WW1 is an incredibly fascinating time period, as it was seemingly a more even conflict that could have gone either way that had long lasting consequences. However, I’ve never been able to find any good PODs that give you a Central Powers victory. What are some of the most plausible PODs that would produce a Central Powers victory in the First World War?
Best POD for CP victory in WW1?
- Thread starter Bomster
- Start date
Riain
Banned
Keep the right wing strong as per the Schlieffen/Moltke concept, in order to win the 'Race to the Sea'.
- Take 2 Corps from 7th Army to reinforce the East, rather than from the Siege of Mauberge, keeping these 2 Corps in the west.
- Transfer the 6th Bavarian Army from the French frontier to the right wing after The Battle of the Trouée de Charmes 26 August 1914 rather than building up for then losing The Battle of Grand Couronné from 4 to 13 September 1914
Germany, Bulgaria, and the Ottoman Empire generally over performed (even with missed opportunity and mistakes). Austria-Hungary blew resources, with several events with mass envelopments and desertions wasting huge amounts of manpower. What was more, their defeats enticed Italy and Romania to join against them.
If Austria avoids disaster against Russia in 1914 and doesn’t launch as many failed attacks against Serbia, Italy probably doesn’t feel like joining any time soon and Austria has already saved a half a million men from 1914. If Austria avoids Italian entry they save 2+ million casualties. If they plug enough holes in their military with those resources to prevent several future disasters against Russia, they will save hundreds of thousands of losses. That will in turn probably deter Romanian entry, saving another quarter million men.
If the CP save three million men out of neutral Italy and Romania along with avoiding a few disasters against Russia, that changes most projections and casualty ratios to favor the CP outlasting Britain, France, and Russia.
If Austria avoids disaster against Russia in 1914 and doesn’t launch as many failed attacks against Serbia, Italy probably doesn’t feel like joining any time soon and Austria has already saved a half a million men from 1914. If Austria avoids Italian entry they save 2+ million casualties. If they plug enough holes in their military with those resources to prevent several future disasters against Russia, they will save hundreds of thousands of losses. That will in turn probably deter Romanian entry, saving another quarter million men.
If the CP save three million men out of neutral Italy and Romania along with avoiding a few disasters against Russia, that changes most projections and casualty ratios to favor the CP outlasting Britain, France, and Russia.
ahmedali
Banned
The von Essen incident will benefit the Central Powers greatly because Sweden will hasten the collapse of Russia by putting pressure on Saint Petersburg
It helps Austria a lot
Austrian victory at Monte Grappa and Veneto Vittorio leads to the capture of Venice and the collapse of the Italian front
The failure of the Borislov attack, which leads to the paralysis of the Russian forces completely and left them bleeding, which leads to Romania joining the Central Powers and improves the Austrian situation to a large extent
And most importantly, a German victory in the first battle of Marne
It helps Austria a lot
Austrian victory at Monte Grappa and Veneto Vittorio leads to the capture of Venice and the collapse of the Italian front
The failure of the Borislov attack, which leads to the paralysis of the Russian forces completely and left them bleeding, which leads to Romania joining the Central Powers and improves the Austrian situation to a large extent
And most importantly, a German victory in the first battle of Marne
marathag
Banned
Germany stays on the defensive in the West, slaughters the French in the Saar as they march to their doom under Plan 17.
Germany respects Belgian independence, reminding the British that means no French troops there, either.
Churchill fumes on being unable to get the UK into the War, despite naval Sabre-rattling, but that means the Ottomans lose their new Ships, and they join the CP, as does the Bulgarians
Germany and A-H do well in the East, Serbia taken by year's end, and reduced in size, undoing the first two Balkan Wars, and are deep into Congress Poland.
Russia sues for Peace in 1915, with France following months later.
Germany respects Belgian independence, reminding the British that means no French troops there, either.
Churchill fumes on being unable to get the UK into the War, despite naval Sabre-rattling, but that means the Ottomans lose their new Ships, and they join the CP, as does the Bulgarians
Germany and A-H do well in the East, Serbia taken by year's end, and reduced in size, undoing the first two Balkan Wars, and are deep into Congress Poland.
