British activity in South America in an averted-ARW scenario

[Socrates]

In a situation where the British seek a more conciliatory approach to the Stamp Act Congress and form an early dominion type situation with the American colonies, how would British imperialism develop in South America? This would be a world in which there was no Monroe Doctrine and I see no reason why the Brits wouldn't seek to intervene here just as much as they did in Africa, Asia and Oceania.

Argentina is the one that's most explored, but I'd like to consider other possibilities. If we assume the Portuguese court fleeing to Brazil is unlikely in most timelines, could we see OTL Brazil break up into various smaller states, with some becoming British protectorates? Then we have a declining Spanish empire, which could quite possibly have the mainland invaded at some point. How would the Brits look at northern South America? What interest would the Brits take in OTL Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela? What would the approach to Mexico and Cuba be?

 

[Socrates]

Bump.

 

[juanml82]

I was writing something and accidentally closed the tab.
The main inspirations for the Hispano-American revolutionary movements were the American independence ("if they did it, why not us?") and the French Revolution. Tupac Amaru rebellion (which isn't butterflied away) was another source of inspiration, at least in Spanish South America. On top, by 1810, France, Haiti and the USA were the only republics in the world (iirc). In an ATL were there is no ARW, if there is a Hispanic American revolutionary movements, their leaders might prefer to stick to the established and choose to develop some sort of constitutional monarchy instead of republics. Republicanism might be an unusual form of government ITTL.

However, if there is no American independence, would the French Revolution be butterflied away? If it is, or it happens in a different fashion, would we have the Napoleonic Wars and the Peninsular War? Would the Spanish Kings act in the same fashion, or would they compromise with the bourgeoisie and enact some sort of liberal reforms in exchange for peace.
Would we even have successful independent movements in Spanish America ITTL?

 

[Socrates]

I was writing something and accidentally closed the tab.
The main inspirations for the Hispano-American revolutionary movements were the American independence ("if they did it, why not us?") and the French Revolution. Tupac Amaru rebellion (which isn't butterflied away) was another source of inspiration, at least in Spanish South America. On top, by 1810, France, Haiti and the USA were the only republics in the world (iirc). In an ATL were there is no ARW, if there is a Hispanic American revolutionary movements, their leaders might prefer to stick to the established and choose to develop some sort of constitutional monarchy instead of republics. Republicanism might be an unusual form of government ITTL.

However, if there is no American independence, would the French Revolution be butterflied away? If it is, or it happens in a different fashion, would we have the Napoleonic Wars and the Peninsular War? Would the Spanish Kings act in the same fashion, or would they compromise with the bourgeoisie and enact some sort of liberal reforms in exchange for peace.
Would we even have successful independent movements in Spanish America ITTL?

For the sake of discussion, let's assume the French Revolution doesn't fully happen. There are protests and a political crisis, but no estates general is called and the French monarchy manages to keep a lid on things. Thus no Napoleon and no peninsular war.

As for liberal reforms, IOTL those meant centralizing power towards Madrid.

 

[juanml82]

For the sake of discussion, let's assume the French Revolution doesn't fully happen. There are protests and a political crisis, but no estates general is called and the French monarchy manages to keep a lid on things. Thus no Napoleon and no peninsular war.

As for liberal reforms, IOTL those meant centralizing power towards Madrid.

Then there are no independence wars and there is tension with the criollos regarding representation in Madrid. The British would very much like to tear the Spanish Empire apart in the Americas, but that's going to take an Anglo-Spanish war. In that situation, they'll attempt to work with local revolutionaries, like they did with Francisco de Miranda. Whether that's successful if, unlike OTL, the revolutionary patron is the same fighting the metropolis is anyone's guess.
Spain did have several civil wars during the 19th century (plus the 20th century one) anyway. So while there won't be any revolutionary war in the 1810s, the breakout of a civil war in Metropolitan Spain can easily lead to a continentally sized civil war which in turn, leads to independence wars. In that case, the UK would surely aid the revolutionaries. I don't think the Spanish Empire can survive Spain's OTL civil wars without loosing significant parts of the Empire in the process.

