Brezhnev removed from power in late '75/early '76

[MrHola]

On 7 November 1975, Captain 3rd Rank Valery Sablin seized the Storozhevoy, a Soviet Burevestnik Class missile frigate, and confined the ship's captain and other officers to the wardroom. Sablin's plan was to take the ship from the Gulf of Riga north into the Gulf of Finland and to Leningrad, through the Neva River, mooring by the decommissioned cruiser Aurora (a symbol of the Russian Revolution), where he would protest by radio and television against the rampant corruption of the Brezhnev era. He planned to say what many were saying privately: that the revolution and motherland were in danger; that the ruling authorities were up to their necks in corruption, demagoguery, graft, and lies, leading the country into an abyss; that the ideals of Communism had been discarded; and that there was a pressing need to revive Leninist principles of justice (Sablin was a strong believer in Leninist values and considered the Soviet system to have essentially "sold out").

A junior officer escaped from confinement and radioed for assistance. When the Storozhevoy cleared the mouth of the Gulf of Riga, ten bomber and reconnaissance airplanes and thirteen warships were in pursuit. Several bombs were dropped in front of and behind the ship, as well as cannon fire. Storozhevoy steering was damaged and she eventually came to a stop. The pursuing vessels then close in, and the frigate was boarded by Soviet marine commandos. By then, however, Sablin had been shot in his knee and detained by his own crew, who had also unlocked the captain and the other captive officers.

Sablin was arrested and, in May 1976, tried before a military court. He was found guilty of "treason to the Motherland." Although this crime usually carried a 15-year prison sentence, Sablin was executed on 3 August 1976. His second-in-command during the mutiny, Alexander Shein, received an eight-year prison sentence. The other mutineers were freed.

Alright. Suppose that Sablin decided to defect to Sweden instead. The Storozhevoy docks at a Swedish port and Sablin, surrounded by foreign journalists, condemns the Brezhnev regime, saying it is "un-Soviet", decadent, etc. The conservatives in Brezhnev's government, Mikhail Suslov and Yuri Andropov and others, decide that enough is enough. They carefully bide their time and strike when Brezhnev is incapacitated by a stroke (which he really was, somewhere in early 1976). They "forcibly retire him", like he did with Khrushchev.

What would happen next?

 

[omnimercurial]

It is an interesting POD but rather than a Defection which legitimately can be classed as Treason, what if instead he succeded in his objective and the Junior Officer did not escape?

Kudos to you for bringing to light what seems to be a fairly unique event to play with as Alt History.

 

[Archibald]

Tom Clancy mention the incident in Hunt for red october. Together with Viktor Belenko defection with its Mig-25 the next year - decidedly a bad time for the Soviets

 

[Napoleon IV]

Suslov probably assumes power. He was one of the most senior members of the Brezhnev regime and was considered the "grey eminence" of the Soviet Union. Suslov was also just shy of being a Stalinist, so he will increase tensions with the US and increase repression at home. Gorbachev's rise is probably averted and hardliners take command. In short, the world would be a much more tense and threatening place.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

Suslov probably assumes power. He was one of the most senior members of the Brezhnev regime and was considered the "grey eminence" of the Soviet Union. Suslov was also just shy of being a Stalinist, so he will increase tensions with the US and increase repression at home. Gorbachev's rise is probably averted and hardliners take command. In short, the world would be a much more tense and threatening place.

Suslov avoided responsibility so he doesnt take power. But he probably decides who's next. Kirilenko?

 

[MrHola]

It is probably someone he could easily control. Don't think it's going to be Andropov - probably too junior at that point. Kirilenko is too much of a Brezhnevite; same with Chernenko. How about Nikolai Podgorny? Or Kosygin?

 

[David T]

I'm just not sold on the idea that this episode is going to result in the removal of Brezhnev. In OTL no mater how incompetent he became and however evident it was that he was not up to coping with the USSR's problems, there seems to have been no serious attempt to remove him. And of course the episode will be covered up by the Soviet media, anyway. True, some Soviet citizens will hear about it from foreign radio broadcasts, etc., and rumors will circulate, but I don't see that much political effect.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

It is probably someone he could easily control. Don't think it's going to be Andropov - probably too junior at that point. Kirilenko is too much of a Brezhnevite; same with Chernenko. How about Nikolai Podgorny? Or Kosygin?

Podgorny and Kosygin were already pushed to the wayside by then.

Cant be Andropov or Ustinov - military/kgb to gensec doesnt work to well...

 

[MrHola]

I'm just not sold on the idea that this episode is going to result in the removal of Brezhnev. In OTL no mater how incompetent he became and however evident it was that he was not up to coping with the USSR's problems, there seems to have been no serious attempt to remove him. And of course the episode will be covered up by the Soviet media, anyway. True, some Soviet citizens will hear about it from foreign radio broadcasts, etc., and rumors will circulate, but I don't see that much political effect.

I don't know, where talking about a Soviet naval officer commandeering his ship because he was sick and tired of the way things were in Soviet Union. Surely, this will have some effects?

 

[David T]

I don't know, where talking about a Soviet naval officer commandeering his ship because he was sick and tired of the way things were in Soviet Union. Surely, this will have some effects?

One captain, third class. Not exactly either a mass mutiny or an indication of dissatisfaction in the highest ranks...

 

[politicalnomad]

As A Suslov Figurehead....

Viktor Grishin or Grigory Romanov, the respective party bosses for Moscow and Leningrad? They're both hopelessly corrupt, but probably pliable.

Arvīds Pelše strikes me as another possible candidate, though he's a Balt and I don't know how that would play.

 

[Dunning Kruger]

Viktor Grishin or Grigory Romanov, the respective party bosses for Moscow and Leningrad? They're both hopelessly corrupt, but probably pliable.

Arvīds Pelše strikes me as another possible candidate, though he's a Balt and I don't know how that would play.

Romanov's too young. Maybe Grishin. What about Tikhonov?