Under the Spreading Chestnut Tree: A Nineteen Eighty-Four Timeline

Maybe someday! I’d have to edit parts of it and trim it down (not to mention finish it in the first place), but my ultimate ambition is to publish this story in some form.

I profoundly appreciate the positive feedback I’m getting, but please feel absolutely free to point out implausibility if you spot it, so I can get rid of it to increase the credibility (but don’t be too picky about it—I had the Socialist Party of America ascend to power after only about four years of profound change in American history, something which I think would have been highly unlikely in real life but I felt was necessary to carry the story forward).
If this becomes an actual book, I would totally buy a hardcover and read it over and over again. It's that good.

Also, can you give us a hint on the status on Australia and New Zealand?
 
So, do we know who won the 1940 Presidential Elections? Anyways, what's Imperial Japan like? Are they under the Toseiha clique as per OTL or did the nutjobs in the Kodoha clique take over under the banner of a Showa Restoration? As this is a 1984 prequel, I'm thinking it's the latter.
Well, I know how the 1940 Presidential election turned out. ;) The update after next should give you an indication.

As for Japan, it's continuing the fight against the uneasily allied forces of the KMT and CCP, but they'll come into play quite soon, once the war is over in Europe (which won't be long if I can help it). Not much has changed for Japan by this point ITTL, and that's why I haven't yet covered them. I will, though—every part of the world will get its helping of dystopia, I just don't know exactly when.

To your question, the Toseiha clique is still in charge, since, like in OTL 1941, Japan has not yet been bled dry from attrition by the war. Therefore, the Toseiha's strategy of collaboration between existing institutions like the zaibatsu and the government (rather than the Kodoha's aims of violent revolution followed by totalitarian rule) seem to be working. So, the Toseiha is in power, for now—although they are known ITTL as the Harmonious Path Faction.

If this becomes an actual book, I would totally buy a hardcover and read it over and over again. It's that good.
So would I.
I would buy it in hardcover too.
Geez, if you want one that bad I'll mail you each an autographed copy!

Also, can you give us a hint on the status on Australia and New Zealand?

Why, since you asked so nicely, the next update shall bring us up to speed on both Australia and New Zealand!
 
Last edited:
65
I promised that this update would bring us up to date on both Australia and New Zealand, but I figured that 64 updates' worth of total neglect warrants a heftier dose of exposition than can be covered in a single update. So, here's part one of how Australia's been doing:

The Sydney Morning Herald, March 24, 1930


KNOX TO BE APPOINTED GOVERNOR OF N.S.W.

New South Wales Premier Thomas Bavin has announced that he will advise the King to appoint Adrian Knox, Chief Justice of the High Court, as Governor of New South Wales. Knox, 66, announced just days ago that he was retiring from the Court after over a decade of distinguished service, and most observers expected he would retire from public life. However, when asked whether or not he intends to serve as Governor, he responded in the affirmative. Knox will be the first Governor in a long time not to come from the ranks of the British military; sources within the state government indicate that Bavin's initial preference for the post of Governor was Sir Philip Game of the Royal Navy, but personal differences caused the Premier to pick another distinguished statesman for the job. [1]

October 26, 1930

LANG GAINS FIFTEEN SEATS, FORMS GOVERNMENT

In yesterday's elections to the state Assembly, Mr. J. T. Lang, Leader of the Labor Party's New South Wales branch, led his Party to a profit of 15 seats, winning a majority of 9 and setting himself up to become the next Premier of New South Wales. [2]


From Jack Lang: The Pied Piper of Canberra by Ordney Brigstocke, 1953


The Great Depression hit Australia hard, just as it hit every other wealthy country in the world. The highly profitable export market, which had sustained so much prosperity in the preceding decade, practically disappeared, rendering millions of Australians unemployed and removing billions of pounds from the market. As a result, prices plummeted, deflation reached crippling levels and most forms of commercial activity ground almost to halt. Faced with unemployment rates of nearly 30% and a stagnating economy, the newly-elected Labor government of Prime Minister James Scullin had to find a way out of the crisis.

The solution they came up with was harsh on the millions of Australians who had been rendered destitute by the financial collapse. Acting on the advice of British banker Otto Niemeyer, Scullin urged a plan to pay off the country's debts, balance the national budget, and further deflate the pound; this program would require massive reductions in government spending (including cuts to salaries and pensions for government workers), as well as a sharp tax increase. Needless to say, Scullin's plan was unpopular among the common people, which looked much more favourably upon the proposals of Premier Lang and his government in New South Wales.

