Death in Tehran - A Successful Operation Long Jump TL

[Thanosaekk]

Hello! This is my first proper timeline here, so constructive criticism on the scenario and its plausibility is greatly appreciated. As for the timeline itself, some notes:

Firstly, I know that whether Operation Long Jump in OTL even existed is debated by historians. For the purpose of this TL, it exists and is successful.

Secondly, the way the assassination is carried out doesn’t matter, since it would be nearly impossible to carry out. Think of it as a combination of incredible luck and skill by the members who carried it out. Anyway, it doesn’t matter for the scenario.

Finally, the timeline will focus mainly on the developments in the rest of the Second World War, as well as the post-war era. I hope you will all enjoy it!

Chapter 1 - Tremendous Success

28 November 1943, Soviet Embassy in Tehran

Hundreds of NKVD guards were spread across the city and were concentrated around the Soviet embassy to protect three of the most important figures in the world, including their leader Joseph Stalin. However, not all of them had the same allegiance. Between them, there were four secret agents: picked by SS officer Otto Skorzeny, they had been training all day and night for this mission, even if they knew they would have to sacrifice their lives.

It was afternoon, and the three world leaders were in the Embassy, discussing about the war, as this was the Tehran Conference after all. At six o’clock, it is not known what exactly the three leaders were discussing but it probably revolved around the policy regarding Iran. However, they would not keep discussing for long. Soon, a still unnamed soldier of the 502nd SS Jäger Battalion undercover as an NKVD guard in the room took action, and the first gunfire was what signaled that all hell was about to break loose.

The simple fact that he and the other three had managed to infiltrate the NKVD on such a high-profile conference seemed near impossible. The training process was brutal, and included learning Russian and handling NKVD equipment. The first gunshot was from the unknown SS soldier was aimed at Joseph Stalin. The Man of Steel was obviously the first target, as he was the leader of the biggest threat to Germany, the war machine that was the USSR. Before anyone could react to the loud gunshot, the bullet had pierced through Stalin’s heart, and it was clear that he had no chance of surviving. The SS soldier also immediately tried to shoot Churchill, and he succeeded, although it was not known if that was the fatal shot. He was shot by another NKVD guard before continuing.

The three leaders immediately tried to take cover, but with Stalin and Churchill shot and Roosevelt unable to walk that was difficult. Before the surrounding guards could protect them, Churchill and Roosevelt each had received a fatal shot by two other SS.

Amidst the chaos, the agents tried to escape. While they obviously knew that this was almost definitely a suicide mission, they had nothing to lose at this point from trying. The first of the assassins had already been killed, and another was shot fatally while trying to escape through a crowd of guards. However, the two others managed to exit the building. One of them was lost forever, never to be seen, but the last remaining assassin managed to escape through unconventional means, aka running into a window. He was able to bypass the guards by running through the garden and meeting with Otto Skorzeny, who was stationed nearby to transmit and receive information on the mission. Skorzeny issued a laconic statement to the Abwehr: “Unternehmen Weitsprung war ein Erfolg”. They would have to escape Iran, but with the entire country being under Allied occupation, that would be quite the challenge.

29 November 1943, somewhere in Mazandaran Province, over the Alborz mountains

Skorzeny and the SS soldier got off the car dressed in civilian clothing. No one but their Iranian friends would recognize them, so the only danger was the Red Army occupation forces, but there didn’t seem to be many of them, and as long as they left quickly everything would be good.

As per the plan, right near the coast a Messerschmitt Bf 110 was waiting, guarded by Iranians loyal to the German cause. The two men approached it and boarded it. The plane took off from the Iranian plain, heading west. The plan was to cross the Middle East, the Black Sea, and land somewhere in Bulgaria or Romania, before the fuel ran out in the airplane. However, the plan was assuming they were not intercepted by Allied aircraft.

