Behold a Red Horse (a sequel to "Let Them Pass")

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Title Page, Introduction

Geon

Donor
Behold, A Red Horse

3
When he opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature say, “Come!” 4 And out came another horse, bright red. Its rider was permitted to take peace from the earth, so that people should slay one another, and he was given a great sword. (Revelation 6:3-4 ESV)

Introduction:

The Second World War lasted from May 1944 until June 1952. It was the most destructive conflict in the history of humanity. It cost the lives of millions, devastated Europe, parts of Africa, America, and Asia, and totally changed the geopolitical map of the world for generations to come.

Old nations died in the war and new ones were born. It marked the end of the old Empires that had dominated the world for centuries and ushered in new world powers.

One noted historian wrote.

“The 20th century had it’s ‘official’ beginning in 1901. But it would not be until after World War II that the world could safely have been said to have left the 19th century behind. In the fires of World War II, the last dusty relics of the Old World were burned away on that fiery altar and a new order emerged.”

The following account is a compilation from various sources. No one book can do that titanic conflict justice. But here it is the author’s intent to paint with broad strokes, not so much to give a blow-by-blow description of the war but a general overview.

Yet, even a broad overview cannot avoid the fact that ultimately this war is about people – individuals from the leaders who made the decisions, to the soldiers who carried them out, to the civilians who were affected by those decisions for good or ill. From time to time the author will take the opportunity to focus on individuals and their perspectives on the war.

Some have come to call the war a classic confrontation between the forces of freedom and the forces of tyranny. But this author prefers not to take such a simplistic view of things. This war was not merely a matter of tyrannies versus democracies. Rather, to anyone who examines the facts critically it was a struggle brought on by matters that should have been resolved decades before. To put it simply the second World War was the result of the “unpaid bills” of the First World War.

This book is dedicated to those civilian and military who lost their lives on both sides of this terrible conflict. May this book be a minor tribute to all of those who died. And perhaps a warning to future generations. Again, to quote a noted scientist.

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” (Albert Einstein)
 
Looking forward to this. I was a bit worried in the first thread that WWI had ended too neatly, but that is definitely no longer a concern. The tensions that exploded in 1914-1918 OTL look to have just kept building for another thirty years, with appropriately terrible results.
 
Part 1: Countdown to War; Chapter One: A World Overview

Geon

Donor
Part One: Countdown to War

Chapter One: A World Overview​

In his excellent and monumental work, A History of Two Wars, Winston Churchill wrote the following.

“At the end of the First World War to the casual observer it would appear things were carrying on as they had been before that brief conflict. But this was an illusion. The truth was that in many of the nations that participated in the war the old order was holding on by its fingernails.”

Churchill’s summation could not be more correct.

World War I or the Great European War or the Brief War as it has been called, resolved nothing. The traditional animosities that had existed prior to the war still were very much alive after the two-month conflict came to an end. Indeed, the peace of the Treaty of Berlin only exacerbated matters.

In Western Europe, France had been forced to cede part of its territory to Germany for 20 years as war reparations. It was the second time in less then a hundred years that France had been humbled by Germany. The French also felt betrayed by both the Belgians who had allowed the Germans “free” passage through their country (although it was in actuality far from “free” the eventual bill for allowing the German Army passage across Belgium would come to 5,000,000 American Dollars). In addition France felt betrayed by the British who had failed in their attempt to break out at Le Havre to relieve General Joffre in Paris. For the French World War I represented a large piece of unfinished business.

For Italy, particularly for many military leaders and politicians, the First World War represented a huge missed opportunity. The idea of wresting territory that it was felt “rightfully” belonged to Italy from their old foe, Austria-Hungary, had been behind the desire of many Italians to enter the war. But the war had ended so quickly there was no time to prepare. The Italians still wanted to recover Trieste and many in that nation saw a missed opportunity for Italy to assert itself not just as a regional but as a world power.

