As we all know, on July 8th, 1853, Matthew Perry would lead a small fleet of ships in an effort to force Japan to accept trade with the west again, but in the end the initial attempt would devolve into Perry opening fire on Edo, and inadvertently causing the city to burn down. This would spark the Japanese-American war, which would see the U.S. overthrow the shogunate and install a democratic government. The Edo Republic as it was known for the government being moved to Edo was highly corrupt and ineffective, eventually collapsing and leaving the Japanese archipelago divided to this day. What I want to know is, what if Matthew Perry's original strategy had worked and the Japanese became open to trade with the western world?
DBWI: What if the U.S. made Japan open up
- Thread starter Etruscan-enthusiast35
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They might be temporarily rich, but that would just make the idea of carving them up more appealing to the Russian and Chinese Empires. I guess they could try modernizing, but there's a pretty good chance that the Korean Empire would have assassinated some key figures and ground a halt to the process to protect themselves from competition. Assuming of course that the modernization of Joseon doesn't get butterflied away since the burning of Edo was one of the factors (though not the only one) in prompting the modernization of Korea.
so no Korean Kyushu or Taipei? I guess that's good given Korea wasn't the nicest to the non-koreans. Can't imagine Japan would be that bad.
Or the modernization of both Siam and Chun China (after Zeng Guofan overthrew the Qing in the aftermath of the defeat of the Taiping), for that matter with the "three Asian titans" of China, Siam, and Korea being world powers starting in the early 20th Century with all three having strong spheres of influence in Asia and fierce rivalries as China is still angry at Korea over how they support the rump Qing Dynasty.
modernization with trade could happen , in its center japan was not that different from the west during the 16th century the portuguese introduced guns and in short period the japanese adapted to the fire arms and many western technologies
heck in the 16th century japan had probably the most advanced army in asia ,who is to say if matthew perry's plan works , the same happens but with industralization and second modernization .
heck in the 16th century japan had probably the most advanced army in asia ,who is to say if matthew perry's plan works , the same happens but with industralization and second modernization .
So, yeah, your thoughts on the Sino-Korean rivalry owing to Korea grabbing Taiwan and propping up the Qing remnant in Manchuria where the Manchu (and Han loyalists) fled after Zeng Guofan turned on them?
Question is, would it have remained an absolute monarchy, or become constitutional?
Well, one could make an argument that the Sino-Korean rivalry was brought about by how both countries modernized as a result of fear that what had happened in Japan would happen to them next, but fair point.
Well, the Emperor back them was a puppet of the Shogunate, so there's that.
Is there any guarantee that would remain the case though? History does show that all it takes is the death of one influential individual or the ascension of an ambitious person with friends in important places.
The Koreans bit off more than they could chew; when the Federal German Empire invaded Italy and WWI kicked off it wasn't too difficult for the Chinese to reconquer Manchuria and Taiwan, with the Japanese Republic retaking its old lands. Korea thought it could be top dog just because the real alpha was sick; it thought wrong.
BTW, how would no American Japan change the American Civil War? I think the Union would have a harder time of it given the prominence of former Samurai in their armies.
Looking at Europe, I think Civil War would happen before the shogun loses power.
Seriously? Absolute monarchy is a dead ideology. The only absolute monarchist countries in the world are Sotholand, Bhutan, Sikkim and Oman, all of which are heavily unstable and have low populations.
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OK.
Changes that would result from this :
0. Japan not being an American ally (like the Japanese rump state was IOTL) would prevent (or at least reduce) American expansion into the Pacific. No american Samoa, Bismarck Islands or Hawai'i here! Possibly no American Congo, either.
1. Japan would, in this scenario, retain the southern Kurils, Ezo/Yezo [OOC:Hokkaido}, Kyushu , and the Izu Islands and not have to retake them later.
2. It will also probably be richer than IOTL
3. Japan would probably protectorate Luquiu instead of Korea ITTL (it's better positioned to do so)
4. Japan would be better positioned to attack the Spanish in 1898 than Korea was, and the USA will not attempt to annex them ITTL, so the Philippine War would go differently. Taiwan would end up as part of Japan (not Korea). I think Luzon probably ends up as a Japanese colony or protectorate and the Visayas could go to either Japan or Germany. Both Luzon and the Visayas were occupied by America IOTL. Preussen Ost-Mindanau and the takeover of Sabah, Palawan and western Mindanao by Sarawak still probably happen.
5. Spanish Micronesia would probably become Japanese rather than being split between the USA (which took Guam), Japan (which took the Izus, Bonins, Ogasawaras and northern Marianas) and Prussia (which took the rest)
6. Japan would be politically more right-wing than IOTL.
7. Japan would also be way less multicultural than IOTL. After WW1, Japan found itself with not insignificant minorities of Han Chinese (on Kyushu) and Poles, Green Ukrainians, caucasian Muslims, Jews and Aynu (on Ezo), most of whom had fought against the Russians and Koreans and were therefore considered friendly. (on Ezo/Yezo, Japanese were only a plurality, in fact, even after the deportation of most of the Russian population of the island). ITTL, the only minority in Japan would be the Aynu, who have a low population and mostly live in the most remote areas of the most useless Japanese island.
8. The Russian Empire collapsing is basically inevitable with a PoD after the Napoleonic Wars, and the Soviets (or an equivalent group) probably still win from the resulting collapse. However, there would be changes in Siberia. Japan would fight against the Soviets and Green Ukraine along with the international intervention rather than being co-belligerent with the Soviets (and the second country to recognise them and the first to recognise Green Ukraine), likely gaining Sakhalin and the northern Kurils and possibly gaining Kamchatka as well. It is possible that this would result in everything east of Yakutia and Buryatia remaining under tsarist rule.
