Chaos: The Presidential Election of 1996 v1.2

[Jasen777]

From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

The congressional races were nearly as interesting as the presidential race. 1994 had been a banner year for Republicans, and 1996, as expected, generally saw a bounce back for Democrats. In the Senate, this was obscured by the rotating nature of the elections, and the Republicans picked up two seats to increase their majority to 55-45. The picture was different in the House of Representatives however, as the Democrats threaten to retake the chamber. They picked up 17 seats, but in the end, the Democrats failed to topple the Republican majority. The final tally was 219-216.*

In the presidential race, when no one wins a majority of the electoral vote, the election goes to the House of Representatives. The vote then is by state instead of by representative, so it's necessary to take a look at the state delegation breakdown. The Republicans controlled 26 delegations, the exact number needed to be selected as President. Democrats controlled 21 delegations, and 3 were split. (See map on the next page). This gave Dole the inside track for the presidency, despite finishing third in both the popular and electoral vote. The Vice-President selection falls to the Senate in this situation, but they are only to choose between the top two vice-presidential candidates in the electoral vote. This caused a weird situation where the party in the majority did not have their party's candidate up for the vote. The Republican majority would have to decide between Gore and former Republican but Independent candidate Voinovich...

* - In this chapter independent Representative Bernard Sanders of Vermont is counted as a Democrat since he caucused with them.


House State Delegation Control

Red = Republican
Blue = Democrat
Gray = Split

 

[Jasen777]

Dole Not Voted In - Deadlock Continues

Just when the country was braced for a third place candidate wining the presidency, House Republicans suffered a defeat. Republicans control 26 of the state delegations and therefore Dole's victory was assumed. However, their bid suffered from two defections. Delaware's only representative, Michael Castle declined to vote. A moderate pro-choice Republican, Castle stated that he could not justify voting for Dole when his state had rejected him, but neither could he vote for Clinton. He hinted he might be open to voting for Powell if a genuine compromise movement arose. The Republican's second defection came from Iowa. In a surprise move, Representative Jim Leach announced his support for Powell, citing his disagreement with Dole's pandering to the right wing of the Republican Party. This move split the Iowa delegation 2-2-1 and thus prevented them from voting. These defections left the vote at 24 for Dole, 21 for Clinton, and 5 non-votes. Thus Dole came up two states short of the needed 26 to win the presidency. Two more votes were held afterwards, with the same results...


Editorial -
The Six Men who could be President

Yesterday's surprise vote by the House of Representatives has thrown the whole presidential picture into chaos. Dole's victory no longer seems certain. Let's take a look at the ways in which six different men could now be president.

Dole - This is the simplest outcome. If the Republicans get their defections back, they do control 26 House delegations and they can vote him into office.

Powell - If the House remains deadlocked, perhaps Powell could emerge as the compromise candidate. He did win the popular vote after all.

Clinton - The House could vote him back into office, although with the Republicans controlling 26 state delegations, it is hard to see how this would happen.

Gore - The Senate votes for the vice-president. If the House remains unable to come to a decision, the Senate's choice will become acting president. Without a Republican candidate, perhaps Gore could persuade the Senate to vote for him.

Voinovich - Or perhaps the Senate could be persuaded to vote for the former Republican governor turned independent.

Gingrich - If the House and the Senate both fail to elect someone, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will become acting president on Jan. 20th. Hopefully this scenario does not happen…

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I wonderabout Powell's political skills. Although Eisenhower did pretty well, I wouldn't think the military is good training for politics.
I

 

[Jasen777]

From Chaos: A History of the 1996 Presidential Election -

The House's failure to select a president put more pressure on the Senate, which had been hoping to avoid voting on the vice-presidency until the House had decided the presidency. Gathering on Monday, they managed what the House did not, coming to a successful conclusion to their appointed responsibility on the first ballot. By a 52 to 45 vote, with 3 Republicans abstaining, the Senate made George Voinovich Vice-President Elect. For the Republicans, he was their preferred candidate over Vice-President Gore. (Buchanan was ineligible because he was not in the top two for electoral votes for vice-president). The Democrats did not have the votes to appoint Gore, but they did have enough to boycott and prevent a quorum if they had wished. The prospect of an Acting President Gingrich (no matter how short lived his reign may be) may have caused them to bow to the inevitable. The focus then shifted back to the House, and word came that Representative Leach would change his vote and support Dole. This gave Dole the support of 25 state delegations, and the pressure aimed at Representative Michael Castle had to be getting very intense…