Germany came out of the war with a touch of what one historian would later write to be “a nationalistic superiority complex.” Germany had bested three of the most powerful nations in Europe in less then two months. Her army and navy were the most up to date in Europe by the 1920s. Germany believed she had nothing to fear from any of the major powers going into the 1930s.

Likewise, Britain had come out of the war not without a few bruises to be sure, but for the most part unharmed. True, she had been on the losing side of the brief conflict. But she had not lost any territory. Except for a brief loss of prestige, the British had come out of World War I, in the words of Churchill, “smelling like the proverbial rose.” But following the war Britain found herself involved in a naval arms race. The Naval Conference mandated in the Treaty of Berlin did not produce tonnage limitations that could be agreed upon by the great and up and coming naval powers. Between Great Britain, Germany, the United States, and Japan, as well as Austro-Hungary and Italy a race to build the most powerful navy would continue throughout the early 20th century.

While Austro-Hungary was a victor in the First World War she did not come out of the conflict with much to show for it. About the only concession she had been given was having Serbia turned practically into an Austro-Hungarian protectorate. There were those who still wanted Serbia to become part of the Empire.

And speaking of Serbia, she was less then happy with her former “allies” both in the West and the East. Russia’s vow to protect her “Slavic brothers” was perceived as virtually worthless by the people of Serbia. The Serbs had managed on their own to halt two drives by Austro-Hungarian troops into their territory. No Serbian land had been occupied when the armistices were signed. Yet, now they had to endure an Austro-Hungarian presence overseeing much of Serbian life. Growing resentment in Serbia fueled underground movements such as The Black Hand. The Black Hand and other nationalist organizations over the decades would make life very difficult both in Serbia and in parts of Austro-Hungary for the “victorious” Austrians. And there was a growing sentiment among Serbians that a final reckoning was long overdue.

To the East, the defeat of Russia in the war would spark first a socialist revolution in that nation and later a countercoup by right wing militarists in the army. Russia had lost Poland in the war as part of the relatively generous Berlin Treaty. But Russia, like France was now suffering from the humiliation of two major military defeats. One by Japan during the Russo-Japanese War and one in the brief First World War. Now, like France, Russia was looking for a rematch and a reestablishment of Russian hegemony in the West.

Across the ocean in the United States the party was in full swing! The U.S. had been neutral in the brief conflict. And the American economy was roaring with a vigor it would not see again until the post-war late 50’s and 60’s. For the U.S. it seemed the two oceans that bounded it were more than enough to keep out any foreign enemies. And just to be certain, the U.S. had a navy large enough to ensure its security. But, as proved by Charles Lindbergh’s flight across the Atlantic on May 20-21, 1927 the world was shrinking. Between the airplane and faster more efficient warships the two oceans the Americans depended on for security were becoming less and less the protection Americans believed them to be.

In Japan the Japanese military had come out of the war with Tsingtao as a prize. They had stood up to Russia in the Russo-Japanese War a few years before the First World War and they had shown themselves the equal of the “mighty” German Empire. Now, Japan had a growing fleet and army. And they were looking for colonies which would feed their growing economy. To quote another historian.

“Japan wanted a place at the table to be seen as an equal among the other world powers. And she was fully prepared to force her way to the table if needs be.” (Japan in the Early 20th Century, by James Morrison, 1930)

As the 1920s dawned it was clear to many that there were too many unresolved conflicts along with new problems caused by World War I. And these would, with the help of some political shifts in key nations, resort in the building of the pressures that would lead to the explosion that was World War II.
 
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Out of curiosity, what would you say those tropes are?

Lets see, France goes fascist, Churchill comes to power as a leader of a right wing/fascist state in GB, both ally to attack Germany/CPs, Germany holds off the the combined might of a resurgent France/Russa/GB, America joins the CPs (normally because of a degree of hand wavium as to the exact reasons that the resurgent 'fascist' powers attack them), the CPs win round 2 and Germany goes from strength to strength, normally Germany becomes embroiled in a Cold War with America.

Think those are all the main ones :).
 

