Brazil's Old Republic was overthrown in 1924?

[Vinization]

In July 5, 1924, a group of military rebels (the Tenentes) led by Isidoro Dias Lopes led a revolt in São Paulo against the Brazilian Old Republic and its president, Artur Bernardes. However, although they eventually took the city after a few days, by the time their control of it was secured they were effectively besieged by government troops and forced to retreat.

What if the revolt went as planned? Say the tenentes capture São Paulo city in a single swift blow, depose the governor, then take over the rest of the state before the federal government can react? Would Isidoro and his allies, such as Eduardo Gomes and Juarez Távora (whose brother, Joaquim, may survive instead of being mortally wounded in the fighting like IOTL), be able to march on Rio de Janeiro and depose Bernardes? How would the other states react?

Assuming the rebels win, what would happen next? Could the country become a genuine democracy over time, or would it eventually become a dictatorship? Who would become president?

What is certain is that a lot of political careers will be affected by the butteflies. Getúlio Vargas may never become governor of Rio Grande do Sul, for example, and Luís Carlos Prestes might not become a communist ITTL (or be anywhere near as famous because the Coluna is averted) since he only started studying Marxism during his exile in Bolivia.

Tagging @Gukpard, @ByzantineCaesar, @Miguel Lanius and @Monter.

 

[TimTurner]

is a restoration of the Braganza possible?

 

[Vinization]

is a restoration of the Braganza possible?

No.

 

[TimTurner]

Where was Vargas at this point in time?

 

[Vinization]

Where was Vargas at this point in time?

He had just become a federal deputy representing the state of Rio Grande do Sul. He's definitely smart enough to take advantage of this revolution to climb the political ladder, but there's a real chance he may not become president ITTL.

 

[TimTurner]

He had just become a federal deputy representing the state of Rio Grande do Sul. He's definitely smart enough to take advantage of this revolution to climb the political ladder, but there's a real chance he may not become president ITTL.

It says something about his ability to climb the ladder that he's even in the running here, in this ATL.

 

[Vinization]

It says something about his ability to climb the ladder that he's even in the running here, in this ATL.

I'm honestly just throwing his name here because he served as president for 15 years straight IOTL. Other people who could've led Brazil from the mid 20s to the 40s include, but are not limited to: Isidoro himself if he had political ambitions (I don't know), José Joaquim Seabra (served as governor of Bahia twice), some other tenente, including Prestes if he doesn't turn red (another butterfly is he wouldn't meet Olga Benário ITTL), Pedro Ernesto Batista (he was already an ally of the revolutionaries back then and may become mayor of Rio de Janeiro sooner), Protógenes Guimarães, and many others.

 

[Vinization]

Tagging other Brazilians again: @Guilherme Loureiro @Miguel Lanius @Gukpard @Monter @ByzantineCaesar

 

[Gukpard]

In July 5, 1924, a group of military rebels (the Tenentes) led by Isidoro Dias Lopes led a revolt in São Paulo against the Brazilian Old Republic and its president, Artur Bernardes. However, although they eventually took the city after a few days, by the time their control of it was secured they were effectively besieged by government troops and forced to retreat.

What if the revolt went as planned? Say the tenentes capture São Paulo city in a single swift blow, depose the governor, then take over the rest of the state before the federal government can react? Would Isidoro and his allies, such as Eduardo Gomes and Juarez Távora (whose brother, Joaquim, may survive instead of being mortally wounded in the fighting like IOTL), be able to march on Rio de Janeiro and depose Bernardes? How would the other states react?

Assuming the rebels win, what would happen next? Could the country become a genuine democracy over time, or would it eventually become a dictatorship? Who would become president?

What is certain is that a lot of political careers will be affected by the butteflies. Getúlio Vargas may never become governor of Rio Grande do Sul, for example, and Luís Carlos Prestes might not become a communist ITTL (or be anywhere near as famous because the Coluna is averted) since he only started studying Marxism during his exile in Bolivia.

Tagging @Gukpard, @ByzantineCaesar, @Miguel Lanius and @Monter.

I know Miguel Costa Grandgrandson and bought his book, and basically, it would be difficult for one main reason, Brazil was too undeveloped for a revolution like that, it seems that it was terribly difficult to coordinate stuff since there was not even the most basic telegraphic lines in some places, so the government was able to blackout most of the population of what was happening. Assuming it works, Brazil might transition into a armed liberal democracy, not in a military junta, because Miguel Costa was a liberal. Isidoro probably wouldn't have taken power by himself since he didn't held political ambitions OTL, while Miguel Costa made the PPP party in São Paulo. (fun history trivia, the PPP was fastly going so the rebels attacked their headquarter in São Paulo in 1932, that is when the MMDC plus one guy got shot)

Prestes probably don't turn into a communist also, when he was under Isidoro he didn't had a set ideology and turned into communist after the column failed. Salgado also was a member of the PPP, and this was before he turned integralist, so imagine Salgado and Prestes as members of the same government? Real alt history moment.

