DBWI: Democratic India, Authoritarian China?

Whiteshore

Whiteshore

As we all know, both China and India are rising (near) superpowers which have thriving economies, nuclear arsenals, first-rate armed forces, and increasing assertiveness foreign policy-wise but this is where the similarity ends as the Republic of China is the world's largest democracy (even though the Kuomintang dominated the Republic of China's politics until the early 1980s) with a quite turbulent political scene (with an incident where a fight in Parliament saw a banana being thrown at the President) while India is a right-wing nationalist dictatorship which is fiercely Hindu-nationalist and crushed a series of pro-democracy protests in Delhi in 1989? So, how could India have become a democracy while China becomes a dictatorship? How would a democratic India and an authoritarian China affect the respective development of India and China?

OOC: The Parliament brawl leading to a banana-throwing incident was a reference to the infamous troll kahing's remark that "China need not democracy, need not throwing banana"
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

So, what PODs do you think could have resulted in a scenario where India is the "world's largest democracy" while China is an authoritarian if prosperous dictatorship?
 
Miss Teri

Miss Teri

If Gandhi hadn't died in prison in 1929, he probably could've saved the Indian National Congress from falling into the hands of Bose and his allies.
 

Deleted member 97083

It seems very difficult to prevent India, in the form it's taken since 1944, from becoming an authoritarian military dictatorship. With Pakistan and East Pakistan right next door, both of whom are allied with the Shahdom of Iran, there's a constant threat to India's existence. That's going to lead to extensive emergency powers given to the military--just look at the change in policy after the Eighth Indo-Pakistani War, or the Third Kerala Rebellion. When a junta takes over once, it's very hard to restore democracy, and emergency powers become permanent powers.

The Republic of China on the other hand, they have no real existential threats. They're allies with the US against the Soviet Union, the latter of which is a paper tiger at this point, and ever since the Chinese pushed the Japanese out of China in 1942 the ROC has been able to focus on building up and investing in their own reunited country and economy. The ROC, until recently, hasn't had to bother with military buildup, except for the Inner Manchuria border which was mostly funded by the Kennedy Plan. And the middle class is large enough in the ROC to push for democratic reforms, as we saw in the 1980s.

Any POD switching the fates of India and China will have to go back to the Japanese Empire era. Maybe if the Japanese suicidally push to conquer China even after invading California?
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

Well, if you ask me, India is practically a quasi-fascist military dictatorship where the military rules through a puppet Indian National Congress (which had been purged of anti-Bose elements after the coup which overthrew the short-lived democratic government in 1948).
 

Deleted member 97083

Whiteshore said:
Well, if you ask me, India is practically a quasi-fascist military dictatorship where the military rules through a puppet Indian National Congress (which had been purged of anti-Bose elements after the coup which overthrew the short-lived democratic government in 1948).
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Exactly, we all agree with that. The question is when did things start going wrong for India. And I believe it was when the Japanese propped up the Bose-dominated government in 1944 using the troops they were formerly using in China.

But if the Japanese had (for some reason) pushed to conquer China even after the events of 1942, then they wouldn't have been able to intervene significantly in India. Bose would have failed.

After WW2, Clement Attlee would have been able to release India on peaceful terms, united with West and East Pakistan. This India, given a few extra years to organize its government, wouldn't have seen the civil war happen so quickly.

Of course, having a more diplomatic leader like Muhammad Gandhi would help, too. So maybe the POD would be Gandhi surviving 1929, and another later POD during WW2.
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

So, we can all agree that Gandhi not dying in prison is the POD you need to get a democratic India, so, what about a POD to get a authoritarian China? Liao Zhongkai instead of Chiang Kai-Shek being assassinated with Chiang Kai-Shek becoming the absolute ruler of a quasi-fascist regime as opposed to the triumvirate of Liao Zhongkai, Hu Hanmin, and Wang Jingwei which developed after Sun Yat-Sen's death?
 

Lost Freeway

Banned
Achaemenid Rome said:
Exactly, we all agree with that. The question is when did things start going wrong for India. And I believe it was when the Japanese propped up the Bose-dominated government in 1944 using the troops they were formerly using in China.

