Can Spain win its colonial wars if America doesn't intervene?

[SealTheRealDeal]

As the title asks, in the absence of the Spanish-American War, can Spain win its conflicts in Cuba and the Philippines?

In the Philippines the Pact of Biak-na-bato was in place, but things weren't quiet just yet and the pact seems to set up a very temporary peace. IIRC the Cuban War was still in full swing when the Maine exploded.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Not indefinitely but they could probably hold them a for few decades into the 20th century. In the short term, they had a better chance in the Philippines than Cuba, where the situation was more critical, though I think Cuba was a higher priority. In the longer term, the Philippines would be very hard to hold, especially if they're still in Cuba.

 

[kasumigenx]

As the title asks, in the absence of the Spanish-American War, can Spain win its conflicts in Cuba and the Philippines?

In the Philippines the Pact of Biak-na-bato was in place, but things weren't quiet just yet and the pact seems to set up a very temporary peace. IIRC the Cuban War was still in full swing when the Maine exploded.

Emilio Aguinaldo is a traitor, in this situation since he sold the revolt, Spain would have been better off ceding off Cuba and Luzon to the Americans instead of a war, actually the spanish keeping Luzon in the 19th century was just due to a stroke of luck due to a famine which was borderline ASB.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Emilio Aguinaldo is a traitor, in this situation since he sold the revolt, Spain would have been better off ceding off Cuba and Luzon to the Americans instead of a war, actually the spanish keeping Luzon in the 19th century was just due to a stroke of luck due to a famine which was borderline ASB.

Are Cuba and Luzon really such negative investments that Spain is better off without them?

 

[Namayan]

Changed vote to both.

To Spain its just a matter of willingness to part with manpower and resources.

Cuba will go down first with OTL Spanish resources and less Cuban resources(no USA). The local loyalist force was roughly equal to the Rebel force. And you are not counting forces that came from Iberian Peninsula.

Spain has got to ramp up manpower/resources vs OTL in the Philippines though in order to win. Like 5-10 times more than OTL. They Spanish were already severely outnumbered in 1897(even after Spanish reinforcement came from Spain) before the local Filipinos ramped at the guns, manpower and resources in 1898.

edit: changed vote

 

[kasumigenx]

Are Cuba and Luzon really such negative investments that Spain is better off without them?

Luzon is the worse investment not Cuba as Spain retaining it in the 18th/early 19th century is due to a famine that is Borderline ASB , they could have used the resources they used to retain it to get the spice islands.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

I think you are missing quite an important point: The Spanish mindframe.

Cuba and the Phillipines were the last remnants of the once might Spanish Empire. They were not to give them up so easily. If they were sure to go to war against the USA and were sure to beat them, I don't think they would had any doubt about, eventually, their chances to crush both rebellions. Perhaps, with General Blanco replacing Weyler, he could have pacified Cuba as he did in the 1880s. Furthermore, in the Philippines the Pact of Biak-na-bato could lead to a quite stable settlement for longer that we may think.

In any case, without a foreign intervention, Spain is not going to give away the islands in any case. Just consider what happened in Morocco 30 years later. Even after a defeat like Annual, they went back again. Of course, shorter lines of communication, you may say. Yes, indeed, but the mindframe of the Spanish government was determined to hold and prevail.

The question is... how much were they ready to waste there? And how long would the Spaniards stand having their sons dying there?

 

[kasumigenx]

I think you are missing quite an important point: The Spanish mindframe.

Cuba and the Phillipines were the last remnants of the once might Spanish Empire. They were not to give them up so easily. If they were sure to go to war against the USA and were sure to beat them, I don't think they would had any doubt about, eventually, their chances to crush both rebellions. Perhaps, with General Blanco replacing Weyler, he could have pacified Cuba as he did in the 1880s. Furthermore, in the Philippines the Pact of Biak-na-bato could lead to a quite stable settlement for longer that we may think.

In any case, without a foreign intervention, Spain is not going to give away the islands in any case. Just consider what happened in Morocco 30 years later. Even after a defeat like Annual, they went back again. Of course, shorter lines of communication, you may say. Yes, indeed, but the mindframe of the Spanish government was determined to hold and prevail.

The question is... how much were they ready to waste there? And how long would the Spaniards stand having their sons dying there?

Actually, Spain ceding Luzon to the US and retaining Visayas and parts of Mindanao is the much better alternative for the Philippines in Spain's case instead of the Spanish-American war because it has been a perennial headache to them and it is overdue for them to get rid of it and keeping them before was caused by a Borderline ASB event.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Actually, Spain ceding Luzon to the US and retaining Visayas and parts of Mindanao is the much better alternative for the Philippines in Spain's case instead of the Spanish-American war because it has been a perennial headache to them and it is overdue for them to get rid of it and keeping them before was caused by a Borderline ASB event.

Having a Spaniard of that age thinking about giving away an inch of Spanish soil is almost ASB.

 

[kasumigenx]

Having a Spaniard of that age thinking about giving away an inch of Spanish soil is almost ASB.

Yes, but giving away Luzon and Cuba instead of the Spanish-American war and treason/settlement of Aguinaldo would have been a better alternative for the Spanish...since the revolt in the Philippines is just concentrated in Luzon, that would have worked if Aguinaldo was getting rid off.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Yes, but giving away Luzon and Cuba instead of the Spanish-American war

That's rather off topic given that this thread assumes no American intervention in the first place.

 

[kasumigenx]

That's rather off topic given that this thread assumes no American intervention in the first place.

Yes, that is okay, I think if there is no American intervention that might mean that Luzon would have been given off to the Germans/British as they would have supported the revolt just like the Americans did IOTL.

 

[Namayan]

I think you are missing quite an important point: The Spanish mindframe.

Cuba and the Phillipines were the last remnants of the once might Spanish Empire. They were not to give them up so easily. If they were sure to go to war against the USA and were sure to beat them, I don't think they would had any doubt about, eventually, their chances to crush both rebellions. Perhaps, with General Blanco replacing Weyler, he could have pacified Cuba as he did in the 1880s. Furthermore, in the Philippines the Pact of Biak-na-bato could lead to a quite stable settlement for longer that we may think.

In any case, without a foreign intervention, Spain is not going to give away the islands in any case. Just consider what happened in Morocco 30 years later. Even after a defeat like Annual, they went back again. Of course, shorter lines of communication, you may say. Yes, indeed, but the mindframe of the Spanish government was determined to hold and prevail.

The question is... how much were they ready to waste there? And how long would the Spaniards stand having their sons dying there?

Spain had to proceed to promise of Pact of Biak na bato, promises of reforms and payment of cash in order for the pact to be long stable settlement.

On top of that, Even without Aguinaldo they were still dealing with rebel generals who did not surrender. Just so happened these are the same generals who last surrendered to US OTL.

Without the promise of reforms, the rebellion was going to continue with or without Aguinaldo and the generals in Hong Kong.

Assuming Spain did give Philippines autonomy, representation to Cortes. The rebellions will certainly die down and stop even if they didnt pay Aquinaldo the remaining cash promised.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Assuming Spain did give Philippines autonomy, representation to Cortes. The rebellions will certainly die down and stop even if they didnt pay Aquinaldo the remaining cash promised.

In fact, Spain gave what could have been the beginning of atrue autonomous government to Cuba and Puerto Rico in 1897, but soon the Maine exploded and everything came to naught. The thing is, this autonomous status hurted not only the Cuban rebels, but also the Hurst propaganda. If this was implemented with more time to fully develop and then applied to the Phillipines, you may have the rebellions going down quite fast.

PS: Now I think, I played with this idea in a TL.