Geon

Donor
Lets see, France goes fascist, Churchill comes to power as a leader of a right wing/fascist state in GB, both ally to attack Germany/CPs, Germany holds off the the combined might of a resurgent France/Russa/GB, America joins the CPs (normally because of a degree of hand wavium as to the exact reasons that the resurgent 'fascist' powers attack them), the CPs win round 2 and Germany goes from strength to strength, normally Germany becomes embroiled in a Cold War with America.

Think those are all the main ones :).
Without giving away anything I will simply say this. You are only partially right in your concerns. But only partially!
 
Lets see, France goes fascist, Churchill comes to power as a leader of a right wing/fascist state in GB, both ally to attack Germany/CPs, Germany holds off the the combined might of a resurgent France/Russa/GB, America joins the CPs (normally because of a degree of hand wavium as to the exact reasons that the resurgent 'fascist' powers attack them), the CPs win round 2 and Germany goes from strength to strength, normally Germany becomes embroiled in a Cold War with America.

Think those are all the main ones :).
So, basically TL 191 then :)

Thanks for sharing. If I ever get round to writing a Timeline, I'll try to avoid these
 
The tropes for a Central Powers victory are oft used poorly, yet at the same time, in the right circimstances, can be justified. They're so overused, though, that they need a good solid basis.
IMVHO, a soundly defeated France would likely replace its government--how many have they had in OTL since Louis XVI got his haircut? FIVE republics, 2 empires, the Vichy regime, and a monarchy--or am I missing anything?
 
Well that was fast, now I wonder if technology progressed slower than that of IRL since ww1 in this timeline was quick, also I wonder why there wasn't a crash like the great depression.
 
The tropes for a Central Powers victory are oft used poorly, yet at the same time, in the right circimstances, can be justified. They're so overused, though, that they need a good solid basis.
IMVHO, a soundly defeated France would likely replace its government--how many have they had in OTL since Louis XVI got his haircut? FIVE republics, 2 empires, the Vichy regime, and a monarchy--or am I missing anything?
I'd classify it as two monarchies actually - 1830 was not a regular succession!

EDIT: It's also debatable if the 1st French Republic should really include the Directorate or the Consulate. And whether the 2nd Republic ended a year before the 2nd Empire giving another interregnum where Napoleon III was President for life.
 
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I am enjoying this timeline. The key for me is that it is believable.

I am wondering about what happens with the Ottoman Empire. My memory is that in the original time line, there was the Armenian genocide, the expulsions of the Greeks from Turkey, the Greek-Turkey War, and the suppression of the Kurds.

I have often wondered if would have happened if the Turks had not suppressed the Kurds and instead made them full partners in Turkey. Would Turkey have ended up with the Northern Iraqi oil fields. With the larger population and if the oil wealth was spend wisely, would Turkey become a stronger nation?
 
All the best Wehrmacht generals fighting a defensive war! Rommel, Guderian, Manstein, Kesselring and Von Rundstedt defending instead of attacking! I Foresee fortress Germany in the making.
 

marathag

Banned
But, as proved by Charles Lindbergh’s flight across the Atlantic
may be butterflied

They would be no vast fleet of Curtiss JN-4D 'Jenny' available for as little as $50 on the post-War surplus market, so he wouldn't have a Barnstorming career: this may not even be a thing in this Timeline

OTL, Seven Companies were making the Jenny for Trainers for the US air Service, and UK's RFC and RNAS, around 6800 produced, most at a original contract price of $5465

It was the most produced aircraft in the World, as of 1919

After the War, Curtiss bought them back, at 13 cents on the Dollar, and resold them a second time, most still in their original shipping crates. Lindbergh got one of these for $500

Here, the JN would still be around, but in far smaller numbers. Hundreds, not thousands
Fewer Americans would have been trained as pilots during the War, and no cheap aircraft in the 1920s
 
With as short as WWI was aviation as a whole is set back. World war I spead airplane development just as much if not more than WWII did OTL. TTL little took place, so short of wartime needs everything from engine to airframe to weapons is off. Lindberg may fly but not in 21 maybe 31.
 