Jan. 9th - News Article

Third Place's a Charm: Dole becomes President-Elect
Voinovich to be Vice-president

Senator Dole, who finished in third place in both the popular vote and the electoral vote, was selected by the House yesterday to be the next president. This success was made possible by the return of Representatives Leach and Castle to the Republican Party's wishes. "We had no choice," Castle said. "If we hadn't selected a candidate, it could have gridlocked the whole government and caused a constitutional crisis. Dole was the only one who was in a position to win the vote and so I had to support him." This came after the decision by the Senate earlier in the day that made independent candidate George Voinovich the Vice-President Elect. This produces the unusual situation of a vice-president who had not run on the president's ticket. The conflict should be minimal however, as Voinovich was a Republican until his decision to run with Powell, and was considered a candidate to be the Republican's vice-president nominee before Buchanan gained the spot...


From the autobiography of Dick Morris-

So my campaign to win Powell the presidency was not successful. I took solace in the fact that it was the most successful run for an independent candidate ever. Of course, gaining the vice-presidency was an amusing turn of events. The maneuvering in the House was very weird. Did Leach and Castle not know the rules? Did they hold out to extract some sort of political concessions? My favorite theory is that Gingrich organized their defection in an attempt to gain the acting-presidency for himself. We'll probably never know…

 

[Jasen777]

Ok, that's the end of the re-positng. The sequel timeline should begin next week.

Who thinks Clinton can survive to run for the presidency again?

 

[Nicomacheus]

Ok, that's the end of the re-positng. The sequel timeline should begin next week.

Who thinks Clinton can survive to run for the presidency again?

On Clinton: on one hand, he hasn't had the worst of the Lewinsky debacle -- no Ken Starr, no "I did not have sex with that woman," no impeachment. However, despite avoiding the rancor, he also avoids being associated with the positive economic trends of the late 90s. The 2nd term followed up on and proved out the triangulation strategies that made Clinton and the DLC look as if they had reinvented the Democratic Party. TTL Clinton will not be the first Democrat since LBJ to be re-elected (and the first since FDR to be relected to a second full term). To some extent, I think part of Clinton's current mystique is nostalgia: people look back on how good the economy seemed before the tech crash and how safe the country felt before 9/11. And of course, Hillary probably has her eye on starting a political career if OTL is any guide. So, I'd say it's hard to see Clinton emerging as a candidate. However, if things get screwed up, perhaps he can emerge Jerry Brown-like as a savior: a second term for Clinton will have a very non-partisan qaulity to it, since he won't be able to run for re-election.

IMO Clinton's future depends on the trajectory of US politics. How does the country respond to President Dole? This situation is going to come much closer to spawning schemes to amend or abolish the Electoral College than OTL 2000 election ever did. Once the general public becomes familiar with the relatively arcane voting procedures the House uses to select the President, there are grounds to at least amend them. Plus it's hard to see that TTL will have any ardent defenders of the status quo; of course, evidence of a problem and outrage agaisnt it do not make a solution inevitable.

It'll be interesting to see where the sequel takes us. Best of luck.

 

[Jasen777]

IMO Clinton's future depends on the trajectory of US politics...

Pretty much what I was thinking.

 

[Jasen777]

From: Dead on Arrival - The Story of the Dole Presidency

Election fallout -

Politicians and pundits had of course already been decrying the possibility of a Dole Presidency. The public, by and large, had however taken a more wait and see approach to the situation (hoping for a Clinton or Powell victory in the House that was never likely). This changed when the House finally selected Dole and made him President-Elect.

The public reacted with anger at the obvious unfairness. Dole had finished third in the popular vote, with only 27.3% of the vote. Over 72 percent of the country had not voted for Dole. Dole had even finished third in the electoral vote as well. That fact that Dole was stuck with Vice-President George Voinovich, a person he had not ran with, was a further irritant, but not one that the average voter cared that much about.