9. These, of course, assumes that Japan modernises to a similar extent to Korea IOTL. I have read a decent timeline where Japan basically becomes an Asian iMerina [OOC : Madagascar], managing to remain mostly independent in foreign policy and keep its territorial integrity roughly intact, while still having some areas (Ezo/Yezo, the southern Kuril islands, Izu, the Osumi islands, Hizen, Iki, Tsushima) turned into foreign concessions.
@HIM Dogson, Considering that only about 30 samurai fought in the American civil war, the lack of them would probably change literally nothing. Please do not confuse Kurosawa's movies with reality.
Changes that would result from this :
0. Japan not being an American ally (like the Japanese rump state was IOTL) would prevent (or at least reduce) American expansion into the Pacific. No american Samoa, Bismarck Islands or Hawai'i here! Possibly no American Congo, either.
1. Japan would, in this scenario, retain the southern Kurils, Ezo/Yezo [OOC:Hokkaido}, Kyushu , and the Izu Islands and not have to retake them later.
2. It will also probably be richer than IOTL
3. Japan would probably protectorate Luquiu instead of Korea ITTL (it's better positioned to do so)
4. Japan would be better positioned to attack the Spanish in 1898 than Korea was, and the USA will not attempt to annex them ITTL, so the Philippine War would go differently. Taiwan would end up as part of Japan (not Korea). I think Luzon probably ends up as a Japanese colony or protectorate and the Visayas could go to either Japan or Germany. Both Luzon and the Visayas were occupied by America IOTL. Preussen Ost-Mindanau and the takeover of Sabah, Palawan and western Mindanao by Sarawak still probably happen.
5. Spanish Micronesia would probably become Japanese rather than being split between the USA (which took Guam), Japan (which took the Izus, Bonins, Ogasawaras and northern Marianas) and Prussia (which took the rest)
6. Japan would be politically more right-wing than IOTL.
7. Japan would also be way less multicultural than IOTL. After WW1, Japan found itself with not insignificant minorities of Han Chinese (on Kyushu) and Poles, Green Ukrainians, caucasian Muslims, Jews and Aynu (on Ezo), most of whom had fought against the Russians and Koreans and were therefore considered friendly. (on Ezo/Yezo, Japanese were only a plurality, in fact, even after the deportation of most of the Russian population of the island). ITTL, the only minority in Japan would be the Aynu, who have a low population and mostly live in the most remote areas of the most useless Japanese island.
8. The Russian Empire collapsing is basically inevitable with a PoD after the Napoleonic Wars, and the Soviets (or an equivalent group) probably still win from the resulting collapse. However, there would be changes in Siberia. Japan would fight against the Soviets and Green Ukraine along with the international intervention rather than being co-belligerent with the Soviets (and the second country to recognise them and the first to recognise Green Ukraine), likely gaining Sakhalin and the northern Kurils and possibly gaining Kamchatka as well. It is possible that this would result in everything east of Yakutia and Buryatia remaining under tsarist rule.
9. These, of course, assumes that Japan modernises to a similar extent to Korea IOTL. I have read a decent timeline where Japan basically becomes an Asian iMerina [OOC : Madagascar], managing to remain mostly independent in foreign policy and keep its territorial integrity roughly intact, while still having some areas (Ezo/Yezo, the southern Kuril islands, Izu, the Osumi islands, Hizen, Iki, Tsushima) turned into foreign concessions.
@HIM Dogson, Considering that only about 30 samurai fought in the American civil war, the lack of them would probably change literally nothing. Please do not confuse Kurosawa's movies with reality.
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[OOC: I'm thinking of the "German Federal Republic" as an Austro-Hungarian successor state that included southern Germany and took over northern Germany during WW1, and am referring to northern Germany as "Prussia" due to it having been the dominant state.]
[The border between Angola and American Congo was the Otl Angolan border west of the Kwilu river, followed by 6 degrees south from the Kwilu to the Sankuru. The border between Angola and British North Zambezia was the Sankuru river. The border between the British and Prussian and American areas was the Sankuru river from 6S to 5S, the fifth parallel south to the Lomami river, the Lomami river till it meets the Congo, and the Congo river till it meets the Aruwimi. The border between British North Zambezia and Prussian Congo was 5S, the Congo River and the Luvua river. The border between British Congo and Prussian Congo was 1.5S, the Congo river and the Ulindi river. The border between French Central Africa and the British Congo was the Aruwimi river. The border between the American Congo and French Central Africa was the OTL border between the Congos up until the Ubangi splits from the Congo, and then the Congo River from there to where it meets the Aruwimi.]
[The border between Angola and American Congo was the Otl Angolan border west of the Kwilu river, followed by 6 degrees south from the Kwilu to the Sankuru. The border between Angola and British North Zambezia was the Sankuru river. The border between the British and Prussian and American areas was the Sankuru river from 6S to 5S, the fifth parallel south to the Lomami river, the Lomami river till it meets the Congo, and the Congo river till it meets the Aruwimi. The border between British North Zambezia and Prussian Congo was 5S, the Congo River and the Luvua river. The border between British Congo and Prussian Congo was 1.5S, the Congo river and the Ulindi river. The border between French Central Africa and the British Congo was the Aruwimi river. The border between the American Congo and French Central Africa was the OTL border between the Congos up until the Ubangi splits from the Congo, and then the Congo River from there to where it meets the Aruwimi.]
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