Let’s suppose that the Franco-Prussian war ends as IIRC Bismarck wanted it to - Germany is unified, but Alsace-Lorraine isn’t seized, and no French colonies are taken as spoils of war either. Would France still be a permanent enemy of Germany into the 20th century, or could a more amicable peace be established? I’m asking to see if a stranger sort of WW1 conflict could occur, with Germany and France on one side, and perhaps Britain, Austria and Russia on the other.
Could Germany and France reconcile if Alsace-Lorraine remains French?
- Thread starter jhuro
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I can't see that happening. In this scenario, Austria and Russia would still have conflicts over the Balkans while Austria has basically no territorial conflicts with either Germany or France. If there is a Franco-German rapproachment, I imagine that the more likely outcome is a Paris-Berlin-Vienna(maybe -Sofia and/or -Constantinople) alliance opposed by Britain, Italy, Russia, and some Balkan countries, none of whom have the power to take on this alt-Central Powers/Entente by themselves and I have doubts that they could do so together either, especially since there are conflicts between Britain and Russia, and Italy would have to be quite suicidal to join such a war since its surrounded on all sides and none of their potential allies border them or are otherwise close to them.
Why? They can just Blame Napoleon 3 for it and doesn't care,they got too damn lenient and would be back to business as usual
If there's a Franco-German reproachment to the point of an outright alliance, it throws OTL dynamics out the window. There may not even be any solidified alliance blocks, just shifting games of influence over the states of Europe between Britain, Germany, Russia, and to some extent France. This is Bismark's dream- Germany is the strongest European power, but there's no impetus to cut them down to size, or large alliance forming against them, just some geopolitical calculations. It is also an acceptable arrangement for Britain, who is happy to see no continental hegemon. Certainly Italy can do nothing against Austria, Germany, and France if the three are truly cooperating. Colonial disputes get thrown more into relief in this Europe, with the Great Game in Asia and conflicts between France and Britain being more important.
Could such a state stick around forever? Probably not. There's still that drive within Germany to take their "place in the sun" and become the dominant European power. Russia will, starting in the early 20th century, begin to grow, and challenge Germany's status as the "first among equals" of the European great powers. I bet tensions will start again as the Ottomans decline, and a scuffle in the Balkans could escalate to create more formalized alliances.
France was not a permanent enemy of Germany to begin with. Alsace-Lorraine was a subject of resentment, but with good diplomacy Germany could have eventually reached a rapprochement with France. Unfortunately for both parties, the late Kaiserreich was not good at diplomacy.
that prbbly also requires a revamped franco-british rivalry. Maybe clashes over the scramble for Africa escalate while a naval arms race goes on?
My money is on "no", it would just remove the cause célebre from the fight.
For France, an united Germany still is a threat and a likely blocker of ambitions over Wallonia and the "natural border" of the Rhine.
For Germany, France still is going to try and assimilate German speakers in A-L, and in general, many of the Western and Southern states are going to feel uneasy about the possibility of being invaded. I'm not saying something like the Entente Cordiale, which eventually smoothed over centuries of Anglo-French rivalry, cannot happen, but it won't be easy as there's nothing bringing them together like how the German Empire's perceived might did OTL.
For France, an united Germany still is a threat and a likely blocker of ambitions over Wallonia and the "natural border" of the Rhine.
For Germany, France still is going to try and assimilate German speakers in A-L, and in general, many of the Western and Southern states are going to feel uneasy about the possibility of being invaded. I'm not saying something like the Entente Cordiale, which eventually smoothed over centuries of Anglo-French rivalry, cannot happen, but it won't be easy as there's nothing bringing them together like how the German Empire's perceived might did OTL.
Rattenfänger von Memphis
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Bismarck himself felt that the French would have had a lasting bitterness towards Germany no matter what. In A. J. P. Taylor’s “The Struggle For Mastery In Europe 1848 – 1918”, pages 217 – 218, Bismarck compared his war with Austria, where the Austrians were defeated in 1866 at the Battle of Königgrätz (or Sadowa) but suffered no territorial losses with France being defeated 4 years later in 1870 – 1871 and if they had not been forced to cede Alsace-Lorraine as did happen OTL.
France had been the pre-eminent European power for centuries. When the Germans knocked the French off this pedestal and became a greater European power than France, it was humiliating to their self-image to be defeated by people they had frequently invaded and ruled over. Bismarck knew this bittereness and desire for for revenge would not go away no matter how lenient the peace terms might have been.A. J. P. Taylor said:
I agree with Evil Crusader; there would not have been an alliance between the French Republic and the German Empire.
Evil Crusader said:
AFAIK Alsace-Lorraine was desired by the southern German states, a neutral territory, where most Prussian forces could be stationed.
OTOH France could be so pre-eminent, because they actively kept the German Lands divided. for centuries. France for once got a taste of their own medicine .
IIRC Bismarck personally did not insist on the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine, which borders were as Germanic as possible, barring strategic points, and pleased internal German wishes.
With a French Alsace-Lorraine I tend to think such a move might be more possible somewhat sooner.
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You might see one party stumbling into a war on the other's side due to "events" sooner than seeing an actual Franco-German Alliance. (You might, for instance, see the Boer War and Fashoda coinciding and pitting France and Germany against Britain, together by accident rather than by intent, though it would require a great deal more tension and political carelessness on all sides for that to actually spill into a Great War.)
Maybe a worse Fashoda Crisis (among other colonial conflicts) convinces Britain that France will no longer be the ally they were under Napoleon III? If France and Germany look like they’re on the same side, even if on accident, Britain would have to support Russia.
Germany and France being on the same side is definitely very challenging. The only thing I can think of Berlin being able to offer France is a Franco-German bloc that can overtake Britain as the premier power, while also preventing Russia from dominating Europe after it industrializes. Like an imperialist version of the European Union
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I think that France and Germany reconciling is possible, but that reconciliation is the result of a world war being avoided entirely and France and Germany reconciling politically and transitioning their rivalry into pure economics. But getting France and Germany into a world war on the same side seems more difficult because I struggle to see them having a unified purpose (is France trying to take British colonies with the Kriegsmarine?). Like what conflict unifies them together outside of a hot and sloppy Fashoda?