Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

Guess Who's Shooting at Dinner
  • Guess Who's Shooting at Dinner [1]​

    "...under the relevant articles of the Constitution of the Fourth Republic of Korea, the city of Busan and the city of Masan are hereby officially under martial law. A strict curfew will be enforced, and any resistance to said curfew will not be tolerated..."

    - KBS Announcement of martial law in response to Bu-Ma Protest Movement


    South Korean President Park Chung-hee was, for the first time since he narrowly won the 1963 Presidential elections, truly politically endangered. A siege mentality had descended over the Blue House; not only were protests spreading in Busan and Masan over the expulsion of opposition leader Kim Young-sam from the National Assembly, but now sympathy protests seemed to be emerging across the country, even in Seoul. Thousands had been arrested, and dozens wounded in the ensuing crackdown. The mood within Park's inner circle was funereal, divided between the more moderate and accommodationist KCIA Director Kim Jae-gyu and the fierce hardline chief security advisor/head bodyguard for President Park, Cha Ji-chul.

    Park was not well served by either of his close subordinates; the dispute between Kim and Cha had become so toxic they refused to work together, and Cha's Rasputin-like influence over the President to Kim seemed to be doing nothing but destabilizing the situation. Cha controlled almost an entire division of the army in Seoul personally; Kim the entire security apparatus. As the paranoia set in, something had to give - the United States' warning about Kim Young-sam was sternly worded and tensions in the alliance could not become more fraught with the events in the southwest of the country.

    Kim finally decided that the ROK needed a savior - him, in other words. At a dinner on October 26, 1979, he brought with him a gun. Korean historians have debated to this day what Kim's intentions were with his weapon. Had he premeditated the attack with other co-conspirators, as Park would later allege? Or was it a snap decision in the heat of the moment? Whatever the case, Kim drew the gun and opened fire while at the dinner table in the Blue House's safe house, striking President Park in the upper right chest and Cha in the arm, before he was wrestled to the ground by Chief Secretary Kim Gye-won. Outside, Park's bodyguards heard the shots and got into a shooting match with two KCIA men Kim had stationed outside; all four died of gunshot wounds sustained. Cha, outraged, rounded the table, snatched the loose gun from the floor and shot Kim Jae-gyu twice in the head at point blank range, killing him instantly.

    Park was rushed to a hospital and the regime plunged into chaos. Army Chief of Staff Jeung Seung-hwa, dining in an adjacent room, ordered his guards to seize KCIA Deputy Director Kim Jeong-seop after hearing angry shouts that "the KCIA is murdering the President!" The swift move may have been decisive in securing his survival in the ensuing purge; despite suspicions from other corners of the Army that he may have been involved, Jeung's show of loyalty and quick radioing to his army units to impose martial law on Seoul and mobilize in case of "instability" (read: a North Korean attack once their spies inevitably learned of Park's wounding) kept him out of Park and Cha's immediate suspicions, which would prove a grave mistake.

    Cha mobilized his own units while stubbornly accepting medical attention at the Blue House; for several hours on the evening of October 26, it was unclear who, exactly, was in charge of the Republic. Security Command chief Chun Doo-hwan, recently installed and ever-ambitious, ordered an immediate review and telephoned Cha throughout the night to draw up a list of potential co-conspirators, all of them incidentally their enemies within the national security establishment. Cha reassured Chun that he would immediately suggest their mutual friend Roh Tae-woo for the next director of the KCIA and expand their mutual influence to that body as well; Jeong, aware that both Chun and Roh were members of the secretive and exclusive (and quite political) Hanahoe faction of the ROK Army, needed a plan of his own as it became clear that Park's wounds were severe and though he seemed likely to survive, the power vacuum that could ensue and the groundswell of support that it would provide the democracy movement potentially would create chaos.

    The 27th brought the first leak that Park was in distress; incidentally, the United States found out about it from a well-placed mole in Pyongyang before they heard about it from Jeong, who had established backchannels with Secretary of State Bush earlier in the year as they discussed ways to work around Park to try to suspend South Korea's nuclear weapons program. Fearing that North Korea might try to take advantage of the assassination attempt and Park's lengthy surgery to save his life, US forces in South Korea, Okinawa and the Japanese Home Islands were mobilized, and naval assets in the area placed on high alert. Late October of 1979 was, in East Asia, one of the tensest times in recent memory, and nobody quite knew what would come next once Park emerged from the barricaded wing at the army hospital where Kim Gye-won ordered him taken...

    [1] Not to toot my own horn too much, but this may be the best chapter title I've ever come up with
     
    1979 United States gubernatorial elections
  • 1979 United States gubernatorial elections

    Kentucky: Incumbent Julian Carroll (D) term-limited. Harvey Sloane (D) 54.1%, Louie Nunn (R) 44.1% [1] - D Hold
    Louisiana: Incumbent Edwin Edwards (D) term-limited. Jimmy Fitzmorris (D) 57.8%, Louis Lambert (D) 42.2% [2] - D Hold
    Mississippi: Incumbet Cliff Finch (D) term-limited. William Winter (D) 64.5%, Gil Carmichael (R) 32.1% - D Hold

    [1] The attacks on John Y. Brown's wealth, extravagance and inexperience by Terry McBrayer in the primary work... and Sloane, running a positive campaign on his accomplishments as Mayor of Louisville, wins the primary as a result! However, his profile as an urban Democrat in a liberal, large-black population city dings him a bit against Nunn in a racially polarized campaign
    [2] Shoddy poll numbers for Republicans nationwide narrowly keep Dave Treen out of the runoffs in Louisiana's unique jungle primary, and as a result the more conservative Fitzmorris beats Lambert going away despite his personal scandals and controversies (this is Louisiana in the 1970s after all)
     
    Ryan's Revenge Tour
  • Ryan's Revenge Tour

    "...I said a year ago I would do everything in my power to see to it that the Jonestown families saw justice, and that everyone - and I mean everyone - who let this cult, this cancer, and the madman at the top of it prosper, thrive and build influence in this state would have to pay a penalty for the rest of their careers. I swore, from my hospital bed after being told I'd never walk again, that I would make it my mission in life..."

    - Congressman Leo Ryan after San Francisco Municipal Elections


    The 1970s had, if it was possible, been even more volatile in San Francisco than even the 1960s had. In later years, historians would claim that "in Frisco, the 60s never really ended." The Alioto and Moscone mayoralties had started in the shadow of the Zodiac Killings, Symbionese Liberation Army and Zebra murders and beyond that been tumultuous in their own right, including the former having his house bombed by the SFPD during a labor strife [1], and the emergence of an activist gay community in the city had polarized public opinions and even led to police riots on Castro Street, and made Supervisor Harvey Milk a celebrity in his state and lightning rod for conservatives.

    And that was all before the Jonestown murders and political fallout of the People's Temple.

    1979's city elections, then, promised to be a punctuation mark on a decade of chaos and change. Moscone, against the advice of many of his political allies such as Carol Ruth Silver or Milk, decided to seek a second term. He viewed his role as a polarizing figure as a sign that he was doing something right, particularly the contempt he drew from "the reactionaries." His longtime foe on the Board of Supes, Dianne Feinstein, was retiring back to private life; conservative Supervisor Quentin Kopp seemed like his likeliest opponent and he was confident in his ability to make the race a referendum on "bringing Jerry Ford to the Bay."

    Moscone's analysis was simplistic, and he forgot one of the most important rules of politics - you're only as powerful as your allies allow you to be, and you're always expendable to your allies. Milk in particular was profoundly skeptical Moscone could earn reelection after the People's Temple killings and the cult's heavy association with the Mayor, and worried that Kopp and the "Feinstein faction" would take power easily against the embattled Mayor. With a liberal majority on the Board likely with Feinstein retiring and Kopp giving up his seat to run for Mayor, Milk thought the best solution was to tack to the middle, surprising many of his allies and fellow activists. His evolution as a pragmatic operator had only just begun.

    To that effect, Milk wound up giving his quiet thumbs-up to a dark horse candidate who felt out San Francisco movers and shakers throughout 1979 - Art Agnos, a former aide to Speaker Leo McCarthy and now an Assemblyman himself, who had in fact defeated Harvey Milk for said seat in the Assembly three years earlier in Milk's first and most spirited run for office. Milk had largely buried the hatchet by then, satisfied that Agnos was sufficiently progressive for his needs and more importantly could be a viable alternative to Moscone. Like in 1976, Agnos enjoyed the crucial support of Speaker McCarthy behind him as well as the crucial support of another Leo - Congressman Leo Ryan, who had helped form the Jonestown Families Association (JFA) which aggressively lobbied for investigations into the political connections of the People's Temple and, in particular, aimed to crusade against the San Francisco establishment that had allowed Jim Jones such influence. Moscone, more than anyone, symbolized the post-Jones outrage, and he was Ryan's biggest target. Milk, even if he still had harbored ill feelings towards Agnos, was canny enough to realize that institutional opposition to Moscone was about to be overwhelming among moderates and progressives alike, and picked the smart horse. The rest of the progressive Supes followed suit, and Moscone placed a distant third in the initial election before Agnos triumphed, narrowly, over Kopp in the fall election.

    The episode did set up for a new paradigm as the Eighties dawned, though; Feinstein and Kopp's retirements gave progressives a now 7-4 majority on the board and Gordon Lau was propelled to the Chairmanship of the Board. Moscone may have lost, but his impact was not going away - and Milk had fertile ground to prepare himself for bigger and better things...


