Central Powers Victory: 1960s and onward

[Anchises]

Just a little thread for some speculation.

We rarely talk about CP victory worlds*, long after history went off the rails. Sure, we can extrapolate what happens in the 20s, 30s and maybe even the 40s but everything beyond that feels really alien to us.

OTLs post-war period shaped the world for decades and was crucial for our modern world. It is really hard to imagine a CP-victory world beyond 1945.

This thread is an attempt to talk about these distant TLs. How does a CP-victory world looks like in 1960 and beyond?

Everyone is free to chip in their ideas, a whole well thought-out world is not necessary. Single elements can be just as interesting.

* we are talking about victory, not some quasi defeat in 1919
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I think the "classical" idea of an ethnically cleansed Algeria is not too unlikely. Some weird French version of the "Lebensraum" theory could be a result of a bitter defeat.

Basically the idea would be to create an extension of France in Africa, to gain the numbers and the strategic depth for a round two with the German Empire.

For a number of reasons I don't think this round two would happen, at least not with France involved.

So in the 60s France is faced with a host of problems. The extrem nationalism and revanchism that fueled the crimes in Algeria has cooled down. The French population on the continent and the Pied Noirs now have wildly diverging values and goals. Big cracks are starting to show.

Most continentals are interested in creating a comprehensive social security net, strenghtening the economy and continued Detente with the German Empire. The Pied Noirs on the other hand, are far to the right of the common continental. They are mostly worried about France's decreasing military strength, a percieved loss of international prestige and the so-called "Arab danger".

Lavish subsidies, designed to bolster birth rates in Algeria, are another topic causing bitter resentment between the "two Frances".

 

[stevej713]

Personally, I always believed that Germany would attempt to create a closed system in Europe by creating unequal treaties with the rest of the continent. Political upheaval would lead to German interventions everywhere - in Russia, France, the Balkans, Italy, etc. This would stretch the military thin while dissenting voices at home would attempt to curb the military's influence in the government. Ultimately, I think the whole system would come crashing down in the 30s, if not before.

Europe would be pretty screwed up after 20 years of being pillaged by the Germans. Communism would undoubtedly be very popular throughout the Continent. The United States would attempt something like the Marshall Plan early in order to stabilize Europe. It's also possible that Britain would have spent the period fortifying itself against a possible German invasion, causing the UK to be more imperialistic and less sympathetic to the independence movements in the Empire. This would make the dissolution of the British Empire more messy, leading perhaps to a civil war in India.

German policy in Russia would be to draw out the civil war as long as possible. I personally think White victory could have been possible, but Russia would have been a mess afterwards - distrust of the urban population would have caused industrialization to stagnate, while peripheral warlords would achieve autonomy with clandestine German assistance. Ultimately, Russia is able to be consolidated under a Stalin-type figure, but modernization programs go nowhere as the military is focused on quelling dissent in Russia and in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Meanwhile, Japan would seek concessions in the Dutch East Indies since Germany would be attempting to draw the Netherlands into its orbit. Japan ends up isolated diplomatically and ultimately at war with just about everyone at some point in the 30s. Because this isn't World War II, I doubt the United States would seek unconditional victory but makes peace once Japan is decisively defeated at sea. Japan falls behind economically for several decades before liberalization leads the country to accept American investment.

The Communists in China would be bolstered by Reds from Russia. I think China could go either way, but the country probably still closes itself off from the West once the economic gap between the coast and the interior becomes too wide and leads to turmoil.

Ultimately, the 20th century would still become an ideological war between Capitalism and Communism, but without the Soviet Union, this struggle would be a lot less bipolar. Authoritarian dictatorships would be more common, as would different ideological branches of Communism. Liberalization still occurs towards the end of the century, but the world is a much different place than we know it now.

Just a few thoughts on my part, not thought out too well.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

I doubt France would be looking for "living space", given population trends and a generally larger agricultural sector and greater potential for industrial expansion in the medium term. To be honest, I actually expect to see a spirit of pacifism generally dominant in France immediately post-war that will only be vindicated as time goes on, with France exploiting it's position as a counterweight with a lighter hand to German attempts at economic domination. If they can successfully employ "soft" power to gain freindships among left-leaning reforms that are acendent in Italian and Spainish politics, they could very easily form a "Latin Bloc" while Berlin is struggling to consolidate and integrate her new sphere of influence in the East: likely even pulling in Belgium if the nation isent bound by treaty to Germany.