 

[starman]

From what I've read, the allies had been forewarned by ULTRA of Long Jump and apprehended the agents parachuted near Tehran at the prearranged coordinates. Only one guy wasn't eliminated immediately.
A key problem was that by late '43 everyone knew the reich was sinking to defeat so it was tough to get the local people to back a losing horse--by helping with such a scheme.

 

[Thanosaekk]

From what I've read, the allies had been forewarned by ULTRA of Long Jump and apprehended the agents parachuted near Tehran at the prearranged coordinates. Only one guy wasn't eliminated immediately.

That is what the Soviets have claimed happened, but some historians claim the whole plan was made up by the Soviets to get FDR to stay in a bugged guest room in the Embassy. Anyway, it doesn't matter for the story.

A key problem was that by late '43 everyone knew the reich was sinking to defeat so it was tough to get the local people to back a losing horse--by helping with such a scheme.

That is true, but there were still some hardcore Nazi sympathizers in Iran, and there was also a large Nazi spy network in Tehran that allowed the plan to be carried out.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Chapter 2 - A Day of Mourning / The New Leaders

The news of the assassination in Tehran, as it had occurred in the afternoon (local Iranian time), were quickly leaked in the nations of the Allies and by the time sun set on the day of the assassination, the vast majority of the people had been informed. So as not to cause panic and unrest in the people of their nations, the governments of the Big Three stayed silent regarding the rumors. Initially, this sparked some disbelief in the story of the assassination, since no government had confirmed that. However, as the morning of the 29th of November came, they would have to address it.

In the USSR, the people didn’t know what to do. Should they believe the rumors or not? The government of the Soviet Union had not announced anything. In fact, nobody knew who was ruling anymore or what they were doing. The army had to continue fighting, but the government was in chaos. There were four main contenders to take leadership in the USSR: the first was Lavrentiy Beria, head of the NKVD, who had accumulated power through the secret police and was known to be particularly fierce. The second was Georgy Zhukov, a major commander in the Eastern Front with some support in the Red Army. The third was Vyacheslav Molotov, the well-known Soviet diplomat who was actually present during the assassination, and escaped with only one bullet grazing past him. Finally, the fourth candidate was Georgy Malenkov, who was a member of the State Defense Committee, a small group with total control of many parts of life in the USSR.

Therefore, while the state funeral was being organized and Stalin’s body was showcased near the Kremlin, an internal power struggle was taking place. Beria was in a bad position, with a brutal reputation, practically no popular support, and many enemies. During the first days of collective leadership, the three other main contenders conspired to take him down, and soon he was sent to a desolate gulag. For now, a triumvirate between Zhukov, Molotov and Malenkov would be enough for the USSR to survive and the war to continue, but it would be a lie to say there wasn’t instability in the government. Despite the power struggle, one thing that could be agreed on was the punishment of NKVD officers, and specifically Gevork Vartanian, for failing to protect the Big Three. They were obviously fired from the secret police and were sent to gulags in North Siberia.

The Triumvirate of the USSR. From left to right, Malenkov, Zhukov and Molotov.​

While in the USSR a complex power struggle was unfolding, the situation in the USA was much simpler. As per the line of succession, Henry A. Wallace, the Vice President of Franklin D. Roosevelt, simply took the position of President until elections would be held almost one year later. He already had the support of many people, especially farmers, even though he was not that popular amongst the prominent members of the Democratic Party. However, his popularity skyrocketed with a radio address he made on the 29th, the day after the assassination of the Big Three. During this famous radio address, he mourned the death of three great leaders but also called for the nation and all the Allies to join forces and destroy the evil forces of the Axis, who were so harsh and brutal that they would go as far as killing the Big Three, all of them beloved leaders.