 

[Faeelin]

Britain didn't abstain from Latin America because of Andrew Jackson, it abstained because it had profitable markets.

 

[GauchoBadger]

Wasn't Tupac Amaru II's rebellion motivated in the most part by Spanish colonial taxes raised to finance their participation in the ARW?

 

[unprincipled peter]

For the sake of discussion, let's assume the French Revolution doesn't fully happen. There are protests and a political crisis, but no estates general is called and the French monarchy manages to keep a lid on things. Thus no Napoleon and no peninsular war.

As for liberal reforms, IOTL those meant centralizing power towards Madrid.

Without the French revolution/Nap wars, The Spanish Empire doesn't get ripped apart in the same time frame, or manner. Britain will be looking to enter Spanish and Portuguese colonial markets. OTL, the Monroe Doctrine did not drive British policy. The British allowed the Doctrine because it favored their policy. Sans a Spanish/Portuguese cataclysm, Britain will still attempt to infiltrate the markets. Neither S or P will allow that willingly, so force is going to be required. The world has changed from OTL far too much to make any predictions as to how that force will manifest itself, but you can choose your end game and write the story accordingly. As in OTL, the colonials aren't going to easily accept a new master, so direct rule by Britain is going to be a tough row to hoe.

 

[Socrates]

Without the French revolution/Nap wars, The Spanish Empire doesn't get ripped apart in the same time frame, or manner. Britain will be looking to enter Spanish and Portuguese colonial markets. OTL, the Monroe Doctrine did not drive British policy. The British allowed the Doctrine because it favored their policy. Sans a Spanish/Portuguese cataclysm, Britain will still attempt to infiltrate the markets. Neither S or P will allow that willingly, so force is going to be required. The world has changed from OTL far too much to make any predictions as to how that force will manifest itself, but you can choose your end game and write the story accordingly. As in OTL, the colonials aren't going to easily accept a new master, so direct rule by Britain is going to be a tough row to hoe.

If we have no Peninsular War and no precedent setting USA, how firm will the grip of Spain and Portugal be, and for how long? Both were declining powers.

As for Britain being a new master, a British-American Empire would be a lucrative one to join, wouldn't it?

 

[unprincipled peter]

If we have no Peninsular War and no precedent setting USA, how firm will the grip of Spain and Portugal be, and for how long? Both were declining powers.

As for Britain being a new master, a British-American Empire would be a lucrative one to join, wouldn't it?

Separatism was in the cradle in 1810. Sans the Iberian War, or a similar scale debacle, I easily see it remaining there for several decades or more. Spain and Portugal were declining, but not decrepit.

Joining the B-A empire: What are the perks over simply going independent? Britain won't be looking to treat south America as an equal, and the Americans won't want to be under the yoke of a foreign power. Economic perks can be had without the subjugation.

 

[Lenwe]

Wasn't Tupac Amaru II's rebellion motivated in the most part by Spanish colonial taxes raised to finance their participation in the ARW?

Yes and No, It´s was a process of major control of the taxes that historically have not being pay, not the introduction of new taxes, and they start to have a major control and regulation of the taxes that must being paid to finance the ARW, they will eventually do it anyways, but not in a so drastic and forceful way as was done in OTL

As for Britain being a new master, a British-American Empire would be a lucrative one to join, wouldn't it?

No, it will not, there is the epoch when British was barely in the ascending and no more rich or powerful than any other European Power, France Was richer, Spain was richer(barely) with a butterflied French revolution France could make their presence in Louisiana/Quebec stronger and put a serious damper to the 13 colonies expansion, and the Florida incorporation to the Colonies.

Spain could start their process of Economic revolution before, there were serious social and economic tension in Spain before the France invasion, that the king would have to address earlier than later, and even allow the "Indian" to develop their own industry and economic, before another revolution

What have a British-American Empire to offer to, let´s say Colombia?, Cuba?, Mexico?