    [1] This may actually be underselling how insane and lawless the SFPD and FDSF strike in 1975 was, and how spineless Mayor Alioto was in caving to them and not having the National Guard send them home off the picket line

    (I don't actually have any personal connection to SF - I've only been there once - it's just a really fascinating city, politically, in the 1970s, and as this is a US-focused TL I think it's worth exploring, mostly for my own interest, even though 1970s SF municipal politics is as small ball as it gets in a TL that's also covered Soviet and Chinese Communist Party backstabbing behind the scenes)
     
    Of Purges and Parchamites
  • Of Purges and Parchamites

    "...fundamentally, the promotion of Soviet socialism must rely on a bedrock of service to the People and the State first, to the Party second, and to the Self after; without the absolute knowledge that the State stands above the baseness of corruption and selfish impulse, the socialism envisioned by Lenin and Stalin cannot be realized. It became fashionable in some places during the latter years of the life of Comrade Brezhnev to claim that the Party has failed the People; this is imperialist, capitalist Western propaganda! It is the inverse - a great number of individuals have rather, through their baseness, immorality and lack of devotion to Marxism-Leninism and the dictatorship of the proletariat, failed the Party..."

    - Yuri Andropov before the Presidium, October 1979


    Andropov did not wait long before making it plain that there was a new sheriff in the Kremlin. First with the Politburo, then before the whole Presidium and finally in a much-publicized speech before the entirety of the Supreme Soviet, he laid out what would later become one of the three points of the "Three Arrows" of Andropov and his successors: a fierce, robust anti-corruption campaign, one that would (so as to not rock the boat in Moscow too much while there were still prominent intraparty rivals to his position as General Secretary and, starting in December of 1979, Chairmanship of the Presidium) start from the bottom up. In a secret memorandum to the Central Committee that was not declassified until 2007, Andropov outlined what everyone knew to be true but had not been discussed in polite society within the Party up to that point: that much of the Soviet Union's statistics and figures relied upon by the organs of the government were absolute nonsense. In particularly colorful language when discussing this problem with his inner circle in later weeks and months, Andropov dismissively referred to much of what was produced by the "spineless bureaus" as "vapor," "horse excrement" and, most critically, "estimations made with the pathetic eagerness and meagre skill of low-quality typist pool fellatio."

    Andropov's assessment put the contradictions of the Soviet system in words for some of its most powerful benefactors for the first time; had he not been a ruthless KGB hardliner tight with men like Ustinov and Gromyko, his time at the peak of the pyramid may well have been short. His solution, however, belied his background as a Brezhnevite and spymaster. The problem with the garbage-in, garbage-out bullshit within the system and the rank corruption it spawned was that the people responsible for it were immoral and thus driving the stagnation everyone could see but everyone had been afraid to speak of. Suddenly, the problems were not only publicly admitted and open to criticism and debate within the confines of the system but had a plain culprit: apparatchiks who had "failed the State" through personal petty corruption and thus threatened the institutions of the Party and its proletarian revolution. Andropov termed what came next as his "Morality Campaign;" it could better be described as a more modernized version of a Stalinesque purge, only without the mass slaughter (prison sentences were, however, quite stern). It was not merely targeted at officials, either; tardiness and truancy on the job new earned stiff penalties from laborers, and the new era was meant to be one of collective responsibility after the myopic, navel-gazing stagnation of the Brezhnev era.

    Historians have debated to present day exactly what Andropov's motivations in shaking the foundations of the USSR through his grand, well-publicized anti-corruption campaign were; it certainly ended the Brezhnevite approach to avoiding intraparty conflict and confrontation, and by the end of 1981 the shakeup was so complete that nearly half the Supreme Soviet had turned over even before accounting for deaths and retirements from age, while hundreds of secretaries, ministers and mid-level party officials across the various SSRs had been dismissed, arrested or quietly encouraged to step down. Like shaking rotten apples from a tree, the thirty-month campaign opened the door for thousands of younger party members to rapidly rise in the ranks and form important political connections; this rejuvenation of the body politic of the Party would represent one of the key legacies of Andropov's comparatively brief time as Chairman.

    Some historians purport that it was out of a genuine moral and personal revulsion for corruption and belief that for the Soviet Union to continue to maintain its position as a competitor to the capitalist world, it needed to deeply root out the rot that had set in under Brezhnev's broad tolerance for such behavior, and that Andropov was setting an example from the very top. A line of thinking within this school that skews particularly hagiographic in its treatment of Andropov suggests even greater motivations - that Andropov, who starting in 1981 would begin a great reformation of the Soviet economic system, needed to purge the Other scholars of the Soviet period point out, not incorrectly, that such anti-corruption purges have the beneficial side-effect of empowering those doing the purging, by eliminating potential rivals along with the genuine bad apples. Andropov was, after all, perfectly tolerant of the extravagant corruption of men such as Heydar Aliyev or Nursultan Nazarbayev, local officials from the Caucasian and Central Asian SSRs who grew in influence in the early 1980s.

    Andropov's early influence and rigidity showed flashes outside of the Soviet borders, too. Though committed to the Brezhnev Doctrine of supporting communist movements and governments at all cost - "zero retrenchment," as he put it - Andropov had little interest in committing more Soviet resources than necessary to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan between the rural Pashtun-majority Khalq faction of the Marxist government, led by General Nur Mohammed Taraki and his Prime Minister, Hafizullah Amin, a member of the more urban and cosmopolitan Parcham faction that was consolidating power and openly toying with aligning with China and perhaps also Pakistan. Andropov escalated Taraki's requests for military advisors (generally Central Asians) and kit but was reluctant to deploy full regiments or even divisions for peacekeeping; rather, in one of his early and decisive moves as Chairman, he authorized the assassination of Amin and several of his close confidants at Taraki's residence with KGB participation and then sent a large number of KGB agents to Kabul to "assist" in the "stabilization" of the regime. This meant, in effect, the complete purging of the Parcham faction from the Afghan government; the United States, deep in SALT II talks with the Soivets and despite decent relations with the increasingly Soviet-friendly Zulfikar Bhutto in Pakistan, elected to redouble its support for the Iranian junta as its bulwark in Central Asia (particularly as events in the Middle East took a grim turn that December) once it became clear that Islamabad had no desire to support mujahids from the porous border in Peshawar rising up against the Marxist regime in Kabul after Taraki's Saur Revolution had removed Bhutto's enemy Daoud Khan from power.

    Unfortunately, even with Amin and the Parchamites gone, the frequent riots in Afghanistan had not abated, but Andropov felt confident - for the time being - that the internal strife within Afghanistan could be controlled and a better course charted...
     
    The 11.17 Incident
  • The 11.17 Incident

    "...the subversives, what you say are just student protestors or activists or democrats? I think they're agitators, socialists, they're communists, they're plotting to overthrow the government. You know what is only kilometers from Seoul as well as I do. Our society has grown much richer in the last twenty years under President Park and I think maybe that's made some of our people soft, made them forget the hardness of my generation. Well, we can correct that..."

    - Cha Ji-chul, November 15, 1979


    President Park was out of the hospital after a week and sent to recuperate at the Blue House; in his absence, the Republic of Korea's government had so degenerated into factionalism that it was unclear in the immediate weeks after what exactly would be there for him to govern once he recovered fully from the gunshot wounds. His chief bodyguard and security advisor, Cha Ji-chul, had managed to get along with Chun Doo-hwan for only a matter of days before they turned on one another. Chun had turned his Security Command into its own power center with the vacuum in the place of the KCIA; for Cha, who now saw conspiracy behind every corner, this made Chun unreliable and he grated at the upstart general's naked ambition. Having also narrowly survived Kim Jae-gyu's attempt, everything was a potential danger - the Americans, even, who were thought to be behind the mass democracy protests that had rocked the country all autumn.

    As Cha and Chun feuded and spent Park's convalescence at home with his children maneuvering their own people into key positions as best they could, Army Chief of Staff Jeong Seung-hwa was more alarmed by his concern of a North Korean surprise attack and was in close contact at all times with the counterparts of American forces in Korea. Washington, for its matter, was concerned enough to maneuver one aircraft carrier into the Korean Sea and another was en route to the Sea of Japan; two carrier groups was what was broadly thought as being necessary to carry out operations against the DPRK on short notice to prevent the fall of South Korea, and back-channel messages were sent to Pyongyang through the Soviets to explain the American position and make sure the buildup was not mistaken as an offensive move. The mood was tense; it was made worse by Cha's fateful decision to mobilize his personally loyal division in Seoul on the 16th of November and attempt to seize control of the city in the middle of the night.

    Why exactly Cha made the move is still debated in Korea to this day. Park did not give the order; Chun had made a number of arrests but nobody who would threaten Cha's circle. Jeong, chief Presidential Secretary Kim Gye-won and Prime Minister Choi Kyu-hah had largely stayed above the fray, declining to involve themselves in the dispute and carry on "normal order;" besides, in Jeung's view, Seoul was already under martial law.

    The candlelight vigil for Park's recovery on the 15th was the ostensible trigger for the bloodshed that followed, when pro-democracy protestors poured out into Seoul's streets and confronted those in silent reflection. Though the police and Jeung's soldiers beat and arrested many, the spontaneous display of anti-regime activity at an event of somber support for Park was the final straw. When protests burst out in Busan in violation of martial law - somehow, ordinary Koreans could sense that the government was tottering as they had all fall - over the behavior of the army in Seoul the previous day, Cha made his move.

