Challenge: Japan the economic superpower of the world
- Thread starter BlackWave
- Start date
Look at the size of the nations in question. Look at the population. Look at the natural resources. I call ASB
Resources don't matter. Japan's economic power depended and still does depend on production, quality or reliability, cost, efficiency and technology.
I am well aware of this fact, however they are way to based upon the strength of other economies to be able to be as strong as the United States in terms of production etc.
Note that in such scenarios anti-wanking other nations can be just as good as wanking the nation in question.
Natural resources aren't so important (although there are certain fundamental problems with making Greenland a superpower), but population is inescapably important. More people does not mean just a bigger GNP/Cap*population: it also means more thinkers, bigger internal markets, etc. There are such things as "economies of scale."
And technology, cost, efficiency, etc. are things that are _duplicable_ by other first-world countries: challenge and response. First world country per capita GNPs lie in the $20-$40 thousand range, IIRC, with the US near the top, with the exception of a few super-rich teeny tinies. To equal US GNP, Japan, with around 41% US population, needs a GNP/Cap of around $100,000, which is so far ahead of the first-world average that it implies alien assistance or time travellers.
SO, to make Japan no. 1 in 2009, you MUST either (1) increase Japanese population substantially, or (2) seriously kneecap the US, or both.
Other alternative: Japan as the center of an economic coalition that outmuscles the US. Perhaps a non-imperialist Japan (just barely possible with post-1900 PODs) leading some sort of Asian alliance, with a divided China (Trotsyite USSR and North China vs Japan and allies?)
Bruce
Munro made my point about population size exactly.
But what if Japan began its growth in the 19th Century? What I'm thinking is that Japan decides, after doing well industrializing, to begin its empire building earlier, and not be so explicitly racist? What I mean by that is that Japan considered Korea and Taiwan to be parts of Japan itself. Say it does this, and considers those who live in Korea, Manchukuo and Taiwan to be Japanese?
Assuming Japan takes these territories in the early 20th Century (by 1910 or so) and fully integrates them with Japan. The Koreans and Taiwanese at first have major problems with Japan's takeover of them, but over the 1910-1930s Japan's treatment of them swiftly improves, and their standards of living improve dramatically over that time period. By the time Japan invades China in 1936, the Koreans and Taiwanese have come to accept Japanese rule having improved their lives, and Japan has long realized that the Koreans and Taiwanese can do anything that the Japanese can provided they are trained and educated the same.
Manchukuo is still a pain in the ass, however. Japan, realizing that it cannot hold the territory without people loyal to them, gets an offer from Germany in 1938 - we'll send you the Jews, just to get them off our hands. Japan, figuring that the Jews of Germany will support Japan because Japan will be giving them a future, goes for the deal. Between 1938 and the outbreak of war with the USSR in 1942 (which kills any way of transporting the Jews), nearly half a million Jews are sent across the USSR to Manchukuo. Japan's assumption turns out to be correct - the Jews are dedicated, and take to building their new homes with gusto, and during WWII two whole divisions of Jewish soldiers prove to be tough comers. Japan's 414th and 427th Divisions, made up almost entirely of Jewish Manchurian soldiers and led by 1940 by Jewish officers, prove to be among the most feared soldiers of the Japanese Empire. Many of the Jewish officers prove to be efficient spies, too.
Now, Japan's attempted takeover of much of China is here done with far fewer atroctities (no Rape of Nanking, for example), But Japan's actions do, however, eventually force a confrontation with the US.
Japan gets the pulp beaten out of it in WWII, but with many more educated people and much more resources, Japan takes longer to go under, surrendering after Nagoya is nuked in February 1946, and takes considerably more American lives. But with the diehard nationalism of OTL is dead, buried by the Jewish divisions and Japan's 30+ years of integration with of Korea, Taiwan and the Pacific Islands.
Realizing this, the United States allows Korea, Taiwan and Japan to remain one nation, but forces Manchukuo back to China. The Chinese do not have any love at all for the Manchurian Jews, so they end up settling across Northern Korea, and over time fan out across Japan.
The occupation ends in 1953, with the country now known as the United Republic of Japan and Korea. By this time, the country's economic rebirth is well underway, and with communist China and the USSR nearby, the nation's self-defense clause in its consitution is interpreted rather liberally, and the United States sets up a large number of bases across Japan and Korea.