The Balkans will certainly be... interesting. The Albanian and Macedonian questions are still going to be highly salient, especially as Serbia and non-Habsburg Yugoslavianism being knocked out of commission. Regional rivalries are liable to be a mess and constantly shifting, but I expect it to be "burned over" by the 40's. Likely by the 60's the region is poor, suffering from a lost generation, umdercapitalization, and a "brain drain" into the Teutonic states.

I'm more curious about how the Ottomans pan out though. With Russia in chaos and Britain beaten back, likely the anti-minority campaigns can be completed in relative peace and the Arabs rendered quesent. They could go in alot of directions

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

The trouble with threads like this is the question will always be but what sort of victory? Because plausibly I don't see a way for the Central Powers to achieve a total victory (and it's always been hotly debated whether they can achieve the surrender of Britain at all - many AHers tend to go with the 'status quo ante bellum with Britain' option because of it). Additionally, the 20's through to 50's is a long time. Thirty years. Skipping ahead to the 60's makes speculation an exercise in futility. Without really guessing as to what happened during all those in between years, building a world thirty or forty years later isn't really feasible.

I mean, France could go communist, for example, if the Germans reach Paris and the French outright surrender. What form does French communism take? Will there be a civil war there? Will the colonies take the opportunity to revolt (especially the Algerians)? What about Italy? Leading up to the war, and during it, they were still pacifying Libya. If they are on the losing side, can they still hold onto Libya? And the Ottomans? The later the victory, the less likely it is that the Ottoman Empire survives the war. What shape do they take?

Keep in mind, OTL WWII had an enormous impact on the geopolitical shape of the world in the 50's-60's, so whatever happens in this ATL interwar period is likely going to have a similar impact on the ATL world in the 50's-60's and beyond.

 

[Lalli]

Well, let's say that this is late victory scenario. USA still declares war to Germany but its troops arrive to Eurpe too late or at least France is defeated before Americans can do anything.

Europe in general:
After the war Germany is undisputed ruler of Europe. It has great influnce and clearly most powerful nation of the continent. Due German supremacy WW2 is totally impossible but there is several local conflicts speciality in Balkans, East Europe and Iberia.

Germany
Germany is one of most powerful nations of the world. Economy is great and it has still powerful army. After the Great War Germany suffered some internal problems and there was some communist activities. But situation begun stabilise during 1920's and nowadays Germany is British style constitutional monarchy. Germany lost all of its colonies outside of Africa but it has quiet massive colonial holdings in Africa. But there is rising of African nationalism in its colonies. Germany becomes first nuclear weapon power in 1950's. In 1960's Germany is quiet liberal and there is not big social troubles.

Austria:
Altough Austria-Hungary was among of victors and gained some areas from Italy, Serbia and Montenegro, the country becomes very unstable and experience civil war in early 1920's. Hungary secedes from the empire but separatists in Croatia and Bohemia are defeated. The nation reforms itself federal nation called as Austria-Slavia where Bohemia and Croatia have great autonomy. Bosnia is part of Croatia and it will be heavely Catholised and Croatised. But there is still much of separatism in Bohemia and Croatia. In Bosinia Serb minority is loudly demanding its rights. Austria-Slavia is economically in good condition but militaritally not very powerful. A-S is too bit conservative nation and pretty Catholic altough religious minorities are tolerated.

Other parts of former Austria-Hungary:
From A-H seceded two countries. Galicia and Hungary. Galicia became independent kingdom with its own Habsburg branch. Hungary became too indepenent state. It was long time quiet isolated nation altough Germany had some influence there. It remained long time very authotarian but begun to democratise in end of 1950's.

Bulgaria
Bulgaria became after the Great War most powerful nation of the Balkans. It has quiet powerful army and Bulgaria has been quiet nationalistic and sometimes even bit aggressivbe towards its neighbors. Germany has sometimes even pressure Bulgaria that it not provocate new conflicts. But mostly Bulgaria tries Bulgarisate its minorities but still in 1960's Serb minority is causing some problems.

Ottoman Empire:
1920's is not easy for the empire. There is several local rebels and it lost Hejaz. OE anyway manage solve its troubles sometimes with giving more autonomy to local communities and sometimes just crushing them. But in 1930's goes bit better due oil altough it will last long time before economy is really boosted. In 1960's Ottoman Empire is one of most powerful nations in Middle East but it has still several problems. OE is currently constitutional monarchy altough bit authotarian and quiet Turkish nationalist.