    The attempted autogolpe in Seoul - Cha's mobilization and attack against Chun, Jeong and Choi was alleged to have been done to prevent them from launching their own takeover, either in concert or individually, against Park - was a disaster, both for Cha and for Korea more generally. Jeong's regulars responded with force, and Army units were now shooting at each other in the streets. Cha's personally loyal elite cadres gunned down protestors in the early morning once news spread by word of mouth through the city that something was amiss, but they were unable to seize the crucial broadcasting centers in the city before Jeong did, who order the capital garrison commander, Jang Tae-wan, to immediately cut communications out of Seoul so Cha could not reach sympathetic officers elsewhere in the country, while using military radios to coordinate a response with forces elsewhere in the country (particularly on the DMZ) and to make sure John Wickham, head of US Forces in Korea at that time, was kept appraised so that Washington could be kept in the loop. Chun, for his part, was blindsided that his mighty intelligence apparatus had apparently missed this sudden coup attempt and was so convinced that Cha was coming for him that he immediately fled the city to Gimpo International Airport, where he waited on a fueled jet for seven hours until it was clear what was going on.

    Chun did not take off that day, but somebody else did - Park Chung-hee. Miscommunication between Cha and the Blue House left Park's doctors (and his children) thinking that a deeper conspiracy had just launched against him to finish the job and he was evacuated by helicopter to Gimpo where he and his family were loaded on a plane and flew off, first to Jeju Island and then to Okinawa. It was only in Okinawa that he finally learned that Cha had attempted to seize other members of the government and that he had nearly triggered a civil war in the capital. Nearly two hundred died that night, over half of them civilians; Jeong would remark in later years that ordinary Koreans seemed to have been "shot for sport" and had Cha succeeded, he would likely have killed tens of thousands of Koreans in various purges over the following months and years and likely overthrown Park himself eventually. Half a world away, the reaction in Washington was nothing short of shocked silence and worry that another key Asian ally was about to collapse.

    Cha's failure ended with a raid on his command post at the Ministry of Defense, led by special forces commander Jeong Byeong-ju. He committed suicide once he realized his position was lost. With his death he left behind a deeply divided, even more unstable country, with Choi now Acting President atop a house of cards of a military dictatorship rapidly hurtling towards its demise - and that was to say nothing of North Korea, where Kim Il-sung was stunned by the internecine bloodletting south of the DMZ and wondered if this was an opportunity to sow true chaos...
     
    The Grand Mosque Siege
  • The Grand Mosque Siege

    "...second, we demand the expulsion of all Western persons and all non-Muslims from this holy soil of Arabia; third, we demand the banning of all Western influence, including the Satanic television, from this holy soil of Arabia..."

    - Ikhwan demands broadcast from within the Grand Mosque of Mecca


    November 20, 1979 saw the first shots fired of what would later be known as the Arabian Revolution, as the fiercely militant Ikhwan (a name inspired by the House of Saud's original, 1920s insurgents that united the peninsula) seized the Grand Mosque on the first day of the year 1400 in the Islamic calendar - a portentious date, for it was said among them that the first day of the century was when the Mahdi would reveal himself to purify Islam, and the Ikhwan claimed to have such a man among them, by the name of Muhammad al-Qahtani. Phone lines were cut as the mosque was taken by surprise and hundreds were seized hostage; it would be hours before the outside world knew what happened [1]. Most of the Saudi royal family was out of the country at various conferences or delegations at that time; it fell to Prince Nayef, the Interior Minister, to deal with the incident when he already had Shia riots still rocking the eastern provinces after the death of the Ayatollah Khomeini earlier in the summer. The Ikhwan released a list of demands including the purging of Westerners from Saudi Arabia, the dismantling of the oil industry, and bringing back a near-medieval interpretation of Sunni Islam as a set of rules. It was stricter and harsher than anything the Islamists of Iran had proposed in their insurgency, but Saudi Arabia was a much more conservative country and by 1979 the Sauds nearly as unpopular with much of the Saudi street. [2]

    Complicating matters for the House of Saud was how well-financed and well-armed the Ikhwan were; attempts to approach the Mosque were met with sniper fire and death. The city was evacuated and the Grand Mosque complex invested, but what was to come next was up in the air. It emerged that the leader of the Ikhwan, Juhayman al-Otaybi, had been imprisoned earlier but cleared for release by his former teacher, the Saudi grand mufti Abd bin Baz. When the Mufti and the rest of the ulema was approached, bin Baz hesitated; deadly violence was strictly forbidden inside the Mosque and this was his former student, after all. Despite being a Wahhabi Sunni, bin Baz was also frustrated with what he considered the political persecution of clerical authority in Iran over the last two years, and was certain the CIA had assassinated Khomeini. He set aside his distaste for Shi'ism for a split moment and decided that, unlike the weak-willed Iranians, in Arabia the authority of the ulema would not be ignored. He issued a fatwa strongly forbidding the use of force to dislodge the militants.

    The situation worsened for the Saud family when they elected to bring in Iranian advisors to help them starve out or drive out the militants with nonlethal means, despite the US embassy encouraging them to use Pakistani, French or Jordanian special forces. The solution satisfied nobody; the men Iran sent were hardly the cream of the crop and seemed reluctant to risk their lives to solve the Saudis' problem, the Sunni majority saw it as caving to what they regarded as a Western puppet, and the Shia rioters intensified their anger that the Kingdom seemed to be in cahoots with the people they considered to be responsible for killing Khomeini. Riots in support of the Ikhwan suddenly broke out across the Kingdom, and had to be put down violently. The siege dragged on and on, and though the Ikhwan and their hostages began to starve to the point that many died, there seemed to be no end in sight as the world watched warily...

    [1] Not the case OTL
    [2] Hence, of course, why the OTL Grand Mosque siege led to the Sauds basically caving and implementing ever-stricter Wahhabism
     
    The Wheat and the Chaff
  • The Wheat and the Chaff

    "...1980 was unique in being the first Presidential race since both parties had largely implemented the modern primary rules system we know today and also where both had totally open tickets (Bob Dole, despite being Vice President, was but one of many front-runners and had failed to scare anyone out of the field). It was a remarkable opportunity for the great American statesmen of the late 1970s to show their talents, to make their case, to paint their vision for the future..."

    - Ted Koppel, "On 1980"


    The Democratic primary truly entered its hottest phase after Thanksgiving, when attention began to be paid more closely to the contest and it became obvious who was a real contender and who would struggle. A televised debate was held in early December, one of the first of its kind, and the consensus was that the men regarded as plainly above the pack won out - Governor Hugh Carey of New York, Governor Reubin Askew of Florida, Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, and Congressman Mo Udall, the latter having made the most game challenge to Jimmy Carter four years earlier and tapping into a vein of liberal discontent with Washington with his progressive ideas and folksy demeanor.

    The debate was largely seen as a disaster for Henry "Scoop" Jackson of Washington, who the entire fall had carried himself like an anointed nominee-in-waiting hoping his support with the party bosses and organized labor would help him evade the need for the down and dirty of campaigning for the post-Watergate Democratic electorate's vote. [1] His performance was regarded as arrogant, flippant and condescending, and largely viewed as the beginning of the death spiral his campaign would enter over the next few months after he dismissed moderator Ted Koppel's questions about Vietnam and Panama and angrily suggested that the United States was "right to hold firm, and we were wrong to relent." A calculation by the Jackson team of national security "competence" being the great desire of the electorate after what appeared to be one overseas debacle after another from the White House and the national security establishment proved horribly wrong; the ideology of "neo-conservatism" oft-attributed to him did not bear out. As for Governor Jerry Brown of California and Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts, they had a hard time breaking out in the pack and blended into the background, the latter in particular seeming a dull technocrat, while Mississippi Governor Cliff Finch and a number of other minor candidates were not even invited to the forum to participate. The debate's conclusion also ended the Hamlet-esque consideration of a run by the young Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware, only 38 and who had teased a run based on "a new generation of leadership for a new decade" but hesitated every time he came close to pulling the trigger; he in the end announced he would not run, and surprised when he eagerly endorsed Askew.

    Askew, indeed, was the surprise star of the primary season. His aura of decency, honesty and integrity reminded many of what they found most appealing about Carter four years prior when he stunned the field, but he had none of the lecturing moralism or Sunday School stiffness of the former Georgia Governor. However, his Southern folksiness belied a genuine moderation; though he personally opposed abortion, which was becoming an increasingly live issue for many "values voters" at the time, he oozed New South reformism and appointed a number of Black staffers to his campaign, very visibly. Economically, he seemed much more in the Democratic mainstream than Bentsen's conservatism or Brown's bizarre "Buddhist economics" which included opposition to national health care and support for a balanced budget amendment, to say nothing of the pseudo-hippie jargon about saving the Earth and exploring the universe, which landed like a dead fish in an environment with double-digit unemployment and inflation, a chaotic time of transition from the relative stability of the early Cold War and supply chain and energy price shocks oscillating what seemed like monthly [2]. As Iowa approached, Askew earned additional non-Texas (which was sewn up by Bentsen) endorsements across his native South; Fritz Hollings, Florida's Senators Richard Stone and Lawton Chiles, Georgia's Herman Talmadge (an endorsement he didn't particularly want), and Kentucky's Wendell Ford. The Askew machine surprised everyone and scrambled the line of thinking for many other candidates.