But if the Japanese had (for some reason) pushed to conquer China even after the events of 1942, then they wouldn't have been able to intervene significantly in India. Bose would have failed.

After WW2, Clement Attlee would have been able to release India on peaceful terms, united with West and East Pakistan. This India, given a few extra years to organize its government, wouldn't have seen the civil war happen so quickly.

Of course, having a more diplomatic leader like Muhammad Gandhi would help, too. So maybe the POD would be Gandhi surviving 1929, and another later POD during WW2.
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OOC: Did Japan not get involved in China? How do they intervene in India then?
 

Deleted member 97083

Lost Freeway said:
OOC: Did Japan not get involved in China? How do they intervene in India then?
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OOC: I was thinking that Japan would invade China as OTL until 1941 or so, when a drastic change in fortunes (the decisive success of Liao Zhongkai) leads to a Japanese withdrawal in 1942-1943. (With the POD being 1929 or earlier, the attitude of Japan, as well as the strength of the USA, could be significantly different.) From there, they focus on the East Indies and Burma+India from 1944, where the ATL Bose government is established.
 
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Lost Freeway

Banned
Achaemenid Rome said:
OOC: I was thinking that Japan would invade Japan as OTL until 1941 or so, when a drastic change in fortunes (the decisive success of Liao Zhongkai) leads to a Japanese withdrawal in 1942-1943. (With the POD being 1929 or earlier, the attitude of Japan, as well as the strength of the USA, could be significantly different.) From there, they focus on the East Indies and Burma+India from 1944, where the ATL Bose government is established.
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How did they invade themselves?:p
 

SunilTanna

Surely this should be in the ASB forum? India could not survive except as an authoritian state - it contains a large Muslim minority who crave the secularism and freedom that the Arab and Islamic countries are so well known for, rather than the pan-religious ethnonationalism which is modern India's founding ideology.
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

SunilTanna said:
Surely this should be in the ASB forum? India could not survive except as an authoritian state - it contains a large Muslim minority who crave the secularism and freedom that the Arab and Islamic countries are so well known for, rather than the pan-religious ethnonationalism which is modern India's founding ideology.
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What about China, then? Or is the fact that China's population is largely homogeneous linguistically, culturally, and ethnically the reason why a democratic government is easier to achieve in China than it ever was in India?
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

So, what PODs might be necessary to create a world where China is an authoritarian, if prosperous, dictatorship as we can all agree that Gandhi not dying is the main POD you need for India to become the "world's largest democracy"?
 
Marklin

Marklin

Whiteshore said:
So, what PODs might be necessary to create a world where China is an authoritarian, if prosperous, dictatorship as we can all agree that Gandhi not dying is the main POD you need for India to become the "world's largest democracy"?
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Well, China was dominated by many warlords who could have risen to power had things gone better for them. The Qing restoration could have led to a more authoritarian China had it not been stopped. The CCP also could have had a chance, but their Leader was killed in the early 30s, and the Communists broke up into rival factions, so if they took power, they would have had trouble being in one piece.

I bring up the CCP because there is a great book called Bears and Dragons about the Communists winning the Civil War and making a Red China that became a strong ally of the USSR, even joining the Warsaw Pact. it is a good book, and it is a good depiction of an Authoritarian China, although India is not mentioned.
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

weaverj said:
Well, China was dominated by many warlords who could have risen to power had things gone better for them. The Qing restoration could have led to a more authoritarian China had it not been stopped. The CCP also could have had a chance, but their Leader was killed in the early 30s, and the Communists broke up into rival factions, so if they took power, they would have had trouble being in one piece.

I bring up the CCP because there is a great book called Bears and Dragons about the Communists winning the Civil War and making a Red China that became a strong ally of the USSR, even joining the Warsaw Pact. it is a good book, and it is a good depiction of an Authoritarian China, although India is not mentioned.
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Well, if you ask me, the main reason for why the Chinese Communists fell apart was because the left wing of the Kuomintang won out after Sun Yat-Sen died, so having the KMT rightists win out (possibly under Chiang Kai-Shek's leadership, if he hadn't been assassinated) could actually lead to a communist China.
 
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