Argentine-Canadian War over the Falklands

[Super_Cool2]

POD: After WWI, the UK considered transferring its Western Hemispheric colonies to Canada. Most discussion on this site talks about the potential of Canada having some Caribbean territory. However, the UK also considered transferring the Falkland Islands to Canada as well. Suppose this happens. Canada now inherits the Falkland Islands ownership dispute.

Galtieri will likely view Canada as just as weak an opponent as the UK and would probably still invade. Canada's prime minister in OTL in this period was Pierre Trudeau. Assuming Trudeau is still prime minister, how does he respond to the Argentine invasion? How does this affect Canadian politics? Can Canada take it back by itself?

I do see the USA taking a much more pro-Canada line than it was pro-UK in OTL because this is a war between two Western hemisphere countries, so no Monroe Doctrine issues.

 

[Blue cat]

POD: After WWI, the UK considered transferring its Western Hemispheric colonies to Canada. Most discussion on this site talks about the potential of Canada having some Caribbean territory. However, the UK also considered transferring the Falkland Islands to Canada as well. Suppose this happens. Canada now inherits the Falkland Islands ownership dispute.

Galtieri will likely view Canada as just as weak an opponent as the UK and would probably still invade. Canada's prime minister in OTL in this period was Pierre Trudeau. Assuming Trudeau is still prime minister, how does he respond to the Argentine invasion? How does this affect Canadian politics? Can Canada take it back by itself?

I do see the USA taking a much more pro-Canada line than it was pro-UK in OTL because this is a war between two Western hemisphere countries, so no Monroe Doctrine issues.

Wow....

Assuming a Canadian Armed Force more or less the same as what Canada historically had in the early 1980's I don't see Canada taking the islands back by themselves.

Maybe they could get an SSK into the area from time to time and cause a bit of trouble.

Taking back South Georgia might be possible if the Canadians were prepared to risk loosing some or all of the forces involved. I suppose the Canadians could put together a task force of their more modern Destroyers that had sea sparrow SAM`s and 5 inch guns perhaps two of their UNrep ships that IIRC could each carry a few Sea King helicopters and land troops on South Georgia by Helicopter. I am not sure if their CP140`s (Canadian P3 Orion) could fly the long range missions that the RAF nimrods did, but perhaps the Canadians could have added some ability to refuel them in flight from their 707 tankers. I do not believe Canada had any naval SSM`s in 1980 which might be a problem.

I suppose given enough time and motivation Canada could buy and modernize a USN Essex Class carrier, a few missile armed escorts, a few amphibs and deploy their newly arriving CF18`s from the carrier and take the Falklands back in several years if the political will to do so existed I suspect the USN would likely make the necessary ships available if the Canadians were prepared to pay for them. Edit to add, I have my doubts the Canadians would have done this but I suppose it is by no means impossible.

 

[Wendell]

Was South Georgia to have gone to Canada too?

Also, if Belize is Canadian, is there any chance of Guatemala getting in on this?

 

[Blue cat]

Was South Georgia to have gone to Canada too?

Also, if Belize is Canadian, is there any chance of Guatemala getting in on this?

I suspect if Belize was Canadian in the 1980`s the Canadians would have likely considered the possibility of having to defend it. A reasonable army garrison, and maybe even a detachment of fighter bombers might have been on hand. (That might have been a useful role for some of the Canadian CF5`s ) I suspect there would have been a reasonable degree of enthusiasm within Canada at the time to both defend Belize from and if needed curb stomp an invasion force from what was seen by some as an un savory right wing dictatorship. I suspect some of the forces that IOTL were earmarked for deployment to Norway or for UN service might have been used for this purpose if Canada owned Belize in the 1980`s.

I suspect Guatemala would have stayed out of any such conflict with Canada.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Canada get's it's own tropic paradise in the form of Belize?
Sweet. Too bad this isn't OTL, or I might be living there already.
As a Canadian I would be all for a Canadian Belize, but not the Falklands or South Georgia because they are literally worthless rocky islands that cost more to defend then they are worth.
A Canadian Bermuda would be nice as well, along with the Canadian Carribean Territory.

One question though, would Jamaica be transferred to Canadian ownership as well?
Usain Bolt, record breaking Canadian sprinter.

 

[BlackDragon98]

I suspect if Belize was Canadian in the 1980`s the Canadians would have likely considered the possibility of having to defend it. A reasonable army garrison, and maybe even a detachment of fighter bombers might have been on hand. (That might have been a useful role for some of the Canadian CF5`s ) I suspect there would have been a reasonable degree of enthusiasm within Canada at the time to both defend Belize from and if needed curb stomp an invasion force from what was seen by some as an un savory right wing dictatorship. I suspect some of the forces that IOTL were earmarked for deployment to Norway or for UN service might have been used for this purpose if Canada owned Belize in the 1980`s.

I suspect Guatemala would have stayed out of any such conflict with Canada.

Why on earth would anyone want to go to war with Canada?