    In particular, it changed the approach for Carey, who had started his campaign with a splashy launch featuring Mayor Cuomo and then wrapping up the whole of the New York establishment (including Bobby Kennedy's widow, Ethel, and a number of other figures both more conservative and more liberal than he) before trying to introduce himself to a Southern electorate, surmising that two strong Southerners in Bentsen and Askew would split more traditional Southern voters and give him an opening among moderates and maybe even some liberals. His story of "the man who saved New York" was his campaign's lead theme, but as Askew built up steam heading into January and Bentsen seemed to fade as "voters love a horse that looks like it's gonna win," in Askew's own words, and with Udall sucking up attention on the left ahead of the Iowa caucuses, Carey turned his attention to what he figured would be the key battleground - the crucial, union-heavy Midwest...

    [1] Scoop is still regarded as a political hero here in my state of Washington, but everything I've gleaned about the man's politics and personality suggests he was particularly ill suited for a Democratic primary campaign at this point in history, especially with how the Ford years have likely radicalized many Democrats
    [2] Brown was, IMO, a pretty good governor for California (particularly his second act in the 2010s) but boy is it obvious why he never really took off nationally just on policy, to say nothing of his personal prickliness.
     
    1979 - Pop Culture Roundup
  • 1979 - Pop Culture Roundup

    The year's biggest financial hit, Kramer vs. Kramer, hit on a number of emerging social anxieties; the rising divorce rate among Boomers entering their early to mid thirties, the precarious economic position of even many affluent, well-educated upper middle-class couples, and the emerging political and social power of women. Starring Dustin Hoffman and Kate Jackson, the film was a financial hit and wound up winning a slew of Oscars, and jumpstarted Jackson's own career in film rather than television. Overall in film (and to a lesser extent, television) the year was a strange time of transition and myopia. Audiences wanted escapism during lean economic times (already the worst since the Depression) but something that also felt real to their experiences. It was for this reason, and for its ballooning budget in an inflationary environment, that the James Bond film Moonraker was seen as a substantial disappointment both at the box office and in its critical reception (and mocked as one of a number of Star Wars retreads in the late 1970s and early 1980s) and wound up being the final appearance in the strange, very 1970s turn as the titular spy by Roger Moore.

    In the music world, the biggest event was certainly Elvis Presley's emergence from drug rehabilitation and his subsequent first album since going clean and firing his old management team, titled simply Elvis. Regarded as an unusually somber piece of art, experimenting with gospel music, newspapers made a play on words in declaring "The Return of the King" (a reference to the popular Lord of the Rings series), but it was only a modest financial success. Regardless, it would mark the important third act of Presley's long, impactful career in pop music.

    In sports, it was an age of dynasties. The most egregiously dominant squad were the Montreal Canadiens in their defeat of the New York Rangers in the Stanley Cup Finals 4-1 to win their fourth consecutive championship; coming close were the Seattle Supersonics, who won a second straight NBA Finals (of three) by winning their rematch with the Washington Bullets from the year before, once again in the seventh game. It was a tremendous year for American basketball more generally; in the most-watched NCAA tournament ever, largely credited with launching the "March Madness" phenomenon, Indiana State and their star Larry Bird defeated Magic Johnson and the Michigan State Spartans; widely regarded as two of the best young prospects in the history of the sport, the two would face off repeatedly in the 1980s, with Johnson being drafted first overall that summer by the Chicago Bulls. In baseball, the Baltimore Orioles avenged their Game 7 loss in the 1971 World Series eight years later to the same opponent, Pittsburgh, this team winning in Game 7 extra innings in what is regarded as one of the best Series in the history of the game.

    European soccer delivered a shocking final as Nottingham Forest upended Austria Wien in the Munich to deliver England a third consecutive European Cup but also one of the most surprising champions yet, as Forest was certainly no major squad. A three-peat was, however, not in the offing for the Dallas Cowboys in the 1979-80 NFL season; despite posting an NFL-best 15-1 record and mauling most of the competition all year, they were shockingly upset as 13.5-point favorites the following January in Super Bowl XIV in a matchup of No.1 seeds (only the second ever in a Super Bowl but second in three seasons) by Dan Fouts and the San Diego Chargers, losing 33-10 in a remarkable beat-down. For collegiate fans, 1979 offered a classic; three undefeated teams headed into January, with the # 1 USC Trojans and # 2 Ohio State Buckeyes meeting in a famous Rose Bowl; Ohio State won on a late field goal, 27-24, defeating the Trojans and their Heisman-winning running back Charles White in a thriller to secure coach Earle Bruce a consensus national championship and helping him get out from under the long shadow of the controversial Woody Hayes firing. The third undefeated squad of '79, Alabama, was left frustrated again; undefeated and ranked No. 2, but empty-handed once more for the aging Paul "Bear" Bryant, who clearly wanted a legacy "one for the thumb" fifth national championship at the end of his long and storied career to tie him with the aforementioned Hayes but was empty-handed once more, and this time couldn't even blame losing heads-up to the Number 1 team like the conclusion to 1978.
     
    New Year, New Decade, New Right
  • New Year, New Decade, New Right

    "...Ron was the front-runner, and a front-runner ought to act like a front-runner. That means you act like you know you're in charge, that you know you deserve the nomination, like you know you're going to be President..."

    - John Sears, Reagan campaign manager, 1980 - quoted for "Rendezvous with Destiny"


    The strategy developed by Reagan's 1976 campaign manager, brought back for an encore by the former Governor and titan of the conservative cause, was simple: Reagan was the front-runner by right thanks to his performance against the incumbent Ford, and he ought to behave accordingly. In Sears' view, this did not mean downplaying what made him a celebrity to the New Right - it meant merely staying "above the fray," seeking not to indulge the petty squabbles bubbling into view in the rest of the primary campaign and commanding "authority and respect" on the right flank of the party by embracing the role of an elder statesman who could have afforded to wait until October to enter the race because the conservative lane was his for the taking. Getting into the scrum was beneath Reagan and unbecoming of the heir apparent to the Republican mantle. Or so the thinking at Reagan headquarters in D.C. went.

    The problem with Sears strategy, however, was that 1976 was a polarized primary, a binary choice between the affable moderation of Ford and the bold, transformative conservative insurgency of Reagan. 1980 offered no such dual option, even if the GOP's factions had not much changed. The base had soured on Ford in the intervening years, as had much of the country; Ford's complete disconnect from and disavowal of many of those party organs as he shrugged his way into lame-duck status created a smorgasbord of donors, activists, and operatives ripe for the taking. RNC Chairman Bill Brock had steered much of the "establishment" in the direction of Vice President Dole or Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker; that those two were seen as the premier moderate choices (Illinois' John Anderson regarded as a vanity campaign) said much of the appetite of primary voters. But the Right was splintered, too, and not to Reagan's advantage. Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was running on a platform of being the coldest Cold Warrior of them all, explicitly rejecting Fordism to such an extent that even close allies of his such as Chief of Staff Cheney had to cringe and quietly disavow his fiery rhetoric. Congressman Phil Crane, with the help of a savvy young pollster named Art Finkelstein, had leveraged his combativeness and role in fighting the Equal Rights Amendment into positive comments from those such as Anita Bryant and Phyllis Schlafly.

    But most ominous for Reagan was another swaggering, former Governor from the West with a cowboy image - John Connally of Texas, who had plucked up the talented Clifton White (a rare righty who had stuck with Ford in '76 and been skeptical of a Reagan run ahead of what promised to be a tough election) and tapped into a deep network of Texas donors, former Southern Democrats who had backed Nixon in 1972 but been enticed by Carter's regional appeal, and so-called "fence-sitters," an amorphous group of primary voters put off by the stridency of the Rumsfelds and Cranes of the primary but skeptical of Dole's tightness with a sinking White House that was, in White's terms, "as popular as syphilis." Connally having survived the Kennedy assassination, having fought off what he had convincingly portrayed as a politically-motivated indictment (a popular theme with GOP primary voters still sour over Watergate) and being on the leading edge of the abandonment of the Democratic Party by Southern whites made him potent. Reagan expressed such concerns privately to Sears, especially after learning with alarm that Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina was endorsing the Texan turning his state's network over to Connally ahead of the primary there shortly after New Hampshire; unlike his braintrust back in California, Sears waved Reagan off, but promised that all resources would be focused on New Hampshire and expectations played down in Iowa, where Dole and Connally were expected to do well (the former being from a demographically similar state to Kansas and all)...
     
    The Return of the Gandhis
  • The Return of the Gandhis

    "...the 1980 landslide suggested nothing short of a total triumph and vindication, and for those who had worked so tirelessly in opposition during the Emergency, it was possibly the most deflating event of their lifetimes, for thousands ending their interest in electoral and activist politics for good..."

    - "The Gandhi Dynasty: India on the Brink"


    The Janata government formed in 1977 was unstable and prone to infighting; that was even before the massive price shocks of 1978 and 1979 plunged the Indian economy into its worst recession since Partition. Heading into the January polls, Charan Singh's majority was obviously threatened by a resurgent Congress led by the powerful Gandhi family; even then, observers were shocked at the totality of the losses.

    Congress gained 249 seats for a total of 403, or nearly four-fifths of the total seats in the Lok Sabha. The Janata Party broke in half, splitting its votes, and the opposition was effectively left a tiny rump of religious and localist parties. Indeed, the second-biggest party in New Delhi now was the Communist Party (Marxist), despite only having 32 seats. Organized opposition to Indira Gandhi - back in her old office and quickly acting as if the chaotic Janata interregnum had never happened - was effectively informal and intraparty, though that would only be for the time being, too.