Henry A. Wallace, the 33rd President of the United States​

With Wallace in the USA and an unstable triumvirate in the USSR, the UK would also have to make a decision as to who would replace Churchill as Prime Minister. With the last assassination of a British PM being back in the 19th century, the process had never really been thoroughly analyzed should it happen. In the end, after a heated parliament debate on the 29th and the intervention of the King, Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden was chosen as the Prime Minister. Everyone in the United Kingdom, its Empire and its Dominions mourned that day, and a state funeral was held as soon as possible. This made him one of the very few non-royal family members to have a state funeral in the UK (others who had this honour were Neuton, Nelson, Wellington and more).

Anthony Eden, the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom​

However, there was one nation that wasn’t sad about any of the three losses: Nazi Germany. Despite most considering the turning point in the war to have already passed, celebrations were held across the country for the success of Unternehmen Weitsprung, and Skorzeny was welcomed to Berlin as a national hero. The journey from Tehran was a difficult one, and he was almost shot down while travelling by a Soviet fighter in the Black Sea. Despite that, he succeeded, arriving safe and sound in rural Romania. He was awarded the Knight’s Cross with Oak Leaves, Swords and Diamonds, the highest level of military decoration at the time, by Hitler himself. As for the other SS soldier who survived the operation, what happened to him is not known.

There was also a small backlash from resistance fighters due to the assassination, mainly in France and occupied territories in the east, but that was quickly put down by the SS troops there. Now, the Wehrmacht was quickly preparing to strike back while the political climate of the Allied powers was unstable and morale had reached the bottom. And they would strike back hard. Whether they would succeed or not was a different matter.

 

[Shahanshah of Xsassa]

Now I see something really interesting. You have just removed ten years of Joseph Stalin's rule over the Soviet Union.

 

[Changundramon]

A way to make the operation plausible would be to have some of the assassins be ethnic Ukrainians. They would handle Russian faster, and would be motivated to get a shot at their arch-enemy.

 

[Thanosaekk]

A way to make the operation plausible would be to have some of the assassins be ethnic Ukrainians. They would handle Russian faster, and would be motivated to get a shot at their arch-enemy.

That is actually a very good idea. There were definitely Waffen-SS conscripts from Ukraine, Belarus and the Lokot Autonomy that could help with that. Maybe I'll add something related to the assassins later on.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Chapter 3 - Counter-attacks

As winter began to set in, the Wehrmacht, seeing the recent Soviet instability and failure to conduct large-scale strategic operations, decided to launch a limited counter-attack. Obviously, as it was early December, the Soviets would have an advantage due to the cold weather. However, there was hope that the problems with the Red Army and disagreements of the Triumvirate members would allow limited German success. Recently, the Battle of the Dnieper had ended in a Soviet victory. Although no major-scale breakthroughs had happened, bridgeheads were established over the river Dnieper, ending any possibility of the Wehrmacht organizing a defense line there. Additionally, Kiev, a major Soviet city, had been liberated, and Crimea was cut off from the rest of the German-occupied territories.

The plans laid out focused mostly on the south, with the intention of stabilizing the situation and preventing further Soviet advances, with the possibility of a counter-offensive. On the 6th of December, as the situation in the USSR was still unsure, the renewed artillery bombardment in North Ukraine marked the beginning of a serious German counter-attack. Hermann Balck’s forces, the 47th Panzer Corps, had recently recaptured Zhytomyr, ensuring some breathing space for the Germans there. The counter-attack was aimed at recapturing Kiev, and already by the 7th of December parts of the western outskirts of the city had been brought under Axis control once again. However, the numerical superiority of the Red Army coupled with the unforgiving weather resulted in the counter-offensive only reaching that far. The Second Battle of Kiev would rage on for all of December, until late January when the Soviets would finally manage to consolidate their hold over Kiev, Zhytomyr and the surrounding regions.

The extent to which the Second Battle of Kiev helped the Germans and delayed their, at that point, inevitable defeat, is debatable. On the one hand, it inflicted casualties and significantly delayed the winter counter-offensives in Ukraine until later in 1944, and made them weaker as well. On the other hand, the Wehrmacht also faced huge losses during the battle, which was detrimental for them in the final stages of the military campaigns in the region.

