Under the Spreading Chestnut Tree: A Nineteen Eighty-Four Timeline

To quote a certain Mr. Goldstein, "Eastasia only emerged as a distinct unit after another decade of confused fighting". Expect some new factions, sovereign states and wars to pop up in the Far East sometime in the future.
 
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If the war had been going on since 1959 (25 years as stated), then it means Japan could've had that decade (1937-1947) to conquer large swaths of China and Eastern Asia.
 
5
A passage from p. 134 of The Hammer and Bayonet: A History of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Until the End of the Second Great War by Colin Morford, 1948

...Stalin's escape from capture was suspicious to say the least, especially considering the fact that every other Sovpolite was apprehended within a day of his damnation. In fact, quite a few aspects of his disappearance were suspicious. For example, it was somewhat suspicious that, by all accounts, Trotsky's condemning speech had been given roughly between 1:45 and 2:20 in the afternoon, and yet Viktor Rolovich seemed quite sure that he had admitted the mysterious passenger and the two companions just before his lunch break at 2:30. It is more suspicious that (after a bit of coaxing) Rolovich "recognized" the unknown escorts as Politburo members Andrei Bubnov and Grigori Sokolnikov--still more suspicious that, after these two men had been banished from the Party for their treason, Trotsky was the only original member of the Politburo who remained in power.

No matter the circumstances, Stalin was out of Trotsky's hair politically, but certainly not verbally. Being exiled to an unknown location turned a man who had never been known to write a single page of rhetoric into a prolific critic on the affairs of Trotskyism and the Soviet Union. As of the day these lines were written, hundreds of his essays and treatises attacking the principle of Trotsky's Bolshevism have found their way into the Soviet domain, despite the best efforts of the censors to keep them out. It would seem, in fact, that Stalin's writings were more widely circulated in the USSR than anywhere else in the literate world; even shortly after they began coming in, Trotsky feared their influence to the point that he would call Party Congresses for the specific purpose of demolishing Stalin's messages and reaffirming Stalin as the ultimate traitor to the Bolshevik cause.
 
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So did Trotsky have Stalin exiled himself? If so, wouldn't it have made more sense just to arrest him and haul him off somewhere?

If you remember, in his speech condemning Stalin, Trotsky mentions how, among others, Britain is a "capitalist hive" that must be brought to its knees. In Trotsky's mind, when Stalin reveals himself to the world (which he will do...won't he?), it'll make Britain seem like the ultimate enemy for harboring the Soviets' public enemy #1--perfect for building mistrust of the British in the Soviet Union.
 
6: Revolution for Export
Lidové Noviny*, 17 April 1925

THOUSANDS OF FIREARMS, AMMUNITION SUPPLIES DISCOVERED BEING SMUGGLED FROM USSR
by Pavel Šimčík

Several boxcars full of illicit weapons and ammunition were discovered hidden aboard a train attempting to enter Czechoslovakian territory, according to customs officers. On Tuesday night, the train arrived at the Polish border, having departed on Sunday from the city of Vinnytsia in the USSR. The train's manifest listed its cargo as including wheat, petroleum, and ferrous metals; however, while searching one car, border security officers found rifles and ammunition hidden behind boxes of grain. After further inspection, they discovered that three more boxcars were also clandestinely filled with arms and ammunition. The officers quickly determined that the operators of the train shipment were attempting to smuggle weapons and ammunition into Czechoslovakia.

Government authorities confiscated the contraband, which reportedly included 80,000 boxes of rifle bullets and 7,500 rifles. According to official government sources, it is suspected that the weapons were meant to be delivered in secret to members of the Communist Party, which has been subject to increasing controversy in the past months for increasing radicalism and militance. When pressed for an explanation of the attempted smuggling operation, Soviet Foreign Commissar Alexandra Kollontai vaguely blamed it on "extremist Party members" in the southwest of the country who acted without the knowledge or consent of the central government in Moscow. Kollontai pledged that Moscow would investigate the action, and claimed that the Soviet Union's foreign policy does not aim to disrupt the sovereignty of the Czechoslovak Republic. This comes in contrast to a speech given by Communist Party General Secretary Trotsky at a Party Congress in September, in which he claimed that it is the ambition of the Party to ensure that "all nations" be "swept away by...the tides of revolution".

Events attributed to the Communist Party include the January Workers' March in Ostrava, in which over 1,200 Party members and 400 factory workers demonstrated in front of the city's administrative centre and clashed with police, resulting in two deaths. Since November, over 300 members of the Party have been jailed for inciting violence against police and government officials; this arms shipment is an ominous sign not just of the Party's violent intentions, but of increasingly close relations with the government in Moscow, which has repeatedly voiced its ambitions to spark violent coup d'états in other countries.

*A center-right Prague daily newspaper
 
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If the war had been going on since 1959 (25 years as stated), then it means Japan could've had that decade (1937-1947) to conquer large swaths of China and Eastern Asia.

