Most certainly
That sounds like an invitation for Instant Sunshine lol. Hedgehogging behind their massive Air Force designed especially for this moment seems the better choiceI'm wondering if Sweden has enough landing ships to take Leningrad.
Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
Agreed. I don't see *any* reason that killing Soviet civilians helps the Swedish cause here. I do wonder what is going to happen to the Soviet ambassador and the other Soviets with diplomatic immunity. Ideally you'd send them to the next closest country, but those would be NATO members. (quick trip to Rostock???)
if they've been declared persona non grata, they'll have to go *somewhere*...
The Soviet-Swedish War - Part I
The Soviet-Swedish War - Part I
Contrary to his reputation before the war as a hardliner who was reinvigorating a stagnating USSR and who as early as 1978 Western leaders were incredibly fearful of, Yuri Andropov was not a gambler. He certainly leaned into his public image as a man who brooked no nonsense and suffered no fools, and his much-publicized anti-corruption campaign had been compared, limply and incorrectly, to the Great Purges of the 1930s, but at heart he was a shrewd, cautious man who preferred to build consensus within the Presidium and Politburo for his actions and was loathe to make moves if he was unable to credibly predict what might happen two or three steps down the road. He had been committed to continuing the detente of the Nixon and Ford years, not because of any particularly warm and fuzzy feelings towards the West but because he was well-versed enough with the economic and military data to know that the USSR needed a lull in tensions to restructure its economy (like much of the West, only with much more severe problems) while also maintaining its slight edge in military hard power in central Europe. The decision to attack Sweden after the capture of S-363 at Karlskrona was thus one that Andropov took extremely reluctantly - Sweden, contrary to her image in the West as a fairyland of promiscuous blondes, peaceful forest villages and perhaps most crucially a progressive neutrality, was no pushover, as the Soviets would quickly discover, and the choice to attack neutral Sweden when it was a Soviet submarine that had run aground in restricted areas was almost certain to end detente for good.
Andropov, directed by Defense Minister Dmitri Ustinov, elected to make the bulk of the raid one driven by the Air Force, out of concern for the safety of the underfunded Baltic Fleet still being sortied out of the Gulf of Finland. At 0515 on the morning of October 28th, wings of Mig-25s (interceptors) and Mig-27s (ground attack planes) were launched from air bases in Estonia, Kaliningrad, and East Germany. Soviet recon over the previous decade had been very strong and they were well aware of what Sweden's capabilities were like in the southern third of their country, and thus each Mig-27 pilot had a list of radar installations, missile batteries and other exclusively military targets to attack in the opening raid. The Soviet aircraft were of good quality but were close to being phased out in favor of the superior Su-27, Mig-29 and Mig-31 - all of which would be introduced formally in 1982 or 1983, making late October of 1981 a uniquely disadvantageous time for Moscow to decide to go on the attack. Nonetheless, Andropov was confident that what he was putting in the air was superior to Sweden's Flygvapnet.
This was not necessarily the case. The Saab 37 Viggen, when introduced in the early 1970s, had been possibly the most advanced jet fighter in Europe, and was the backbone of the Swedish Air Force. While its eventual replacement was in development as the Viggen's design aged and technology became more sophisticated (particularly around electronics), it was no slouch of an aircraft and matched up well with the Mig-25s and Mig-27s streaking into Swedish airspace before dawn on a Wednesday morning. The defense of southern Sweden was largely in the hands of the Scania Wing and Blekinge Wing, both at airbases near Karlskrona; additional support could be provided from Uppsala and Skaraborg. As dozens of contacts appeared across Swedish radar screens (despite best efforts to come low across the Baltic, many Migs were still detected), dozens of planes were scrambled to intercept and defend Swedish territory. Prime Minister Falldin was woken up from his sleep and the whole Swedish Cabinet taken to a secure location outside of Stockholm; King Carl XVI Gustaf and his family, including his young daughter and heir Viktoria, were evacuated from Drottningholm Palace as well.
At approximately 0600, less than an hour after taking off, the first Soviet planes struck at Karlskrona Naval Station, attempting to decimate whatever vessels were still in port and shatter defensive installations in its vicinity, blow Swedish fuel tanks and crater naval aviation runways and access roads. The second wave, after coming in on attack vector, hammered the site where S-363 had run aground, attempting to destroy the submarine entirely. The third wave struck at air bases and even civilian airfields in Gotland and across Scania and Smaland, attempting to break the ability of Swedish aircraft to respond effectively to the attacks and, most crucially, limit their ability to strike at the Baltic Fleet squadron heading out to help establish continuous sorties for air superiority.
