Brazilian WI: The Dantas Project passes?

Vinization

With the abolitionist movement in Brazil growing ever more vigorous after the end of slavery in the provinces of Ceará and Amazonas, newly inaugurated prime minister Manuel Pinto de Sousa Dantas, a member of the Liberal Party, presented to the Chamber of Deputies a bill which proposed to emancipate every enslaved person over the age of 60 without any compensation to their owners, as well as the creation of "agricultural colonies" (I couldn't find a better term for that in English) whose plan was to eventually turn the former slaves into small landowners.

Naturally, the Conservative Party was absolutely livid with this proposal, as were several Liberal deputies who came from districts where slavery was still strong. Even so, the "Dantas Project", as the prime minister's bill became known, was defeated in the Chamber of Deputies by a margin of just seven votes, and when he was finally brought down by a vote of no confidence, his government lost by just two votes.

So, what if the Liberals were somehow less divided for whatever reason, and the bill passed? It'll still have to be voted on by the Senate, which was presided by the Baron of Cotegipe (a guy who voted against the Golden Law IOTL), so it'll almost certainly need at least some amendments to pass through the upper house. Dantas was completely against any sort of compensation to the slaveowners (according to the source I'm using he said the idea was monstrous), so even if the bill is watered down somewhat (probably on the bits calling for land reform) I doubt it'll be to the extent it was IOTL, with the Saraiva-Cotegipe Law.

Last but definitely not least, will this make the end of the monarchy more or less likely ITTL? The Dantas Project's success will empower the radical wing of the Liberal Party, which included guys like Ruy Barbosa.

@Aluma @ByzantineCaesar @Gukpard @John I of Brazil @Kaiser of Brazil @Taunay
 
Last edited:
Taunay

Taunay

Vinization said:
With the abolitionist movement in Brazil growing ever more vigorous after the end of slavery in the provinces of Ceará and Amazonas, newly inaugurated prime minister Manuel Pinto de Sousa Dantas, a member of the Liberal Party, presented to the Chamber of Deputies a bill which proposed to emancipate every enslaved person over the age of 60 without any compensation to their owners, as well as the creation of "agricultural colonies" (I couldn't find a better term for that in English) whose plan was to eventually turn the former slaves into small landowners.

Naturally, the Conservative Party was absolutely livid with this proposal, as were several Liberal deputies who came from districts where slavery was still strong. Even so, the "Dantas Project", as the prime minister's bill became known, was defeated in the Chamber of Deputies by a margin of just seven votes, and when he was finally brought down by a vote of no confidence, his government lost by just two votes.

So, what if the Liberals were somehow less divided for whatever reason, and the bill passed? It'll still have to be voted on by the Senate, which was presided by the Baron of Cotegipe (a guy who voted against the Golden Law IOTL), so it'll almost certainly need at least some amendments to pass through the upper house. Dantas was completely against any sort of compensation to the slaveowners (according to the source I'm using he said the idea was monstrous), so even if the bill is watered down somewhat (probably on the bits calling for land reform) I doubt it'll be to the extent it was IOTL, with the Saraiva-Cotegipe Law.

Last but definitely not least, will this make the end of the monarchy more or less likely ITTL? The Dantas Project's success will empower the radical wing of the Liberal Party, which included guys like Ruy Barbosa.

@Aluma @ByzantineCaesar @Gukpard @John I of Brazil @Kaiser of Brazil @Taunay
Click to expand...
May I ask you where you found this? I really like studying these obscure events in Brazilian history that make for great what-ifs
 
Aluma

Aluma

I dont think the law itself makes much of a difference, if it had came in 1880 or earlier before the death of Pedro II's heir I could see it making a difference but after it he had already grown deluded with the monarchy so it'd be just bringing the Golden Law 5 years earlier as it still set the end of slavery to take place in 1889

What I believe could and likely would save the monarchy however would be the continuation of Dantas's government by avoiding the no-confidence vote, which like you said only took 2 votes which could be butterflied away as easily as two conservatives waking up late

If his government continued to rule till at least the 1890s I see the Republic being butterflied away due to the fact Deodoro & co would have no personal reason to support the coup and his government was in good terms with Pedro II, who himself comissioned and supported the project

That means, if the institution can outlast Pedro's apathy, that Isabel would rule with support of the Liberal Party and her in turn would support their policies(likely even more radically than Pedro, as she signed the Golden Law IOTL)

This likely means the state being openly antagonistic towards the former slave owner elite, as both Isabel and Dantas - whom like you said thought even compensating them was morally monstrous - would stand against their interests

This on one hand means a "Café com Leite" Empire is butterflied away, at least in the short-medium term, due to this antagonistic relationship between the state and the elites