Other than the winter battles raging in Ukraine, there was also limited action in Army Group Center as a result of Weitsprung. During November, the Red Army had made limited counter-attacks, which resulted in relatively small advances in two points, near Nevel and to the South, between Army Groups Center and South. The salient near Nevel was held by Chibisov’s 3rd Shock Army against the 3. Panzerarmee, and despite the fact the Germans wished to encircle it, the operation was not feasible. However, after the success of Long Jump, attempts were made to do just that. The Germans may had the high ground in morale, but not in numbers, and all that was achieved was casualties for Army Group Center.

Troops of the 3rd Shock Army launching a limited counter-offensive in the Nevel Salient, December 1941​

To the North, the Germans were also facing problems, especially after a significant number of troops was assigned to the counter-offensives mentioned previously. Things remained quiet in December, but as the new year of 1944 came, a major offensive by the Soviets drove back the Wehrmacht, forcing them to withdraw to the Panther-Wotan Line, also known as the Ostwall. There was only one problem; that defensive line did not exist.

The Panther-Wotan Line was a project that was ordered by Hitler back in August, but was never really finished and the defensive fortifications were almost non-existent. Küchler’s withdrawal to the line was not that helpful in the ensuing battles, although it did give a certain level of hope to the soldiers. For now, one thing was certain: there would be no more German offensives in the Eastern Front. The defeat of the European Axis was coming.

 

[Antonio the Komnenoi]

I wonder just how much more brutal will be the allied invasion of Germany itself.

 

[Thanosaekk]

I wonder just how much more brutal will be the allied invasion of Germany itself.

By the time of the assassination, the date of the Normandy landings had been already decided as being roughly in May. There will not be much room to change the plans from OTL, but some things will be different, especially as the Allies continue pushing into Germany while the Soviet advances are different.

 

[Thanosaekk]

[These interludes are for talking about other events that are usually not important enough to be worthy of a chapter on their own, while the next chapters are being prepared.]

Interlude 1

LATIN AMERICA STANDS AGAINST THE AXIS - Declarations of War, Bolivia’s Pro-Fascist Government Ousted

New York Times, December 21, 1943

Tomás Monje Gutierrez, the new temporary President of Bolivia​

Today, large crowds demonstrating in front of the Palacio Quemado in La Paz, Bolivia, overthrew the short-lived government of Gualberto Villarroel, which lasted for only a bit more than a day. The revolutionary council, comprised of prominent intellectuals and revolutionaries from the protestors, announced a temporary junta under Tomás Monje Gutierrez will be established, and elections will be held within the next year.

The reason for the early end of the new regime, despite it being reformist and promising progress, was related to foreign policy and the ongoing Second World War. The previous democratic government under Enrique Peñaranda had welcomed Henry A. Wallace, then Vice-President of the United States, during his tour of many Latin American nations and declared war on the Axis powers the day of his visit. Wallace had received a warm welcome and was quickly loved by the Bolivian people, since he could also speak and deliver speeches in Spanish. Wallace’s tour to strengthen relations with Latin America was extremely successful, and with his rise to presidency after the assassination of Franklin D. Roosevelt, that has had an effect on the continent.

Villarroel’s government was accused of having ties to the Axis by the USA, specifically the MNR party with which he allied, which is partially true. This was what caused the demonstrations and led to the government being overthrown. Henry A. Wallace has immediately recognized the new Bolivian government, and has promised to provide financial help to the nation.

This is considered to be part of the greater wave of support against the Axis coming from the Latin American nations following the assassination in Tehran. So far, several American nations have declared war in the last 30 days due to Wallace’s ascension to President. These are the countries of Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela, which have issued declarations of war against all Axis powers.

