Could China have retaken Mongolia in the 90s?
- Thread starter Jimbo808
- Start date
Russia would be absolutely livid and terrified. If (Outer) Mongolia is on China's menu then Outer Manchuria and Tuva presumably are as well. The early-mid 90s are Russia's (conventional) military nadir, so their only way to contest the conquest of Mongolia or any further Chinese land grabbing would be nukes. Whether Russia even tries would likely depend on when China strikes. Before the First Chechen War Russia may stumble into the conflict out of obligation and quickly learn its army is in no shape to fight anyone. After the First Chechen War (and before 1999-ish) Russia would likely be all too aware of its own weaknesses to risk it.
Assuming Russia does not go nuclear over the issue it could still be a rather mixed bag. The democracy on its border is eliminated, and one of its primary sources of coal has been "brought in house" so to speak. On the other hand the west 100% will take issue with the invasion and the sanctions that follow will make the post-Tiananmen Square sanctions look insignificant in comparison. China likely grows slower under sanctions, but may be more sustainably and evenly given its growth will depend on its internal market (which is still over a billion people) rather than depending on good will from the same west it deems to be future adversaries.
Assuming Russia does not go nuclear over the issue it could still be a rather mixed bag. The democracy on its border is eliminated, and one of its primary sources of coal has been "brought in house" so to speak. On the other hand the west 100% will take issue with the invasion and the sanctions that follow will make the post-Tiananmen Square sanctions look insignificant in comparison. China likely grows slower under sanctions, but may be more sustainably and evenly given its growth will depend on its internal market (which is still over a billion people) rather than depending on good will from the same west it deems to be future adversaries.
I mean to allow this Mongolia would probably have to fall into civil war of some kind as it would justify why China invades in the first place. After a decade they might fully annex the region.
Also expect Taiwan to be much more pro-independence since they just seen the Chinese invade one of their claims so there is always the possibility that China would do the same to Taiwan.
Also expect Taiwan to be much more pro-independence since they just seen the Chinese invade one of their claims so there is always the possibility that China would do the same to Taiwan.
As stated, Russia is not going to be happy. There's all the assortment of Cold War issues: the Soviets and Chinese were at each other's throats and Mongolia was where they got into shooting matches and where the real hot spot would be if a full war erupted. For China to invade would be a blunt statement that Soviet power was gone, a major trauma for the Russians and a needless, deadly serious provocation.
If we start history in 1991, the Mongolians went through a shock when the Soviets fell but began transitioning to a free market economy. Mongolia has many natural resources with emphasis on minerals. Post-Soviet Russians have investments in mineral extractions and trade relations. So do the Chinese. Depending on the year of this invasion, it'd be economically ignorant. Its better to exploit and win the market or even bring the country with that market under your hegemony than conquer the country the market is in; you have the other country do the upkeep expenses and deal with the details. It is also provocative and directly threatening to Russian interests. If nothing else, the one thing that has guided Russian interests (outside of that which I will not state due to current politics) is money.
If we start history in 1991, the Mongolians went through a shock when the Soviets fell but began transitioning to a free market economy. Mongolia has many natural resources with emphasis on minerals. Post-Soviet Russians have investments in mineral extractions and trade relations. So do the Chinese. Depending on the year of this invasion, it'd be economically ignorant. Its better to exploit and win the market or even bring the country with that market under your hegemony than conquer the country the market is in; you have the other country do the upkeep expenses and deal with the details. It is also provocative and directly threatening to Russian interests. If nothing else, the one thing that has guided Russian interests (outside of that which I will not state due to current politics) is money.
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Why would they do this? They have been getting along with Mongolia pretty well in recent decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Mongolia_relations#Modern_period Why attack a friendly neighbor and member of the UN and get universally condemned for it (and remember that China was trying to improve relations with Russia, Japan and the West in the 1990s--and of course to join the WTO)? Also, why add to China's ethnic minority problem? This is not like Taiwan, which is overwhelmingly Han in population and which calls itself the Republic of China, and whose permanent loss is obviously very difficult for the PRC to tolerate.
Bad relations between the PRC and Mongolia during the period of the Soviet-Chinese quarrel were caused not by Chinese irredentism but by China's perception of Mongolia as a Soviet satellite (in particular the presence of Soviet troops there was listed in the 1980s as one of the "three obstacles" to Soviet-Chinese rapprohement[1]). That problem had simply ceased to exist by the 1990s and the Chinese were anxious to improve their political and economic ties with Ulaanbaatar.
[1] The other two were the presence of Soviet troops in Aghanistan and of Vietnamese troops in Cambodia.
Bad relations between the PRC and Mongolia during the period of the Soviet-Chinese quarrel were caused not by Chinese irredentism but by China's perception of Mongolia as a Soviet satellite (in particular the presence of Soviet troops there was listed in the 1980s as one of the "three obstacles" to Soviet-Chinese rapprohement[1]). That problem had simply ceased to exist by the 1990s and the Chinese were anxious to improve their political and economic ties with Ulaanbaatar.
[1] The other two were the presence of Soviet troops in Aghanistan and of Vietnamese troops in Cambodia.
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Why did the Soviets station troops in Mongolia part possible benefit can the drive from it ? Is it because they can strike quickly from there into the heart land of China?