 

[unprincipled peter]

No, it will not, there is the epoch when British was barely in the ascending and no more rich or powerful than any other European Power, France Was richer, Spain was richer(barely) with a butterflied French revolution France could make their presence in Louisiana/Quebec stronger and put a serious damper to the 13 colonies expansion, and the Florida incorporation to the Colonies.

I believe the POD is post seven years war. France is out of Quebec, Spain is in Louisiana. But, yeah, no LA purchase does put a damper on westward expansion.

 

[Socrates]

Yes and No, It´s was a process of major control of the taxes that historically have not being pay, not the introduction of new taxes, and they start to have a major control and regulation of the taxes that must being paid to finance the ARW, they will eventually do it anyways, but not in a so drastic and forceful way as was done in OTL

No, it will not, there is the epoch when British was barely in the ascending and no more rich or powerful than any other European Power, France Was richer, Spain was richer(barely) with a butterflied French revolution France could make their presence in Louisiana/Quebec stronger and put a serious damper to the 13 colonies expansion, and the Florida incorporation to the Colonies.

Spain could start their process of Economic revolution before, there were serious social and economic tension in Spain before the France invasion, that the king would have to address earlier than later, and even allow the "Indian" to develop their own industry and economic, before another revolution

What have a British-American Empire to offer to, let´s say Colombia?, Cuba?, Mexico?

France has already been kicked out of Louisiana and Quebec. What policies would Spain be offering terms of economic revolution?

A British-American Empire would be offering market access to a rapidly growing North American market and the world's first industrial economy.

 

[Lenwe]

France has already been kicked out of Louisiana and Quebec. What policies would Spain be offering terms of economic revolution?

In the Americas? End of the hacienda system, end of The peonage, end of the prohibition to build industries and workshops in the "indies", end of the privilege of the Peninsulares over the Criollos, end to the exclusve monopoly of spanish merchant, as was done in Buenos aires in 1800, open the colonization of the continent to Good Catholic oppressed by Protestants (basically Irish)

In Spain? end to the Mayorazgos(1820),end to the Guild and patent system, end to the Real subsidio de hacienda, support to the textill industry based in the Merino sheep.

A British-American Empire would be offering market access to a rapidly growing North American market and the world's first industrial economy.

In 1765? that is the point of divergence there is no advantage to change one colonial master for another, maybe in 1850, and still is a Maybe , if anything you will see a strong movement for independence or to make any Vice-royalty a proper Kingdom, even is possible to ask the Hapsburg for spare Princes, as the Bourbon are pretty hated in the "Indies"

 

[Socrates]

In the Americas? End of the hacienda system, end of The peonage, end of the prohibition to build industries and workshops in the "indies", end of the privilege of the Peninsulares over the Criollos, end to the exclusve monopoly of spanish merchant, as was done in Buenos aires in 1800, open the colonization of the continent to Good Catholic oppressed by Protestants (basically Irish)

In Spain? end to the Mayorazgos(1820),end to the Guild and patent system, end to the Real subsidio de hacienda, support to the textill industry based in the Merino sheep.

These things were only phased out after independence in most cases in OTL, or at least after the American and French revolutions shook the world. Prior to 1776, I don't see any enthusiasm from the Spanish and Portuguese to make these changes. The Bourbon reforms actually centralized power towards the Peninsulares even more.

In 1765? that is the point of divergence there is no advantage to change one colonial master for another, maybe in 1850, and still is a Maybe , if anything you will see a strong movement for independence or to make any Vice-royalty a proper Kingdom, even is possible to ask the Hapsburg for spare Princes, as the Bourbon are pretty hated in the "Indies"[/QUOTE]

While the POD is 1765, I'm more imagining British actions on the 1790-1830 period. During that time period, Britain had vast imports from places continents away. That's still an attractive market.

And, as you say, the Bourbons are hated. In an environment where independence has never been successfully tried by anyone else in the Americas, a loose British protectorate might well be attractive for the commercial elite. And protectorates could lead to more formal relationships over time.