    The thumping victory placed her son Sanjay in a key role as an eminence grise and clear successor; over the next months, Sanjay purged state party officials to appoint a network of friends, proteges and cronies in various local bureaucracies, courts, police divisions and state party organizing committees. His consolidation was swift; by the end of 1980, he personally controlled the biggest state affiliates of Congress as well as close to half of the Congress majority in the Lok Sabha and much of the Indian security and legal establishment and his mother was said to effectively be in a position of pseudo-retirement or figurehead-status as her son aggressively purged their intraparty enemies behind the scenes...
     
    Whoops!
  • Whoops!

    "...it is highly unlikely that the forces within the Mosque have survived this long without food or water; we breach the building today, and when we enter we'll find only bodies and the emaciated..."

    - Saudi intelligence assessment prior to entry of Grand Mosque


    The Saudi forces that stormed the Grand Mosque had assumed, for whatever reason, that after the weeks and weeks of being stuck inside the building, and with hostages to feed too, that the Ikhwan would have withered almost entirely. They weren't necessarily wrong, but the stragglers within had more strength than perhaps the Saudis had expected. Saudi debriefs claimed that it was the Ikhwan who shot first inside the venerated halls; the Arab street strongly doubted that, and suddenly the Saudi royal family - which openly hobnobbed with Western leaders and had been gauche in its allowances for foreign influence counter to the conservative Wahhabi school of Sunnism practiced in the Kingdom - had added the desecration of the Grand Mosque with violence contra to the explicit commands of the ulama to its long list of sins.

    King Khalid mostly handwaved off concerns of heavy-handedness and displayed more eagerness to return to his policy of reaping the 1970s oil windfall by using it for developing the Saudi state economy than actually address the sociocultural issues that had made so many ripe for radicalization in the first place. Protests erupted across the Arab world but particularly inside Saudi Arabia itself, where a fierce crackdown by the police and special forces - led by princes rival to Khalid - incited even fiercer reaction in turn; the "martyrs of the Mosque" became figures of admiration and inspiration to hundreds if not thousands among the booming ranks of young and bored men with a chip on their shoulder in the early 1980s Middle East...
     
    Dawn in Seoul?
  • Dawn in Seoul?
    "...I, Park Chung-hee, hereby resigned the office of the Presidency of South Korea, effective immediately..."

    - Park Chung-hee's resignation letter

    Within hours of broadcasting via television and radio from Okinawa his resignation from the Presidency of South Korea, Park was on a plane to Taiwan; he would live the rest of his life in exile on a small, modest property southwest of Taipei on the coast, before dying of colon cancer in 1988. His family would not return to Korea until after his death, and their attempts to influence Korean politics both from exile and upon their non-triumphant re-arrival are controversial to this day. In 1992, it was revealed through leaked cables that the Ford administration had pressured Park to resign, fearing that his returning to South Korea during the mass protests of 1979-80 and in the aftermath of Cha's coup attempt would plunge the country into civil war. For once, the stubborn, aggressive Park listened to reason, relenting once he realized that without American guns there was no hope of him reasserting himself into the Blue House.

    For new President Choi Kyu-hah, it was a relief; constitutionally there was no question he was now in charge. But the feelings in Seoul were still tense. Park had a number of loyalists who were still outraged at his toppling, especially after he had survived an assassination attempt. Chun, head of the intelligence apparatus and with a deep clique of military men at his back, had been humiliated by his "idling plane" incident and had his own ambitions for power. So Choi relied heavily on Jeong Seung-hwa, who became the true power in the new regime. Jeong was amenable to an "orderly transition" to some semblance of democracy, unlike budding autocrats such as Chun, but wanted to slow-walk it. As such, the 1980 Korean presidential election for the last four years of Park's term won in 1978 were still held by the National Council, and protesters and students were skeptical that the 1984 polls would be any more open. Choi's Presidency was off to an inauspicious start.
     
    1980 Iowa Caucuses
  • 1980 Iowa Caucuses
    "...the candidates have made their cases, entered the race, sized each other up... consider this something of the starting line..."

    - Ted Koppel, ABC


    A caucus is, by its very nature, an unpredictable and volatile thing. Caucus-goers gather in small rooms or high school gymnasiums and spend hours trying to persuade one another to join a certain candidate, and that eventually produces results from which delegates are allocated. Iowa, more than any other state, takes great pride in its caucuses and its ability to sort real contenders from also-rans; 1980, for both parties, proved how fickle a thing caucuses can really be.

    Republican front-runners like Ronald Reagan or John Connally had largely eschewed Iowa, for one particular reason - Vice President Bob Dole, a native of nearby and demographically-similar Kansas, had gone all-in on the state, viewing it as the centerpiece of his plan to retake momentum and initiative and re-orient the campaign around one as him as Ford's inevitable successor. Phil Crane, from neighboring Illinois, had also made the caucuses his focus, both due to proximity for his volunteers (including coveted Eagle Forum activists) but also due to its numerous college campuses, seeking to forge himself as the candidate of choice for Young Americans for Freedom, a President of the future rather than a figure of the past, which was how he portrayed his five chief opponents. John Anderson, the most moderate candidate, made a play as a Midwestern candidate, as did Donald Rumsfeld. Three Illinoisans on the offing presented Iowans with three candidates who were always nearby and could campaign there whenever they so chose.

    Democrats had a similarly muddled picture. Jimmy Carter four years earlier and George McGovern four before that had shown the importance of caucuses in the navigation of the new primary system designed after the unhappy and contentious 1968; Mo Udall practically camped out in Iowa, hoping to ride the same wave of young, progressive and anti-establishment votes that had earned the two previous Democratic nominees the ring and that had also powered Eugene McCarthy's insurgent campaign. Reuben Askew, though focusing on mopping up the South, made a late play for the Iowa caucuses, but found his staffing on the ground insufficient compared to bigger, better-heeled campaigns that had a hard time converting their resources into the kind of on-the-ground enthusiasm that powered caucuses - campaigns such as those of Lloyd Bentsen, Scoop Jackson or Jerry Brown.

    The caucus results rolled in and everybody found something to hate. On the Democratic side, three candidates practically tied, all leaving Iowa with an identical 22% of the vote - Udall, who came in first, Hugh Carey, in second, and Askew, in third. The rest of the pack failed to even break 10%, with a clog of candidates winning between 7-9%, and Scoop Jackson surprisingly finishing last, behind even gadflies like Cliff Finch. It was a humiliation for the eminence grise of Senate defense policy and Jackson dropped out of the race the next day - and endorsed Carey, whose close finish ahead of the surging Askew and a hair behind the populist Udall introduced his name to millions of potential voters for the first time. Udall failed to get the dominating result he needed to vault him into frontrunner status and Askew's momentum was badly blunted.

    For the Republicans, meanwhile, the results were somewhat useless - Dole came in first with 28%, Crane in second with 24%, and Connally in third with 17% despite spending little time in the state. Reagan, who had similarly barely campaigned there and chosen to coast on his "above the fray" frontrunner image, panicked with his fourth-place finish and the victory laps of both Crane and Connally declaring themselves as the "future of the conservative movement" - in the four years between his insurgent challenge to Ford and now, he had gone from conservative icon to has-been in a blink, or at least he would if he did not quickly do something to resuscitate the campaign. The headlines out of Iowa were a disaster for Reagan, and unfriendly personalities both in the media and other wings of the GOP gleefully piled on, smelling blood, and hoping that they had sunk "that doddering old B-list actor" for good. But it was hard for Dole to take much of a breather after somehow placing first; he was, for better or worse, now officially the candidate of continuing to carry the flag for the unpopular Ford administration, and even if Reagan was badly wounded, Crane and Connally lurked, sensing his clear weakness. Even worse, Howard Baker and John Anderson both declined to drop out after Iowa, thus denying Dole the "establishment" lane and its considerable financial resources entirely to himself.

    For Democrats, Maine's caucuses lurked ahead, while Republicans would compete in Puerto Rico and Alaska before the critical bipartisan New Hampshire contest on February 26th...
     
    The Last Journey on a Remarkable Road
  • The Last Journey on a Remarkable Road
    "...so I see this not as a resignation but a recognition, of my own age and longevity in public office, and an opportunity for exploring new avenues of public service, what I plan to be the last but perhaps greatest journey on this remarkable road..."

    - James Callaghan resignation speech, February 1st, 1980

    It had been considered an inevitability that Callaghan - despite pulling a rabbit out of a hat in the 1978 snap elections and returning Labour to a surpise majority against Margaret Thatcher's brief and polarizing leadership - would resign well in advance of the next elections, due no later than 1983, to give his preferred successor, Foreign Secretary and former Chancellor of the Exchequer Denis Healey, a chance to build his own base of support at Number 10. The Winter of Discontent that erupted shortly after the 1978 polls and the increasingly severe recession throughout 1979 propelled the newly popular Tories under Willie Whitelaw to a remarkable polling lead, at one point as much as 30% [1], and led to a number of questions swirling about whether Callaghan was capable of leading the deeply divided British left any longer. Callaghan was said to have realized that his time was at an end when he fumbled a counter against Whitelaw during the PMQs, earning jeers even from his own bench when he tepidly denounced the Conservative leader as "Thatcher, but in pants," and later famously took "a walk in the snow" [2] the next night in which determined that it was time to call it a career, as the only man to ever serve in all four Great Offices of State.

