Chaos: The Presidential Election of 1996 v1.2

[Jasen777]

It looks good, but why wasn't Buchanan the GOP VP Nominee by the time rolled around to vote in the Senate? I missed that...

The Senate is only allowed to select between the top 2 VP candidates in electoral votes. Buchanan was third behind Voinovich and Gore, and so was ineligible. This is unlike the House which gets to vote from among the top 3 candidates for President.

 

[NickCT]

The Senate is only allowed to select between the top 2 VP candidates in electoral votes. Buchanan was third behind Voinovich and Gore, and so was ineligible. This is unlike the House which gets to vote from among the top 3 candidates for President.

oh! okay thanks. keep this going it's becoming really interesting!

 

[vultan]

I just touched on the congressional races briefly (first post on this page). The Democrats did slightly better than OTL due largely to greater turnout.

Do we still get the return of Ron Paul?

 

[Jasen777]

Do we still get the return of Ron Paul?

Yes, he barely pulled the win out.

 

[vultan]

Yes, he barely pulled the win out.

In an environment as politically fractured as this, he might have an important role coming up. Him, Ralph Nader, and especially Pat Buchanan (who has a bone to pick).

Eagerly await more!

 

[vultan]

Just so everyone is aware, I nominated this timeline for a Turtledove for Best New Modern Era timeline!

 

[Glen]

I am saddened by Alma's death, but it does make for an interesting timeline - however, POD places it in Future History section, so away it goes...

 

[Jasen777]

1995 POD goes in future history? For a timeline that will be fortunate to get to 2001? That's just silly.

There's some reason to have the Turtledoves like that to reduce categories, but this is in no way FH.

 

[AbeLincoln1865]

Glen I almost feel you are going a little crazy with the movings. Now some are justified but this is too much.
(please don't ban or kick me)

 

[modelcitizen]

I shall subscribe.

Any timeline with an intro that reads nicely and promises to end before present time is worthy of interest, I think.

 

[Penelope]

I am saddened by Alma's death, but it does make for an interesting timeline - however, POD places it in Future History section, so away it goes...

IN THE FAR OFF FUTURE OF 1995...

 

[Glen]

I am saddened by Alma's death, but it does make for an interesting timeline - however, POD places it in Future History section, so away it goes...

Now that I have had more sleep - I have reconsidered and I do believe that this belongs in After 1900 - my apologies for the confusion and disruption.

 

[Jasen777]

1997-1998 -

Congressional Actions

On Jan. 21 1997, Bob Dole was sworn in as the 43rd president of the United States. His initial approval rating was 34%, unprecedentedly low for a newly inaugurated president. Congress' approval rating was just as low, and Newt Gingrich’s was even lower. The Republican brand had been badly damaged by the 1996 campaign and the matter in which the House had determined the election against the popular vote. Although Democrats also had voted party line in the presidential selection and there was a backlash against the political establishment in general, they were not hurt nearly as badly as the Republicans in the court of public opinion.

None of this changed the fact that the Republicans would hold the reigns of government for at least two years. There would be difficulties however. Moderate Republicans often failed to toe the party line, especially in the Senate, and Democrats had the votes to filibuster in the Senate if they wished to.

Things got even worse for Newt Gingrich when he was brought up on ethics charges in the House of Representatives. Fearing that Gingrich was already an election liability, and not wanting to see the first conviction of a sitting speaker, House Majority Leader Dick Armey, House Majority Whip Tom Delay, and Republican Conference Chairman John Boehner started a movement to vote him out as speaker. Gingrich decided to resign rather than face a leadership challenge and was replaced by New York Representative and Chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Bill Paxon.

Despite its unpopularity and infighting, the 105th Congress did manage to pass some significant legislation. Perhaps the most dramatic was the Tax Payer Relief Act of 1997. Marginal tax rates were cut for all income levels, capital gains tax was slashed to 19% and the estate tax exemption was raised significantly. Although tax cuts are generally politically popular, Democrats criticized the act for favoring the rich and for being a thinly veiled attempt to buy votes. They were joined by some Republicans as well in criticizing it for causing it to be impossible to form a balanced budget. Most notably, the Secretary of Commerce, Paul O'Neill, resigned in protest over the act and from frustration of being edged out of influence in the Cabinet by Kemp and Cheney, to whom the quote “deficits don't matter” was attributed.

With perhaps even more controversy than the Tax Payer Relief Act, Congress passed the Iraqi Liberation Act, which called for regime changed in Iraq, as a response to Iraq's questionable cooperation with U.N. Weapons inspectors. Some Democratic congress members blasted it as “a de facto declaration of war.” It appeared that certain figures in the Cabinet lobbied Dole for direct military action to overthrow Saddam, but Dole was more concerned about bin Laden.