Japan's economic growth accelerates rapidly across the 1950s and 1960s. Without the destruction of the Korean War, Korea is far ahead of where they were in OTL at that point. The destruction of WWII leads to a quite open disgust of hardline nationalism, and this in turns leads to Japan's nationalism, which many Japanese blame for starting the war, becoming viewed with revulsion by the early 1960s.
By the 1970s, the United Republic is already the world's fifth largest economy, blowing into the trillion dollar territory in 1960 and reaching twice that by 1970, with the $5 Billion being passed in 1979. Japan's immense industry, now fueled by substantial immigration and a gigantic trade surplus with the United States - which passes the $150 Billion mark in 1985 - leads to the "Japan Inc" idea. But a slowing rate of natural growth, when combined with the disgust of racism, one of the world's most prosperous economies and a wish to keep the growth coming, allows immigration doors to begin opening in the early 1970s. The country's population soars past the 200 million mark in 1974, passing 250 million in 1998.
The economy hits the $10 Trillion mark in 1997, a significant milestone by any standard.
By 2000, the United Republic, which is commonly referred to as just Japan, is by a vast margin the world's second largest economy. It's not the size of the United States, but its close. Both dwarf all comers easily.
2009 Populations:
USA: 307,943,000
Japan: 272,128,500
2009 GDP:
USA: $14.441 Trillion
Japan: $12.876 Trillion
GDP per capita:
USA: $47,440
Japan: $47,316
But what if Japan began its growth in the 19th Century? What I'm thinking is that Japan decides, after doing well industrializing, to begin its empire building earlier, and not be so explicitly racist? What I mean by that is that Japan considered Korea and Taiwan to be parts of Japan itself. Say it does this, and considers those who live in Korea, Manchukuo and Taiwan to be Japanese?
Assuming Japan takes these territories in the early 20th Century (by 1910 or so) and fully integrates them with Japan. The Koreans and Taiwanese at first have major problems with Japan's takeover of them, but over the 1910-1930s Japan's treatment of them swiftly improves, and their standards of living improve dramatically over that time period. By the time Japan invades China in 1936, the Koreans and Taiwanese have come to accept Japanese rule having improved their lives, and Japan has long realized that the Koreans and Taiwanese can do anything that the Japanese can provided they are trained and educated the same.
Manchukuo is still a pain in the ass, however. Japan, realizing that it cannot hold the territory without people loyal to them, gets an offer from Germany in 1938 - we'll send you the Jews, just to get them off our hands. Japan, figuring that the Jews of Germany will support Japan because Japan will be giving them a future, goes for the deal. Between 1938 and the outbreak of war with the USSR in 1942 (which kills any way of transporting the Jews), nearly half a million Jews are sent across the USSR to Manchukuo. Japan's assumption turns out to be correct - the Jews are dedicated, and take to building their new homes with gusto, and during WWII two whole divisions of Jewish soldiers prove to be tough comers. Japan's 414th and 427th Divisions, made up almost entirely of Jewish Manchurian soldiers and led by 1940 by Jewish officers, prove to be among the most feared soldiers of the Japanese Empire. Many of the Jewish officers prove to be efficient spies, too.
Now, Japan's attempted takeover of much of China is here done with far fewer atroctities (no Rape of Nanking, for example), But Japan's actions do, however, eventually force a confrontation with the US.
Japan gets the pulp beaten out of it in WWII, but with many more educated people and much more resources, Japan takes longer to go under, surrendering after Nagoya is nuked in February 1946, and takes considerably more American lives. But with the diehard nationalism of OTL is dead, buried by the Jewish divisions and Japan's 30+ years of integration with of Korea, Taiwan and the Pacific Islands.
Realizing this, the United States allows Korea, Taiwan and Japan to remain one nation, but forces Manchukuo back to China. The Chinese do not have any love at all for the Manchurian Jews, so they end up settling across Northern Korea, and over time fan out across Japan.
The occupation ends in 1953, with the country now known as the United Republic of Japan and Korea. By this time, the country's economic rebirth is well underway, and with communist China and the USSR nearby, the nation's self-defense clause in its consitution is interpreted rather liberally, and the United States sets up a large number of bases across Japan and Korea.