If anything, Japan would have overextended and bled out by that point. Japan just didn't have what it took to win in China, while doing all the atrocities that they did. It's rather difficult to avoid bleeding your armies to death from attrition and rebellion when infrastructure's nonexistent, and your troops spear babies for fun.

More likely, it's that the Long March fails, and the PRC is wiped out before it's born. This in turn leads to some form of Nationalist government taking over, before eventually evolving into Eastasia.
 
7
Budapesti Hírlap*, 29 July 1925

KUN FOUND GUILTY OF TREASON; SENTENCED TO EXECUTION
by Ormos Benczyk

Today, the highly-anticipated verdict in the state trial of Béla Kun was announced. In a radio address to the country on the morning of 29 July, Prime Minister Bethlen announced that the National Court had found Kun guilty of "treason against the Hungarian people and the murder of dozens of Hungarian citizens" and that he had been sentenced to death by firing squad. Following Bethlen's announcement, public prosecutor Andras Kerekes read the official court verdict, in which Kun was accused of having abused his position in the short-lived communist dictatorship of 1919 to directly cause the "starvation, economic crises, and social turmoil which plagued Hungary" between March and August of 1919.

As readers will no doubt recall, during the ruinous months when Hungary was under the rule of the illegitimate communist government, the country suffered from grave food shortages and currency inflation which wreaked havoc on the economy and caused great hardship for hundreds of thousands of Hungarians. Though the nominal head of the dictatorship was Chairman Sándor Garbai, it was widely known that Kun wielded real power as Foreign Minister. Therefore, Kun was found to be primarily responsible for the treasonous Marxist policies which led to this economic and social decay. Though not officially mentioned in the trial, many Hungarians also hold Kun responsible for the country's defeat in the Rumanian war through ineffective military efforts; if he had been charged with this, he would likely have been held accountable for the countless lives claimed by the war.

In addition to reading out Kun's verdict and death sentence, Bethlen announced that the government would be pursuing a more defensive stance toward the Soviet Union. Although Soviet General Secretary Trotsky continues to deny the Soviet government's involvement in Kun's entry into Hungary, Bethlen maintains his accusation that the Kremlin sent Kun to Hungary for the eventual purpose of bringing about a second communist uprising. The evidence gathered during Kun's trial--including the Soviet-forged passport which Kun had been carrying as part of his disguise when he was captured in May--and confessions made by Kun himself corroborate the government's accusations of the CPSU's malicious intentions.

Despite Trotsky's denials, Prime Minister Bethlen posited that a conspiracy was in place between the Soviet Government and Marxist elements within Hungary to cause instability in the Regency, and announced that harsh measures will soon be introduced to root out communist activity in Hungary. The exact details of these measures have not been revealed, though it is likely that they will involve similar trials of other individuals suspected of collaborating with the Communist Party of the Soviet Union to cause rebellion against the Regency. The cooperative individuals implicated by Kun during his trial will undoubtedly be the first to come under investigation.

*A conservative, nationalist-leaning Budapest daily
 
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8
Journal of Fritz Kleppermann, an Essen youth
Sunday, 4 October 1925


Went to another Party meeting today. Oskar went with me, but Julius couldn't go. I wish he hadn't missed it today--he asked us to fill him in tomorrow, but so much happened that I don't even know if I can remember it all. They read us the latest tract from the leader of the rogue Socialists. It was total dreck, like those people usually produce, but it was almost frightening this time. The future they want for Germany is scary, with the upheaval of the German people and society and all, and when you hear the crap he spews out you can't help but shout it down, because you're trying to drown out the message he's sending so that no one ever will hear it and so your friends know you're not one of them and so you fit in with the rest of them but you still know that there will be people to fall for it there will always be people to fall for it if we don't do something about it and God help us all if they ever come into power because that will be the death of us all. The way they want to crush the capitalists is alright enough, I don't want to be working in a factory my whole life, but if they get their way Germany will just be a puppet of the Russians. If the cause wants to succeed we'll need to be so strong that all of Europe will bow before us, that France and Britain will run from our might, and then we'll bring the real socialism to the places where it's needed. I can't wait till I can vote, our leader said today that our voices are necessary to elevate the cause into the Reichstag. He's wise, he knows the real path to socialism is through the government. The rogue Socialists aren't true revolutionaries or true Germans, they're wild dogs who riot on the command of that sheep-faced Jew in Russia. No one will ever let them get into power, I don't care how many riots they throw or how many seats they hold now, no one will elect them ever again. And when we've found our power we'll wipe them all out, we'll rid Germany of the Marxist poison running in its blood, we'll send Russia crashing down and purge the Jews who run the show there. Germany will win.
 
Please know that tomorrow I'm leaving on an international trip until April 1, so I don't that I'll be able to post another update this coming week.
 
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