Death in Tehran - A Successful Operation Long Jump TL

[Thanosaekk]

[Here is a small chapter on the US elections. I am not that knowledgeable on 40's US politics, so maybe there are some mistakes. Feel free to provide some constructive criticism]

Chapter 11 - The 1944 United States Presidential Elections

Henry A. Wallace had been president for almost a year, and the most critical moment of his presidency was arriving: the elections.

Wallace was never particularly popular amongst the prominent conservative members of the Democratic Party. However, due to the sympathy for him after Roosevelt’s assassination and his wild success during his tenure as POTUS, he was still popular to many Democratic members. Additionally, he had managed to sway Latin America to the Allied side in the war, and was popular with the people, especially in rural areas. His main opposition were the Southern Democrats, who were opposed to many of his ideas. Wallace was also a supporter of ending segregation and friendlier relations with the USSR, making him even less popular with the South.

Claude D. Pepper, Wallace's Vice Presidential candidate​

In the 1940 Democratic National Convention, it seemed like Wallace would face little opposition. He was progressive and a war-time president with incredible diplomatic success, as well as military success with Overlord, Anvil and more. There was the question of who would be his Vice President, and for that position he chose Claude Denson Pepper, a friend of his and a liberal. However, the Southern Democrats consolidated around a single candidate for the Convention: Senator Harry F. Byrd, from Virginia. Byrd was strongly opposed to the New Deal and Roosevelt, and watching Wallace continue his legacy into the late 40’s would be too much. So Byrd became the only candidate opposing Wallace in the convention. And he lost.

Harry F. Byrd, the main opponent of Wallace in the Democratic National Convention.​

Despite intense campaigning efforts, Wallace won in a landslide. This further reinforced Wallace’s popularity in the more progressive citizens of the U.S., who saw Byrd as old-fashioned, ultra-conservative and pro-segregation.

The Democratic National Convention was not the only one with a clear result, as the same was true for the Republicans. Following Wallace’s inauguration as POTUS, there was a strong backlash by the conservatives led by Robert A. Taft, who was the leader of the Republican conservatives and was opposed to Roosevelt’s domestic policies as well as his foreign policy, being an anti-internationalist. Taft was easily chosen as the Presidential Candidate in the Convention, and his Vice Presidential candidate was Arthur Vandenberg; a fellow conservative who could mostly agree with Taft, aside from future foreign policy.

Arthur Vandenberg, the Republican Vice Presidential candidate.​

So, as the 1944 elections were approaching, the ideological opposition of the two candidates, Wallace and Taft, was more than clear. There were rumours for a third party led by the anti-New Deal Democrats, but they were never confirmed. Both sides campaigned intensely, and it seemed as if the results would be very close. However, the results came in, and the election had resulted in a much more comfortable victory for Wallace.

Wallace had won, only losing a few states in New England and some other areas, and now had four more years as POTUS ahead of him. Many people celebrated his victory. Additionally, there was also joy in Europe that Taft, who was opposed to internationalism, the United Nations and support to their nations lost. Wallace had overcome a big hurdle, and could now continue as the leader of a global superpower and finally end the war, continuing Roosevelt’s legacy.

 

[glenn67]

Taft and Bricker are both from Ohio. They cannot be on the same ticket. A more appropriate running mate would be Arthur Vandenburg or Styles Bridges.

Also, the southern states would never vote for a Republican even against a popular wartime President. Taft would win Ohio and most likely upper New England. It is also possible that unpledged electors could win a few southern states.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Taft and Bricker are both from Ohio. They cannot be on the same ticket. A more appropriate running mate would be Arthur Vandenburg or Styles Bridges.

Also, the southern states would never vote for a Republican even against a popular wartime President. Taft would win Ohio and most likely upper New England. It is also possible that unpledged electors could win a few southern states.

Ahh... I guess that's what I get when I try to write about US politics when I am not from there... Anyway, I'll fix some stuff and change the Republican ticket.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Okay, I put Vandenberg as the VP candidate for the Republicans instead of Bricker and made some minor edits. I hope it's more plausible now.

 

[Eonex]

Taft and Bricker are both from Ohio. They cannot be on the same ticket. A more appropriate running mate would be Arthur Vandenburg or Styles Bridges.

Also, the Southern states would never vote for a Republican even against a popular wartime President. Taft would win Ohio and most likely upper New England. It is also possible that unpledged electors could win a few Southern states.

Sorry, I'm also not from the US, but does that means as long as the President and Vice President don't share their state, they can be picked from anywhere? And this only applies to the Democrat Party or all US parties?

Btw, where are you from, @Thanosaekk?

 

[Deleted member 2186]

My first responds in this thread is saying i like it @Thanosaekk and keep up the good work.

 

[Thanosaekk]

My first responds in this thread is saying i like it @Thanosaekk and keep up the good work.