Lang was fiercely opposed to austerity measures. He had won the premiership of New South Wales in 1930 on a promise to deal with the Depression, and his plans drew upon the ideas of the British economist John Maynard Keynes; whereas Scullin's plan called for zealous repayment of Australia's foreign debt, Lang urged that interest repayments on all government borrowings be sharply reduced, and that the resulting savings be channeled directly into the economy through the still-functioning banking system. The most inventive aspect of Lang's plan was the abandonment of the Gold Standard for what he called the “Goods Standard”, whereby the amount of money in circulation would be determined not by a fixed quantity of gold, but by the total value of all goods produced by the Australian economy.

Bowing to pressure from conservative elements of the Labor Party, Scullin resigned as Prime Minister on 14 June 1931. He was replaced by his Treasurer, Joseph Lyons, who promptly paid off the foreign debt and then demanded that Lang turn over New South Wales's share of the cost. As the new Prime Minister discovered, however, Lang was as bold as he was innovative. Rather than simply surrendering NSW's money to Canberra, Lang withdrew the state's entire budget and held it in cash at Trades Hall, where the federal government could not access it. A political showdown had begun between Lang and Lyons, and the stakes were high: Lyons was risking a large portion of his political capital within the Labor Party and outside of Canberra, and Lang was risking his entire political career.

Lyons at first seemed in the superior position, as he had a highly influential ally: New South Wales Governor Adrian Knox. Knox was a veteran of Australia's conservative tradition, and held Lang's bold defiance to be illegal (which, in Lyons' defence, they were). More importantly, as a former Chief Justice of the High Court, he knew that as His Majesty's anointed representative, he had the constitutional power to dismiss the Premier and call for a new state election. No viceregal official had ever exercised such a power before in the country's history, but it looked increasingly like he would set yet another constitutional precedent when, suddenly[...]


The Sydney Morning Herald, 12 August, 1931

GOVERNOR KNOX DEAD!

The Honourable Adrian Knox—Governor of New South Wales, Chief Justice of the High Court of Australia, and respected jurist and legal scholar—was found dead this morning in his residence at Governor House, having died peacefully in his sleep. [3]


From Jack Lang: The Pied Piper of Canberra by Ordney Brigstocke, 1953

[…] With no Governor to dismiss the rebellious Premier, Lyons' most convenient asset had disappeared. He was minimally concerned, however, because his second-best option—suing Lang's government in the High Court—remained open. The Court was still dominated by conservative justices, and was sure to take Canberra's side on this legally precarious issue; perhaps it would appear unsettling for the Commonwealth to be so heavy-handed in imposing its will on a single state, but, Lyons reasoned, these were extraordinary times, and extraordinary measures were required. Unfortunately for Lyons, he had underestimated his rival once again. He barely had time to publicise his intentions before the floor dropped out from under him: in a hastily-organized confidence motion, 11 of New South Wales's 20 Labor MPs (whose loyalties lay more with Lang than with the seemingly aloof Lyons) voted with the opposition to bring down the government. All of a sudden, Lyons' attentions were focused solely on the forthcoming election, and he had no time to spare for the rebellious Lang.

The Premier did not waste the time he'd bought himself. Rather than run a formal campaign, Lang chose to institute his policies, and turn the election in his state into a referendum on his leadership style. As such, the day after the election was announced, all £18 million were hastily withdrawn from the Trades Hall building and spirited to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, whose cooperative leaders quickly converted it into credit and distributed it to smaller banks, businesses and individuals throughout the state. At first, Lang's approach was unpopular, with Lyons' newly-formed, fiscally conservative United Australia Party (a merger of the National Party, the Australian Party, and some dissident Labor MPs) polling highest in New South Wales during the first weeks of the 43-day campaign. However, midway through the campaign, the state economy started to pick up, and continued to rise as commerce revived under the torrent of government spending. As election day neared, unemployment levels began to slowly drop, as businesses started up again and hired back old employees, and a hint of recovery graced the shores of New South Wales.

When voters went to the polls on 15 October, 1931, they turned in an echoing endorsement of Lang and his policies: all but two of NSW's 28 federal constituencies returned Labor MPs, rejecting several former Laborites who had thrown in their lot with Lyons' UAP. The effect of Lang's governance rattled throughout the country, as several Labor candidates picked up seats in conservative areas. When the dust cleared away, no party had the 38 seats necessary for a majority: the new UAP held 33 seats, Labor (under the interim leadership of Ted Theodore) had dropped to 29, and Earle Page's agrarian Country Party had 13. Lyons had to sort out the formation of a coalition with Page's caucus and pass a budget before turning his attentions back to Lang, by which point nearly three months had passed since Lang had injected much of New South Wales's treasury into the state economy. When Lyons' new government demanded the money, Lang bared his empty hands and pointed to the signs of renewed growth in the New South Wales economy. The battle was over, and Lang had won.

