I understand the frustration and outrage, but I am proposing that events would change who said outrage goes to.
I agree. However, a key point I am trying to make is that these trends eroded trust *in government* and the intellectual establishment. This and resistance to liberal social trends benefited the political right not the left.
By 1980, the economy would be in even worse straits than IRL because of the Panama Canal getting damaged.
All else equal this might be true, but I am not sure we have enough information to conclude that. There are other factors in play due to butterflies. What is Fed policy like in this TL? As well, there is no Iranian hostage crisis and oil embargo, either. There may not have been a grain embargo against the Soviet Union.
And this people will want change.
Again, I don't disagree. However, at the time Reagan too was viewed as a significant break from the establishment as well.
Reagan becomes prime fodder as his deregulation policies would be framed as more of the Republican’s recent screwups and Ford likely would’ve done similar if not as much extremes as Reagan would. This along with the need for change is what would aid the Democrats.
As I highlighted earlier in the thread, deregulation was not unpopular at this point in history, most were advocating it, including the political left. Otherwise, again, I don't think we disgaree that much, just on the margin of Carey's likely victory.
And by providing aid and reform and actually doing the things that would help out for economic recovery along with things people would want like healthcare reform, that makes the Dems more popular. And thus, they would associate the progressive ideals with economic prosperity and in turn the older austere measures as not working.
Anyone can advocate for policies during an election, Carey obviously won't have the opportunity to implement them until he's POTUS. In the 1950s the majority of the electorate were Democrats and thought fondly of government. This was only after the successes of FDR and Truman, who the public credited for economic recovery form the lows of the depression. To achieve the same, Carey has to first implement popular policies before Americans can associate them with prosperity, assuming he is so lucky.
Like, as the economy heals in the 1980s and the Dems are likely in charge, when people look bad at how dismal the 1970s, what are they gonna remember? Oh yeah, who was in charge of that dismal decade? Oh yeah, the GOP. The conservatives.
I guess I would have to caution against overestimating the attention span of the median voter.