The Soviet raid on the morning of the 28th was largely successful in most of its first-order objectives, less so on others. S-363 was entirely destroyed and the Karlskrona Naval Base was badly damaged, as were access roads, runways and radar and anti-aircraft installations across south-eastern Sweden. Total military and civilian casualties in the opening salvo was close to a thousand dead and approximately three times that number wounded. However, the Swedish Air Force was designed for interception in precisely such an event, and dogfights erupted across the Scanian skies as the run rose over Sweden, and the covering Mig-27s were not entirely able to screen their fleeing ground attack craft from Viggens streaking in at Mach 2 to shoot them down. Fourteen Soviet planes were shot down against four Swedish ones, and only four of the Soviet pilots were able to bail out in time against all four Swedish aviators successfully parachuting to safety.
Shortly after 0700, Moscow confidently messaged Stockholm and proposed an immediate ceasefire, describing the raid as a proportionate response to the S-363 incident. Swedish officials, with thousands across Scania and Smaland dead or wounded and having been at the receiving end of a unilateral surprise attack not dissimilar to Pearl Harbor, had a response that is not fit for print.
Welp, here we go! It'll be interesting to see how this war ends up influencing the Swedish neutrality stance and what effect it leaves on the Swedes in general
Wouldn't be surprised if the Swedish opinion on the USSR after this is similar or even lower than Poland.
NATO membership seems an obvious consequence, which hopefully isn’t too spoilery
Reasonable assumption!
Yes very proportionate what with the 1000's of dead and wounded. That's going to make for some front page picutures that only the most ardent tankies can carry water for. Like if it just stopped at here, it would already be bad for the Soviet position in Europe, but Soviet overconfidence is going to cost them, I bet.
I'll be curious to see how the various European governments respond. I could see left of center types trying to out do the likes of Strauss in rhetoric to avoid any blowback. Probably also a chance to make some moves on European integration in matters of defense and foreign policy. Never waste a good crisis as they say.
I'll be curious to see how the various European governments respond. I could see left of center types trying to out do the likes of Strauss in rhetoric to avoid any blowback. Probably also a chance to make some moves on European integration in matters of defense and foreign policy. Never waste a good crisis as they say.
Indeed. I'm also curious if more left wing parties will suffer politically as a result of this Soviet aggression? (For example Lars Werner and his Left party) That might mean that the centre-right bloc can scrape enough support to stay in charge longer, especially if Sweden is succesful here in the conflict, since they likely get a popularity boost as a result
Hopefully the groundwork for why the USSR doesn’t open a door with a big birthmark labeled “Gorby” is being laid here, and this is a big part of it. No chances to be taken
You’ll definitely see Straussism have some more purchase, and tension between the VGE school of centrist progressivism and old-school labor leftism will be acute. That’s part of the reason I set the “core” EU up with the troika of Healy, VGE and Strauss - three VERY different worldviews, even if they all share a certain contempt for the USSR (Healy moreso than VGE, ironically enough)
Werner’s outfit is completely fucked, yes. Palme probably isn’t the right man for the hour foe S either, but at least in his favor he was never particularly pro-Soviet (compare to, say, Kekkonen and the Finnish political establishment of the time)
So yes Falldin scraping through in September 1982 is highly likely IMO
Interesting. That could mean that Sweden won't be basically ruled by the Social Democrats until 2006 unlike otl, which provides options for a very different Sweden I imagine
Idk about that - eventually every government gets exhausted. No reason the center-right in Sweden couldn’t lose in 1985 or 1988, for instance
EDIT: ohhhh nvm I get what you mean. Yes, very different, though the Carlssom/Persson ministries weren’t exactly some left-wing cornucopia, especially after the housing market collapse of 1990, and even Palme’s second go (pre-Assassination) started dabbling in various moderate neo-liberal leaning policies
Indeed. Btw, do you plan on getting into Danish politics ttl? I'm wondering if conservative Schlüter will be in charge throughout the 80s ttl without Thatcher and Reagan coming into power
I can try to touch on it! I’ll admit I don’t know a whole lot about Danish politics beyond Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
That's entirely fair
I'm sadly not the strongest on the subject myselfNot a move Andropov wanted to make, but one he was forced into by events. But hey, it’s just Sweden - what are they gonna do?
