Argentine-Canadian War over the Falklands

[GDIS Pathe]

But that is based on iotl Canadian relationship. We talking about Canada being the colonies administration from 1920s. ThAt means there be huge increase in interaction with Canada. The Canadians would of developed them differently and many people would of migrated to northern provinces. There be as good chance jamaica trinidD snd Guiana become provinces. It does not make sense to think interaction or outcome the same. Also the Canadians would of requested at least Ascension Island to gain access to falklands .

For one thing, Guyana was never a part of the West Indies Federation nor was ever mentioned as part of any proposals to expand Canada into the Caribbean, furthermore, the relationship between Canada and the Caribbean would fundamentally be an inequitable one and given the fact that conditions in the West Indies weren't exactly what you'd call good, there would still be an impetus for independence in most of the islands given that there would be limited mobility between the West Indies and the mainlands, territorial rather than provincial status and limited franchise coupled with the general desire for more autonomy and after WWII a path towards independence makes me rather skeptical of Canada both being committed to holding onto the islands and preventing their independence, and also not like Australia gave Papua New Guinea statehood or New Zealand annexed Samoa.

in regards to Ascension in the proposals, no mention is made of giving the Islands to Canada so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

 

[Blue cat]

So if china was to invade and capture Guam an insignificant island in the pacific. The US people would say don’t risk any $ or lives to recapture and liberate its people ?

Sure.. But I think a better analogy is the way the US actually defended and eventually re captured islands such as Guam in WW2.

So, a modest Canadian Garrison would almost certainly have been in place and no doubt would have fought hard but in the end Argentina captures the Falklands. Assuming for what ever reason other nations decline to help Canada by supplying combat forces, Canada musters its existing forces and fights the enemy when and how they can but avoids taking excessive risks (ie probably recaptures South Georgia and maybe fights and more or less wins a naval battle.) Several years later a different RCN and RCAF emerges along with a somewhat less changed Canadian Army and Canada takes the Falklands back, and maybe does some other damage to Argentinean interests along the way. What comes next for Canada is an interesting question. I wonder if such an event would prompt Canada to retain a large standing military capable of replicating such a campaign. I also wonder how most Canadians would view the utility of military alliances if Canada had to re capture its own sovereign territory without help. All in all I suspect the impact on Canada of such a campaign would be much greater than it was for the UK.

Some how I suspect the US would likely get involved on the Canadian side if only to avoid having Canada decide to revisit their alliances.

 

[Blue cat]

That's definitely true. Maybe the Junta will get overconfident and kick off a Beagle War at the same time.

That would be interesting, especially if Canada and Chile openly allied with each other. Imagine Canadian F18`s operating out of Chile, and Canada deploying to Chile at least the other land and air forces they historically planned to send to Norway in the event of WW3.
I am not sure that would be politically possible for Canada but who knows what might happen if both Canada and Chile found themselves at war with Argentina at the same time and no other nations were prepared to get involved.

If things go off the rails and no Allied help is forthcoming, maybe Canada pulls forces out of West Germany and sends them to help Chile invade at least a part of Argentina. Getting the Canadian Army into the fight against Argentina on Argentine soil would be a game changer for the Canadians in such a conflict.

Edit to add, I am inclined to believe the US would one way or another put a stop to such a conflict before Canada managed to redeploy forces from West Germany to Chile. I suspect the Canadians would get the Falklands back.

 

[Alanith]

It’s quite simple. Ultimately the USA needs Canada in a Cold War Gone Hot scenario about a million times more then they need Argentina. At least in the heads of anyone who isn’t Jean Kirkpatrick. The Junta is politely invited to save face by withdrawing. And if they don’t? Well not supporting a NATO member who came asking for help would be a much greater victory for the Soviets then the farcical threat that a stridently anti-communist third world government is suddenly going to start making closer ties to Moscow.

 

[Lusitania]

For one thing, Guyana was never a part of the West Indies Federation nor was ever mentioned as part of any proposals to expand Canada into the Caribbean, furthermore, the relationship between Canada and the Caribbean would fundamentally be an inequitable one and given the fact that conditions in the West Indies weren't exactly what you'd call good, there would still be an impetus for independence in most of the islands given that there would be limited mobility between the West Indies and the mainlands, territorial rather than provincial status and limited franchise coupled with the general desire for more autonomy and after WWII a path towards independence makes me rather skeptical of Canada both being committed to holding onto the islands and preventing their independence, and also not like Australia gave Papua New Guinea statehood or New Zealand annexed Samoa.

in regards to Ascension in the proposals, no mention is made of giving the Islands to Canada so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .

Well actually it did, the transfer and discussion was about Canada - british West Indies Union and never included new found land , Bermuda or Falklands islands

https://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/2989/D_Hastings_Paula_a_2010.pdf

It’s a very detailed research paper and I suggest people read it. Falklands never once mentioned and the idea for Canada was the transfer of the British West Indies to Canada.

As for definition what encompasses West Indies please refere to definition below.

British West Indies - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The only territory that might be in dispute but one Canada would of demanded too was Bermuda.

Therefore Canada never requested or Britain ever offer Falklands islands to Canada.

 

[Blue cat]

It’s quite simple. Ultimately the USA needs Canada in a Cold War Gone Hot scenario about a million times more then they need Argentina. At least in the heads of anyone who isn’t Jean Kirkpatrick. The Junta is politely invited to save face by withdrawing. And if they don’t? Well not supporting a NATO member who came asking for help would be a much greater victory for the Soviets then the farcical threat that a stridently anti-communist third world government is suddenly going to start making closer ties to Moscow.

Yep.. This is probably the most likely outcome.. In the 1980`s Canada had a reasonable amount of leverage. Even with out playing games vis a vis NORAD, Canada could probably quietly mention the possibility of re arranging their NATO contributions to help them prosecute an ongoing war with Argentina and I suspect the US would have quickly helped bring this conflict to a favorable outcome vis a vis Canada.

Edit to add:
I can sort of envision a conversation where the Argentine Junta tries to explain to the US how helpful Argentina is in the war against Communism and the US lists the tanks, guns, ships, air craft etc that Canada has deployed outside of its own territory along with full time professional soldiers, sailors and air crew to man them to also oppose Communism. The US then comments that the Canadians are about to re think their defense arrangements and focus their energies on Argentina going forwards and how the Canadians are starting to realize that they really should spend at least another percent of their GDP on defense.

 

[Ming777]

Also, consider that the F-5 Freedom Fighter was adapted from a Northrop project N-156 for a small jet capable of taking off from escort carriers. So there may be ATL options for a carrier based aircraft.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

That would be interesting, especially if Canada and Chile openly allied with each other. Imagine Canadian F18`s operating out of Chile, and Canada deploying to Chile at least the other land and air forces they historically planned to send to Norway in the event of WW3.
I am not sure that would be politically possible for Canada but who knows what might happen if both Canada and Chile found themselves at war with Argentina at the same time and no other nations were prepared to get involved.

If things go off the rails and no Allied help is forthcoming, maybe Canada pulls forces out of West Germany and sends them to help Chile invade at least a part of Argentina. Getting the Canadian Army into the fight against Argentina on Argentine soil would be a game changer for the Canadians in such a conflict.

Edit to add, I am inclined to believe the US would one way or another put a stop to such a conflict before Canada managed to redeploy forces from West Germany to Chile. I suspect the Canadians would get the Falklands back.

The unholy alliance between Pinochet and Trudeau

 

[Blue cat]

The unholy alliance between Pinochet and Trudeau

Yeah maybe Canada openly siding with Chile in any way shape or form in the early 1980`s is highly implausible, but I also believe Canada having to re capture its sovereign territory without the help of any of its allies is also implausible.

 

[Lusitania]

After reading more about both the Canadian positions and British attitudes I do not see the British ever offering to transferring Falklands and Canada ever wanting it. The Caribbean yes including Bermuda and Newfoundland but nothing south of that. During the 1920s right after war would if been the most logical as the British were under harsh economic pressure due war expenditures and the transferring of the colonies along with part of BN ships to safeguard them would of reduced their burden while at same time maintaining them within the empire.

As for the Falklands there would of needed to been a different POD for that to happen. The people of Falklands saw themselves and still continue as British. Following WW2 the facade of Canada being part of empire be gone and any transfer would of resulted in protest from Argentina and rising tensions. So if they were transferred (meaning people in Falklands agreed to it) it would of required Canadian military presence in area to safeguard such a remote territory.

Therefore the POD is highly unlikely even in Alt History.

 

[Blue cat]

After reading more about both the Canadian positions and British attitudes I do not see the British ever offering to transferring Falklands and Canada ever wanting it. The Caribbean yes including Bermuda and Newfoundland but nothing south of that. During the 1920s right after war would if been the most logical as the British were under harsh economic pressure due war expenditures and the transferring of the colonies along with part of BN ships to safeguard them would of reduced their burden while at same time maintaining them within the empire.

As for the Falklands there would of needed to been a different POD for that to happen. The people of Falklands saw themselves and still continue as British. Following WW2 the facade of Canada being part of empire be gone and any transfer would of resulted in protest from Argentina and rising tensions. So if they were transferred (meaning people in Falklands agreed to it) it would of required Canadian military presence in area to safeguard such a remote territory.