    A leadership election was thus set for early March, and it erupted into chaos within days of Callaghan's announced retirement pending the election of his successor. It was, particularly, a media circus around candidates of the left. Michael Foot, the champion of the left wing of Labour in 1976, elected not to run, opening the door for an even more strident figure to seize the mantle - Tony Benn. "Benn's Hour?" asked the Guardian, as the left of the party rapidly consolidated around him. Enthusiasm for Healey even on the Labour Right seemed minimal, despite steady leadership at the Foreign Office since the last election; he reminded many too much of Callaghan, his patron. Such was the hesitancy that the Chancellor, David Owen, leapt into the fray, alongside EEC Chair Roy Jenkins, furthering splintering the anti-Bennite coalition. The day Jenkins announced he would again seek leadership, the London Stock Exchange declined by nearly 4%, one of its largest single-day declines in history, for it seemed like Benn was on the verge of waltzing to Number 10. So high were concerns around that possibility that some Labour MPs debated splitting off and entering a coalition government with Britain if for no reason than to make sure NATO was maintained (or, in more polemic language, "prevent us becoming the Soviet Union's largest naval and air base," as the Daily Mail infamously editorialized). The chances of "Commissar Benn," as Ted Heath had once nicknamed him, taking over the British government seemed not just live but likely.

    Two factors complicated Benn's glide path to leadership and the political (and economic) earthquake it would have triggered. The first was a speech he gave which was viewed as his first major introduction to the British public as putative PM-in-waiting; despite presenting some popular ideas, such as diminishing the immediate power of the Prime Minister's office and introducing more bottom-up democracy to not just internal Labour elections but Britain generally, he soon pivoted to promising nationalizations of industry, the abolition of the Lords, the withdrawal from the EEC, unilateralism and the reunification of Ireland under Dublin. Even left-sympathetic tabloids joined Britain's conservative and centrist outlets in slamming the speech; while the Economist was measured in its supposition that "a Benn Premiership would immediately lead to economic catastrophe and diplomatic calamity, followed by Labour's internal divide becoming an impassable breach; one of Britain's two great postwar parties would effectively collapse, likely permanently," the Mail, meanwhile, more aggressively described the speech as "written for Andropov to deliver on May Day, but was lost by the same Royal Mail that Comrade Benn ran into the ground." The second event was related directly to the first: Owen waffled on whether he should continue to run as he prepared what he anticipated would be his final budget, and many "fence-sitters" moved to Healey, seen as still being the strongest institutionalist [3] and the likeliest man to defeat Benn head to head, and as some soft leftists panicked that Benn was so strident that the party was headed for electoral annihilation by the quietly competent Whitelaw, Michael Foot persuaded his idiosyncratic but charismatic friend, Secretary of State for the Environment Peter Shore, to make a bid for the ring himself...

    [1] Because it wouldn't be British hypothetical election polls if the numbers weren't utterly absurd
    [2] Lifted from the verbiage around Trudeau's decision to resign
    [3] Owen being Chancellor during such a severe recession is a knock on him, rather than a boon
     
    Closing Crises
  • Closing Crises

    Since nearly the moment he was inaugurated for a full term, Ford's Presidency had seemed to be beset by ever-mounting foreign policy conundrums that mushroomed into full-blown crises; the perception of him on international affairs both domestically and abroad was one of an affable dolt, flailing in the wind as problems beyond his ability to address compounded without end. This was, of course, an unfair estimation; Ford's core national security triad of Secretary of State Bush, CIA Director Carlucci and National Security Advisor Scowcroft had managed to build a terrific working group, especially after Rumsfeld's "resignation" had removed one of the major roadblocks to their initiatives. They had worked hand-in-hand with Great Britain to help transition an end to white rule in Rhodesia peacefully, secured the Rose Garden Agreement between Egypt and Israel to normalize relations, peeled Somalia out of the pro-Soviet bloc, helped Iran (despite all its lingering and simmering problems) avoid plunging into all-out civil war between the regime and both its Islamist and communist opponents, and continued the policy of détente with the East, including improving relations with post-Ceaucescu Romania and nudging NATO allies to improve trade and cultural ties with Yugoslavia. The problem, of course, was that a lot of these successes were quiet ones, or qualified (the West, to say the least, was alarmed in March of 1980 when Joshua Nkomo and most of his ZAPU group in Rhodesia entered Abel Muzorewa's coalition in the Bulawayo Agreement, steering the government in a more socialistic, pro-Soviet direction), and that the failures - Panama and the rest of Latin America in particular - burned much more loudly.

    So it was perhaps only fitting that a term defined by foreign and economic chaos that sprung up like a hideous game of political whack-a-mole would in its closing year face more. The first was in the continuing drama in the Korean Peninsula; Ford and Bush had been quietly concerned by the attempted assassination on Park, primarily out of worry that the North Koreans may launch an attack to take advantage of the near-coup in Seoul that had driven Park into Taiwanese exile. Fear of instability erupted further in mid-February, when the Hanahoe Revolt began - cadres loyal to General Chun Doo-hwan and henchman such as Roh Tae-woo organized attacks on key points of infrastructure around the country to attempt to seize power and push out the successor regime, mere months after Cha Ji-chul and his "special unit" had attempted the same. This fighting was much bloodier, killing upwards of 2,000 people - half of them civilian - and occurring in tandem with mass protests throughout the country against violence and military dictatorship. In this effort, the US eventually had to intervene, and despite the worst predictions of many Korean activists, they chose to put down the rebels. Chun fled to Okinawa much as Park had and them on to Hong Kong then Singapore; Roh was arrested and imprisoned for life. The Hanahoe Revolt was the last major military threat to the Choi-Jeung regime, which was able to hold controversial elections in late March for the balance of Park's term, through 1984, when the government tacitly promised they would hold some sort of open elections under some type of modified franchise while still leaving the autocratic Yushin Constitution in place. Democracy activists were not convinced, to say the least; but both Ford and Bush breathed another sigh of relief that the erratic and unpredictable DPRK had not launched across the demilitarized zone once again as South Korea threatened to consume itself in violence.

    That Korea did not go hot came as a relief, because Saudi Arabia did. Sympathizers of the Mosque Siege and those outraged by its "blasphemous" and desecratory conclusion formed a terrorist group named al-Ikhwan al-Islam, drawing from the name of the House of Saud's famed paramilitary that had helped them secure the whole of Arabia for themselves, and thus making an implication with their name quite plain: that they, rather than the decadent royals, were now the true heirs to the legacy of the original Ikhwan. The Ikhwan staged frequent raids and bombings starting in February, most spectacularly burning farms around Ha'il and blowing up two pipelines in the Eastern Province while shooting Shia protestors in those regions, leading to Saudi Shias to arm themselves and form their own paramilitaries out of fear of being attacked by the violent Ikhwan. The destruction of the two pipelines made the threat of severe attacks on global petroleum infrastructure loom again, much as it had after the mass attacks in Venezuela just seven months prior, and oil, shipping and insurance costs worldwide spiked again, once more compounding the price and supply crisis now in its third year and driving inflation even higher, though oil prices would drop sharply after Ford announced that the United States would station a carrier group in the Persian Gulf in partnership with Iran and Great Britain to help defend oil tankers from being attacked, which seemed the next inevitable step. Inside Arabia, though, such moves just seemed to prove that the House of Saud was in a cabal with the decadent West; clerics, particularly of the very conservative Wahhabi school, began preaching against them for the first time. King Khalid's response in overriding [1] his family members who suggested a conservative turn to mollify the increasingly radical social elements and arresting dissident clerics seemed only to prove that point, and the Arab street turned increasingly restive - and Saudi Arabia's neighbors increasingly attentive...

    [1] Khalid was about as Western in his lifestyle and tastes as the Jordanian monarchy at this time; the conservative turn across the Middle East had not quite happened yet, even if it was starting
     
    Healy's Hour
  • Healy's Hour

    "...with the best of my ability, I pledge every last fiber of my being to this country I love so very dearly. It has been the duty and privilege of my life to serve Britain, and God willing, that is what I will be remembered for..."

    - Denis Healy, speech at 10 Downing Street upon winning 1980 Labour leadership election


    The decision by David Owen in the days before the MPs would elect their next leader to drop out of the race and endorse his once-rival (in Cabinet and for leadership) Healy seemed to cement the final result. For years later, Bennites would curse the moderate Chancellor's decision to drop out, and considered it a corrupt bargain intended to keep the Labour Right's vice-grip on the party in place. Of course, that was a dramatic reaction, even with emotions running high, for the aftermath told a very different story.

    Shore and Benn predictably split the left without Owen in the race, and Jenkins' particular brand of Europhilic centrism appealed just as little to Parliamentary Labour and activists alike as had been foreseen by most commentators; indeed, Jenkins was the first major candidate eliminated, on the second ballot. Healy would eventually defeat Shore on the fifth ballot, considerably more rounds than expected, and with that the Callaghan era was over on March 4, 1980 when Queen Elizabeth invited Healy to Buckingham Palace to kiss hands and form a government in her name. Upon his return to Downing Street, Healy engaged in what later became known as "the Ides of March" - the largest turnover of a sitting Cabinet by an incumbent government in decades.