Not that Lyons would forego his revenge. Within a month of the election, the case was appealed in the High Court, which quickly ruled against Lang, ordering that he resign his post as Premier and that new elections be held. Considering his work finished, Lang gladly stepped down on 16 November, handing the reins over to his political ally Jack Beasley, who handily won the subsequent state election with an increased majority of two seats (and governed in large part on the advice of Lang). Lang would not, however, stay out of politics for long: as the most popular Labor Party member in the country, he was moving up to the federal service.

A by-election was found for Lang in East Sydney, whose electors sent him to the House of Representatives in an enormous landslide. As an MP, Lang was quickly elected leader of the Labor Party against token opposition (Theodore, the caretaker leader of the federal party, chose not to contest the leadership). He was massively popular in his own state and in loyal Labor constituencies for his defiance of Lyons, and as Leader of the Opposition he showed no mercy, using his oratorial skills to periodically harangue Lyons about the suffering that continued in the country despite Lyons' “sensible” policies of recovery. As Beasley continued using NSW's somewhat limited capacity for deficit spending and the state economy continued to grow slowly but steadily, Labor Premiers were elected in Tasmania and Western Australia, cementing the party's dominance on the state level. Lyons rode his mandate to its maximum date of expiry, until finally, on 2 December 1934, elections were held. Aside from two seats gained by the Centre Party (which had been formed the previous year and had never yet contested a federal election), the result was predictable: a comfortable majority for Labor, and a mandate for the mustachioed Sydney firebrand. Jack Lang was the Prime Minister.


The Canberra Times, 12 February 1935

McKELL ANNOUNCES “NATIONAL RECOVERY PROGRAMME” TO CURB POVERTY, UNEMPLOYMENT

Treasurer William McKell announced yesterday the incumbent government's plan to address the country's pervasive problem of unemployment with an injection of over £210 million into the economy through Commonwealth Bank credit, and transition from a monetary policy based around the Gold Standard to one determined by the gross economic output of the country, as delineated by Prime Minister Lang during the recent electoral campaign. Addressing criticism by the Opposition that this "National Recovery Programme", as the Treasurer called it, will compel the federal government to spend more money than it controls and may destabilise the nation's fiscal system, McKell stated that now is “a time of crisis in Australia”, pointed out that unemployment rates remain high at 16%, and called the plan “moderate and restrained” relative to the country's needs.


From Economic Policies of the Australian Labor Party, 1901—1941, Melbourne University Press

After some modifications mandated by dissatisfied Senators, the National Recovery Programme was eventually passed by Labor majorities in the House and Senate. The nation as a whole experienced what New South Wales had experienced four years prior: a clear, if erratic, decline in unemployment accompanied by a steady rise in economic productivity. The distribution of credit to needy firms and individuals added momentum to businesses that were just starting to grow anew after the contractions of 1929, and the flexible flow of currency afforded by the abandonment of the Gold Standard allowed that credit to be repaid at reasonable rates. The government was rewarded for its charity by generous purchases of bonds by the large financial institutions which benefited from the rises in commerce and investment. In addition, the inflated Pound facilitated the raising of both prices and wages; and although these increases were measured in their nominal rather than real values (meaning that many of the associated benefits were cancelled out by inflation), the raises imbued families with a sense of security that led them to increase their spending, further fueling the recovery. [4]

A flyer distributed in Brisbane in February of 1937



Australians:

Do you oppose the SOCIALISATION of your home country?

Do you fear the creeping influence of COMMUNISM upon your God-granted liberties?

Will you DEFEND your homeland against INVASION by uncivilised hordes of Orientals?

Do you believe that three more years of Labor tyranny could mean DISASTER for the
continued welfare of our national heritage?


Join the
CENTRE PARTY
[5]

A free association of PATRIOTIC, CONSERVATIVE, WHITE Australians prepared to FIGHT
against the BOLSHEVISATION of Australia AT ANY COST.


Open meeting with address by Centre Party leader and respected solicitor Eric Campbell
22 February, Yeronga Memorial Park
ALL PATRIOTS WELCOME!


[1] IOTL, Game was appointed. ITTL, due to butterflies, he and Bavin had a falling out and a different man was picked on the spot.
[2] As OTL.
[3] IOTL, Knox died in 1932. Up to this point, everything described is OTL (except for some events happening a year earlier, Knox rather than Game being Governor of NSW, and Joseph Lyons becoming Prime Minister without an election).
[4] The author of this passage is somewhat biased, and doesn't paint a complete picture. While the economy does start to grow anew as Lang's Programme is administered, the lopsided doling out of credit benefits some firms more than others and prevents unemployment from dropping in a stable or reliable way. And while inflation makes it easier for debtors to pay off their debt, it eventually diminishes the effect of Lang's monetary injections as every million pounds is worth less than the last million pounds.
[5] These jackasses. Despite their name, they were anything but centrist: they were a far-right group organized to oppose Lang's Premiership of New South Wales, associated with the arch-conservative New Guard. Most of the members were right-wing businessmen and middle-class conservatives, but the leadership (Eric Campbell included) were died-in-the-wool fascists. They were never taken seriously in the mainstream political scene, were never active outside of New South Wales, never had a candidate win an election, and once Lang was dismissed in OTL they quickly faded into nothingness. Here, however, with Lang as Prime Minister and the Australian right frustrated and fractured, they're enjoying a speedy rise in popularity.
 