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

For a second there I thought you meant a monarchical restoration (which wouldn’t be off limits btw, provided no or a limited WW1). We could see a military dictatorship for national salvation, but not necessarily with the influence of positivism and scientific authoritarianism. It may look more similar to Deodoro & Hermes than the Estado Novo.

 

[Vinization]

To provide a POD that could swing a bigger part of the Brazilian military onto the rebels' side, how about having Hermes da Fonseca die in prison, something that would undoubtedly anger quite a few officers and raise suspicions that he was either murdered or mistreated? He did pass away a few months after his release in 1923.

Also, there were other, smaller revolts in Amazonas and Alagoas at the time. If the government is too busy dealing with São Paulo these two rebellions might be able to spread throughout the North and the Northeast, respectively, convincing the military commanders in Rio de Janeiro to get rid of Bernardes and make a deal with the tenentes.

Some support from the governors who supported Nilo Peçanha's presidential campaign in 1922, namely Borges de Medeiros (RS) and José Joaquim Seabra (BA), would definitely help too.

 

[Gukpard]

To provide a POD that could swing a bigger part of the Brazilian military onto the rebels' side, how about having Hermes da Fonseca die in prison, something that would undoubtedly anger quite a few officers and raise suspicions that he was either murdered or mistreated? He did pass away a few months after his release in 1923.

Also, there were other, smaller revolts in Amazonas and Alagoas at the time. If the government is too busy dealing with São Paulo these two rebellions might be able to spread throughout the North and the Northeast, respectively, convincing the military commanders in Rio de Janeiro to get rid of Bernardes and make a deal with the tenentes.

Some support from the governors who supported Nilo Peçanha's presidential campaign in 1922, namely Borges de Medeiros (RS) and José Joaquim Seabra (BA), would definitely help too.

1924 was the closest Brazil had to a real revolution, (we had moviments like the 1935 communist coup that would bring revolutionary change but they lacked civilian support)

The military top brass wouldn't support it as they wanted a military dictatorship that kept people excluded, basically a old republic with the army on the top, not a modern republic like the rebels wanted

 

[Vinization]

1924 was the closest Brazil had to a real revolution, (we had moviments like the 1935 communist coup that would bring revolutionary change but they lacked civilian support)

The military top brass wouldn't support it as they wanted a military dictatorship that kept people excluded, basically a old republic with the army on the top, not a modern republic like the rebels wanted

They could do it to save their own skin.

BTW, along with the other tenente revolts there was also a conspiracy led by Protógenes Guimarães to take over a battleship and open fire on Rio de Janeiro. If you have the rebels taking over SP, the North, the Northeast and finally shelling the capital from the sea, Bernardes may well flee.

 

[Gukpard]

They could do it to save their own skin.

BTW, along with the other tenente revolts there was also a conspiracy led by Protógenes Guimarães to take over a battleship and open fire on Rio de Janeiro. If you have the rebels taking over SP, the North, the Northeast and finally shelling the capital from the sea, Bernardes may well flee.

The army could aide with Protogenes on this case seeing as a alternative that would fit their ideals.

But assuming there is only the 1924 revolution, no parallel moviments and it is going to succeed, your scenario would work and they would side with the rebels to save their skin. The government would be a liberal democracy but with a strong army and a command economy to overcome Brazil backwardness, it would be blessed in some ways.

Now time for history trivia. In exange for accepting to persue the column, Bernardes granted Marshall Rondon eternal tax exemption. Later in 1930 Miguel Costa was on the train moving to Rio to commemorate the victory and he discovered that for some reason Rondon was invited too, so he got permission to move into Rondon wagon and he announced he was under arrest for his repression of the 1924 revolt. Rondon then said something on the lines of "You took a day to do what I couldn't do with you in three years!".

Miguel Costa also used the 1924 civil war to test the flame thrower, who had just arrived in Brazil.

Costa party is usually positioned as fascist by supporters of 1932 to paint their purge of his supporters as rightfull, but it was liberal instead. It had a militia, the legião revolucionária, but this was normal in parties back then.
This is their hymn by the way:

Finally, Costa was arrested for the dumbest reason possible in 1938, basically Vargas ordered that not only communists but sympatisers should be arrested too, so someone tough that since Prestes was a communist in 1938 and Costa was his ally back in 1924, Costa would be a communist sympatiser, even tough Prestes was by no means a communist back in '24. Miguel then got arrested and was in prison until 1943.