Japan's economic growth accelerates rapidly across the 1950s and 1960s. Without the destruction of the Korean War, Korea is far ahead of where they were in OTL at that point. The destruction of WWII leads to a quite open disgust of hardline nationalism, and this in turns leads to Japan's nationalism, which many Japanese blame for starting the war, becoming viewed with revulsion by the early 1960s.
By the 1970s, the United Republic is already the world's fifth largest economy, blowing into the trillion dollar territory in 1960 and reaching twice that by 1970, with the $5 Billion being passed in 1979. Japan's immense industry, now fueled by substantial immigration and a gigantic trade surplus with the United States - which passes the $150 Billion mark in 1985 - leads to the "Japan Inc" idea. But a slowing rate of natural growth, when combined with the disgust of racism, one of the world's most prosperous economies and a wish to keep the growth coming, allows immigration doors to begin opening in the early 1970s. The country's population soars past the 200 million mark in 1974, passing 250 million in 1998.
The economy hits the $10 Trillion mark in 1997, a significant milestone by any standard.
By 2000, the United Republic, which is commonly referred to as just Japan, is by a vast margin the world's second largest economy. It's not the size of the United States, but its close. Both dwarf all comers easily.
2009 Populations:
USA: 307,943,000
Japan: 272,128,500
2009 GDP:
USA: $14.441 Trillion
Japan: $12.876 Trillion
GDP per capita:
USA: $47,440
Japan: $47,316
Have Taisho democracy succeed. Difficult but not wholly impossible if the military is placated. I still see Japan intervening in China (this includes Manchuria) as the Kwantung were going to strike regardless of what government was in power. Also, have Japan discover Manchuria's oil to fuel their industrial/military infrastructure. With the proper leadership, Japan holds onto Taiwan, Manchuria, and Korea, fragments and dominates China (this may take decades, especially if Japan manages to reign in the Kwantung Army which has to happen eventually), escapes a ruinous war with the United States, and eventually becomes the dominant power of the Far East, moving in as France and Britain have to withdraw following WWII and their economic ruination by said war.
Problem is the OP requirement of a -- After 1946 POD--
1946
Philippine - Independence. the new Government does not pass the old American Anti Japanese Investment laws.
Manchuria- Chaing Kia does not use the remains of the Japanese Army to enforce KMT control, so the Bulk of the KMT does not deflect to the Commies. The Civil war continues.
SKorea - The US Continues to use the Remains of the Japanese Bureaucracy instead of training US troops to take over.
1947
Rebuilding Japanese firms start investing in the Philippines.
1948
US continues rapid return to Isolation. US Military is back to pre Pearl levels.
Dewey Wins, on a platform of Disengagement.
With the Chinese Civil War still in full force, there is no Move by the KMT to prepare a retreat to Taiwan. No -Taiwan Massacre- of the Japanese Middle Class on the Island.
NATO Treaty fails to pass Congress.
1950
Dewey signs Treaty with Japan ending WW2. Continues to withdraw troops from Europe and Asia.
With the CCW still ongoing, Stalin keeps NKorea in Check. No Korean War, Japanese Bureaucrats still run a lot of SKorean Politics.
Stalin continues deporting Japanese from Sakhalin. Many of these end up in Taiwan.
1952
Japanese -Volunteers- arrive in Taiwan to help with the newly declared Independence Movement.
Japan begins slow expansion of the Japanese Self Defense Force.
Dewey wins re-election continues plans for disengagement. Marshall Plan Ends.
1954
European Coal and Steel Community collapses, derailing the plans for a integrated Europe.
1955
With a Puppetized SKorea & Taiwan, Japan begins climb to the #1 Ecomony in the World.
1946
Philippine - Independence. the new Government does not pass the old American Anti Japanese Investment laws.
Manchuria- Chaing Kia does not use the remains of the Japanese Army to enforce KMT control, so the Bulk of the KMT does not deflect to the Commies. The Civil war continues.
SKorea - The US Continues to use the Remains of the Japanese Bureaucracy instead of training US troops to take over.
1947
Rebuilding Japanese firms start investing in the Philippines.
