Challenge: How can the Soviets win the Winter War
- Thread starter The Red
- Start date
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Hmm, difficult. I have always thought that without Stalinist purges the USSR would have officers who could handle Finnish motti warfare. But with a POD this late, it's going to be hard.
Nietzsche
Banned
This has less to do with Finnish Resistance and more to do with the terrain of Finland. It's basically one giant marsh in the summer, and a giant frozen marsh in the winter.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
And of course the ability of the Finnish defenders to fully use the terrain in their favour.
Wolfpaw
Banned
What was the status of the Soviet and Finnish Baltic navies at the time? (Did the USSR even really have a Baltic navy yet?)
Anyways, my point is that maybe the Soviets can try to cross the Gulf of Finland and strike at Helsinki? Though honestly I doubt that a post-Purge, pre-WWII Soviet Union could pull that off.
Anyways, my point is that maybe the Soviets can try to cross the Gulf of Finland and strike at Helsinki? Though honestly I doubt that a post-Purge, pre-WWII Soviet Union could pull that off.
BlairWitch749
Banned
Zhukov commanding the main ground forces... increased deployment of automatic weapons, using the airforce for tactical support instead of useless strategic strikes... deploy more heavy artillery pieces that can penetrate the concrete bunkers of the Mannerhiem line... increased numbers of engineer companies following behind the armored columns to clear roadblocks and widen highways
When the Red Army invaded Finland, their soldiers were weighed down with propaganda banners and leaflets, which they were supposed to distribute to the Finns, proclaiming that the Soviets were representatives of an egalitarian workers' paradise, coming to deliver Finland from an oppressive fascist oligarchy. Their commissars had assured them they would be welcomed as liberators. But if their propaganda really had been true, and the USSR really had been coming to set them free, and the Finns really had been downtrodden, Stalin could have overrun Finland.
Use of more forces in Karelian isthmus, proper use of Baltic Fleet to land on Åland isles and to cut Finnish sea lines of communications and form a flank threat are the basic possibilities. As for any kind of actual Soviet blitzkrieg, that's outside the realm of possibilities. Defeat and occupation of Finland within, say, two months is possible.
Well, with troops used to winter-climate (rather then soldiers from the Southern parts of the Union used out of paranoia), and a well thought out battle-plan backed up by logistics (instead of just sending the divisions forward and assuming the Finns would collapse...), would have gone a long way.
And the Soviets did have strong internal support. Even after five years of war against the Soviet Union, in 1945 25 % of the Finnish people voted for the Communists when they were for the first time allowed to stand for election.
In 1918, White Finland, had unleashed a genocidal terror against Red Finland, liquidating 30 000 militant workers and crofters. The bitterness was still very well alive in 1940, but the Soviet Union failed entirely to capitalize on it.
And the Soviets did have strong internal support. Even after five years of war against the Soviet Union, in 1945 25 % of the Finnish people voted for the Communists when they were for the first time allowed to stand for election.
In 1918, White Finland, had unleashed a genocidal terror against Red Finland, liquidating 30 000 militant workers and crofters. The bitterness was still very well alive in 1940, but the Soviet Union failed entirely to capitalize on it.
I Blame Communism
Banned
What essentially happens is that owing to a splendid Finnish effort confronted by a long list of Soviet mistakes, the Finns were able to parry the Soviets north and east of Ladoga and hold them off to the south and west, but by March Mannerheim's line was cracking and the Finns knew it. The Soviets settled for a negotiated peace due to exhaustion and the threat of Anglo-French meddling in Scandinavia. The key is thus to have the Soviets break through on the isthmus much earlier, leaving them with sufficient gusto to press the attack on to Helsinki.
Various people have already made tactical suggestions: better leadership; more sensible employment of aircraft; more engineers; more heavy artillery; in general a greater allocation of resources. I'd add that the Soviets should have stuck to diversionary and holding efforts north and east of Ladoga. To get these, we'd want some PoD back in Soviet politics and doctrine.
I wouldn't call the aftermath of the Finnish Civil War "genocide". It was a very nasty time, but genocide is a specific thing, a huge accusation which must be used sparingly. The Whites, though they undertook plenty of fairly indiscriminate massacre of suspected Reds, were not trying to murder everyone of a particular ethnic group, social class, of anything else.
Various people have already made tactical suggestions: better leadership; more sensible employment of aircraft; more engineers; more heavy artillery; in general a greater allocation of resources. I'd add that the Soviets should have stuck to diversionary and holding efforts north and east of Ladoga. To get these, we'd want some PoD back in Soviet politics and doctrine.
I wouldn't call the aftermath of the Finnish Civil War "genocide". It was a very nasty time, but genocide is a specific thing, a huge accusation which must be used sparingly. The Whites, though they undertook plenty of fairly indiscriminate massacre of suspected Reds, were not trying to murder everyone of a particular ethnic group, social class, of anything else.
Stalker
Banned
Actually, in March 1940 all the Finland lay unprotected at the feet of the soldiers of RKKA who had broke through the Mannerheim Line but Stalin changed his mind and stopped the further invasion. Why did he do that having appointer Kuusinen the head of Karelo-Finnish SSR? Who knows. I know for sure that that was not because of Soviet expulsion from the League of Nations or desperate pleas from the Finnish side. There were other reasons.
The ideologues of the Swedish upper-class in Finland were producing all kinds of propaganda about how the Finnish people needed to be pruned of its antisocial elements. The murder of Red women, who were the demography of prisoners that suffered the most, was justified with the need to prevent them from giving birth to new criminals.
