Brazil enforces the 1831 prohibition of the slave trade?

[Vinization]

At the pressure of Great Britain, the Empire of Brazil outlawed the importation of slaves from Africa in 1831. After a few years, however, the slave trade returned with a vengeance and the law was blatantly disrespected, with as many as 800.000 slaves being brought to Brazil in the period between 1831 and 1850, when the trade was definitely suppressed with the Eusébio de Querós Law.

So, how can we make the 1831 law be enforced? Would a longer period of liberal rule in the Regency help? Let's say Diogo Feijó has an easier time and lfewer revolts to handle so he doesn't resign in 1837, but rather stays as regent until 1840, when Pedro II takes power as emperor.

What would be the effects of the Transatlantic Slave Trade ending twenty years earlier? Could we see the empire abolishing slavery in 1869 rather than in 1889?

EDIT: Also, I assume coffee exports would take a longer time to become as relevant to our economy as they did OTL.

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

It was enforced. It’s only about after 1837 or so that it stopped being enforced. In order for it to be enforced you need to have a much stabler Brazil, preferably one without a regency period. It only stopped being enforced when the imperial government needed the additional revenue from tariffs (both slaves and coffee) to combat the regency rebellions and to coalition-build with the Southeast Brazil (all slaveholders) to defend the monarchy and promote centralization.

 

[Vinization]

It was enforced. It’s only about after 1837 or so that it stopped being enforced. In order for it to be enforced you need to have a much stabler Brazil, preferably one without a regency period. It only stopped being enforced when the imperial government needed the additional revenue from tariffs (both slaves and coffee) to combat the regency rebellions and to coalition-build with the Southeast Brazil (all slaveholders) to defend the monarchy and promote centralization.

That's why I thought about having fewer revolts during the Regency period, preferably during Feijó's tenure since the trade picked back up after his departure. Do you know when the 1810 tariffs expired?

 

[ByzantineCaesar]

That's why I thought about having fewer revolts during the Regency period, preferably during Feijó's tenure since the trade picked back up after his departure. Do you know when the 1810 tariffs expired?

Here is the text of the treaty.

If I understood the wording of article 28 correctly, the treaty had a base duration of fifteen years, which could be extended if both parties agreed. If the treaty was repudiated, its legal provisions would remain in force for another two years before disappearing. Therefore, as the treaty was ratified in 1827 it would expire in 1842. Given the two year repudiation time window, all legal obligations would cease in 1844, which as you know is the year that the Alves Branco tariffs came into force in Brazil, and “coincidentally” one year before Britain started preying on Brazilian shipping in the name of combatting piracy and the slave trade.

 

[Vinization]

Here is the text of the treaty.

If I understood the wording of article 28 correctly, the treaty had a base duration of fifteen years, which could be extended if both parties agreed. If the treaty was repudiated, its legal provisions would remain in force for another two years before disappearing. Therefore, as the treaty was ratified in 1827 it would expire in 1842. Given the two year repudiation time window, all legal obligations would cease in 1844, which as you know is the year that the Alves Branco tariffs came into force in Brazil, and “coincidentally” one year before Britain started preying on Brazilian shipping in the name of combatting piracy and the slave trade.

Thanks for the information.

Speaking of regent Feijó, back when he was minister of justice (1831-32) he tried to have José Bonifácio, who was then Pedro II's tutor, fired, according to wikipedia. Though the initiative passed the Chamber of Deputies, it was defeated in the Senate by one vote and he resigned. Do you think that, had Bonifácio been defeated that time, Feijó could've stayed on the cabinet and then become regent on a stronger position than OTL?

 

[Gloss]

I think Brazil could try to tap into some of the Irish famine emigration during the late 40s to find workers. If ALL slave imports are prevented then Brazil would import 750k fewer slaves which means a reduction of 15% in the total amount of slaves Brazil would have imported.
In terms of ethnic demographics the South-East and South region of Brazil would have less African ancestry given than most of the slave imports went there(almost 80%)

 

[Vinization]

I think Brazil could try to tap into some of the Irish famine emigration during the late 40s to find workers. If ALL slave imports are prevented then Brazil would import 750k fewer slaves which means a reduction of 15% in the total amount of slaves Brazil would have imported.
In terms of ethnic demographics the South-East and South region of Brazil would have less African ancestry given than most of the slave imports went there(almost 80%)

The coffee planters would probably buy slaves from the Northeast before switching to immigrants. Which means that not only nationwide slavery could be abolished in the 1860s, but provinces like Ceará (which abolished slavery in 1884 IOTL) could get rid of said institution even earlier.

 

[Banghogs]

Brazil would be an example of renewed, freedom-friend nation to Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia and other countries in Latin America. Followed by the USA flow (Thirteenth Amendment) in 1865, the slavery would pretty much end in the 1870's. That would make the economy a bit weaker in that time, but would probably recover in the beginning of the 1920's, as the "Brazilian Industrial Revolution" would come a bit earlier (instead of the 30's Vargas era) in a more stable political scenario.

 

[Vinization]

Brazil would be an example of renewed, freedom-friend nation to Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia and other countries in Latin America. Followed by the USA flow (Thirteenth Amendment) in 1865, the slavery would pretty much end in the 1870's. That would make the economy a bit weaker in that time, but would probably recover in the beginning of the 1920's, as the "Brazilian Industrial Revolution" would come a bit earlier (instead of the 30's Vargas era) in a more stable political scenario.

Lots of things could happen. Who's to say we wouldn't industrialize in the 1870s/80s? With a POD in the 1830s one can prevent Mauá's downfall or perhaps bring him to even greater heights.