Russia sues for Peace in 1915, with France following months later.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Have Gavrilo Princip shoot Governor Potiorek instead of Archduchess Sophie, which he wanted to do anyways, get someone competent in charge of the Serbian campaign to begin with
Have the Austro-Hungarian government decide to intern Marshal Putnik rather than let him return to Serbia, puts a less competent/experienced commander in charge
Austria doing better against Serbia in 1914 is potentially the start of a virtuous circle leading to a CP victory
Have the Austro-Hungarian government decide to intern Marshal Putnik rather than let him return to Serbia, puts a less competent/experienced commander in charge
Austria doing better against Serbia in 1914 is potentially the start of a virtuous circle leading to a CP victory
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ahmedali
Banned
If Archduchess Sophie was killed and Franz Ferdinand survived, there would still be World War One.
Because Franz Ferdinand will literally become worse than the war hawks and demand the annihilation of Serbia
But here the Austrian performance will be better because Franz Ferdinand will expel Konrad with another competent person and adhere to a defensive strategy against Russia and an offensive against the Balkans that suits Austria.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Archduchess Sophie was killed in OTL. The thing was after killing the Archduke Princip tried to shoot Governor Potiorek and missed, killing his wife instead. If he killed Potiorek well Potiorek was probably the worst general the Austrians had, him not being available to try and avenge the Archduke is a good thing
Konrad isn't being replaced on the eve of war and most importantly Franz Ferdinand personally selected Konrad for his job in December 1912, so assuming that he could do it, and his uncle would have something to say about that, he would not
Demanding revenge on Serbia is what screwed things up for Austria-Hungary. By going on the offensive against Serbia they tied up troops that could have been used to prevent the disaster in Galicia that cost the Austrians 400,000 casualties, combined with 138,000 at Prezmysl and another 470,000 in the Carpathians. That doesn't even count the losses from the unprepared rushed assaults' in Serbia. Mitigating that series of fuckups almost certainly means Italy stays out of the war and that means a CP victory
The path to victory is a methodical attack on Serbia after the lines against Russia are stabilized, not OTLs hell for leather attempt to destroy them fast
ahmedali
Banned
But Franz Friedenand, the survivor, will still demand revenge from Serbia for his wife
Without this general, we might see a better Austrian performance
I would say an east first strategy. Firstly, there's the possibility that it would keep Britain out of the war, but even if Britain still entered the war I doubt they'd be able to contribute quite as much to the war effort. Telling people to send their sons to die for the "rights of small nations" is one thing. Telling them to send their sons to die because "we think the German navy is too big and we don't want them to become the dominant power on the continent" is another. Fewer Irish Volunteers would join the British Army to go to war, which could create problems for Britain when the rebellion comes. Without the Rape of Belgium, American public opinion won't be quite so pro-Entente, which could complicate supply issues. If the Black and Tan war breaks out early, then American support for the Entente would go from complicated to ASB.
I don't think getting Germany to go east first is as difficult as some people think. In France both General Joffre and General Michel had argued for increased fortifications along the Belgian border out of fear that Germany would do exactly what they did. If those fortifications came to pass, going through Belgium might not seem like the way to deliver a quick knockout to France. Even if Joffre and Michel still don't get their way, you could try delaying the invasion of Belgium while moving up the Russian invasion of East Prussia, which would probably cause Germany to rapidly shift focus to the East.
I don't think getting Germany to go east first is as difficult as some people think. In France both General Joffre and General Michel had argued for increased fortifications along the Belgian border out of fear that Germany would do exactly what they did. If those fortifications came to pass, going through Belgium might not seem like the way to deliver a quick knockout to France. Even if Joffre and Michel still don't get their way, you could try delaying the invasion of Belgium while moving up the Russian invasion of East Prussia, which would probably cause Germany to rapidly shift focus to the East.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Where did I say he survives? My suggestion was that Potiorek dies and Sophie lives, no mention of the Archduke himself, which implies the archduke still dies
ahmedali
Banned
Sorry but I wanted to add make Franz Ferdinand live and his wife die
1914 was the year Franz Ferdinand was to become Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Forces
So his oversight of the war might be interesting, especially if he sidelined Conrad
The problem I usually find that with Germany goes East stuff is that it’s hard to find a POD that will lead to it without handwavium.
