Disaster at D-Day 1943, then what?

Dorozhand

Banned
What if the Western Allies had attempted D-Day in 1943 and it ended in a worst-case scenario dismal failure, with no beachhead established, very heavy casualties, and failure to totally establish air supremacy.

Starting from that scenario, what happens next? When will the Western Allies again be in a position to open up a second front, what will they try to do in the meantime, how much better will Germany's position in the west, south, and east be going into 1944, and what will this mean for the Soviets and Japanese?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
It wouldn't.

What if the Western Allies had attempted D-Day in 1943 and it ended in a worst-case scenario dismal failure, with no beachhead established, very heavy casualties, and failure to totally establish air supremacy.

Starting from that scenario, what happens next? When will the Western Allies again be in a position to open up a second front, what will they try to do in the meantime, how much better will Germany's position in the west, south, and east be going into 1944, and what will this mean for the Soviets and Japanese?

D-Day - in 1943, 1944, or 1944 - was the greatest sure thing in military planning in WW II.

The Axis NEVER defeated an Allied amphibious operation planned to take and hold territory; the one that even comes close is, potentially, Dakar (MENACE) in 1940, and that was planned as an administrative landing, as were the British operations in the Dodecanese in 1943.

Best,
 

TFSmith121

Banned
No.

Wasn't Salerno a fairly close-run affair?

No. The Allies landed three infantry divisions, with a fourth to follow, reinforced by two airborne regiments dropped on sucessful nights into the beachhead administratively.

It was essentially an ad hoc operation conducted at maximum range of tactical air cover from Sicily, and the Allies still won.

Best,
 
No. The Allies landed three infantry divisions, with a fourth to follow, reinforced by two airborne regiments dropped on sucessful nights into the beachhead administratively.

It was essentially an ad hoc operation conducted at maximum range of tactical air cover from Sicily, and the Allies still won.

Best,

Hmm. Most accounts I read in the far-distant past left me with the impression the Allies teetered on the edge of defeat for awhile before the situation stabilized. I don't claim my reading list on the subject was exhaustive or even up to date, however, so I will take your word for it. :)
 

Dorozhand

Banned
D-Day - in 1943, 1944, or 1944 - was the greatest sure thing in military planning in WW II.

The Axis NEVER defeated an Allied amphibious operation planned to take and hold territory; the one that even comes close is, potentially, Dakar (MENACE) in 1940, and that was planned as an administrative landing, as were the British operations in the Dodecanese in 1943.

Best,

From reading the most recent thread on D-Day 1943 I got the impression that it would have likely been a disaster. You seem awfully overconfident in the allied ability to win flawlessly no matter what, even if there weren't enough troops, the Atlantic War was still raging, air supremacy would have been more difficult to achieve, Germany would have been in a better position to counter it, etc.
 
From reading the most recent thread on D-Day 1943 I got the impression that it would have likely been a disaster.

You obviously didn't read them very closely then, as every single recent D-Day 1943 thread has concluded that it would be a success even greater than OTL's.
 

Dorozhand

Banned
D-Day - in 1943, 1944, or 1944 - was the greatest sure thing in military planning in WW II.

The Axis NEVER defeated an Allied amphibious operation planned to take and hold territory; the one that even comes close is, potentially, Dakar (MENACE) in 1940, and that was planned as an administrative landing, as were the British operations in the Dodecanese in 1943.

Best,

Wait a minute, I think you yourself were also talking about how unprepared the allies were. Was there some kind of 180 shift of opinion somewhere later in the thread?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Well, if:

From reading the most recent thread on D-Day 1943 I got the impression that it would have likely been a disaster. You seem awfully overconfident in the allied ability to win flawlessly no matter what, even if there weren't enough troops, the Atlantic War was still raging, air supremacy would have been more difficult to achieve, Germany would have been in a better position to counter it, etc.
  • there weren't enough troops,
  • the Atlantic War was still raging,
  • air supremacy would have been more difficult to achieve, and
  • Germany would have been in a better position to counter it,
How likely is it the Allies mount the operation? Far easier ways to commit suicide, correct?

That's the thing about offensives; the combatants mounting the attack can chose to do so or not, can't they?