Thanks! Btw, the next chapter will be on some interesting developments in the Eastern Front.

 

[sloreck]

@Eonex : The President and Vice President have no restrictions on where they can be from - the same state, same region, whatever. Traditionally, especially in modern times, one "balances" the ticket by trying to get candidates from not only different states but different regions - example Pres: Northeast, VP: Midwest. The concept behind this is that by getting (hopefully) popular politicians from different regions you increase the strength of the ticket.

 

[Bookmark1995]

This is really, really good. Are you just going to cover the war, or are you going to expand into post-war geopolitics as well.

 

[Thanosaekk]

This is really, really good. Are you just going to cover the war, or are you going to expand into post-war geopolitics as well.

I will definitely cover post-war, there will be many interesting stuff to write about.

 

[Chu-ko-nu]

I’m curious about what happens to China — without a Stalin who saw Mao as a possibility, albeit an incredibly unlikely one, the new Soviet triumvirate is more likely to hand power over to the KMT. This WWII POD has great potential for Asia and Africa.

 

[Eonex]

I’m curious about what happens to China — without a Stalin who saw Mao as a possibility, albeit an incredibly unlikely one, the new Soviet triumvirate is more likely to hand power over to the KMT. This WWII POD has great potential for Asia and Africa.

I see you like China too

 

[Thanosaekk]

I’m curious about what happens to China — without a Stalin who saw Mao as a possibility, albeit an incredibly unlikely one, the new Soviet triumvirate is more likely to hand power over to the KMT. This WWII POD has great potential for Asia and Africa.

What will happen in China depends a lot on the Pacific Theater and how it will end, and a chapter on that is coming soon.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Chapter 12 - The Red Tide

The Red Army continued trying to push the Axis back with everything they had. It was now autumn, and soon winter would come, giving the Soviets opportunities for counter-offensives against the Germans. There were three different options that were discussed by Soviet generals as to where the main offensive in October-November should be focused: the first was to go north. During Operation Brusilov, an attempt at cutting off the German forces in the Baltic was made, but failed. The Panther-Wotan line, which was only really built in the north, also helped fight off Russian incursions. Therefore, the supporters of this offensive argued that it could help cut off the well-defended troops and diminish German power on the front. It could also provide a route to invading East Prussia.

The second option, which seemed to be quite popular, was an offensive south. The Romanian government seemed to be close to coming to terms, and a strong offensive over the Dniester and into Bessarabia and Moldavia would further pressure them. This attack would also make a future invasion of the Balkans possible.

Finally, the third option was called the “direct hit”. This plan called for a colossal attack on the level of Brusilov against Army Group Center, crushing their forces and breaking through the Polish plains. This was the most direct route to Berlin and Germany proper.

Eventually, after much discussion and the intervention of Zhukov, who as a member of the Triumvirate had the final say, a decision was made. During October, the main focus would be on bringing down Romania, with a secondary attack in the Baltic. Preparations lasted for most of September and early October, and on the 12th of October, the Dniester Offensive was launched.

A Panther Tank in Romania soon after the start of the Dniester Offensive.​

Despite the geographical advantage of the Germans who were behind a river, the Soviets managed to break through at several points over the Dniester, forcing Army Group South to order a withdrawal. Due to this order which was not authorized by Hitler, Hermann Balck, a generally competent commander, was replaced and given command of an armored division in Southern France. He was replaced by Walter Model, who had actually seen some success as commander of Army Group North.

Walter Model, the new commander of Army Group South.​

While Hitler believed this to be a good move, there were still disagreements in the Wehrmacht, and now was not the best time for making radical changes in the commanders and structure of the army. The situation got even worse in October 19, as Soviet tanks were rolling in Moldavia. That morning, King Michael contacted many prominent pro-Allied politicians. While the move was seen as suspicious, no fascists acted. Prime Minister Ion Antonescu, who was very supportive of the Axis, was arrested that evening on the order of King Michael I. It was an unexpected move, as no one expected the 22-year old King who was seen as a figurehead to exercise his power.

Michael immediately appointed Constantin Sănătescu as the new Prime Minister and instructed him to form a government. Meanwhile, he contacted the USSR for peace terms. Of course, the Nazis would not simply let Romania switch sides, and so Operation Orkan was launched in response. The 17th Army, still led by Ferdinand Schörner following the battle in the Crimea a few months ago, had been guarding major cities in Romania since then, and so immediately opened fire against any Romanian troops. The small urban gunfights escalated to battles, and more German troops entered Romania to intervene. Horia Sima, a former Iron Guard member who had been exiled after the suppression of the Guard in ‘41, returned after German pressure and established a rival, pro-Nazi government in Craiova. The Romanian Civil War had officially begun.