Bolivia itself has announced that it will remain in a state of war with all Axis powers. In fact, there are negotiations regarding a Bolivian volunteer brigade going to fight in Europe as part of the Brazilian Expeditionary Force, the “Smoking Snakes”, which will be soon sent to take part in the Italian Front. With more and more Latin American nations joining the war, the dream of the influential Brazilian Assis Chateaubriand for a unified South American force for WWII that was abandoned may come true.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Chapter 4 - The Triumvirate, and Plans for A New Conference

The sudden death of Stalin, aside from obvious instability in the USSR, also brought the collective leadership of the Triumvirate, that is, Molotov, Zhukov and Malenkov. All three had different backgrounds, different ideas and different approaches on governing the nation.

The first, and arguably most influential of the three leaders, was Vyacheslav Molotov. Molotov was the Chairman of the Council of the People’s Commissars in the 1930s, and then became the Minister of Foreign Affairs. He was responsible for many foreign policy decisions, although obviously Stalin was the one who actually made the decisions, and was also the signatory of the famous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. He was known as being loyal and obedient towards Stalin, and would often fiercely defend Soviet interests. He was also not particularly friendly, if not suspicious of the Western Allies. During the Tehran Conference, he was actually present and witnessed the assassination, although he himself was never hurt. Once the Triumvirate was established, he became well-known for being the closest in policies to Stalin, following Stalinist policies. Furthermore, despite his suspicion of the Western Allies, he was the one to push the most for another conference between Allied leaders or diplomats.

The second member of the Triumvirate was Georgy Zhukov. Zhukov was an army officer, and although he was prominent and possibly the most important Soviet general in the Eastern Front, he didn’t have any political experience. Still, his influence in the Red Army was enough to earn him a position in the CPSU leadership structure. He was generally moderate in his domestic policies, and while he didn’t openly push for de-Stalinization he supported dismantling Stalin’s cult of personality and the totalitarian government system.

Finally, the third member of the Triumvirate was Georgy Malenkov. While his political supporters were not many, he was a member of the State Defense Committee (GKO). This body was formed immediately after the launch of Operation Barbarossa and controlled almost all aspects of domestic policies and life in the USSR. It was composed of 8 members at the time of the Tehran Conference, and after Stalin’s death and Beria’s arrest, it was reduced to six. The GKO meant Malenkov could easily become a contestant for the USSR leadership, and so he did. In general, while in the Triumvirate, he was only busy with domestic affairs, handling the war economy and the industry of the nation. He also appointed Vsevolod Merkulov as the new head of the NKVD, which merged with other secret police and counter-intelligence organizations. He had little power, and was in danger of being thrown out of the CPSU leadership at any time.

In general, the three leaders could agree on broad policies, but obviously it could be the war that allowed this. Should there not be a war with the Fascists to unite them and force them to cooperate, the leadership could easily collapse. One thing they all had to agree on was how to reverse the totalitarian nature of the former Stalinist regime, and that had to start from the organization of the CPSU.

During the Stalinist regime, the two main governing bodies, aside from the Party Congress which rarely met and was irrelevant, were the Politburo and the Central Committee. The Politburo had the most power, as opposed to the Lenin era when the Central Committee was dominant, but even they were doing nothing but following Stalin’s orders. Both were led by the General Secretary, who coincidentally was also Stalin. After the Triumvirate took power, many reforms took place to ensure the government came closer to resembling a “Soviet democracy”. Firstly, the power of the Politburo was diminished to ensure it was once again subordinate to the Central Committee. Furthermore, the position of General Secretary was abolished as there was no single leader anymore. However, a position with the same name was created for the leader of the Central Committee, who would act as a single figurehead and would be a balancing power between all three leaders. The person chosen for this position was Mikhail Kalinin, member of the Politburo and a relatively neutral political figure.

Mikhail Kalinin, the new General Secretary of the USSR.​

Mikhail Kalinin didn’t have all that much political experience, only being a figurehead and usually just agreeing to Stalin. However, from the beginning of the Triumvirate’s regime he showed willingness to participate in Soviet politics. His position became the de jure “head of state” position, and he was frequently mentioned as the leader of the USSR in documents or atlases. He also became active in international conferences and communication with the Allies, although still he lacked a high level of control over the Union.