1948
US continues rapid return to Isolation. US Military is back to pre Pearl levels.
Dewey Wins, on a platform of Disengagement.
With the Chinese Civil War still in full force, there is no Move by the KMT to prepare a retreat to Taiwan. No -Taiwan Massacre- of the Japanese Middle Class on the Island.
NATO Treaty fails to pass Congress.
1950
Dewey signs Treaty with Japan ending WW2. Continues to withdraw troops from Europe and Asia.
With the CCW still ongoing, Stalin keeps NKorea in Check. No Korean War, Japanese Bureaucrats still run a lot of SKorean Politics.
Stalin continues deporting Japanese from Sakhalin. Many of these end up in Taiwan.
1952
Japanese -Volunteers- arrive in Taiwan to help with the newly declared Independence Movement.
Japan begins slow expansion of the Japanese Self Defense Force.
Dewey wins re-election continues plans for disengagement. Marshall Plan Ends.
1954
European Coal and Steel Community collapses, derailing the plans for a integrated Europe.
1955
With a Puppetized SKorea & Taiwan, Japan begins climb to the #1 Ecomony in the World.
I cannot give you Japan as the world's Nr 1 economic power (without reducing other countries ASB style), but I can give you Japan as the worlds #1 industrial power, even with a 1946 POD. Note that the earlier independence and scientific planning only servers to bring this around earlier, not make it possible in itself.
The Scientific Planning ideas of Edwards Dewing reach the Japanese industry much earlier, and Deming gains the ear of Japans bureaucracy, industry and the LDP in 1950, when Japan gets independence two years ahead of OTL due to the Korean War. The Japanese quickly develop a 'Toyota Way', and by the mid 1950's are maybe 5 years ahead of OTL. However, the newly established MITI (Ministry of Internal Trade and Industry, although it was more of a bureaucracy), was run by even less politically inclined, pragmatic people than OTL. These were planning very far ahead, and they also actively sought new techniques of scientific management to apply to the Japanese economy.
In the late fifties, they come into contact with the Technocracy movement of the USA. They spent several years investigating the movement's ideas and scientific contributions, and found that if they were correct, the Japanese economy would stall due to overproduction and overinvestment, possibly in less than 50 years. Although the causes would be different than what caused the 1929 depression in the states (due to Japan being an export country), the same solutions would suffice.
Thus, they, based on Tech Inc's plan, developed a detailed plan for the transition to a post-scarcity economy once the technical preconditions were in place. They also made sure to safeguard this transition against political intervention, by preparing a massive education campaign in secrecy.
In the 1970's, Japanese products were the rage all over the west (probably 5-10 years ahead of OTL now), and Japan's industry was larger than ever before. Due to this the 1979 oil crisis occurred in 1975, because of increased demand. This had also been, while not predicted, at least warned against by a certain Hubbert, who the MITI has also investigated (since he was a Technocrat). Thus, an action plan was already ready, and Japanese suffered less due to it. This also proved to Japan's politicians that the scientific planning of MITI was very accurate.
About this time politicians became a bit scared of MITI, as they acquired more and more influence, and sought to limit it. However, MITI has built propaganda channels of their own, and declared the diet's move to limit scientific planning a stab at Japans heart for selfish reasons. They also implied that politics might not actually be the best way to run a country.
Then, in the mid 80's, the Japanese economy went belly-up, only this time it was anticipated, and MITI had started their educational campaign 6 months earlier. Their set date for the collapse was only wrong by 7 months.
The MITI plan, now distributed to every home and fed on TV regularly, called for a total conscription of labor for the industry (that was keeping Japan alive), fixed salaries and prices, and nationalization of all industry. The various CEO's and economist, and especially the politicians, cried communism, but the police weren't listening to them anymore, and the Japanese people, being very good at following official directives (just watch those earthquake drills), did as MITI suggested. During the next few years the MITI gradually took control over more government functions, and the fixed salaries were evened out as trains and apartment rent were made free. The most work was done in the industry however, as different corporations industrial sectors were integrated, and a uniform resource accounting system was introduced. Industrial production was normalized at the levels of consumption, and exports were gradually reduced to the levels needed for Japan to maintain an import of materials.
