Could any of the communist goverments of Eastern Europe have survived the Soviet Collapse?

Assuming a time line in which the communist party does not remian in power in Russia itself which nation of Eastern Europe (or ex Soviet republic) has the best chance of remaining committed to communism. I have always found it interesting that even a nation like Albania that had split with the USSR a long time previously was not able to weather the general collapse. Would it have been possible for some nation like Yugoslavia or Albania to survive the general collapse. Or prehaps for one of the ex- Soviet republics like Belarus to remian committed to communism?
 
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A Serbia where Milosevic becomes a major simp for his wife and allows her to run things looks like a Stalinist hellhole rather than just a nationalist one with socialist tendencies

Belarus is a likely choice considering how little of a market economy existed. The trappings of Communism were popular, economically it was a near thing, and really, Lukashenko when he took power was heading in this direction if the country wasn't so economically dependent on Russia and private investment from it

Romania and Albania were possible. The growth of opposition came as surprises in both

I think Moldova is also a possibility
 
Since the exemple of Nord Korea was brought up,
How about a more positive one,one of them implements Deng still economic reforms,
Didn't Romnaia manage to get most favoured clause form USA in 1975 or something like that,so how about they also start implementing some economic reforms in the same period,turning Romania in europes China rather then North Korea.
 
A Serbia where Milosevic becomes a major simp for his wife and allows her to run things looks like a Stalinist hellhole rather than just a nationalist one with socialist tendencies

Belarus is a likely choice considering how little of a market economy existed. The trappings of Communism were popular, economically it was a near thing, and really, Lukashenko when he took power was heading in this direction if the country wasn't so economically dependent on Russia and private investment from it

Romania and Albania were possible. The growth of opposition came as surprises in both

I think Moldova is also a possibility
Re: Romania. I know this sounds tinfoil hattish, but during the revolution there was a leak of a meeting of the anti-Ceausescu camp where someone was filmed saying "comrades, the national salvation front has been functioning for six months". The implication being that the revolution in Romania was not, or at least more than, a spontaneous revolt of enraged and oppressed people.

There's always been a conspiracy theory that 1989 was partly an effort by Gorby to bounce the old guard of the E. Europe CP leaderships out of their positions and replace with reforming Gorby clones. Well, it's a theory, but it's also a conspiracy theory. You see the problem. But I do remember during the Velvet revolution in Prague, young Russian solders were photographed lighting candles at the spot where Jan Palach burned himself to death in 1969, in protest against the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. There's no way they did that on personal initiative, come on!

But even if that story is true, I don't think anything is going to survive of the old system, once Poland breaks free, and East Germany collapses. An important factor is the realisation by the party bosses - old guard Joe fans and Gorby clones alike - that they could convert themselves into a new capitalist boss class.
 
The biggest problems is that none of the Eastern European countries had legitimacy(outside Yugoslavia and maybe Albania). The grass roots of all those countries considered their governments to be puppet governments at best colonial overlords at worst. Once it was clear the Red Army would do nothing they were going to fall. Yugoslavia and Albania have the best shot. They faced another problem that by not following the other countries out many in those two countries felt they would look backward and cowardly in not overthrowing such an obsolete system.
 
But I do remember during the Velvet revolution in Prague, young Russian solders were photographed lighting candles at the spot where Jan Palach burned himself to death in 1969, in protest against the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. There's no way they did that on personal initiative, come on!

Who says that those young Soviet soldiers supported the Soviet system, though, or Moscow's control of Eastern Europe? I know an Estonian man who is still traumatized due to the fact that he had to serve in the Soviet army, even though the USSR was everything he hated. Maybe those young soldiers were Latvian, say, and felt more affinity towards the Czechs yearning for freedom than for Moscow?
 
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Who says that those young Soviet soldiers supported the Soviet system, though, or Moscow's control of Eastern Europe? I know an Estonian man who is still traumatized due to the that he had to serve in the Soviet army, even though the USSR was everything he hated. Maybe those young soldiers were Latvian, say, and felt more affinity towards the Czechs yearning for freedom than for Moscow?
Or even somewhere loyalty to the USSR was divided like Ukraine or Georgia.
 
Maybe if allowed to pioneer smaller gradual freedoms under a charismatic leader one might survive long enough to be recognized as semi-legitimate by historians. Or the charismatic leader might be elected without the Party as a monolithic organ.
 
None of those countries would have been communist without the Soviet Union and the speed with which they discarded communism as soon as the USSR started to fail is revealing.
 
Who says that those young Soviet soldiers supported the Soviet system, though, or Moscow's control of Eastern Europe? I know an Estonian man who is still traumatized due to the fact that he had to serve in the Soviet army, even though the USSR was everything he hated. Maybe those young soldiers were Latvian, say, and felt more affinity towards the Czechs yearning for freedom than for Moscow?
That's a point I should have thought of, and you may be right - but if they were that alienated from the system (because they were from one of the Baltics, or some other reason), would they have felt comfortable letting themselves be photographed by the world press doing what they did?
 