    Owen's time at the Exchequer would prove to be quite brief, less than two years, as he returned to the Foreign Office - a job he had, at any rate, preferred. Shore, meanwhile, was named Chancellor, the first sign that Healy understood the energy and direction of the party but where Shore's idiosyncratic foreign policy views would do little damage. It was a move meant to mollify the left of Labour while not alienating the right - and it worked. Foot, for his part, was made Home Secretary, while Benn exited Cabinet entirely. Roy Hattersley received the Defence portfolio, Neil Kinnock the Education Ministry, Bill Rodgers to Health, and Arthur Davidson the role of Chief Whip. The new Cabinet, despite Healy sitting at Downing Street, had definitively shifted to the left, which would soon become clear when Shore would deliver his first budget speech in late April, tossing aside much of the work Owen had done on his own and unveiling a decidedly socially democratic project which the Daily Mail mocked as "the budget speech delivered by Chancellor of the Exchequer Olof Palme." Healy's first test as Prime Minister had arrived, and the turn leftwards of Labour while in government from the Callaghan years and with the shadow of the Winter of Discontent still hanging over the party would come to define his Premiership...
     
    1980 New Hampshire Primary
  • 1980 New Hampshire Primary

    New Hampshire's snowy, granite hills and bucolic small New England townships would, a month after the inconclusive Iowa caucuses did little to clear up the picture for either party, reveal themselves a major proving ground in what was already becoming an acrimonious and acidic primary on the Republican side. For the incumbent GOP, all guns turned on Dole, who had surprised with his strong Iowa finish, claimed that he had "the Big Mo" and declared, in a turn of phrase he would later admit to regret, "we shall continue the good work of the Ford administration into the Eighties!" BLS numbers just a few days before voters went to the polls in New Hampshire announced that unemployment had finally, two years after the Panama Crisis, breached the psychologically and politically significant mark of 10% [1] and the administration's policy response was thrown into question from both left and right. The unemployment and inflation prints may not have directly impacted Dole's dire performance on the ground in a much less demographically and geographically friendly state, but they certainly did not help. Reagan's campaign was particularly aggressive, blanketing the Granite State with ads decrying "a bipartisan, big-government legacy of failure," suggesting that Reagan would break a two-party establishment that had thrust the country into this crisis; Connally, sensing weakness on Reagan's part with such a hard heel turn away from his sunny, "above the fray" strategy from before, chose a different line of attack, running on his record as a Texas Governor and promising "a New Start from a son of the New South." The "New Start" message was a number of things - it sounded hopeful, it cleanly broke with the Nixon-Ford legacy (of which Connally was a small part), and it could be credibly marketed as a conservative idea, since it was amicably vague. The surprise hit of Iowa, Crane, had no such luck in New Hampshire; despite his right-wing bona fides in New England's most famously rock-ribbed Republican state, his social conservative warrior persona was a poor fit for the old-line Yankee attitudes of the state's GOP base and an ad he cut with Phyllis Schlafly endorsing him wound up damaging him more with soft-libertarian voters than it would boost him with conservatives who regarded the big three candidates as more credible Presidential candidates. Nor was New Hampshire friendly to the race's moderates; Anderson's result in Iowa had been so puny that his niche had effectively collapsed by the time New Hampshire rolled around, even if he couldn't see it yet, and Baker seemed to be "running for '84" with his rhetoric, which served him well in picking up a slew of delegates in the relatively uncontested Vermont and Massachusetts contests the following week but failed to make many headlines with the remarkable turnaround in the Granite State.

    In the end, New Hampshire would prove to be what rescued Reagan's campaign from humiliating also-ran status and what would surely have been a death blow to his gravitas as Connally zeroed in on South Carolina on March 8 and three other big, delegate-rich Southern states three days later. Reagan placed first in New Hampshire with 34% of the vote, hardly a dominating result but well ahead of Connally, who placed second at 25% with Dole lagging well behind at 19% and the rest of the big candidates taking smaller figures in the single to low-double digits. "From Fourth to First!" declared the Nashua Telegraph [2], and Reagan campaign headquarters popped plenty of champagne that night as their candidate barreled towards a showpiece showdown in South Carolina with Connally and would place an honorable second in Massachusetts and Vermont in the interim, earning nearly half the delegates in each behind Baker. New Hampshire defined the race as a three-way affair, with Dole the weakest despite his substantial establishment support (Baker, Anderson and Crane would be afterthoughts from here on out).

    For the Democrats, New Hampshire was notable for other reasons - the complete and utter humiliation of Governor Dukakis of next door Massachusetts, who had bet the house on the Granite State but placed fourth behind the big three of Hugh Carey, who came narrowly in first with 25%, then Reuben Askew at 22%, then Mo Udall at 19%, whose campaign now seemed to be on life support after he was unable to leverage his squeaker win in Iowa into any semblance of momentum, thanks in large part to an uncoordinated, activist-driven campaign that seemed undisciplined and aloof, frustrating even the famously amiable Udall. Dukakis, barely breaching 10%, dropped out after winning the subsequent Massachusetts primary by a disappointingly narrow margin but declined to endorse any of his opponents quite yet, suggesting he would withhold his endorsement to leverage his influence (and the respectable haul of delegates he had out of populous Massachusetts). The race seemed to have a clear character just like after Iowa, though; Askew as the candidate of the South (both Udall and Carey largely eschewed campaigning south of the Mason-Dixon and focused instead on a substantial prize of delegates in Washington, Oklahoma, Illinois and the big kahuna at the end of March, New York) and the other two seeking to seize the rest of the country as best they could to arrest his likely domination of the former Confederacy ahead of what could in fact, mathematically, be a contested convention for the first time in decades...

    [1] Remember, the late 1970s crisis has been worse with Panama creating a supply shock in effectively all industries and the Miller Fed is already pursuing what we know IOTL as "Volckerism" with aggressive rate hikes; so unemployment numbers we would not see until late 1981/early 1982 IOTL are here starting to appear eighteen months early.
    [2] The sponsor of OTL's "I'm paying for this microphone!" debate moment, which I've never understood quite why it made such an impact to be quite honest
     
    Post-Deregulation Airline Merger Mania - Part One
  • Post-Deregulation Airline Merger Mania - Part One

    The passage of the Kennedy-Cannon Act in 1977 had entirely deregulated the airline industry and by early 1980 abolished the Civilian Aeronautics Bureau for good, and with this move came an explosion of mergers, bankruptcies and rebalancing within the previously tightly-controlled industry. A rush to consolidate routes and networks was paired with other airlines following the example of Delta's Atlanta hub or United's Chicago operation after seeing the tremendous success both had in the hub-and-spoke model.

    The first major shoe to drop was in 1978, when Continental and Western announced their merger as "Continental-Western," a name chosen after CA's eccentric chairman Bob Six won a coin toss (and a name that would last only until 1983, when the "Wester" was dropped for good). The new Continental, through this merger, was able to dramatically consolidate its operations at their Los Angeles headquarters, becoming the largest carrier at LAX by a good amount, and also handed it Western's hubs at Salt Lake City and Denver. In the long term, these two hubs would serve more as competition for one another than, complements, and by 1990 Continental had dramatically reduced their presence at SLC in favor of constructing another fortress hub at Denver. The move in one fell swoop would make CA the dominant carrier west of the Rockies and the chief competitor for American and TWA in the Plains states.

    The next major merger was that in 1979 which produced Republic Airlines, cobbling together North Central and Southern to form a major three-hub network out of Minneapolis, Detroit and Memphis. Republic's next goal was to become the biggest airline in the United States by destinations by adding Hughes Airwest, a flailing West Coast airline, to its portfolio, but in early 1980 they were beaten to the punch by Trans World Airlines, which outside of a small operation in Portland had never had a substantial Western presence and under new management wanted to beef up its small trans-Pacific offerings, which until then had included only Taipei by way of Honolulu. Hughes Airwest at least gave them a large foothold on the West Coast and allowed Trans World to do what they really wanted - go head-to-head with Pan Am in San Francisco (and to a lesser extent the increasingly competitive LAX) now that routes were not protected for the Flying Blue Meatball. The Airwest acquisition would be the first of three major mergers involving TWA in the 1980s during a major and delicate strategic rebalancing that would position it for its run in the 1990s as America's dominant domestic and international carrier.

    Nobody could have expected the earthquakes that were to follow, however, which made the Continental, Republic and TWA moves look like a mere appetizer. The top dog for years in US air travel had been Pan Am, which had operated an almost exclusively international route network and in the early Jet Age emerged as a towering symbol of American prestige and soft power. The Pan Am of 1980 was a different animal; its heavy bet on the 747 right before the 1973 oil crisis had looked like a mistake in hindsight, it no longer enjoyed exclusive rights in many overseas markets and it had no real domestic feeder system to speak of outside of line-to-line routes between hubs in JFK, Miami and SFO. That was why securing a domestic partner to absorb became an odyssey for Pan Am board members in the late 1970s once deregulation made it a necessity for survival; CEO William Seawell was determined to get it done before he retired. Pan Am had a number of smaller airlines it was interested in gobbling up: Northwest Orient, which was a dominant trans-Pacific carrier but would not solve the domestic issue, National out of Miami which would boost Pan Am's position in that market, and the unlikeliest but most intriguing option of Eastern, which would largely duplicate an existing route network but do so in a way that provided at least a little more feed.