On April the first, 1989, the new economic system having been designed by MITI was introduced. It was a form of energy accounting, based on the original idea by Technocracy Inc. Short story: The total production of the nation is measured in energy, this is then divided evenly across all adults, and given as an energy certificate, allowing that person to requisition his/her share of the production. In 1989, this was only slightly over the pre-crisis average salary, but the industry was rapidly improved and by 1994, the living standard was equal to about $100,000 (2009USD)/Year and person.
At the same time, due to Japans exclusive scientific administration (with the exception of subjective issues, now solved by direct democracy), Japanese industry was without doubt the most efficient on the planet, and perhaps with the exception of military hardware, also the most advanced. By 1994 the Japanese industrial capacity (although not output, resource conservation was the tune of the day) was now approaching 50% of the US output. The Japanese Technate was a fact.
The rest of the world had initially not reacted tremendously, since the MITI's actions was seen bye some as a form of "Japanese New Deal", and those who believed the Japanese were really turning to communism thought it was a good idea, since many Americans were scared to be economically eclipsed. By 1989 however, there was no longer any doubt that Japan had gone red, and Washington promptly demanded that Japan reinstate her political system. When this did not happen most news in the west started talking of a coup in Tokyo. Misinformation was rampant and many sources claimed the involvement of the SDF.
The US forces in Japan had been confined to base ever since April. Now, the new Japanese government was kindly asking the US to consider withdrawing. The US forces kept paying their bills (in the Yen that Japan still kept for foreign trade) however, and so the Japanese kept delivering food and supplies.
In late 1989, after the system had been in place for 6 months, the new Japanese administration (it refused to call itself a government), announced its intentions to the rest of the world:
1. Japan is now a Technocracy, operating a Technate instead of a monetary system.
2. The Yen is now exclusively for foreign trade. The amount available will be fixed. All unprinted yen must be held in the Japanese foreign trade bank accounts.
3. Japan will, in exchange for raw materials, provide the best assistance and technology she can to foreign countries.
4. Tourism will be restricted temporarily, but eventually the gates will open again. Immigration is allowed on a case-by-case basis.
5. Japan will continue to fund their part of the UN, and provide humanitarian aid.
So, now we have a Japan that could potentially pass the US in industrial capacity in the early 2010's or so, should they want to. US industrial capacity might decrease however, as new and more efficient Japanese products might compete successfully against US industry, turning the US more and more into a financial empire, with massive out-sourcing.
The reactions of other nations are unlikely to be pretty though. I'd imagine that third-world countries might want to trade with the now more generous deals offered, but would the US try to cut off ties? After all, they have experience with Technocracy and now what it will do to the political system (and not even politicians like losing their jobs). The Soviet Union, for as long as it is around, might trade or not. On one hand, they are supposed to be communists, on the other hand, the Soviet political establishment is just as afraid of losing control to engineers and scientists as the American one.
Thought, anyone?
The Scientific Planning ideas of Edwards Dewing reach the Japanese industry much earlier, and Deming gains the ear of Japans bureaucracy, industry and the LDP in 1950, when Japan gets independence two years ahead of OTL due to the Korean War. The Japanese quickly develop a 'Toyota Way', and by the mid 1950's are maybe 5 years ahead of OTL. However, the newly established MITI (Ministry of Internal Trade and Industry, although it was more of a bureaucracy), was run by even less politically inclined, pragmatic people than OTL. These were planning very far ahead, and they also actively sought new techniques of scientific management to apply to the Japanese economy.
In the late fifties, they come into contact with the Technocracy movement of the USA. They spent several years investigating the movement's ideas and scientific contributions, and found that if they were correct, the Japanese economy would stall due to overproduction and overinvestment, possibly in less than 50 years. Although the causes would be different than what caused the 1929 depression in the states (due to Japan being an export country), the same solutions would suffice.
Thus, they, based on Tech Inc's plan, developed a detailed plan for the transition to a post-scarcity economy once the technical preconditions were in place. They also made sure to safeguard this transition against political intervention, by preparing a massive education campaign in secrecy.