Regarding international conferences, plans were already being laid out for another conference to effectively make up for Tehran, comprised of Eden, Wallace and Kalinin. Locations being considered were many, and with Wallace who was not disabled and Kalinin who wasn’t that reluctant to leave Moscow as opposed to the previous leaders, North America or Africa were possible candidates. Eden suggested Canada, where the Quebec Conference had already taken place, as a good and safe choice.

Of course, security would be much, much more tight, after the events at Tehran. In regards to what happened in Iran after the assassination, the occupation became much tighter as well, and there was a massive crackdown against the Nazi spy network in the capital by Merkulov’s NKVD. It had to be ensured that something similar to the events at Tehran would never happen again.

 

[jolou]

For the Free French, it can't get worse. Their main diplomatic opponent is gone (FDR) and Eden was the one who persuaded many times to continue to support De Gaulle. Maybe he could even get to the Québec Conference or you know getting his government recognized by the Americans

 

[Thanosaekk]

For the Free French, it can't get worse. Their main diplomatic opponent is gone (FDR) and Eden was the one who persuaded many times to continue to support De Gaulle. Maybe he could even get to the Québec Conference or you know getting his government recognized by the Americans

I am not that knowledgeable on Free France and De Gaulle, but that makes sense, and De Gaulle could be a possible member of the new conference (unless the Big Three want to keep it just like the original Tehran conference that was postponed). Of course, he will not have that much negotiating power but that would still be a big win for Free France.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The loss of Churchill beyond 1941 is not a disaster for the British Commonwealth

He had done his job during the Summer of 1940 - made sure Britain stayed in the war - made sure that the Government had some 'bottom'

In many respects he meddled too much and interfered where a Prime Minister should not have.

So maybe I am being unkind but in many respects Eden taking over is a positive for the British Commonwealth at this time.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Chapter 5 - The Ottawa Conference

On the 28th of January, 1944, the Second Battle of Kiev had come to an end and the Red Army was preparing for new offensives, the Allies in Italy were being held back by the Gustav Line, and new offensives were being planned in the Solomon and Marshall Islands on the other side of the world. Meanwhile, in the Château Laurier in Ottawa, Canada, a high-meeting conference was being prepared.

Its participants were, of course, the “Big Three”: Anthony Eden, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Henry A. Wallace, President of the United States, and Mikhail Kalinin, General Secretary of the USSR. Each had brought some other people as well, including Secretaries of Foreign Affairs etc. There were two important absentees: Mackenzie King, Prime Minister of Canada, who felt he should be invited given the talks were taking place in his country, and Charles De Gaulle, leader of the Free French, although he had much less negotiating power. Still, the interests of both would likely be represented through Anthony Eden, as Canada was a British Dominion and Eden was one of he biggest supporters of De Gaulle.

The Château Laurier in Ottawa, the location of the Ottawa Conference.​

The issues that would be discussed in the Conference were somewhat similar to the original Tehran Conference, concerning the second front against the Germans and action against Japan. The Conference would be three days long, and security was stricter than ever before. British, Canadian and even American troops were placed in and near the hotel to make sure nothing like Tehran would happen again. They had all gone through extensive background checks.

The conference started on the 28th, and immediately the three leaders who had never met each other before became friends. There were no major disagreements between them, and there was a general consensus on most issues. The first issue was that of a second front against Germany to help the Soviets. During the last two months, the Germans had been able to hold on and even attack in the Eastern Front, making Operation Overlord even more necessary. The date for the launch of Overlord was early May, but it could easily be postponed due to many reasons, for example bad weather. However, the Western Allies were extremely keen on launching it quickly, especially as revenge against the Germans and a solution to stop Wehrmacht offensives in the East. Eden and Wallace also shared some details for the invasion plans with Kalinin.