Dole's favorability ratings, already low, dropped even further. Many people began to talk about Dole being a four-year lame duck. One Democratic Representative declared that the Dole Presidency was "dead on arrival," a phrase that was used to describe bills that had no chance of passing….

The election had left the Republicans in an unusual, likely unprecedented, situation. They had captured the Presidency after the four year Clinton interruption, and had held on to their majority in both houses of Congress. However, Dole's popularity was threatening historical lows even as he was being sworn in, and Congress' popularity was plummeting as well...


Buchanan and Cabinet Selection -

During the campaign there had been constant rumors of friction between Dole and Buchanan. The lid was blown off the story after election night when word leaked that Buchanan blamed their poor popular vote result on Dole's “uninspired campaigning.” That of course failed to make Dole like him more.

The real break however came after the House had officially voted Dole into the Presidency. Due to Constitutional rules, Buchanan had been ineligible to be selected to the Vice-Presidency. Buchanan though that as Dole's running mate he was entitled to the Secretary of State position, not withstanding the bad blood between the two. Dole however had never liked Buchanan and had had him practically forced upon him as his running mate. When Buchanan had requested the position and Dole did not immediately offer to nominate him for it (suggesting the Labor or Interior positions instead) the rift became permanent...

One of the reasons Dole didn't offer the Secretary of State job to Buchanan was because he had already offered it to Colin Powell. Dole was well aware that the unusual nature of his election would pose legitimacy issues. It was thought the best way to mitigate those would be to form a “Unity Cabinet.” The center-piece of the plan was the offer of the State position to Powell. But serious effort was made to include leading Democrats in the Cabinet as well. Inquiries were made to Al Gore and Hillary Clinton if they would be interested in Cabinet posts. Powell, Gore, and Clinton all declined. Powell appeared to be the only one to even give it serious consideration, but all 3 likely decided that cabinet positions under Dole would not be in the best of interest of furthering their political careers.

Dole then turned to Democrats of lesser stature, and even asked several of the secretaries under Clinton to stay on. This met with little success, as Democrats saw little reason to join what figured to be an unpopular administration and appeared to be under pressure from their national party leaders to avoid giving Dole any political cover by joining a unity cabinet. The only success Dole had with Democrats was when Jesse Brown, the Secretary of Veterans Affairs, agreed to stay in his position.

With little time left before his inauguration, and needing to send nominations to the Senate shortly, Dole had little choice but to rely heavily on the Republican Party establishment for Cabinet Secretaries. These were often experienced people who had served in previous Republican administrations and largely did not have plans for future elected office. A few businessmen were also pulled into the Cabinet...

The Dole Administration showed the same trend in filling other positions, demonstrated aptly by his Chief of Staff, Howard Baker....

Most of Dole's picks for cabinet posts were quickly confirmed by the Senate. The Republicans had a majority in the Senate and many of the Democrats were already counting on a Republican disaster in '98 and basically wanted to get out of the way and let it happen. This of course did not stop them from highlighting Dole making free (though legal at the time) use of ABM's private jets during Paul Mulhollem's hearings, though they didn't filibuster and the Agriculture Secretary was confirmed 52-44.

Perhaps the most controversial nomination though was that of Arlen Specter for Attorney General. Here Dole faced backlash from his own party due to Specter's pro-choice position. Some pro-life Senators lead by Orinn Hatch attempted to filibuster the confirmation vote, but were defeated when a large number of Democrats joined with the more moderate Republicans to quash any filibuster and succeeded in confirming the nomination. Ironically, the unusual nature of the election likely helped Dole in this instance. He was left with less time than normal to put together a Cabinet, and much of that time was spent on the failed “Unity Cabinet” attempt (it's commonly thought that Dole first offered the Attorney General position to Hillary Clinton). Dole's announcement that he would nominate Specter came only 2 days before the Senate began his hearing. This may have prevented a full-scale right-wing revolt...


Dole's Cabinet (1997)

State – Richard Cheney

Treasury – Jack Kemp

Defense – Donald Rumsfeld

Attorney General – Arlen Specter

Interior – Alan Simpson

Agriculture - Paul Mulhollem

Commerce - Paul O'Neill

Labor - Lynn Martin

Health and Human Services - Carroll A. Campbell

Housing and Urban Development - Arthur Fletcher

Transportation - Thomas Kean

Energy - Joe Moeller

Education - Lamar Alexander

Veterans Affairs - Jesse Brown

 

[historybuff]

Oh boy, this won't end well, Wonder if Powell will try to run again in the next election.