Costa died giving a on air interview in 1959. Basically he told his experiences through his career on a paulista TV show (back on the 50s Brazil had more TV channels than the USA due the low regulations on the sector). After finishing he got applauded by everyone and had a heart attack at live and fell off the podium before they could turn the cameras off, quite a way to go.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

Tagging other Brazilians again: @Guilherme Loureiro @Miguel Lanius @Gukpard @Monter @ByzantineCaesar

Wow, I feel happy to be included.

Can't help much here, my knowledge of the Old Republic is lacking. Its a fascinating period, really.

Worth noting that Artur Bernardes was pretty much a dictator, the man had a concentration camp in the amazon (Clevelândia do Norte), loads of people arrested in floating military brigs near the Rio shores, etc. Much of his government was spent during a State of Siege - essentially Martial Law. He's definitively the kind of man who would move to ruthlessly crush a rebellion. Definitively one of the Top 10 Worst Brazilian Presidents.

This may either doom the rebels or help them - say, if Artur's arbitrariness drives allies away from him when the Rebellion starts. Especially people in the military.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

This may either doom the rebels or help them - say, if Artur's arbitrariness drives allies away from him when the Rebellion starts. Especially people in the military.

My impression is that if the OTL rebellion - with the 1,000-2,000 deaths that ensued in its repression, as well as the bombing of the second largest city of Brazil at the time - didn't succeed in ousting Bernardes from power, it's rather unlikely an ATL rebellion would succeed, given similar circumstances; there's not enough people in the military unhappy enough to go for it. Of course, Bernardes' policies helped pave the way for an environment where enough people in the military would be willing to bring down the government by force.

EDIT:

Finally, Costa was arrested for the dumbest reason possible in 1938, basically Vargas ordered that not only communists but sympatisers should be arrested too, so someone tough that since Prestes was a communist in 1938 and Costa was his ally back in 1924, Costa would be a communist sympatiser, even tough Prestes was by no means a communist back in '24. Miguel then got arrested and was in prison until 1943.

Eh, I'd say that they knew exactly what they were doing back then. Remember that Vargas had spent 5 years balancing a lot of groups, including the many Tenentista factions, and the Estado Novo repression was in many aspects a continuation of the purging he was doing after the Intentona Comunista, except he was purging the factions he used to purge the ANL. Why wouldn't he take the time to put a possible opponent in check?

 

[Gukpard]

Eh, I'd say that they knew exactly what they were doing back then. Remember that Vargas had spent 5 years balancing a lot of groups, including the many Tenentista factions, and the Estado Novo repression was in many aspects a continuation of the purging he was doing after the Intentona Comunista, except he was purging the factions he used to purge the ANL. Why wouldn't he take the time to put a possible opponent in check?

It was not Vargas who ordered him arrested, but a official complying with the government guidelines.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

It was not Vargas who ordered him arrested, but a official complying with the government guidelines.

I understand that. But I think he didn't mind that it happened too much. EDIT: Or there was some plausible deniability involved. Vargas was capable of ruthlessness - the Estado Novo wouldn't have happened otherwise.

 

[Gukpard]

I understand that. But I think he didn't mind that it happened too much. EDIT: Or there was some plausible deniability involved. Vargas was capable of ruthlessness - the Estado Novo wouldn't have happened otherwise.

I find that unlikely to be the case since Miguel Costa was really pro Vargas at the time, even the New State was seen as the opportunity to finally do what he wanted in 1924. This is of course conjuncture since the only info I have is that he was pro Vargas and got arrested for being a "communist simpatiser" for a clearly fake reason.

 

[Vinization]

My impression is that if the OTL rebellion - with the 1,000-2,000 deaths that ensued in its repression, as well as the bombing of the second largest city of Brazil at the time - didn't succeed in ousting Bernardes from power, it's rather unlikely an ATL rebellion would succeed, given similar circumstances; there's not enough people in the military unhappy enough to go for it. Of course, Bernardes' policies helped pave the way for an environment where enough people in the military would be willing to bring down the government by force.

The OTL rebellion was confined to the city of São Paulo itself. If there are a few more unhappy people in the military (which is why I proposed having the POD be Fonseca dying in prison), and the civilian governors who supported Nilo Peçanha against Bernardes (Borges de Medeiros and José Joaquim Seabra) rebel as well, maybe Isidoro and his allies could quickly take over Sampa and then the rest of the state (putting them in Rio de Janeiro's doorstep), instead of being besieged in the capital.