China warlord era without world wars

[Ohfshkssgb]

POD is Fredrick I survives and dismisses Bismarck. He liberalizes his country. He assists Britain to successfully join the Triple Alliance. He progressively gives up all his political power the legislature toward the end of life. This makes German political system similar to that of UK. Entente abstains from antagonising the Triple Alliance out fear that France's war effort will collapse from it's blockade leaving Russia alone against the alliance. But as in OTL Yuan Shikai overthrows the Republic of China becoming the Emperor in 1915 and dies in 1916 creating a power vaccum causing the warlord era. This gives the West a blank cheque in China

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

Will China get colonized ?

 

[Lalli]

Will China get colonized ?

Completely? No. But partially surely. Russia would take Xinjiang, Mongolia and Manchuria. Japan try get more influence and Europeans take some economic advantages.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

POD is Fredrick I survives and dismisses Bismarck. He liberalizes his country. He assists Britain to successfully join the Triple Alliance. He progressively gives up all his political power the legislature toward the end of life. This makes German political system similar to that of UK.

ASB (see post)

 

[The_Persian_Cat]

Germany will still contend for global influence with Britain and France, even if outright war doesn't break out in 1914. Germany was still a rising power, and had practical as well as ideological goals which conflicted with British and French interests. I think that China would be a theatre for the European powers to compete, with Germany investing heavily in the conflict. I imagine Germany would be a key supporter of the Chinese Republic, since they had the greatest political legitimacy, the best chance of reuniting China, and had similar interests to Germany (namely, reducing British/French/Japanese influence over China and asserting Chinese independence).

A lot of this would probably depend on what happens in Russia, though. I don't think that the Russian Empire would fall apart as dramatically without the First World War, but if Germany has aligned itself with Britain and France, then Russia would probably be the force the three would wish to contain. Maybe Japan and the Ottoman Empire (Russia's perennial rivals) could be German allies in China? Idk.

 

[Elfwine]

Yeah, this looks like a situation where conflict between the Western powers has been postponed, rather than one where they have good relations with each other so far as the inherent conflicts between the desires of a rising power and the desires of status quo powers.

That would be fairly messy in and for China, but not ideal within Europe either.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

His massive Anglophilia is well-known, but Britain was in the period of splendid isolation, therefore nothing would have been achieved in this direction.

You lost me when you argued against real history by start up dismissing Britain's attempts at joining the Triple Alliance

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

. I imagine Germany would be a key supporter of the Chinese Republic, since they had the greatest political legitimacy, the best chance of reuniting China, and had similar interests to Germany (namely, reducing British/French/Japanese influence over China and asserting Chinese independence).

But Chinese Republic also wanted to reduce German influence over China which is a conflict of interest that can't be overcome

 

[The_Persian_Cat]

But Chinese Republic also wanted to reduce German influence over China which is a conflict of interest that can't be overcome

The KMT would have to weigh its options, and Britain exercised much greater influence than Germany, and had a longer history of exploitation. Germany was at least an alternative to Britain, and one which China could play off against. Plus, in OTL, Weimar Germany followed a policy of friendship towards the KMT, as both felt resentment towards the Allies of WW1. This changed, of course, after the Nazis took power and aligned with Japan.

 

[Ohfshkssgb]

Plus, in OTL, Weimar Germany followed a policy of friendship towards the KMT, as both felt resentment towards the Allies of WW1. This changed, of course, after the Nazis took power and aligned with Japan.

There is a world of difference between German Empire and Weimar Germany as the latter formed in direct opposition to the former

 

[The_Persian_Cat]

There is a world of difference between German Empire and Weimar Germany as the latter formed in direct opposition to the former

Okay, but the incentives set -- resentment towards the British Empire -- remains the same. And likewise, China's alignment with Germany had the same motivations -- though they had fought on opposite sides of WW1, Germany was not perceived as having betrayed China like Britain had.