 

[Super_Cool2]

I suppose given enough time and motivation Canada could buy and modernize a USN Essex Class carrier, a few missile armed escorts, a few amphibs and deploy their newly arriving CF18`s from the carrier and take the Falklands back in several years if the political will to do so existed I suspect the USN would likely make the necessary ships available if the Canadians were prepared to pay for them. Edit to add, I have my doubts the Canadians would have done this but I suppose it is by no means impossible.

Years? If it would take that long, Trudeau might let the Argentines have it.

He had a good relationship with Latin America, including Cuba in OTL. The Falklands War may be butterflied away if Canada is more willing than the UK to let them go, given the circumstances.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Years? If it would take that long, Trudeau might let the Argentines have it.

He had a good relationship with Latin America, including Cuba in OTL. The Falklands War may be butterflied away if Canada is more willing than the UK to let them go, given the circumstances.

Trudeau would probably sell them to Argentina.
No sense in wasting lives and money over a few windswept rocky islands on the other end of the world.

 

[Blue cat]

Years? If it would take that long, Trudeau might let the Argentines have it.

He had a good relationship with Latin America, including Cuba in OTL. The Falklands War may be butterflied away if Canada is more willing than the UK to let them go, given the circumstances.

Perhaps, although I have my doubts that Canada would be enthused about letting go settled territory that had inhabitants that did not want to leave Canada (and I suspect the inhabitants of the Falkland Islands in this fictional alternative time line would not have wanted to leave Canada.) I suspect the Citizenship of the inhabitants (ie. were some or all of them considered to be Canadians) might play a significant role in determining what the Canadian government does with far flung territories such as the Falklands in this fictional alternative time line.

I have my doubts that a Canadian Government would be able or willing to concede the unwilling loss of territory settled by Canadians who wanted to remain part of Canada outside of a peace settlement following a third world war or similar circumstances, especially if the territory was taken by a non super power.

 

[Blue cat]

Trudeau would probably sell them to Argentina.
No sense in wasting lives and money over a few windswept rocky islands on the other end of the world.

I really don`t know what would have happened. While I suspect most Canadian governments would have wanted to be rid of the potential problem (preferably without any unpleasantness) I have my doubts they would have been prepared to hand over settled sovereign territory if the local inhabitants were not in agreement. Selling settled sovereign Canadian territory might also been seen as setting a bad precedent vis a vis other boundary disputes. I think a lot would depend on the exact status of the Falkland Islands and their inhabitants vis a vis the rest of Canada.

Edit to add, also letting parts of Canada go might also have implications re the Quebec Sovereignty issue vis a vis Quebec potentially leaving Canada.

 

[Dilvish]

How long would it take Canada to assemble an invasion force? No aircraft carriers, no amphibious ships. Could Canada maintain a war footing for the length of time needed to get to the liberation?

 

[BlackDragon98]

I really don`t know what would have happened. While I suspect most Canadian governments would have wanted to be rid of the potential problem (preferably without any unpleasantness) I have my doubts they would have been prepared to hand over settled sovereign territory if the local inhabitants were not in agreement. Selling settled sovereign Canadian territory might also been seen as setting a bad precedent vis a vis other boundary disputes. I think a lot would depend on the exact status of the Falkland Islands and their inhabitants vis a vis the rest of Canada.

Edit to add, also letting parts of Canada go might also have implications re the Quebec Sovereignty issue vis a vis Quebec potentially leaving Canada.

Fair point.
But if Argentina did attack the Canadian Falklands, it would instantly earn them the ire of much of the world, given Canada's reputation.
The best way for Canada to defend the Falklands is to lease part of it out as a military base to the USA.
That way, Argentina would never dare attack.

 

[brokenrobot00]

Canada with expanded territory of this nature would likely have an expanded military to go with it so it's hard to say how they'd respond to a threat of this nature as in a world like this they might have an extremely large or even more effective military. There's also the chance that an attack on the Falklands might lead to the expansion of article five in the NATO treaty to include the Southern Hemisphere, if that happens Argentina loses pretty quickly.

 

[Blue cat]

How long would it take Canada to assemble an invasion force? No aircraft carriers, no amphibious ships. Could Canada maintain a war footing for the length of time needed to get to the liberation?

In terms of land forces Canada had a Brigade Group in the 1980`s that was nominally expected to deploy to Norway in a WW3 setting and I believe Canada had other light infantry forces that were reasonably available as well in the 1980`s.

The Navy probably could have found a few destroyers and an UnRep ship or two I suspect without to much trouble to perhaps try and re take South Georgia. Maybe a month or so might have been needed to pull things together. The airforce had a few 707 tankers and plans to fly jet fighters to Norway in a crisis. Maybe some of that (ie the tankers) could have been leveraged to at least get maritime patrol aircraft into the South Atlantic from time to time if a way could have been worked out to refuel the CP140s. This presumably would have required the use of Ascension Island as a base.

Maybe they could have planed to re take South Georgia and try and lure the Argentine navy into trying to take them back where Canadian SSKs and maybe fighter bombers (if a run way could have been built somehow on South Georgia) could have tried to attrit the Argentine Navy in a set piece battle I suspect that might not have worked out very well.