Assuming a time line in which the communist party does not remian in power in Russia itself which nation of Eastern Europe (or ex Soviet republic) has the best chance of remaining committed to communism. I have always found it interesting that even a nation like Albania that had split with the USSR a long time previously was not able to weather the general collapse. Would it have been possible for some nation like Yugoslavia or Albania to survive the general collapse. Or prehaps for one of the ex- Soviet republics like Belarus to remian committed to communism?
Certainly, at least in some countries.

Albania and Bulgaria seem to be the most straight-forward candidates. In these two countries, the communist parties had the support of the people untill the very end (Just look at the results of the 1991 Albanian Parliamentary Elections and the 1990 Bulgarian Contitutional Assembly Election)
and socialism was eventually abandoned not due to popular pressure but because revisionism and social-democraticism had become dominant within the party itself.

There are other possibilities, too. Romania and Belarus are often mentioned in debates like this and I do think these ideas have some merit. Seldomly mentioned, however, are countries like the GDR, Ukraine, Serbia and Moldova.

Though the party had lost the confidence of the people by early 1989 (after the scandal around the 1989 Municipal Elections), the East German opposition groups that initiated the first Monday demonstrations didn't seek to abolish socialism, but to renew it. The 'New Forum' and 'Democracy Now!' publicly advocated for the democratization of socialism and vehemently opposed the idea of a West German annexation of the GDR. This only changed after the fall of socialism in Poland and Hungary, and the eventual opening of the Berlin wall. Had the party removed Honecker and begun a dialogue with the opposition a year earlier than in OTL, socialism in Eastern Germany might well have survived to this very day.

During the 1990 Elections the CPSU (Ukraine) had won 73% of the seats in the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR, despite the fact that an organized anti-socialist opposition movement existed. Had the Ukrainian section of the party managed to retain the support of the people, the Ukrainian SSR might well have outlived the Union itself.

As for Serbia, the SPS (successor of the League of Communists of Serbia) won the 1990 Serbian General Elections, gaining 65% of the popular votes. Had the party remained a communist one (instead of beeing hijacked by Serbian Nationalists), Serbia could have survived as a socialist country.

As for Moldova, it's doubtfull the Moldovan SSR could've survived. However the Party of Communists of Moldova won every Parliamentary Elections between 2001 and 2010 (it lost the 2014 elections to the Party of Socialists). Despite having archieves an absolute majority in Parliament, the party decided to retain the current bourgeois-democratic system. Had it decided to construct a proletarian dictatorship, Moldova could well be a socialist country AGAIN today. I wonder how this would affect the conflict with Transnistria.
 
That's a point I should have thought of, and you may be right - but if they were that alienated from the system (because they were from one of the Baltics, or some other reason), would they have felt comfortable letting themselves be photographed by the world press doing what they did?
By that time Communism was starting to break down in the USSR itself and you had Perestroika.
 

mial42

Gone Fishin'
None of those countries would have been communist without the Soviet Union and the speed with which they discarded communism as soon as the USSR started to fail is revealing.
This isn't exactly true. Neither Yugoslavia nor Albania were dependent on Soviet support to remain Communist. The significance of the USSR's failure wasn't so much that the USSR was no longer able to enforce Communism in Eastern Europe (although that was important, especially in Poland), it was that the USSR's failure showed that Communism... just didn't work as well as mixed-market liberal capitalism on its own terms. Communism promised equality, higher living standards, higher economic growth, faster technological advancement, and military strength. For most of the Cold War, the USSR seemed to be delivering that; sure, it was behind the West, but it had been behind for centuries and was devastated thrice over in WW1, the RCW, and WW2. By the late 1980s, however, it was increasingly clear that Communism wasn't delivering on any of those very well any more. What this meant is that even true-believing Communists in much of Eastern Europe started to support democratic and liberalizing reforms, since they believed in the previously-mentioned list of things, and it was increasingly clear that liberal democracy delivered them better than Communism.
 
By that time Communism was starting to break down in the USSR itself and you had Perestroika.
But one reason for that was the demoralisation of the system in general and the armed forces in particular. I'm not saying that it's impossible that young Russian conscripts would have shown political initiative like that, but I still think it's unlikely. This wasn't like 1917 when political agitators in the army were driving thousands of soldiers to vote with their feet.

And if those kids had lit those candles as a political statement, why leave it there? Why not make a statement about why you're lighting those candles? "We feel solidarity with Jan Palach" or something like that? I do remember that photo, I don't remember any statement.
 