Rest of the Balkans:
Serbia is totally defeated and humiliated. It lost several regions to Bulgaria and some territories to Austria-Hungary. It has pay massive reparations and it is declared one of major guilt to assassination of Franz Ferdinand and the Great War. Serbia is severely weakened but Serbs are still nationalists and proud people. Montenegro and Albania are quiet poor and backward nations. Greece lost some territories to Bulgaria. It is not so badly humiliated as Serbia and later it has good relationships with Germany.

Middle East:
Middle East is more stable than in OTL thanks of many things. Ottoman Empire is quiet strong and another strong nation is Iran. Pahlavis takes power in early 1920's. New shah dynasty modernise the country and in 1960's Iran is modernised nation which has good relationships with many European nations but it is allowed do many of things. Economy is currently boosting. Iran is rival of Ottoman Empire. Third quiet notable nation is Kingdom of Rashid Arabia. Rashidirs manage unite most of Arabia in 1930's after several bloody wars. It is quiet authotarian monarchy (altough more liberal than OTL Saudi Arabia and not so religious). Its economy is boosting thanks of oil and the country is slowly modernisating. Rest of Middle East is still under British influence but even they are going free from the British Empire.

United Kingdom
Germany is not able defeat the empire and so war ends pretty much status quo ante bellum altough Germany lost its colonies outside of Africa. This cause much changes to British society and politics. And Brits have still fight in Ireland. India is too headache but it will be solved eventually and India gains independence in 1950's. In 1950's United Kingdom developes nuclear weapon some years German one. British empire is still pretty strong but there is much of demands over local autonomy or even independence. UK has quiet good relationships with Germany.

France
France is totally defeated. It losts some border regions and some colonies altough it has still quiet impressive colonial empire. In end of 1920's France becomes fascist or at least right-wing authotarian nation. It has quiet frozen relationships with Germany but it is unwillingful and unable begin new war. No resources and Frenchmen haven't will fight war when France had lost two notable wars against Prussia/Germany. France is quiet nationalist and it causes frustration in some coloneis. Algeria and Indochina see much of anti-French violence.

Russia:
Russian Empire collapses firstly and it experience disastrous civil war and many ethnic regions secede and becomes puppets of Germany. Russia is premanentally weakened and unable do anything with Germany. It industrialises but very slowly and is in 1960's still behind of other European nations.

United States:
After the Great War USA returns to isolationism and cares only issues of Western Hemisphere. In end of 1950's USA begins take bigger role in international issues. Civil Right movement is still quiet small due lack of WW2 or other notable conflict where USA could participate altough there has made some legistature for supporting of blacks.

 

[jerseyguy]

I doubt France would be looking for "living space", given population trends and a generally larger agricultural sector and greater potential for industrial expansion in the medium term. To be honest, I actually expect to see a spirit of pacifism generally dominant in France immediately post-war that will only be vindicated as time goes on, with France exploiting it's position as a counterweight with a lighter hand to German attempts at economic domination. If they can successfully employ "soft" power to gain freindships among left-leaning reforms that are acendent in Italian and Spainish politics, they could very easily form a "Latin Bloc" while Berlin is struggling to consolidate and integrate her new sphere of influence in the East: likely even pulling in Belgium if the nation isent bound by treaty to Germany.

The Balkans will certainly be... interesting. The Albanian and Macedonian questions are still going to be highly salient, especially as Serbia and non-Habsburg Yugoslavianism being knocked out of commission. Regional rivalries are liable to be a mess and constantly shifting, but I expect it to be "burned over" by the 40's. Likely by the 60's the region is poor, suffering from a lost generation, umdercapitalization, and a "brain drain" into the Teutonic states.

I'm more curious about how the Ottomans pan out though. With Russia in chaos and Britain beaten back, likely the anti-minority campaigns can be completed in relative peace and the Arabs rendered quesent. They could go in alot of directions

The communist/revolutionary "red" france trope has become an ah cliche as an alt-russian revolution, but the pacifist option that looks like OTL is much more likely. France would have its hands full with an Algerian "troubles" as a kind of alt Northern ireland, and nationalists in Indochina could become a problem as well.
The Japanese victory over white colonial troops was the main reason why colonial rule was de-legitimized starting in Asia. The "beginning of the end" for the french empire might have happened later, or in a different place than Indochina without the same twentieth century.