Germany going east is not a matter that would easily change. It would require a complete overhaul of the Prussian military thinking of going for a decisive battle and rapid campaign. It would require throwing away any illusions that the war would be over by Christmas. It would require a theoretical understating of modern warfare and its costs both in time, men and resources that not only Germans, but pretty much every general before WW1 lacked. In short, it requires a 180º turn in military thinking of the time, which is not easy to realistically achieve.
The earlier the POD the better. For example, avoiding the 1905 political crisis in Hungary and the latter nationalist government between 1906 and 1910 could do wonders to the Austro-Hungarian preparadness for the war.
If the POD can't predate June 28th, then there are still many options:
- Killing off Potiorek would be nice, since he couldn't fuck up the Serbian Campaign like that.
- Only mobilising Minimalgruppe Balkan at first (again Serbia) could prevent the whole fiasco with the 2nd Army deployment.
- Encircling and destroying the Russian 5th Army at Komarów would be a triumph equal to Tannenberg.
- The presence of both the 2nd and 3rd Armies and reinforcement from the 4th Army could allow the ejection of the Russians from East Galicia. This would be bigger than the German victory at Masurian Lakes.
A great display of strength would keep the Italians, Romanians and Greeks out of the war, while the Ottomans and Bulgarians might even join earlier.
The war couldn't be won quickly in any case, but an unburdened non-bloodied Austria-Hungary would have drastic effects on every aspect of the war. Aside from quick victory scenarios, better Austro-Hungarian performance is the biggest possible game changer from the perspective of the Central Powers.
If you want to keep things simple however, merely keeping Italy out of the war would already garantuee CP victory in almost all cases. Simplest way to keep Italy less likely to enter the conflict is denying the Russians their enormous victory at Przemyśl. Make the Austro-Hungarians abandon the fortress in late October-early November. This would save the A-H Army from enormous losses. Some might say this wouldn't deter Italians from entering the war, but we can't be sure about that. Still, probably this is the bare minimum needed for it to (not) happen.
If the POD can't predate June 28th, then there are still many options:
- Killing off Potiorek would be nice, since he couldn't fuck up the Serbian Campaign like that.
- Only mobilising Minimalgruppe Balkan at first (again Serbia) could prevent the whole fiasco with the 2nd Army deployment.
- Encircling and destroying the Russian 5th Army at Komarów would be a triumph equal to Tannenberg.
- The presence of both the 2nd and 3rd Armies and reinforcement from the 4th Army could allow the ejection of the Russians from East Galicia. This would be bigger than the German victory at Masurian Lakes.
A great display of strength would keep the Italians, Romanians and Greeks out of the war, while the Ottomans and Bulgarians might even join earlier.
The war couldn't be won quickly in any case, but an unburdened non-bloodied Austria-Hungary would have drastic effects on every aspect of the war. Aside from quick victory scenarios, better Austro-Hungarian performance is the biggest possible game changer from the perspective of the Central Powers.
If you want to keep things simple however, merely keeping Italy out of the war would already garantuee CP victory in almost all cases. Simplest way to keep Italy less likely to enter the conflict is denying the Russians their enormous victory at Przemyśl. Make the Austro-Hungarians abandon the fortress in late October-early November. This would save the A-H Army from enormous losses. Some might say this wouldn't deter Italians from entering the war, but we can't be sure about that. Still, probably this is the bare minimum needed for it to (not) happen.
Better pre-war communication/cooperation between the German and Austro-Hungarian General Staffs could do the trick for that, imo. The question is how to achieve that...
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
I dunno - Britain and France, who weren't even formal allies, like Austria and Germany seemed to have better communications and joint staff planning.
ahmedali
Banned
I think the power of the Hungarian aristocracy must also be broken (they refused to fund the army several times)
I find it difficult with old Franz Joseph, who wanted to keep everything as it is, but if he angered him enough or pushed him into a corner, he would have to do so.