But one reason for that was the demoralisation of the system in general and the armed forces in particular. I'm not saying that it's impossible that young Russian conscripts would have shown political initiative like that, but I still think it's unlikely. This wasn't like 1917 when political agitators in the army were driving thousands of soldiers to vote with their feet.

And if those kids had lit those candles as a political statement, why leave it there? Why not make a statement about why you're lighting those candles? "We feel solidarity with Jan Palach" or something like that? I do remember that photo, I don't remember any statement.

Because you are overthinking it? Why are you assuming they are Russian, they could have been Latvian, Ukrainian or Georgian for all you know. They probably thought they were making a statement merely lighting the candles. All people are different and how they act in various circumstances vary. You are making much ado about nothing.
 
Assuming a time line in which the communist party does not remian in power in Russia itself which nation of Eastern Europe (or ex Soviet republic) has the best chance of remaining committed to communism. I have always found it interesting that even a nation like Albania that had split with the USSR a long time previously was not able to weather the general collapse. Would it have been possible for some nation like Yugoslavia or Albania to survive the general collapse. Or prehaps for one of the ex- Soviet republics like Belarus to remian committed to communism?
Once Gorbachev made it clear the Red Army would not intervene to guarantee the continuity of the communist system in the Warsaw Pact countries, the genie was out of the bottle. The 1989 summer protests in Hungary could have fizzled then and there had Gorbachev been willing (or able) to perpetuate the Moscow Doctrine (like the Monroe Doctrine in its own way).

The moment it became clear the ruling elites would not be propped up by Soviet tanks the question then became whether said regimes had the capacity to adapt quickly to the changing circumstances. Sclerotic as they had become, the inevitable outcome was in the negative. Indeed, in Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary, Communism fell not with a bang but with a whimper - the whole edifice was found to be built on sand. As with other internal political collapses (France 1940, South Vietnam 1975), it wasn't as though they lacked the means to survive but they lacked the will.

There were two variations - in East Germany, the initial demands were not for reunification but as the way to the West was opened, the state itself faced the notion of becoming unviable via depopulation. In 1989-90, there was a migration, especially of young women, from the DDR to the FRG - the Berlin Wall had done what it was supposed to but once it fell, the issue which had bedevilled East Germany in the 1950s returned with a vengeance. In 1990, the idea that was the DDR walked or drove to the west - it left a country of young men and older people which couldn't survive economically - unification became an inevitable consequence but it was not what those in New Forum or those marching in Leipzig or Dresden in the autumn of 1989 had wanted.

As for Romania, unlike the other East European countries where, while changes to the leadership had occurred within the Party, there was no sense of a dynastic approach, Ceaucescu had made the country a vassal to him and his family. Oddly enough, it was more akin to Saddam's Iraq than Honecker's DDR. Ceaucescu's flight and end was a mixture of what might have happened to Saddam or to Mussolini under different circumstances. Once the power of patronage and terror was broken, he and his family literally had no one and nothing. No one owed them residual loyalty or respect so their lives were forfeit in a way Honecker's wasn't. There was little or no sense of a bloodlust in other Warsaw pact countries - they might have wanted the old leadership gone and perhaps tried but there was not the desire for physical revenge witnessed in Bucharest. I've little doubt Ceaucescu would have been lynched by the mob.

The sudden nature of the fall of the Communist leadership left a huge vacuum - in those countries which had at some point resisted Moscow, those survivors of that resistance came back to prominence be it Walesa and Dubcek to give two examples. Dubcek still thought, pace Gorbachev, it was possible to reform communism but the tide of history swept past him to Havel.

In Romania, there are plenty of accounts of various groups making it up as they went along in radio and tv studios - without a centralising opposition figure, what you saw was a coup against Ceaucescu and his family by those communists who had been marginalised by the dictator such as Iliescu. It wasn't a complete rejection of Communism but a rejection of the leader, his family and their entourage.
 
Once Gorbachev made it clear the Red Army would not intervene to guarantee the continuity of the communist system in the Warsaw Pact countries, the genie was out of the bottle. The 1989 summer protests in Hungary could have fizzled then and there had Gorbachev been willing (or able) to perpetuate the Moscow Doctrine (like the Monroe Doctrine in its own way).

The moment it became clear the ruling elites would not be propped up by Soviet tanks the question then became whether said regimes had the capacity to adapt quickly to the changing circumstances. Sclerotic as they had become, the inevitable outcome was in the negative.
I don't think the governments in Czechoslovakia, Poland and Hungary could have survived not being backed up by the Soviet military no matter how nimble they would have been. They were seen as being complete puppets of Moscow and had virtually zero legitimacy among the populace. Soviet heavy handedness bit them on the butt. Once it was clear that the Red Army was not going to intervene those governments were going to go on their way out. Fortunately for everyone they realized that quickly and gave up before a short lived civil war broke out and them losing their heads.
 
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