian military needs preparation before it can enter the war and by then it will be over, plus Egypt’s military is heavily engaged in North Yemen at this time.

Now that Israel has effortlessly smashed Syria’s Soviet-equipped and assisted army (similar to Egypt’s army and that won’t be lost on Nasser and the Egyptian high command), Nasser likely is more cautious before provoking Israel and it is possible that Nasser dies before he feels ready to start a war with Israel.
If Nasser’s successor is Sadat or another moderate, then it is possible that Egypt simply loses interest in waging war against Israel as Sadat only went to war in 1973 to recover the Sinai, which Egypt still controls IATL.
In this scenario, Egypt keeps control of Gaza and Jordan keeps control of the West Bank including East Jerusalem and neither is willing to allow any Palestinian organization too much freedom in order to keep the status quo with Israel and avoid war and a de facto peace settles over the region, though no formal peace treaties are signed.

Whether Syria on its own tries another against Syria depends IMO on what happens in Syria politically: if things happen like IOTL I don’t think Assad will risk a war against Israel alone that could potentially endanger his regime, but if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salah_Jadid wins the post-1966 power struggle against Assad, Syria radicalizes, moves even closer to the Soviet Union and prepares to at it alone against Israel a second time as Jadid comes across as the sort of ideological true believer crazy enough to try something like that.
 
If history proceeds mostly like IOTL until the early 60s (Suez Crisis, creation and dissolution of the UAR), and Israel then escalates one of the skirmishes with Syrian troops into a full-scale war in order to secure water security for Israel (due to Syria aggressively prosecuting the Water War), it is very possible that the war will be a strictly Israeli-Syrian war.
Jordan IOTL only signed a defensive treaty with Egypt a week before the Six-Days-War and has no reason to try to bail out Syria.
And if Israel begins the war without much forewarning, then Egypt won’t be able to do anything because the UN peacekeepers are still in the Sinai, the Egyptian military needs preparation before it can enter the war and by then it will be over, plus Egypt’s military is heavily engaged in North Yemen at this time.

Now that Israel has effortlessly smashed Syria’s Soviet-equipped and assisted army (similar to Egypt’s army and that won’t be lost on Nasser and the Egyptian high command), Nasser likely is more cautious before provoking Israel and it is possible that Nasser dies before he feels ready to start a war with Israel.
If Nasser’s successor is Sadat or another moderate, then it is possible that Egypt simply loses interest in waging war against Israel as Sadat only went to war in 1973 to recover the Sinai, which Egypt still controls IATL.
In this scenario, Egypt keeps control of Gaza and Jordan keeps control of the West Bank including East Jerusalem and neither is willing to allow any Palestinian organization too much freedom in order to keep the status quo with Israel and avoid war and a de facto peace settles over the region, though no formal peace treaties are signed.

Whether Syria on its own tries another against Syria depends IMO on what happens in Syria politically: if things happen like IOTL I don’t think Assad will risk a war against Israel alone that could potentially endanger his regime, but if https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salah_Jadid wins the post-1966 power struggle against Assad, Syria radicalizes, moves even closer to the Soviet Union and prepares to at it alone against Israel a second time as Jadid comes across as the sort of ideological true believer crazy enough to try something like that.
actually a year ago i started writing a TL about the War over Water escalating but never went far with it
 
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