Other significant bills passed by Congress included the Copyright Term Extension Act and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, both of which came under harsh attack from consumer right's groups. In addition, the Glass–Steagall Act was repealed.

Dole and Osama

It was the failure to deal with Osama bin Laden that would become the dominant foreign policy issue of the first half of Dole's administration. Bin Laden had been high on the want list since his role in the training and financing of terrorists had been discovered.

On March 9th, 1998 Dole gave the go ahead to a CIA plan to capture bin Laden from his Kandahar compound using anti-Taliban Afghan forces. The operation went badly awry as bin Laden had been tipped off beforehand. The force the CIA had put together, at considerable expense, was met by an ambush and was soundly defeated. 6 CIA agents died in the operation and CIA agent Michael Smith was captured, along with the CIA plane they had planned to use to fly bin Laden to New York.

A week later Smith was beheaded on video. Dole ordered the military to attack several sites in Afghanistan suspected of being linked with bin Laden with cruise missiles in retaliation. Damage and causalities to bin Laden's network, Al-Qaeda, were thought to be light, most notably, the captured CIA plane had been destroyed. These incidents lead to an increased concern of Islamic terrorism in the U.S. and to increasing criticism of President Dole for his incompetent handling of the situation.

On Oct 28th, Al-Qaeda managed simultaneous bombings of the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, causing hundreds of deaths (including 13 Americans) and thousands of injuries. President Dole responded by ordering cruise missile attacks on suspected Al-Qaeda aligned sites in Afghanistan and Sudan. Most controversial was the destruction of a pharmaceutical plant that the administration claimed was working on producing chemical weapons for bin Laden, a claim that was heavily disputed. Dole also issued a demand that the Taliban government of Afghanistan turn bin Laden over or face the destruction of their regime.

 

[Jasen777]

From: A Electoral History of the United States

It has often been said, and with considerable truth, that the outcome of the mid-term election in 1998 was determined as soon as the House voted Dole into the Presidency. Additionally, the president's party typically lost seats in the mid-terms. Dole's, and Congress', popularity had inched slightly higher
from election day due largely to a strong economy. However, the bin Laden saga stopped Dole's momentum and his approval rating was at 40% heading into the 1998 mid-terms. Democrats had been eagerly looked forward to 1998, expecting to ride a wave of public discontent into congressional power. Optimistic predictions of a gain of 9 seats in the Senate in 70 seats in the House were made.

It was true that the public was upset with House Republicans for giving Dole the presidency, and that the Democrats had cause for optimism. In hindsight however, it is easy to see that their predictions were overly optimistic. After all, it was Powell who had won a plurality of the popular vote, so while there was widespread anger at Republicans, it did not transfer into increase support for Democrats in every race. The African Embassy bombings a mere week before the election had an uncertain effect...

When all the races were counted up, the Democrats did indeed pick up many seats, albeit not as many as they were hoping for. They gained 23 seats in the House and 5 seats in the Senate. Although impressive, this disappointed many Democrats, as it did not match the gains made by the Republicans in 1994. Nevertheless, the Democrats now controlled the House with a majority of 239-196. The Senate became deadlocked at 50 seats for each party and so Senate control rested with independent Vice-President George Voinovich, though as he was a former Republican and as part of a Republican administration it meant that the Republicans would maintain Senate leadership.

 

[Constantinople]

I wonder how terrible the 2000 election will go for the Republicans? I mean I know that the Democrats are disappointed with 1998, but they have momentum...

 

[Jasen777]

I wonder how terrible the 2000 election will go for the Republicans? I mean I know that the Democrats are disappointed with 1998, but they have momentum...

Momentum is a fickle thing. Which is just a way of saying I don't know yet.

 

[Jasen777]

DEMOCRATS TAKE HOUSE – SENATE DEADLOCKED
November 3rd, 1998, CNN.com

“The country has spoken clearly and have rejected the failed leadership of the Republican Party,” Speaker to be Gephardt said at the victory party. The election has given the Democrats a 239-196 majority in the House.



HILLARY CLINTON WINS SENATE SEAT
November 4th, 1998, NY Times

The former First Lady won a narrow victory last night defeating Senator D'Amato 52% to 47%. New Yorkers proved not begrudge her move to their state and elected her after a hard fought battle. Former President Bill Clinton campaigned extensively for her. “I'm very proud” of her he said, “It was my turn to support her political career and I will continue to do so.” Pundits think this all but rules out an attempt on his part to regain the presidency in 2000.



CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN WINS SURPRISING VICTORY
November 4th 1998, Chicago Tribune

Despite being slightly behind in the polls and mired with accusations of corruption, Senator Carol Moseley Braun eked out a narrow 50%-49% come from behind victory over her well-funded challenger, businessman Peter Fitzgerald. 'This victory shows that the people of Illinois rejected the smear tactics and fear mongering of my opponents,” Braun said.



DEMOCRATS OBTAIN NET GAIN OF 6 GOVERNORSHIPS
November 4th, 1998, USATODAY.com

Democrats picked up governorships in: Alabama, California, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Ohio, South Carolina, Rhode Island. These were only balanced by losses in Nevada and Florida. With Minnesota still unclear this brings the total numbers of Democratic governors to 23, the Republicans still hold 25 governorships, and independent Angus King of Maine won his re-election.



BUSH BROTHERS WITHSTAND COUNTRY'S DEMOCRATIC SWING
November 7th, 1998, Weekly Standard

George Bush handily won reelection as Texas governor this week whereas brother Jeb Bush narrowly won the Florida gubernatorial slot. Both men are among the few Republican bright spots in these mid-terms elections, fueling wide-spread speculation that either or both may be future contenders for the presidency.



JESSE VENTURA WINS FINAL RECOUNT
November 11th, 1998, Star Tribune

The eccentric outsider has pulled off what few people thought possible and has won the Governor's race. The independent candidate prevailed in an extremely tight 3-way contest with 33.51%, compared to his Democratic opponent Hubert Humphrey's 33.46% and Republican opponent Norm Coleman's 32.79%. “The people of Minnesota refused to vote for politics as usual,” a triumphant Ventura said at a belated victory party.

 

[vultan]

You know, I don't think I've ever seen any writer of a 90's timeline butterfly away Ventura winning Minnesota in 1998. Spoilers I guess, but I know mine sure won't. It's one of those things you can't do.

Though I must ask, did Perot create the Reform Party as per our timeline (he did it in 1995, well before he jumped in)? If so, did they just not do anything in 1996? Did they endorse Powell? If it didn't form, did Perot run as an independent? Independence Party of Minnesota? Libertarian?

Great stuff as usual.

 

[Jasen777]

You know, I don't think I've ever seen any writer of a 90's timeline butterfly away Ventura winning Minnesota in 1998.

I really considered it, but I couldn't say for certain that anything in my timeline would stop him and I'm going with somewhat limited butterflies out of necessity.

Though I must ask, did Perot create the Reform Party as per our timeline (he did it in 1995, well before he jumped in)? If so, did they just not do anything in 1996? Did they endorse Powell? If it didn't form, did Perot run as an independent? Independence Party of Minnesota? Libertarian?

I didn't consider that very well because I wanted to get Perot out of the way to give Powell as an independent an open shot and rushed that a bit. I'm going to say Perot didn't start the party, admittingly this would likely require me reconning in an additional POD. Perot did not run and eventually endorsed Powell. Ventura ran as an independent.

Great stuff as usual.

Thanks.

 

[Jasen777]

OPERATION MOUNTAIN STRIKE LAUNCHED
November 16th, 1998, USA Today

President Dole announced the beginning of Operation Mountain Strike yesterday evening. In an address to the nation Dole said that the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan left him no choice after they broke off negotiations to turn over Osama bin Laden, a fugitive wanted in connection with the African embassy bombings. “We will show the world that the United States of America will not allow countries to act as safe havens for terrorists,” the President said.

...

Some analysts worry that air power may not be enough to bring Afghanistan to heel. “The President has failed to win support in the region,” said retired General Jake Miller, “the logistics for a ground campaign simply aren't there. Planes based off carriers and from Indian Ocean bases, along with very limited special forces will be all that we can bring to bear. But frankly there is little in Afghanistan worth bombing.”


From: A Brief History of America's Undeclared Wars

The exact events of Operation Mountain Strike's ending are still in dispute, though a general picture of it can now be put forth. After nearly 2 months of bombing the Taliban's war capability had been greatly eroded, to the point that they were losing ground to the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance was made up of several different Afghan groups opposed to the Taliban and was likely receiving some weapons from the U.S. (though the Dole administration denied it).

On Jan. 12nd the Taliban moved to take direct custody of bin Laden. Whether this was a “precaution” or “misunderstanding” as Taliban officials have claimed, or whether it was to hand him over to the International Court (as Pakistan claims) or to the United States (as President Dole claimed) is unknown. In any case something went wrong and a fire-fight broke out between the Taliban and bin Laden's loyalists. Bin Laden died in the fight, and with his death Operation Mountain Strike came to a natural finish.