Chapter 2: France (part one)

Geon

Donor
First let me be clear. I am not an economist or an expert on French politics. I am writing things as logically as possible here. Before I spring my little surprise in the election mentioned at the end of this chapter I am going to post this section on post war France. Please feel to comment, and where you think you can reasonably "fill in the blanks" with names as well as facts and figures to help me here please do. Any help will be appreciated.
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Chapter Two: France (1914-1934)​

France was a nation hurt, bleeding, and spoiling for revenge following World War I.

The Treaty of Berlin had been extremely lenient to France, at least from the German point of view. To the French it was another major humiliation. France was forced to cede some of its most important iron and coal producing territories to German for 20 years as reparations for the war. And France had to demilitarize all its territories bordering Belgium and Germany.

The German victory would lead to the toppling of President Poincare’ from power. At first the new government seemed to show a definite socialist leaning. But the March on Paris by disgruntled French veterans also showed a growing conservative and right-wing tendency that would make itself even more known in the decades to come.

The Socialist leaning government under Georges Clemenceau would last only five years. It would be toppled in 1919 following a major economic recession. Meantime the French version of the trial of the century would add fuel to the fire of discontent namely the trial/court martial of General Joffre.

The Trial of General Joffre​

The trial of General Joseph Joffre would begin on January 5, 1915. The General had been arrested just after returning to the provisional capital of Lyons, France on charges of incompetence, insubordination, and failure to acknowledge and obey orders.

To the government Joffre was the reason for France’s failure in the war. His mismanagement of the armies under his command had led to France’s military defeat.

But, to the veterans who had served under Joffre the general was a convenient scapegoat the government could use to deflect from the blame it shared in this defeat. They argued that Joffre had been “stabbed in the back” by a government which had refused to give him enough support. Instead of having General Petain push to relive Paris the government had merely appointed him to hold a defensive line on the Seine to guard the way to Lyons.

Demonstrations for and against the General would be held in cities throughout ance. Some of them turning violent when the demonstrators from both sides met.

The trial itself would last for 3 months with witnesses ranging from Joffre’s personal staff to General von Kluck who was called for the Defense. After von Kluck’s testimony as he was stepping down from the stand, he turned to the defense docket and saluted Joffre which brought cheers from the balcony from many of the veterans there.

One reporter for a Socialist-run newspaper would comment.

“Watching the enthusiasm of these men for their General I could not help but wonder. The war only lasted 2 months and while the cost in French lives was considerable it was less then it could have been. If the war had lasted two years rather then two months. Would these men be cheering the good General or cursing his name?”

By the end of March there was tension in Paris where the trial was being held and throughout France. The new President had sent word to the police forces in every major city to be on alert for trouble once the final verdicts were read.

On March 28th General Joffre stood before the judges as the verdict was rendered.

On the charge of Incompetence: Not Guilty.

On the charge of Insubordination: Not Guilty.

On the charge of Disobeying Orders: Guilty.

The gallery broke into shouts of outrage mixed with a few cheers. After the judges gaveled the trial to order the sentence was read.

Ten years imprisonment on Cayenne, commonly known as Devil’s Island.

Once again, the shouting broke out. This time the judges had to order the court cleared. Through all this General Joffre stood silently at attention.

Loud and often violent demonstrations broke out in every French city and town led by veterans and right-wing political parties. The verdict marked the fall of the government. A no-confidence vote in the National Assembly caused the collapse of the left-leaning government and the rise of a more conservative government.

The verdict in the trial of General Joffre was by no means the sole reason for France’s movement to the right. But it could be fairly said it was the first domino falling that started the chain.

The French Economy​

With most of France’s coal and iron ore production under German control for 20 years the French economy suffered a major recession. France was forced to import a large amount of the coal and iron ore it needed but even so large numbers of veterans returned from the war to find they no longer had jobs.

Exports from France’s colonies allowed her to offset some of the economic impact she had suffered by the loss of her coal and iron producing areas by the simple expedient of trading more of the product produced in her colonies for needed iron ore and coal from Britain and the United States.