But that also means there would likely be a uprising much like the ones the OTL early republic suffered, more in like with the Paulista Rebellion, trying to reassert the elite's control over the state and the implementation of policies that serve their interests(proclaiming a Republic included)

However if the liberal rule is stable, I see the loyalist forces serving the government and the crown crushing it like the Old Republic did with its own share of rebellions, which could mean a Agrarian Reform is passed as result of the estabilishment turning even more radical in the short term due to the uprising, before inevitably backpedalling a bit later to reconciliate itself with what is left of these elites once the government moderates(and needs more money)

All in alll good TL material
You could call it something along the lines of "Are two votes worth a nation?" if you wanted to do something with it
 
Aluma

Aluma

Taunay said:
May I ask you where you found this? I really like studying these obscure events in Brazilian history that make for great what-ifs
Click to expand...

I know you asked Vini but I found some links from a quick Google search, they're all very interesting

pt.m.wikipedia.org

Projeto Dantas – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre

pt.m.wikipedia.org pt.m.wikipedia.org

Projeto Dantas - Wikisource

pt.m.wikisource.org pt.m.wikisource.org



www12.senado.leg.br

Projeto levou polêmica ao Parlamento

Se, por um lado, levar o debate sobre a abolição para o âmbito legislativo ajudou a acalmar as ruas, por outro, no próprio Parlamento os ânimos se viram acirrados com a apresentação do projeto que redundou na Lei dos Sexagenários. A proposta foi responsável pela renúncia do presidente da Câmara...
www12.senado.leg.br www12.senado.leg.br

Projeto Dantas - História do Brasil

Texto sobre o Projeto Dantas, que pretendia acabar com a escravidão no Brasil durante o governo de D. Pedro II.
www.infoescola.com

O Projeto Dantas e o Parecer de Ruy Barbosa sobre a lei dos sexagenários

acervodigital.ufpr.br acervodigital.ufpr.br

Metadados do item: Emancipação dos escravos : o Projeto Dantas: (dos sexagenários): e o parecer que o justifica

oasisbr.ibict.br oasisbr.ibict.br
 

Vinization

Aluma said:
I dont think the law itself makes much of a difference, if it had came in 1880 or earlier before the death of Pedro II's heir I could see it making a difference but after it he had already grown deluded with the monarchy so it'd be just bringing the Golden Law 5 years earlier as it still set the end of slavery to take place in 1889

What I believe could and likely would save the monarchy however would be the continuation of Dantas's government by avoiding the no-confidence vote, which like you said only took 2 votes which could be butterflied away as easily as two conservatives waking up late

If his government continued to rule till at least the 1890s I see the Republic being butterflied away due to the fact Deodoro & co would have no personal reason to support the coup and his government was in good terms with Pedro II, who himself comissioned and supported the project

That means, if the institution can outlast Pedro's apathy, that Isabel would rule with support of the Liberal Party and her in turn would support their policies(likely even more radically than Pedro, as she signed the Golden Law IOTL)

This likely means the state being openly antagonistic towards the former slave owner elite, as both Isabel and Dantas - whom like you said thought even compensating them was morally monstrous - would stand against their interests

This on one hand means a "Café com Leite" Empire is butterflied away, at least in the short-medium term, due to this antagonistic relationship between the state and the elites

But that also means there would likely be a uprising much like the ones the OTL early republic suffered, more in like with the Paulista Rebellion, trying to reassert the elite's control over the state and the implementation of policies that serve their interests(proclaiming a Republic included)

However if the liberal rule is stable, I see the loyalist forces serving the government and the crown crushing it like the Old Republic did with its own share of rebellions, which could mean a Agrarian Reform is passed as result of the estabilishment turning even more radical in the short term due to the uprising, before inevitably backpedalling a bit later to reconciliate itself with what is left of these elites once the government moderates(and needs more money)

All in alll good TL material
You could call it something along the lines of "Are two votes worth a nation?" if you wanted to do something with it
Click to expand...
Besides what you already wrote, the one thing I'm really curious about is how the Liberal Party could develop from the POD onward. This was a period of fierce internal debate for them, especially after their downfall and Cotegipe's rise to the prime ministership. From what I could find (and the article is a good source on that) the Viscount of Ouro Preto had lots of plans to reform the state (turn the Senate into a temporary office instead of a lifetime one, ending the Council of State's influence on politics, reforming the franchise and others) and a huge majority in the legislature (something like 100 out of 125 deputies for example) ready to pass them. Of course, none of this ever saw the light of the day thanks to the coup.

Dantas avoiding his OTL probably means the Liberals will want to go even further in their proposals, courtesy of Ruy Barbosa and his allies. Brazil might become a federation without the, ahem, "excesses" of the Old Republic.
 
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