Best,
 

TFSmith121

Banned
It makes for a dramatic story, but no;

Hmm. Most accounts I read in the far-distant past left me with the impression the Allies teetered on the edge of defeat for awhile before the situation stabilized. I don't claim my reading list on the subject was exhaustive or even up to date, however, so I will take your word for it. :)


It makes for a dramatic story, but no; AVALANCHE (Salerno) was more of a success than SHINGLE (Anzio), and the SHINGLE expeditionary force - although contained by the German 14th Army for about four months - was never in danger of being driven away.

Best,
 
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TFSmith121

Banned
Nope

Wait a minute, I think you yourself were also talking about how unprepared the allies were. Was there some kind of 180 shift of opinion somewhere later in the thread?

Nope, not me. I think odds are very much in favor of a 1943 invasion of NW France, and that it would have led to a German surrender in 1944.

Best,
 
The Sledgehammer operation earlier in '43 would surely have been a disaster. Roundup, later that year would likely have succeeded, but I doubt highly that it would have been nearly as successful as some of the fanbois here think.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
SLEDGEHAMMER was the planned limited operation in '42

The Sledgehammer operation earlier in '43 would surely have been a disaster. Roundup, later that year would likely have succeeded, but I doubt highly that it would have been nearly as successful as some of the fanbois here think.

SLEDGEHAMMER was the planned limited operation in '42.

Best,
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Because in 1942, the British were more concerned

If D-Day in 1943 would've been such a striking success, why didn't the Allies do it?

Because in 1942, the British were more concerned about the Mediterranean, and the US - frustrated that the Germany first strategy, which they understood as just that and the British did not - chose to engage in multiple counteroffensives against the Japanese in the South Pacific, Southwest Pacific, and North Pacific after Midway.

There was a lot of peripheralism, essentially, which took the focus away from the most militarily and economically powerful of the Axis powers in favor of sideshows, from Italy to Burma to New Guinea to the Solomons.

Germany was the the greatest threat; the shortest road to Germany from the UK is via northwestern Europe, particularly France and Belgium.

Japan was the second greatest threat, as the only one of the three major Axis powers with a navy and merchant marine capable of threatening vital Allied interests; the quickest way to the Home Islands was via the Central Pacific.

Naturally, rather than focusing on liberating France and driving west through Micronesia to the Philippines, in 1942-43, the Allies:

a) attacked the Solomon Islands;
b) attacked northeast New Guinea;
c) attacked the Arakan;
d) attacked the French in North Africa;
e) attacked the Aleutians;
f) attacked the Italians in Sicily;
g) attacked the Germans in Italy;
h) attacked the Germans in the Aegean;
i) attacked the Japanese in Burma, again;
j) attacked western New Guinea;

Before finally, in November, 1943, began the Central Pacific drive and then, in the winter of 1943-44, began moving to actually land in France in 1944.

Eleven months after the Allies landed in France, of course, Germany surrendered.

Best,
 
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The original theme was what would happen if a -43 Overlord failed, not if it would be feasible.

That thread, I think, has been done to death.

Maybe we should look at Ike's 'alternative' speech as the first port of departure?

'Failure' is a hard one to define, but if we look at the Allied being defeated on the beaches it is diffierent from having sunk the fleet carrying the divisions.

Obviously it would take some time before US/UK would have a go at it again, but the major impact might just be in the East.

... But we are re-booting the 'other' thread I think.

Ivan
 
It makes for a dramatic story, but no; AVALANCHE (Salerno) was more of a success than SHINGLE (Anzio), and the SHINGLE expeditionary force - although contained by the German 14th Army for about four months - was never in danger of being driven away.

Best,

Really?

AVALANCHE was not an ad-hoc landing (although SLAPSTICK at Taranto might qualify), and the Army commander considering evacuating his headquarters makes it a close run thing in my book.

SHINGLE did come close to defeat with the Allies being driven back to the Final Beachhead Line during Operation Fischfang.
 
Hmm. Most accounts I read in the far-distant past left me with the impression the Allies teetered on the edge of defeat for awhile before the situation stabilized. I don't claim my reading list on the subject was exhaustive or even up to date, however, so I will take your word for it. :)

I don't think the Allies were really facing defeat but the commanders definitely panicked. Mark Clark considered evacuating but remember that it was Mark Clark.

Also remember that the extermely intelligent Allied high command told their soldiers on the troopships that Italy had surrendered and so led them to believe that they would step off the landing craft and be greeted by flowers. There was no preparatory bombardment and the troops came ashore expecting a victory parade but got a mouthful of German lead.
 
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