Could the Lombard League have survived and evolved into something more?

[Raptilen]

The Second Lombard League was originally dissolved on 1250 when Frederick II Hohenstaufen died and the italian city-states saw no reason to continue it as they considered that the imperial threat was gone.

But let's just imagine Konrad IV, Frederick's son, somehow survived and continued to try imposing influence in northern Italy, as well as its successors (considering the Hohenstaufens might survive in this scenario) This would cause the Lombard League to last beyond 1250 and a common commitment would solidify. The growing Visconti power in Milan would also be a factor for mantaining the League, as they were ghibelines supported by the emperor. Having this into account, let's imagine the League manages to defeat the Viscontis and the Della Torres continue ruling the territory, which means a weakened Milan, which would favor the supervivence of the League.

Would this be possible? Would the League slowly centralize into a swiss-like confederation? Could Italy eventually be formed under this circumstances?

 

[Neoteros]

Would this be possible? Would the League slowly centralize into a swiss-like confederation? Could Italy eventually be formed under this circumstances?

By the end of the Lombard League's lifespan, it was already starting to resemble a confederation, with each city-state appointing a representative to a League-wide "parliament" with some actual powers even outside of military matters, so it wouldn't be unlikely for it to survive and turn into some kind of Switzerland of the plains, it would in fact be very likely.

However, it would not be a stable League, since the city-states of late medieval northern Italy had "low-level insurgency" as their default internal setting - the Ghibelline/Guelph split had by then become an excuse in all but name to engage in good ol' familial vendettas out of Shakespeare, only barely related to loyalty to Empire or Papacy. And some of those families will try to expand their personal fiefdoms at the expense of everyone else; you'd need to have some very capable statesmen to keep the whole thing in check.

Not to mention the fact that Genoa and Venice would be both members of the League and, even if Milan were weaker, their disputes would make those of the Swiss cantons seem like mere bar brawls. The best case scenario would be for them to Tordesillas the whole Mediterranean between them, in which case they'd have a near total monopoly on all Mediterranean trade, making the League obscenely rich.

Until, of course, the (re-)discovery of the Americas; whenever it'll happen, the only hope for the League to keep being Europe's richest state (a unified northern Italian polity would make even the Netherlands seem impoverished) would be for Venice to turn their OTL Suez Canal plans into reality, or for Genoa to seize either side of the strait of Gibraltar.