    Pan Am's interest in Northwest declined once National and Eastern both began suffering from labor and financial strife; but the bid for National became a debacle, with the price bidding up and up as other airlines both wanted the Florida carrier's routes for themselves and to kneecap Pan Am. Seawell was approached secretly by Frank Borman, the head of Eastern, with an offer - a merger with Eastern, which despite being profitable in 1977 and 1978 was now entering a period of turmoil again and was being eyed by other airlines. An Eastern-Pan Am merger would interline the two airlines' major operations in JFK and Miami and create a near-fortress hub in the latter, while giving Delta considerably more competition in Atlanta (which was envisioned as a major domestic feeder hub) and then giving the new airline the size and heft to rapidly expand a Midwestern hub at either O'Hare or elsewhere for additional domestic routes. Borman would take over for Seawell as CEO once the merger was complete and the new company would be better positioned to restructure debts accrued by both in the 70s and ward off the dangerous new deregulated world.

    Seawell agreed, in private, and quietly declined to meet the latest bid for National in the bidding war - which went to United. As excited as United executives were at their new foothold in the Southeast, mere weeks later Seawell and Borman held a press conference at the Fontainebleu in Miami to announce the combination of two of America's biggest airline brands, Pan American World Airways and Eastern Air Lines, into a single "super-airline" that would continue to be headquartered in New York but with its main operating base, crew training facilities and largest hub at Miami. The news made United's bid for National effectively worthless near overnight, with Miami about to crowd the smaller airline out, but the promissory note was paid and United would expend millions in legal fees over the next few years trying to back out of its obligation to buy the rapidly-failing airline. The first big debacle of the deregulation era had occurred...
     
    The Grind Goes On: The March 1980 Presidential Primaries
  • The Grid Goes On: The March 1980 Presidential Primaries

    The month of March would prove a critical one in the Republican primaries and a close to decisive one in the Democratic side; it all began with the Republican contest in South Carolina, in which Connally had assembled a formidable operation concentrated in that state hoping to score a near-knockout blow across the South a few days later with primaries in Alabama, Florida and Georga on the 11th. Connally's victory was not as large as expected, thanks to Reagan's recovery in New Hampshire and furious barnstorming across the Upstate in the narrow window between the Granite State primary and the Palmetto contest; the KO Connally had hoped for did not materialize as he won 32% to 24% over Reagan, performing well in the Low Country and around Columbia while Reagan outran him in the Greensville-Spartanburg area and in the Charlotte suburbs, a story of a more classic Southern profile and one for the new. The story repeated itself three days later in the triad of Southern contests, with Reagan shocking the national news media by firing his campaign manager John Sears the night of his South Carolina second-place photo finish; Connally carried rural areas in narrow wins in Alabama and Georgia while Reagan performed better, sometimes substantially, in suburban and working class areas, and won Florida by a surprisingly large margin and Connally barely finished ahead of Dole, who dominated in Tampa and Orlando to squeeze out enough delegates to justify staying in the race ahead of friendlier contests.

    Democrats had a much busier day on the 11th; in addition to the three Southern states hosting GOP primaries, caucuses were held in Delaware, Oklahoma and Washington. As expected, Askew dominated in the three Southern states, earning his first true victories and netting a massive delegate haul thanks in particular to clearing 60% of the vote in Florida (Udall totally eschewed the state while Carey campaigned in Palm Beach, home of many New York transplants in order to secure an honorable second), but Udall was hamstrung elsewhere; despite his caucus-friendly progressive profile, his activist-driven campaign once again sputtered and allowed Askew to narrowly clinch the Oklahoma caucuses while Carey dominated not just in Delaware but Washington, too, surprising not just Udall but the campaign of Jerry Brown, which had gone all-in on the Washington caucuses to regain "momentum." Brown was attacked viciously in a series of speeches in Seattle by Congressman Leo Ryan, who endorsed Carey and from his wheelchair angrily denounced Brown's ties to the Jonestown Cult, doing his utmost to keep the events of November 1978 in the news. Brown inexplicably elected to stay in the race despite the massive albatross and his miniscule delegate haul; Carey's wins in Wyoming and Puerto Rico in the following weekend only further narrowed his potential avenues to make a splash as Lloyd Bentsen dropped out and the Democratic contest increasingly looked like a two-man race.

    The GOP contest was no more clear after Illinois, the big prize on the 18th. Connally stunningly placed a far third; Reagan took 36% and Dole 34%, just enough to justify Dole staying in the race, and their mutual annihilation in their home state finally persuaded Crane and Rumsfeld to drop out, and both would endorse Reagan later in the week ahead of the critical New York and Connecticut races. Illinois was the death blow to Udall's campaign, too; Carey took a clear first place, dominating in Chicago and industrial cities like Quincy, Joliet and Rockford, while Askew won every county south of Bloomington and split the collar suburbs with Carey. Udall was able to only win Champaign County, home of the University of Illinois and he largely curtailed his campaigning afterwards.

    Askew once again won a southern state, albeit by a narrower margin, in the Virginia caucuses and then it was on to the New York and Connecticut contests, which his small but intimate and canny inner circle had already conceded were going to be coronations for Carey. And indeed, they were - the "Man Who Saved New York" scored decisive landslide wins in both, though the collapse of the rest of the Democratic field (save increasingly gadfly Brown) allowed Askew to consolidate the rest of the delegates and keep in the hunt. Still, the quietly polite dynamic between Carey and Askew continued through the end of the month (both men ran heavily on their own records and against Ford's, and rarely criticized the other besides the most generic terms) and it was plain that the Democratic contest was now a two-man race - and if Askew couldn't figure out a way to broaden his appeal outside of the South, one he was increasingly likely to lose.

    The GOP primary was a major contrast. In the week between Illinois and the New York/Connecticut contest, a debate was held between the three major candidates on Long Island and it became an ugly slugfest. Connally's prior indictment was brought up, Dole viciously attacked Reagan's suggestions to curtail Social Security and his "voodoo economics," and Reagan aggressively tore into Dole's "campaign to continue his legacy of defeat and retreat at home and abroad to those opposed to liberty." Reagan's muscular turn to the right after firing Sears and bringing in a new staff after South Carolina to let "Reagan be Reagan" had plainly stunted Connally's momentum as the candidate of the right but scared more establishmentarian figures back into Dole's lane; Reagan and Dole effectively tied, again, in New York, muddling the delegate haul and Dole won Connecticut by a broad margin. It seemed that for all the travails of the Ford administration and a restive base, a large subsection of the GOP primary voters were still not persuaded that the "couple of cowboys" were not too sleazy (Connally) or extreme (Reagan). For all his mediocre campaign skills and establishmentarian credentials, Dole had an opening and with major resources behind him looked poised to exploit it.

    Of course, none of the three GOP frontrunners could have anticipated the wrench thrown in the dynamics of the race the night before the New York and Connecticut primaries, which would only begin to metastasize in the days to come ahead of the April primaries...
     
    Big Trouble in a Little Country
  • Big Trouble in a Little Country

    The administration's attention, as always, was fixated on Latin American ongoings and the Argentinian elections in early April were the primary focus. Ford was relieved that they were not marred by violence and Bush praised them for their fair conduct on such short notice after the dictatorship's collapse; the White House was not enthusiastic that the Peronists were returning under Italo Luder, who had won narrowly but cleanly thanks to massive margins in provincial Argentina, but Luder was a man they seemed able to work with. "One headache gone," Bush quipped to Baker a few days later, hopeful that the labor unions would not exercise too much power in the new regime and that Argentina might finally get away from its decades of chaos with the military's prestige completely destroyed.

    It was a story from weeks earlier they should have had their eyes on, though. On March 24, just before GOP primary voters headed to the polls in New York and Connecticut, the Salvadoran Archbishop and fierce opponent of the country's military regime Oscar Romero was publicly gunned down in Church while performing Mass. Public reaction in El Salvador was swift and only fueled further discontent against the rightist regime as Romero became a cause celebre, and his funeral was perhaps one of the largest demonstrations in the history of Latin America and made matters worse with a stampede and gunfire that killed dozens in attendance. The political problems it caused in the United States, however, were just beginning.

    It was Chief of Staff Cheney who created the issues when, in an off the cuff remark to reporters, he said, "There is no circumstance in which the United States will cease providing resources to those who are combating the influence of the Soviet Union, China and Cuba in the American backyard." An ABC reporter followed up by asking: "Even the Salvadoran regime, which is suspected of having ties to whatever group assassinated an Archbishop during Mass?" Cheney pointed straight at her and repeated, "No. Let me repeat: No. Circumstance."

    The remarks were understandably taken as profoundly callous and a firestorm of criticism rained down on Cheney and the administration writ large. Suddenly, the entire foreign policy apparatus of the Ford White House was called into question: if shooting an archbishop performing Mass was not a step too far, what was? Bush and Baker condemned the shooting, Ford reiterated that the United States supported an end to the violence and pointed to his condemnation of the Letelier bombing, and that was supposed to be that. But scandals have a way of taking on a life of their own, and reporters were suddenly very interested in poking into other political killings and the whole affair became an anchor around the neck of Dole, who started fielding very uncomfortable questions about "how far is too far" in the long gap between his victories in Kansas and Wisconsin and the Pennsylvania primary to close out April. Reagan and Connally were able to pile on, portraying Dole's answers as weak and evasive on the fight against communism while implying that of course they didn't condone killing clergy. Senate Democrats began demanding a suspension of aid to the Salvadoran government and Birch Bayh's Intelligence Committee announced it would launch a broad and wide probe into American activities in Latin America.

    The administration battened down the hatches to ride the storm out, with Ford declining to fire Cheney as he had considered initially, but the damage had been done. Dole placed third in Pennsylvania, shockingly, behind Reagan and Connally just weeks after it looked like he was likely to be the nominee, and a May and June sprint to the finish loomed ahead.
     
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