Even with this however by 1919 unemployment figures were reaching 14 percent in France proper.

Compounding the problem was a minor flood of refugees from the German occupied territories. Frenchmen who refused to work for the Germans. The Germans had allowed French to remain the primary language in the conquered territories since those territories were to be returned in 1934. And in general, French cultural traditions were respected. But many a patriotic Frenchman in those occupied territories refused to work for a German boss.

Unfortunately, this group of refugees would add to the jobless problem. There was no more work for them in France then there had been for the veterans returning from the war.

Given that France now had to import more in the way of finished goods and raw materials the prices for those goods and items made from those raw materials would rise to cover said cost. As a result, you had unemployed people seeking jobs that weren’t there and those that were employed having to pay more for what was on the shelves. This would make the electorate more and more prone to a drift politically to the right.

The Drift to the Right​

France did not become what it would be by 1934 overnight. Instead it was gradual drift marked at times by various attempts by a Socialist/Communist coalition to “bring the nation back to sanity,” as many of their political slogans would state.

But every time during the post war period leading up to the withdrawal of the Germans from the occupied provinces in 1934 that the coalition came to power either in the National Assembly or in the Presidency, the government they formed would barely last a year. Part of this was the desire of the socialist coalition to impose wage and price controls particularly on milk and dairy products. (The area occupied by Germany also happened to be a center for French dairy production.) and on other products. In addition, the decisions by some of these governments to cut the pensions of veterans in the war and to reduce the size of the military would be met by demonstrations, often violent.

To the right the “unholy alliance” created by the socialists with the communists fueled voices that claimed the war had been lost because of the left-leaning traitors in the French government. Never mind that many among the socialists had solidly been on the side of the peace movement to stop the war. Unfortunately, many bought the idea that this coalition of socialists had somehow been responsible for the French defeat. Their purpose was nothing less then bringing about a French communist state.

The cries of these alarmists and conspiracists would find listening ears among many of the French population, particularly among the middle class and the religious conservatives.

By 1921 the number of seats held by the Socialist Coalition was shrinking with each election. The conservative parties in France were more and more the majority.

Military Advances​

One thing France learned coming out of the First World War was the need for mobility. The speed with which the Germans were able to overwhelm the French and encircle Paris showed that a mobile army was a winning army.

As a result, the French generals of the late 1910s and 1920s looked for ways to make their armies move quicker in the field. To this end France was one of the first nations to produce an armored personnel carrier (APC). In addition, France was quick to adopt British designs for the armored vehicle British soldiers called a “tank”. France had two designs that Renault was producing by the end of the 20’s. However, the iron ore and steel shortages meant that France would not have fully operational tank or mobile armored divisions until the 30’s.

In airpower the French proved they could produce fighters and bombers the equal of the German models that were now appearing. But again, to produce the planes in enough quantities to be useful in combat required raw materials that were needed elsewhere in the French economy.

The French were eager to join the naval arms race begun by the failure of the warring nations to reach a suitable agreement on tonnage limitations. But again, they were plagued by the need for the metal to build new ships with. Until 1934 they were forced to simply maintain a fleet that was rapidly becoming obsolescent. With only one experimental aircraft carrier – the Libertie’ – being built during this period.

The French armed forces were a rapidly aging force but with the technology to make a major leap forward.

The Elections of 1930​

By 1930 with the nation’s politics more and more leaning to the right a coalition of conservative and ultra-conservative group formed in response to a massive attempt by the Socialist Old Left to win back a majority in the National Assembly. The promises of the Old Left for travail, pain, espere (work, bread, hope) did not resonate with a French public whom wanted these things but not at the price it seemed the Old Left wanted for them.

The 1930 elections were further affected by the repeal of several old laws by the National Assembly specifically one which barred members of the former French ruling dynasties from residing in France. Calling the law, “a piece of republican trash forcing France’s sons to live apart from their home,” lawmakers had repealed the law in 1928 in the Assembly.

This set the stage in 1930 for one of the former members of France’s former ruling families to come home.
 
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