Horia Sima, the leader of the German puppet Romanian Legionary State.​

While Germany was distracted with the quickly unfolding events in Romania, the Soviets found a perfect opportunity to launch the secondary attack in the Baltic Sea. The initial attack was aimed at recapturing Riga, and was successful. The capital of Latvia was captured in October 23. From there, two attacks were further made: one to the east, to advance towards Courland and Lithuania, and one to the north, to seize Estonia. Estonia had seen many failed Soviet offensives during the last year, and the Wehrmacht, as well as some Estonian collaborators, were holding the line well.

While the forces heading for Courland and Lithuania were soon stopped, as the Soviets were now too spread out, the forces heading North put the “Narwa” Army in a difficult position. All this time, they had managed to defend using the Panther-Wotan Line, but now the enemy was attacking from behind. Soon, the Narwa Army and AG North commander Johannes Frießner were evacuated. The ships were relentlessly attacked by the enemy navy and air force, causing heavy losses.

Meanwhile, the Romanian Civil War continued. The two factions had consolidated, with the pro-Allied Kingdom of Romania against the pro-Axis Romanian Legionary State, which started becoming more friendly to former Iron Guard members and generally adopted Legionary names and imagery. For now, both sides were quite disorganized. The Fascists had mostly control of cities other than Bucharest which was firmly under Royalist control. However, after German intervention, a more firm was established by the Fascists mostly in Wallachia.

Another important factor was the Soviets. The Red Army initially continued advancing while negotiations were continuing. Andrey Vyshinsky was sent to conduct negotiations with the Royalist government, and in October 31 the Soviet-Romanian Armistice was signed: All pro-Axis officials would have to be fired from the government, Bessarabia was to be given back to the USSR, while the parts of Transylvania owned by Hungary would be returned to Romania. Additionally, there was a part about Red Army forces remaining in the country “as long as its sovereignty was threatened”. This essentially meant that the Red Army could continue operating in Romania, and also allowed an easy loophole for them to remain after the war. The Fascist government obviously denounced the treaty.

The Romanian Civil War continued, and both the Wehrmacht and the Red Army were expanding their occupation zones in the poor Romanian nation. This only seemed to be a minor delay for the inevitable Soviet onslaught, which was coming, and it was coming soon.

 

[Chu-ko-nu]

Interesting. Maybe Romania will get a better deal than IOTL.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Interesting. Maybe Romania will get a better deal than IOTL.

The armistice terms were approximately the same as OTL: Romania losses Bessarabia, but gains Northern Transylvania, while the Red Army is allowed to stay and help. But with a more lenient Soviet leadership, post-war Romania may or may not fall in the communist sphere of influence.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Chapter 13 - The Red Tide pt.2

The Romanian Civil War had become a significant obstacle to a Soviet invasion of the Balkans. By the start of November, the Royalist government had control of Eastern Wallachia and nominally Moldavia, which was under Soviet occupation. The Fascists had control of Western Wallachia and also held on to Transylvania, where German, Hungarian and Romanian troops and militia were defending the Carpathian mountains. After a Stavka meeting which was attended by some Romanian commanders, a general strategy for the Allied side was decided: Wallachia was to be cleared of Axis forces by the Royalists, to allow attacks into Bulgaria, Serbia and the rest of the Balkans. Transylvania would be invaded by the Soviets, who would have to face mountains and irregular warfare, but also had the numerical advantage, as well as aerial superiority.

And so, in early November, the plan to root out fascist forces in Romania began. A new attack by the Royalist Army, which had been reorganized after defections to the fascists, was successful in breaking through in Wallachia. Soviet and British air support were also critical. A pocket held fanatically by troops of the German 17th Army in Ploiesti was also destroyed, allowing access to the oil fields there. That did not occur before the Germans burned as much as they could, though. Despite this setback, the campaign continued with the aim of capturing Craiova, the provisional capital of the Fascists.

An oil refinery in Ploiesti burning following its destruction by German troops.​

The city of Craiova was approached on November 14. Sima’s government had prepared extensive defenses in the almost one month period of civil war, and planned to defend the city at all costs. Despite these proud statements made by Sima, however, the Battle of Craiova ended within 9 days in a Royalist victory. Now, the Legionary State was in chaos. Sima fled the town, but was captured during his escape to Cluj by Royalist militia who killed him right there and then. This left the leadership vacant, since most ex-Iron Guard members had been executed, exiled or imprisoned. Germany began to take matters into their own hands even more, managing everything in parts of Romania still held by the Axis and only using the Legionary State as a way of gaining legitimacy.

Transylvania was now the last stronghold of the Germans in the area, and it seemed like it would be that way for a couple more months, as Soviet advances were difficult. Furthermore, to “ensure the loyalty of their allies”, Germany meddled with the affairs of Hungary. On November 26, soon after the end of the Battle of Craiova, Miklós Horthy was arrested by German troops. The ultimatum handed to him was simple: place a pro-Nazi official as the Prime Minister, or be executed. With no other choice, Horthy placed Hungarian ambassador to Germany Döme Sztójay as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the entire country was occupied by the Wehrmacht. Hungary was now firmly on the Axis camp.