In the 1970's, Japanese products were the rage all over the west (probably 5-10 years ahead of OTL now), and Japan's industry was larger than ever before. Due to this the 1979 oil crisis occurred in 1975, because of increased demand. This had also been, while not predicted, at least warned against by a certain Hubbert, who the MITI has also investigated (since he was a Technocrat). Thus, an action plan was already ready, and Japanese suffered less due to it. This also proved to Japan's politicians that the scientific planning of MITI was very accurate.
About this time politicians became a bit scared of MITI, as they acquired more and more influence, and sought to limit it. However, MITI has built propaganda channels of their own, and declared the diet's move to limit scientific planning a stab at Japans heart for selfish reasons. They also implied that politics might not actually be the best way to run a country.
Then, in the mid 80's, the Japanese economy went belly-up, only this time it was anticipated, and MITI had started their educational campaign 6 months earlier. Their set date for the collapse was only wrong by 7 months.
The MITI plan, now distributed to every home and fed on TV regularly, called for a total conscription of labor for the industry (that was keeping Japan alive), fixed salaries and prices, and nationalization of all industry. The various CEO's and economist, and especially the politicians, cried communism, but the police weren't listening to them anymore, and the Japanese people, being very good at following official directives (just watch those earthquake drills), did as MITI suggested. During the next few years the MITI gradually took control over more government functions, and the fixed salaries were evened out as trains and apartment rent were made free. The most work was done in the industry however, as different corporations industrial sectors were integrated, and a uniform resource accounting system was introduced. Industrial production was normalized at the levels of consumption, and exports were gradually reduced to the levels needed for Japan to maintain an import of materials.
On April the first, 1989, the new economic system having been designed by MITI was introduced. It was a form of energy accounting, based on the original idea by Technocracy Inc. Short story: The total production of the nation is measured in energy, this is then divided evenly across all adults, and given as an energy certificate, allowing that person to requisition his/her share of the production. In 1989, this was only slightly over the pre-crisis average salary, but the industry was rapidly improved and by 1994, the living standard was equal to about $100,000 (2009USD)/Year and person.
At the same time, due to Japans exclusive scientific administration (with the exception of subjective issues, now solved by direct democracy), Japanese industry was without doubt the most efficient on the planet, and perhaps with the exception of military hardware, also the most advanced. By 1994 the Japanese industrial capacity (although not output, resource conservation was the tune of the day) was now approaching 50% of the US output. The Japanese Technate was a fact.
The rest of the world had initially not reacted tremendously, since the MITI's actions was seen bye some as a form of "Japanese New Deal", and those who believed the Japanese were really turning to communism thought it was a good idea, since many Americans were scared to be economically eclipsed. By 1989 however, there was no longer any doubt that Japan had gone red, and Washington promptly demanded that Japan reinstate her political system. When this did not happen most news in the west started talking of a coup in Tokyo. Misinformation was rampant and many sources claimed the involvement of the SDF.
The US forces in Japan had been confined to base ever since April. Now, the new Japanese government was kindly asking the US to consider withdrawing. The US forces kept paying their bills (in the Yen that Japan still kept for foreign trade) however, and so the Japanese kept delivering food and supplies.
In late 1989, after the system had been in place for 6 months, the new Japanese administration (it refused to call itself a government), announced its intentions to the rest of the world:
1. Japan is now a Technocracy, operating a Technate instead of a monetary system.
2. The Yen is now exclusively for foreign trade. The amount available will be fixed. All unprinted yen must be held in the Japanese foreign trade bank accounts.
3. Japan will, in exchange for raw materials, provide the best assistance and technology she can to foreign countries.
4. Tourism will be restricted temporarily, but eventually the gates will open again. Immigration is allowed on a case-by-case basis.
5. Japan will continue to fund their part of the UN, and provide humanitarian aid.
So, now we have a Japan that could potentially pass the US in industrial capacity in the early 2010's or so, should they want to. US industrial capacity might decrease however, as new and more efficient Japanese products might compete successfully against US industry, turning the US more and more into a financial empire, with massive out-sourcing.
The reactions of other nations are unlikely to be pretty though. I'd imagine that third-world countries might want to trade with the now more generous deals offered, but would the US try to cut off ties? After all, they have experience with Technocracy and now what it will do to the political system (and not even politicians like losing their jobs). The Soviet Union, for as long as it is around, might trade or not. On one hand, they are supposed to be communists, on the other hand, the Soviet political establishment is just as afraid of losing control to engineers and scientists as the American one.