In the long run I suspect if Canada had really wanted to they could have built up a force in the 1980`s to take the Falklands back. The CF18`s had already been ordered, ex USN Carriers and other ships were presumably available etc.. Buying modern torpedoes for the SSKs, SSMs and CIWS etc for the navy, etc might have been able to happen quite quickly if the US (and perhaps the UK) was a willing participant. I seem to recall prior to GW1 at least one older Canadian warship was retrofitted with equipment that had been intended for other ships.

In so far as Canada maintained a Brigade Group and Several squadrons of Fighter bombers in West Germany in the 1980s I suspect the Canadians could have found the needed man power to build up a suitable force to take back the Falklands if needed and or they were so inclined. I do not believe Canada would have really needed to go on a war footing to do this but I suspect it would have taken years.

 

[Blue cat]

Canada with expanded territory of this nature would likely have an expanded military to go with it so it's hard to say how they'd respond to a threat of this nature as in a world like this they might have an extremely large or even more effective military. There's also the chance that an attack on the Falklands might lead to the expansion of article five in the NATO treaty to include the Southern Hemisphere, if that happens Argentina loses pretty quickly.

Yeah.. That being said I can see Canada taking the threat of an attack on Belize for example somewhat seriously. I have my doubts they would have taken the threat of the Falklands being taken by force as seriously. If there was a perceived threat I suspect Canada might have had to chose between having land forces in West Germany during the Cold War or having a Navy that could plausibly defend and or re take the Falklands but it is hard to know what might have happened in a fictional alternate time line

 

[InvaderX]

Assuming a Canadian Armed Force more or less the same as what Canada historically had in the early 1980's I don't see Canada taking the islands back by themselves.

This can't really be assumed, though - Canada having so many overseas possessions in the Caribbean and elsewhere would necessitate, at the very least, a stronger Royal Canadian Navy.

However I don't think that Canada would be fighting this war alone - Canada is a globally very well-respected country and we don't have the same history as an imperial power that the UK does. There would be a lot more condemnation and a lot less sympathy for Argentina in this timeline than OTL.

 

[Blue cat]

This can't really be assumed, though - Canada having so many overseas possessions in the Caribbean and elsewhere would necessitate, at the very least, a stronger Royal Canadian Navy.

However I don't think that Canada would be fighting this war alone - Canada is a globally very well-respected country and we don't have the same history as an imperial power that the UK does. There would be a lot more condemnation and a lot less sympathy for Argentina in this timeline than OTL.

Sure one can speculate endlessly. I can see Canada having a Navy of Frigates and Destroyers and maybe an extra UNrep ship that could look after things in and around the Caribbean and a Canadian equivalent to the land and air forces that the UK maintained in the 1980`s in Belize is probably likely. I am less convinced Canada would have maintained aircraft carriers, amphibs, guided missile destroyers, SSN`s etc on the scale that the RN did in the 1980s when they retook the Falklands. Not having SSN`s for example could be a significant handicap for the Canadians in this fictional time line.

 

[RelativeGalaxy7]

If Canada is at the point where it is taking over massed overseas colonies/areas, it's going to have a much, much larger navy in order to protect such areas. It's not really realistic to speculate heavily unless you have a present timeline and navy before all of this.

 

[KaiserWilhelm]

Yeah PET prob isn’t the PM, and Canada probably has a stronger navy and AF than OTL, so I would expect a joint Canadian-UK operation to knock out the Argentines

 

[Lusitania]

In the scenario you describe Canada would of inherited a huge number of territories in the carribean. Newfoundland on its east coast. Guiana on the South American continent over half a dozen island in the lesser Antilles plus Jamaica and several other islands such as Bermuda, Bahamas along with British Honduras as it was known then. For the Canadian to also get Falklands it would of needed access or control to Ascension island to make sure it had access to Falklands.

Following this we would of had a very different Canada one that could of incorporated these regions into Canada with majority of them becoming Canadian provinces or it could of maintained a similar attitude as Britain and kept them as colonies with limited to no access to Canada. Eventually majoritY not feeling welcome in Canada would of become independent like iotl.

in 1st scenario we would of had a much larger Canadian military with a larger navy including air craft carriers. This version of Canada would of granted Canadian citizenship to all residents and developed them into provinces. We could see at least 3-5 Canadian provinces in the Caribbean plus several territories such as Falklands and Bermuda.

the relationship between Canada and USA as well as other Caribbean and Latin American states be completely different. The US would look at Canada not in same way (feeling surrounded by Canada along North, Atlantic and in south.)

we cannot think same people be in power or that politics and attitudes be the same. It’s military have to be in the 200,000 range if not higher since it would not be relying on US for its protection and it would not have as close relations latin America since there would be illegal emigration, drugs coming directly into Canada, border and geopolitical issues that would cause frictions.

Therefore any attacks on the Falklands would be viewed as attack on Canada and they would behave similarly to Britain. Chances are the Argentina invasion be opposed by Canadian military units on island causing further anger in Canada.

now if we are discussing scenario 2 in which majority if not all colonial islands are independent then I not sure it would even control Falklands at that time. It would not have the military might as Britain did to liberate them.