Therefore the POD is highly unlikely even in Alt History.

That makes sense. Thanks for digging into this.

 

[juanml82]

The Falklanders weren't given full British citizenship until 1983, so they wouldn't necesarilly be Canadian citizens ITTL.
Also, why would an ATL war wait until the 1980s? Along with the Falklands there are the Georgias, Sandwich and, before the Antarctic Treaty, the claims on Antarctica. If the naval balance of forces favors Argentina at some point (maybe before WW2?), any Argentine government might seize the initiative and take the islands by force. It could be seen as a way to shore up political support in the aftermath of the 1929 crisis.

 

[Lusitania]

The Falklanders weren't given full British citizenship until 1983, so they wouldn't necesarilly be Canadian citizens ITTL.
Also, why would an ATL war wait until the 1980s? Along with the Falklands there are the Georgias, Sandwich and, before the Antarctic Treaty, the claims on Antarctica. If the naval balance of forces favors Argentina at some point (maybe before WW2?), any Argentine government might seize the initiative and take the islands by force. It could be seen as a way to shore up political support in the aftermath of the 1929 crisis.

Yes but Canada is not Britain and any territory that would of become canadian would of resulted in its residents becoming Canadian. That just one if the reasons Canadá and Britain are different and that nothing that happen while under Britain would apply to Canada.

 

[Ship]

The Falklanders weren't given full British citizenship until 1983, so they wouldn't necesarilly be Canadian citizens ITTL.
Also, why would an ATL war wait until the 1980s? Along with the Falklands there are the Georgias, Sandwich and, before the Antarctic Treaty, the claims on Antarctica. If the naval balance of forces favors Argentina at some point (maybe before WW2?), any Argentine government might seize the initiative and take the islands by force. It could be seen as a way to shore up political support in the aftermath of the 1929 crisis.

1929 is pre-Statute of Westminster. So every bit of Canadian territory still ultimately belongs to the UK. Invading a Canadian Falklands in 1929 would be much more likely to get a response from the RN than in the 1980s.

 

[juanml82]

1929 is pre-Statute of Westminster. So every bit of Canadian territory still ultimately belongs to the UK. Invading a Canadian Falklands in 1929 would be much more likely to get a response from the RN than in the 1980s.

The mid 1930s then

 

[coffeebreakcigarette]

POD: After WWI, the UK considered transferring its Western Hemispheric colonies to Canada. Most discussion on this site talks about the potential of Canada having some Caribbean territory. However, the UK also considered transferring the Falkland Islands to Canada as well. Suppose this happens. Canada now inherits the Falkland Islands ownership dispute.

Galtieri will likely view Canada as just as weak an opponent as the UK and would probably still invade. Canada's prime minister in OTL in this period was Pierre Trudeau. Assuming Trudeau is still prime minister, how does he respond to the Argentine invasion? How does this affect Canadian politics? Can Canada take it back by itself?

I do see the USA taking a much more pro-Canada line than it was pro-UK in OTL because this is a war between two Western hemisphere countries, so no Monroe Doctrine issues.

@Super_Cool2 was this possibility even considered or are you just a fan of Kaiserreich? 🖖

 

[coffeebreakcigarette]

The unholy alliance between Pinochet and Trudeau

So crap basically. Like father like son.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

The mid 1930s then

Given how the RN used the Falklands as a refueling station in the 30s and how close the UK's ties were to Canada in this period the Argentines would likely see the Battlecruiser Squadron along with a couple QEs or the Nelsons, a couple of the follies with a Squadron or two of cruisers and a few Flotillas worth of destroyers to escort them showing up to contest their invasion.

 

[juanml82]

Given how the RN used the Falklands as a refueling station in the 30s and how close the UK's ties were to Canada in this period the Argentines would likely see the Battlecruiser Squadron along with a couple QEs or the Nelsons, a couple of the follies with a Squadron or two of cruisers and a few Flotillas worth of destroyers to escort them showing up to contest their invasion.

If it's solely about refueling, that's nothing the Argentine government can't make a deal with the UK - Argentina was also close to the UK in that period. If it's about strong arming Canada, that's another matter.

 

[Ship]

If it's solely about refueling, that's nothing the Argentine government can't make a deal with the UK - Argentina was also close to the UK in that period. If it's about strong arming Canada, that's another matter.

It wouldn’t just be about re-fueling. By the mid 30s, Britain is once again giving Germany serious side eye and is starting to plan for another war. A war in which it will be very much in need of Canada’s assistance. Assistance Canada may not be inclined to give if Britain hung it out to dry just three or four years earlier.