Last edited:
[5] These jackasses. Despite their name, they were anything but centrist: they were a far-right group organized to oppose Lang's Premiership of New South Wales, associated with the arch-conservative New Guard. Most of the members were right-wing businessmen and middle-class conservatives, but the leadership (Eric Campbell included) were died-in-the-wool fascists. They were never taken seriously in the mainstream political scene, were never active outside of New South Wales, never had a candidate win an election, and once Lang was dismissed in OTL they quickly faded into nothingness. Here, however, with Lang as Prime Minister and the Australian right frustrated and fractured, they're enjoying a speedy rise in popularity.
To be fair though, given the politics of both OTL and ITTL in the Interwar period, they're one of those groups that simply fell prey to backing fascism and becoming fascistic despite arguably having good intentions before, you know like trying to turn to one thing to counter the other (in which case it's fascism against communism) to somehow solve problems caused by that other; and interestingly yet this is the first time I've ever heard of a far-right group using "centrist" in their name, almost like there is such a thing as a "fascist centrist" (though whenever or not that can exist is another story).
 
To be fair though, given the politics of both OTL and ITTL in the Interwar period, they're one of those groups that simply fell prey to backing fascism and becoming fascistic despite arguably having good intentions before, you know like trying to turn to one thing to counter the other (in which case it's fascism against communism) to somehow solve problems caused by that other; and interestingly yet this is the first time I've ever heard of a far-right group using "centrist" in their name, almost like there is such a thing as a "fascist centrist" (though whenever or not that can exist is another story).
If anything, I think the fact that they used such a misleading name shows that they knew their opinions would not be accepted for what they were, and sought instead to mislead potential supporters into thinking they were political moderates. I can appreciate that not everyone who fell under the spell of fascism during that dark decade was bad, but the leaders of this particular sect clearly were, from my point of view.

I just finished reading Sinclair Lewis’s 1935 book It Can’t Happen Here (in which a Huey Long-esque demagogue wins the U.S. Presidency in 1936 and institutes a fascist regime), and it's noted that the high-ranking leaders of the in-book regime are divided into two main classes: the "idealists", who see fascism "not as perfect, but as the most probable savior" of their country from "slack indolence", "the lack of pride" in their country's youth, and a "slave psychology" that is making their land "a place for sterner men to loot". The rest of the regime's leaders want nothing more than to "grab hold of the entire government and have all the power and applause and salutes, all the money and palaces and willin' women they want". Some of the Centre Party's fascists likely fell into the first camp, but I have little doubt that the top leaders were more closely aligned with the second camp, even if they wouldn't admit it to themselves.
 
Will an earlier Pauline Hanson arise?
If you mean Pauline Hanson specifically, I doubt it--she was born in the '50s, her birth will be butterflied away. If you mean someone like Pauline Hanson, then yes, people of roughly her political persuasion will emerge in the near future. But Joh, he is going to be a major player in Australia's future.
 
A very interesting post on Australia in TTL and you mentioned my relative James Scullin. Will the Centre Party have any influence in Australia before it becomes a part of Oceania and will the Centre Party help cause that?
 
A very interesting post on Australia in TTL and you mentioned my relative James Scullin. Will the Centre Party have any influence in Australia before it becomes a part of Oceania and will the Centre Party help cause that?
You are related to James Scullin? Wow, that’s interesting. I’m supposed to be descended from Jefferson Davis’s second wife, though I’ve no clue how true that is. And as for your question, yes. Yes it will.
 
Yes through my mother. My father`s family is more interesting they were members of the Russian noble family the Cheremeteffs. One of my grandmothers on that side actually left Yalta around the time of Stalin. Are you that`s interesting. Thanks for answering my question.
 

AeroTheZealousOne

Monthly Donor
Got through and caught up with this timeline, might I say I'm in love with it? It's incredibly fun, and I loved that 1936 newsreel that you made as well.

I'm looking forward to more, when you get around to it!
 
Got through and caught up with this timeline, might I say I'm in love with it? It's incredibly fun, and I loved that 1936 newsreel that you made as well.

I'm looking forward to more, when you get around to it!

I always know it’s a good morning when I wake up to see 50+ alerts on my home page. ;)

I’m very glad you like the timeline, the positive feedback I get is what has motivated me to put 18 months’ worth of work into this project. And I’m also glad you liked the newsreel— I spent most of last night perusing @Kanan ‘s work on her New England thread, and I needed something to reduce the inferiority complex it’s given me!
 
Top