In OTL, the Reagan-Schweiker Ticket hit the ground running before they were even formally nominated. I think if Ford was nominated, he would have picked Kansas Senator Bob Dole as his running mate, which provides no regional balance. Ford probably loses to the Democrat by a landslide while a faithless elector somewhere, probably in Washington remembers the Reagan/Schweiker Ticket and casts a vote for them. Maybe Ronald Reagan runs again in 1980, but faces Dole in a tough primary fight for the nomination.At the 1976 Republican Convention, Ronald Reagan narrowly upset President Ford to become the GOP's nominee for President. What if Reagan had lost as expected, and Ford had been the Republican nominee in 1976?
In OTL, the Reagan-Schweiker Ticket hit the ground running before they were even formally nominated. I think if Ford was nominated, he would have picked Kansas Senator Bob Dole as his running mate, which provides no regional balance. Ford probably loses to the Democrat by a landslide while a faithless elector somewhere, probably in Washington remembers the Reagan/Schweiker Ticket and casts a vote for them. Maybe Ronald Reagan runs again in 1980, but faces Dole in a tough primary fight for the nomination.
Bush probably has an easier time winning the nomination in ATL 1980. In OTL, Phil Crane won Iowa and Howard Baker won South Carolina. Through Ronald Reagan's endorsement, Bush won New Hampshire and Nevada. Although Bush won Texas, John Connally significantly cut into his margin of victory by making it a contest of voting for a 'real Texan'. I can't imagine Bush and Reagan both running. I remember Nixon once considered Bush for VP to replace Agnew in 1972. Maybe Bush blames a Ford defeat in 1976 on Reagan during the ATL 1980 Primaries.What about the OTL 1980 nominee, George Bush?
Bush probably has an easier time winning the nomination in ATL 1980. In OTL, Phil Crane won Iowa and Howard Baker won South Carolina. With Ronald Reagan's endorsement, Bush won New Hampshire and Nevada. Although Bush won Texas, John Connally significantly cut into his support by making it a contest of being a 'real Texan'. I can't imagine Bush and Reagan both running. I remember Nixon once considered Bush for VP to replace Agnew in 1972.
True. Reagan's plans terrified independent voters and at the debates he came across as conceited and over-confident. Especially when he asked Carter, "What are you going to do about it?" Carter answered, "Raise taxes as you did." That was seen as a nail in the coffin.You mentioned that Ford would have lost to Carter in a landslide. But while Ford was unpopular, he wasn't seen as a right wing extremist like Reagan. I think he actually might do better than Reagan by winning Northern states that Carter won in OTL. Not to mention that Ford would have an incumbency advantage that Reagan didn't.
True. Reagan's plans terrified independent voters and at the debates he came across as conceited and over-confident. Especially when he asked Carter, "What are you going to do about it?" Carter answered, "Raise taxes as you did." That was seen as a nail in the coffin.
This is a huge 'IF', but maybe if the 1976 Democratic Presidential Primaries narrowed down to a bitter primary fight between Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter. Kennedy runs, expecting a coronation, but Carter upsets him. This would splinter the Democratic Party between North and South (Mondale helps bridge the gap with the Midwest though).In retrospect, Reagan just wasn't a good candidate to run after Watergate. He had flip flopped on so many issues (taxes, abortion, the environment, etc) that Carter was able to portray himself as the candidate of honesty and win the election. The thing is that because Ford pardoned Nixon he's just as vulnerable as Reagan on issues of character. It makes you wonder if any Republican could have won in 1976.
This is a huge 'IF', but maybe if the 1976 Democratic Presidential Primaries narrowed down to a bitter primary fight between Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter. Kennedy runs, expecting a coronation, but Carter upsets him. This would splinter the Democratic Party between North and South (Mondale helps bridge the gap with the Midwest though).
Ford does slightly better than Carter on the whole IMHO (which is more than I can say about Reagan, I think he'd have been worse), but not well enough to save the GOP in 1980. Reagan is likely the nominee in this scenario as Ford would've only been nominated narrowly like Reagan was OTL, leading Reagan to be redeemed somewhat by the base. If not him, Ford's VP would be nominated, regardless the Democrats win in 1980. Whether they win in 1984 or not depends on how a Democrat handles the economy in the early 80s. Bush's win over Gary Hart was close in large part because unemployment was still almost 8% on election day. If it weren't for all the scandals and the lack of detail about his "New Ideas," Hart might've been elected the 41st President.If that were to happen, liberals would be even more upset with Carter than in OTL and more than a few would stay home or vote for Eugene McCarthy. This could split the liberal vote in Northern states that Carter won narrowly.
Meanwhile, if it looks like a Kennedy might be the nominee then perhaps enough Republican delegates turn to Ford for him to be nominated. Ford takes advantage of a divided liberal vote to narrowly win a full term in his own right. Not very likely, but possible IMO. How might Ford have handled the problems of the late 1970s? I assume this butterflies Bush's Presidency.
Ford does slightly better than Carter on the whole IMHO (which is more than I can say about Reagan, I think he'd have been worse), but not well enough to save the GOP in 1980.
I was talking about if Ford had won a term in his own right due to a liberal divide and how things might've gone beyond an elected Ford term.OOC: Don't you mean 1976?
Ford does slightly better than Carter on the whole IMHO (which is more than I can say about Reagan, I think he'd have been worse), but not well enough to save the GOP in 1980. Reagan is likely the nominee in this scenario as Ford would've only been nominated narrowly like Reagan was OTL, leading Reagan to be redeemed somewhat by the base. If not him, Ford's VP would be nominated, regardless the Democrats win in 1980. Whether they win in 1984 or not depends on how a Democrat handles the economy in the early 80s. Bush's win over Gary Hart was close in large part because unemployment was still almost 8% on election day. If it weren't for all the scandals and the lack of detail about his "New Ideas," Hart might've been elected the 41st President.
Yea, the crowning achievement of the Cuomo Administration was the 1991 healthcare bill. Don't know where I'd be without it. Thank god everyday Cuomo beat Vice Presidenet Pete du Pont in 1988.I agree that the GOP is toast in 1980. The 1980s are a Democratic decade, instead of a Republican one under Bush. So you might see universal health care introduced as early as a decade earlier than OTL.
Yea, the crowning achievement of the Cuomo Administration was the 1991 healthcare bill. Don't know where I'd be without it. Thank god everyday Cuomo beat Vice Presidenet Pete du Pont in 1988.