And if not all militant workers were killed, it was mainly because the workers of Germany overthrow the Kaiser, making the generals of White Finland suddenly recognizing the possibility of retribution. Until that, they were planning a parliamentarian monarchy with very restricted voting rights, while the tens of thousands of prsioners remained in the camps dying by disease and starvation.
But I agree, maybe genocide is a harsh word, but then precedent of Srebnica says otherwise. And there was a ethnic element, while the White Finns, including old tsarist collaborators like Mannerheim, were suddenly fervent Finnish nationalists (after having, as late as the previous summer voted against the Power Act and siding with the Russian intervention to stop independence) the fact is that their leadership and a lot of the rank and file (ostrobothnians, primarily) were in fact Swedes, and that probable a main reason for the brutality unleashed on the rebellious Finns.
And if not all militant workers were killed, it was mainly because the workers of Germany overthrow the Kaiser, making the generals of White Finland suddenly recognizing the possibility of retribution. Until that, they were planning a parliamentarian monarchy with very restricted voting rights, while the tens of thousands of prsioners remained in the camps dying by disease and starvation.
But I agree, maybe genocide is a harsh word, but then precedent of Srebnica says otherwise. And there was a ethnic element, while the White Finns, including old tsarist collaborators like Mannerheim, were suddenly fervent Finnish nationalists (after having, as late as the previous summer voted against the Power Act and siding with the Russian intervention to stop independence) the fact is that their leadership and a lot of the rank and file (ostrobothnians, primarily) were in fact Swedes, and that probable a main reason for the brutality unleashed on the rebellious Finns.
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And so enormous support for Communists was that the Finnish Communist Party (SKP) did not run under it's own banner but under a cover organization Finnish People's Democratic League (SKDL) with a number of former Social Democrats etc. fellow travellers. The amount of votes was a sign of leftist sympathies, not sympathies for Soviet Union. Sympathies for Soviet Union can be counted from the amount of those who willingly surrendered etc.
The reason SKP wasn't allowed to run for parliament in 1918-1939 can be seen even from the party program which says their goal is destruction of capitalist state with goal of dictatorship of the proletariat, not democracy. The party which actually was behind 1918 coup attempt, Social Democratic Party, was allowed and was in the Cabinet several times.
Well, the propaganda of giving Finns democracy, 8 hour working day and redistribution of land (all gained in 1920's) wasn't certainly succesfull...
As for the number of Red Finns killed, you're quite much off, the latest statistics indicate the following number:
http://vesta.narc.fi/cgi-bin/db2www/sotasurmaetusivu/stat2
(Reds) executed, shot or murdered: 7 207
Died in prison camps: 11 785
Died after being released; 597
Missing: 1 818
For total of some 21 407
Number of 30 000 is closer to all deaths in Finnish Civil War (34 277).
As for the ethnic distribution, how can one explain that large number of Southern Finnish Reds were Swedish-speaking, as the language was a large majority especially in Finnish urban centers?
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After the Winter War ended the overwhelming majority of the population in those territories captured by the Soviets chose to give up their homes and farms or other property and move to that portion of Finland which remained free, which shows quite clearly the degree of support the Soviet Union had in Finland. Then again, the determined resistance by a much smaller and vastly less well-equipped army also confirms where the hearts of the Finnish people were.
wolfpaw122, Finland had several torpedo boats and submarines and a pair of coastal battleships of questionable quality*, the USSR had a much more substantial fleet in the Baltic, including several capital ships, which was superior to the Kriegsmarine until the two battle cruisers entered service.
Jukra, one problem is that Sweden had a claim on the Alands only given up following a negotiated settlement under the League of Nations so a Soviet attack on those islands could be risky.
*Post-WWII Finland was required to surrender the coastal battleships to the Soviets who, after spending some time looking them over, offered them back!
wolfpaw122, Finland had several torpedo boats and submarines and a pair of coastal battleships of questionable quality*, the USSR had a much more substantial fleet in the Baltic, including several capital ships, which was superior to the Kriegsmarine until the two battle cruisers entered service.
Jukra, one problem is that Sweden had a claim on the Alands only given up following a negotiated settlement under the League of Nations so a Soviet attack on those islands could be risky.
*Post-WWII Finland was required to surrender the coastal battleships to the Soviets who, after spending some time looking them over, offered them back!
By start of the Winter War Finland had grand total seven 1920's vintage MTB's, five submarines, two coastal battleships and four auxiliary gun boats as the main combat units. Due to stroke of brilliance, Finnish Navy had not had exercises in winter conditions and the operations were severely curtailed due to environment conditions.
However, the Finnish Navy had considerable coastal defense network on Finnish southern coast with considerable number of 6"-12" coastal artillery batteries and a fair number of mines. Coastal artillery was of high quality. This coastal defense network did not, however, extend to Åland isles which were demilitarized.
Finnish Navy was, however, very much unprepared to guard the sea lines of communications and more aggressive Soviet operations, even if Åland isles were not captured, would have been enough to cut Finnish sea lines of communications and thus practically Finland from the world. Soviets had more than enough surface, submarine and naval air units to achieve this even if very low level of Soviet competence is taken into account.
The remaining CB, Väinämöinen, was actually sold to USSR in order to pay for financial assets owned by Germany or Germans which were required to be surrendered to Soviet Union. By this deal Soviet Union owned some of the Finnish companies during Cold War era, and actually own one of the gasoline distribution firms, Teboil, even today.
In hindsight the concept and actualization was a failure and many criticized the choice for type of the ship chosen to be built even when the ships were being constructed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_coastal_defence_ship_V%C3%A4in%C3%A4m%C3%B6inen
Now, naturally I must write a Finnish naval/maritime wankery some day...