Döme Sztójay, the new Prime Minister of Hungary.​

Unfortunately for Hitler, no matter how hard he tried to keep the Balkans under his control, the Red Tide was inevitable. On the night of November 30, the Bulgarian Army received a report that Soviet forces had crossed the Danube into their country. It was seen as a mistake, as Bulgaria wasn’t at war with the USSR. But as it became clear that an invasion was actually happening, there was nothing to do but fight back.

The Bulgarian army, despite its best efforts, just wasn’t prepared for a Soviet invasion. Even though a German army, the reformed 17th, immediately came to Bulgaria’s aid. The Bulgarian government itself seemed loyal to the Axis, but the people, especially the communists, wished to overthrow it. The country was ruled by Tsar Simeon II, but given he was 7 years old the real power was in the hands of three regents: Simeon’s uncle Prince Kyril, PM Bogdan Filov, and Lt. Gen. Nikola Mikhov. All three were equally loyal, but the Prince was assassinated by communists due to his royal title, leaving power to Filov and Mikhov. The Germans supported the Regency, hoping they were able to stabilize the nation, but they failed.

In December 8, a revolt broke out in Sofia with the Red Army near. The revolt was led by the communists, who forced the Tsar and the two regents to flee to Germany, where they established a government-in-exile in Vienna. By December 13, Bulgaria had folded. A coalition of communists and republicans were placed in power, and immediately signed peace with the USSR. Now, the road was open for new Soviet attacks into Yugoslavia and Greece.

Damyan Velchev, the new Prime Minister of Bulgaria.​

The advance in these areas was expected to be easy: in Yugoslavia, the administration set up three and a half years ago was slowly collapsing under the pressure of the Partisans, the Chetniks and the PFO (Patriotic Front for Liberation). Meanwhile, in Greece, there were equally many and active resistance groups. However, Model’s Army Group South, for all the operations it had been engaged in, was still powerful and was considered the largest German army group.

As December passed by, the fierce German defense in the general region of Macedonia barely continued. Thankfully for the Nazis, this had also allowed their occupation forces in Greece to withdraw, leaving the Peloponnese by the 20th, and Athens by the 22nd. By Christmas, the first successful Soviet attacks in the Vardar area occurred, and the slow push northwards began. A rather unexpected factor was the Western Allies; all this time, they had been fighting in Italy and France, and it was now time for their next amphibious invasion aimed at liberation, this time, in the Balkans.

 

[generalurist]

So Germany has withdrawn from Greece. I wonder in what way if any the change in allied leadership will change how they treat the country?

 

[Thanosaekk]

So Germany has withdrawn from Greece. I wonder in what way if any the change in allied leadership will change how they treat the country?

There will be some butterflies that will affect the Greek Civil War and post-war Greece in general. Here, Churchill is dead so Britain might be less worried about the country, and there is also a more moderate Soviet leadership, so there will definitely be some interesting events.

 

[Thanosaekk]

[I realized I mentioned the Patriotic Front for Liberation in the previous chapter without explaining what it actually was. Well, it's butterflies in Yugoslavia due to no Tehran Conference. Here's some stuff on it:]

Interlude 4

RESISTANCE IN YUGOSLAVIA STRIKES BACK
The Daily Telegraph, 1 December 1944

Draža Mihailovic, founder of the Patriotic Front for Liberation.​

The resistance in Yugoslavia has been active ever since the nation’s occupation three and a half years ago, but has recently seen major disagreements between many resistance leaders and groups. The two main groups, the Partisans and the Chetniks, have opposing goals and often fight between them. However, there is promise for a more democratic movement in Yugoslavia with the creation of the Patriotic Front for Liberation (Патриотски фронт за Oслобођење).

There was disagreement in the British government since 1943 on which side of the Yugoslav resistance should be supported. The Chetniks were nationalists with allegiance to the government-in-exile, but occasionally collaborated with the Axis, while the Partisans were communists. There was never an agreement by the Big Three for who should be supported since the Tehran Conference was abruptly stopped. Today, however, it seems that this dilemma is solved with a third group: the Patriotic Front for Liberation. The group was declared by Draža Mihailovic in a radio address, and is intended to be a royalist group with democratic ideas, wanting a constitutional monarchy. It immediately gained the recognition of the Yugoslav government-in-exile and London.

Mihailovic also said that anyone collaborating or with links to collaborators in the group will be immediately executed. This has led to many officers remaining in the now much weaker Chetniks. However, the Patriotic Front is also facing problems with lack of manpower and equipment. Hopefully they will be resolved with the arrival of Allied support.