Thought, anyone?
A technocracy is not feasible. The replacement of money with some kind of energy-ration system won't work.
And the problem with fixed salaries is that there's no incentive to produce more.
Seems fairly ASB. But interesting.
Edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn
Suddenly remembered this and thought you should take note of that. Cybernetics would solve the classic economic calculation problem (of wages, prices, and so on), but there might be draconian measures in place to illegalize the submission of fraudulent statistics.
And the problem with fixed salaries is that there's no incentive to produce more.
Seems fairly ASB. But interesting.
Edit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn
Suddenly remembered this and thought you should take note of that. Cybernetics would solve the classic economic calculation problem (of wages, prices, and so on), but there might be draconian measures in place to illegalize the submission of fraudulent statistics.
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The fixed salaries was a temporary measure, and replaced with energy accounting in 1989. Research indicates that technocracy IS a feasible option. As resource accounting is more accurate than money accounting, I don't see the problem.
The incentive to produce more is the increasing demand of the population. Then, when the people are satisfied, industrial production will not increase anymore, since that would be wasteful.
In 1994 in this TL, all Japanese are enjoying a considerably high living standard, and so they will probably want to keep these luxuries. This is the incentive for them to work.
It is true however that this was put together hastily, and could probably use some ironing out. Especially, how the rest of the world will react. Japanese industry is dependent on imports after all.
EDIT: Cybersyn is essentially Technocracy lite. A more extensive system like this would be employed. Since there is no private actors, and no market to profit on anyway, why would anyone submit fraudulent data? Anyway, it would be noticed at some point, and the inefficiency dealt with.
Even so. Once fixed salaries are utilized, efficiencies in production will slowly stop increasing. And what research?
... how Marxist utopian of you. Too many assumptions based on Marxist economics. People require incentives.
Presumably managers who improve efficiency would recieve pay raises (managers in the Soviet Union depended on quota fulfillment for most of their pay).
... how Marxist utopian of you. Too many assumptions based on Marxist economics. People require incentives.
Presumably managers who improve efficiency would recieve pay raises (managers in the Soviet Union depended on quota fulfillment for most of their pay).
Simple. Make the US and USSR nuke each other.
Thus losing one massive customer. Oh, and radiation. Oh, and economic worldwide collapse.
Thus losing one massive customer. Oh, and radiation. Oh, and economic worldwide collapse.
Exactly.
But seriousely, Japan is about as good economically as it can be. Only a WWII Japanese victory scenario, or Japan surviving a global economic crisis while everyone else gets stomped by it would make it better.
Yep, fixed salaries are a bad idea. Read my post again, they were only a temporary stop gap measure so that people could buy food. I am quite sure that during those three years (the Japanese New deal, as it was called), Japanese industry did not advance significantly.
After the 1989 reorganization, Japan no longer has an economy. There is still an incentive to work, as any inefficiency leads to an equally shared lower living standard. Now, people are here working 4-6 hours a day, four days a week, and have a 4 month consecutive vacation. I doubt anyone would find that amount of work tedious, not in Japan. Of course, as the new become the old, perhaps the Japanese work ethic will be affected (say three generations), but by this time automation will keep it efficient enough.
Managers who improve efficiency will not receive pay raises, as no one receives any salary at all, but they would be able to advance (in case they are motivated by improving themselves, ie they like their job), or they would perhaps be farther ahead in the priority lists for new technology and BETA products. There are plenty of incentives to use. And, if a manager did not improve efficiency according to expectations, he could be replaced.
The Soviet Union is a bad example, since it still used money, and was thus not marxist-communist (which is a pretty lose definition, but lack of money is one of them).
This is no utopia, it is just a socioeconomic design that was scientifically designed, by the common katascopic process (or 'waterfall method').
The research was conducted by the American Technical Alliance in the 1920's, and subsequently resulted in Technocracy Inc. It is available here: www.technocracy.org You may have to dig around though, and most of it is quite outdated.
I do not consider it ASB that it would work (I am quite sure it would), but I can accept that it ever being introduced by a governmental entity like the MITI is ASB through the roof.