 

[Jasen777]

Oh boy, this won't end well,

Who knows? Not me...

 

[Photovoltaic Array]

I remember this timeline from a while ago... requesting more updates. It sounds too good to let go, especially with this administration.

 

[vultan]

Wait, so what did Buchanan get, if anything? Maybe he could be given Dole's (or someone else who was selected for the Cabinet) vacant Senate seat...

 

[jerseyrules]

I think Jerry brown would've fit the bill (moderate dem etc) in 96. Would've been interesting to see Powell campaign as a closet libertarian; great tl!

BTW major de ja vu - republican governor turned independent for political gain... Hint: My family lives in Florida.

 

[Jasen777]

Thanks for the comments. I will be updating this sporadically now that my novel writing is going slower.

Wait, so what did Buchanan get, if anything? Maybe he could be given Dole's (or someone else who was selected for the Cabinet) vacant Senate seat...

He got nothing. At least up to the time of Dole's inauguration. He is unlikely to take it well.

 

[Jasen777]

From: The History of American Electoral Reform

It was not surprising that the 1996 election lead to popular discord with the electoral college system and a ground well of support for amending it or abolishing it altogether. Particularly grating was how the House had authority to set aside any consideration for the popular, or even the electoral, vote in an indecisive election.

Changing the electoral college system would not be easy however. There were several obstacles in the way. Republicans feared any change would be a de facto admission that Dole was an illegitimate president and that such an act would end any chance for the Dole presidency to succeed. The establishments of both parties feared that a change could lead to more independent and third party candidates having the success that Perot and Powell had enjoyed. Smaller states were concerned about becoming overlooked completely, and traditional swing states did not want to risk losing their importance. In addition, the most straight forward way to address the issue would be by a constitutional amendment, and the voting thresholds in Congress and the large number of states needed to pass an amendment would make any such process difficult.

Added to those obstacles was the disagreement on just how to change the electoral college and/or what to replace it with. The public seemed to want a popular vote, but did it make sense to have a candidate win the presidency with only 36% of the vote? Should there then be a run-off if no candidate had 50% of the vote? Would there be time for a run-off campaign and re-vote without delaying the inauguration, especially considering there could be a logistically difficult nation-wide recount? Or could something like instant-run off voting be employed? Others did not mind the electoral college that much and just wanted to end the House' role in the process. People with this view proposed schemes such as the electoral college run-off method - in cases where no candidate received an electoral majority, there would be a run-off between the top two electoral vote earners, to be decided by the electoral college method instead of a poplar vote.

Several representatives proposed to introduce amendments to change or abolish the electoral college, but were prevented by the House leadership from doing so. Another proposal was the National Popular Vote State Compact. It would see states agree to pledge their electors to the winner of the national popular vote. This had the virtue of avoiding the difficult amendment process, but would require a number of states representing an electoral college majority to ratify it before it would be implemented. This plan was slow to get started but received a major boost in the 1998 election when California voters approved it...

 

[vultan]

YAY! Update! Can we expect them more frequently?

Also, were any of the 1998 midterms different?

 

[Jasen777]

YAY! Update! Can we expect them more frequently?

Yes, but no guarantee as to how much more so.

Also, were any of the 1998 midterms different?

That was just a little peak ahead on a specific issue. The 1998 elections will be covered later.

 

[vultan]

That was just a little peak ahead on a specific issue. The 1998 elections will be covered later.

Crap, sorry. I meant the 1996 midterms. Or, I mean, congressional and gubernatorial races. Sorry, long day.

 

[Jasen777]

Crap, sorry. I meant the 1996 midterms. Or, I mean, congressional and gubernatorial races. Sorry, long day.

I just touched on the congressional races briefly (first post on this page). The Democrats did slightly better than OTL due largely to greater turnout.

 

[NickCT]

It looks good, but why wasn't Buchanan the GOP VP Nominee by the time rolled around to vote in the Senate? I missed that...