Additionally, another big issue was Soviet action against Japan. The USSR had a non-aggression pact with the superpower of the East, and that had managed to keep the two giants at peace despite Japan’s major ally being at war with the Union. However, it was expected from the United Nations that the USSR would eventually declare war and help fight the fascists. For now, that was out of the question, as the Red Army was still focusing on the Eastern Front, but once the Nazis were defeated an invasion of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere was possible. Kalinin argued that the USSR couldn’t immediately go from war with Germany to war with Japan and would need time to prepare. Similar to Stalin’s goals in Tehran, he wanted to negotiate and promised to join against Japan at least three months after the Nazis were defeated.

Finally, another issue that was discussed was the Polish borders. All three sides quickly agreed to the Curzon Line becoming the nation’s eastern frontier, just like Stalin had advocated, and it was also agreed that the Polish state would “move” westwards. However, what was not universally agreed was the Western frontier. While it was indisputable that post-war, Poland should get Danzig and East Prussia, other areas like Pomerania and Silesia were less likely to join after the war. Stalin had proposed a border up to the river Oder and its tributary Neisse, and a similar proposal was drafted and accepted by the Big Three in the end. However, nothing was made official yet, with Eden and Wallace being afraid that it would hurt their election results due to the Polish populations.

Other than the main three topics of discussion, there were also other minor issues that were discussed, mainly regarding the current war strategy. Kalinin shared that there were preparations for a winter counter-offensive that would kick the Germans out of the Ukraine, perhaps even further than that. That offensive would start very soon.

 

[BELFAST]

Could D-day still go ahead in 1944 if they only agree it late January of 1944.

 

[Thanosaekk]

Could D-day still go ahead in 1944 if they only agree it January of 1944.

It has already been agreed to between the UK and US generals and governments, and the date has been set as May. Eden and Wallace just confirmed to the USSR that the invasion will be happening to open a serious second front.

 

[sloreck]

If the Soviets advance somewhat slower than OTL, which seems likely given the Germans are doing better here, than the collapse of Germany might come one or two months later. If the three month timetable is adhered to, and in reality the Soviets don't have much choice logistically, then the bombs get dropped and Japan surrenders before the Soviets are fully ready to jump in. I expect they'd jump in to Manchuria or Korea as best they could but they would not be prepared, and taking the Kuriles would be a non-starter. It's entirely possible that the USSR never declares war on Japan here, and while they would try and snatch Manchuria, Korea might end up being entirely occupied by the US although the communist Koreans training in the USSR would be unleashed at some point postwar.

If it is the Western Allies who take Berlin, due to a slower Soviet advance, expect the population of the Soviet zone (assuming the occupation zones are as OTL) to be substantially smaller as lots more Germans will move west as the US/UK/France withdraw and let the Russians in.

 

[Thanosaekk]

If the Soviets advance somewhat slower than OTL, which seems likely given the Germans are doing better here, than the collapse of Germany might come one or two months later. If the three month timetable is adhered to, and in reality the Soviets don't have much choice logistically, then the bombs get dropped and Japan surrenders before the Soviets are fully ready to jump in. I expect they'd jump in to Manchuria or Korea as best they could but they would not be prepared, and taking the Kuriles would be a non-starter. It's entirely possible that the USSR never declares war on Japan here, and while they would try and snatch Manchuria, Korea might end up being entirely occupied by the US although the communist Koreans training in the USSR would be unleashed at some point postwar.

If it is the Western Allies who take Berlin, due to a slower Soviet advance, expect the population of the Soviet zone (assuming the occupation zones are as OTL) to be substantially smaller as lots more Germans will move west as the US/UK/France withdraw and let the Russians in.

That's similar to what I was thinking for the future. The timetable of Soviet advances really only changed that much in Ukraine with a one-two month delay in the winter counter-offensives, so nothing completely game-changing, but it will still delay VE-DAY and the Soviet declaration of war against Japan.