An Independent Incan Empire with Petosí

[Coqui]

From what I've read, the Inca were among the best nourished people in the world at the time. It was by no means an "equal" society, but it was one that seemed to take good care of its subjects. Part of it was due to the environment requiring a lot of big picture management to be productive. When the Spanish came, it ushered in an era of particularly horrific exploitation and extraction of silver.

So I'm working on a story where a successful Norse settlement in the New World and unsuccessful late 15th century European attempts at settling the new world results in a timeline where colonization of the Americas never happens on a large scale. Portuguese and other European ships discover the empire en route to China in the 16th century, and are allowed to regularly stop, resupply, etc.; maybe set up factories and trade. Ninan Cuyochic doesn't die of smallpox or even contract it, Fransisco Pizarro never comes to conquer, and the empire stays united, but how much better would the Inca rulers actually be?

The Great Bullion Famine wasn't completely resolved without new world silver, and Potosí's vast silver deposits are going to be discovered eventually. Would this be another another case of "the resource curse"? I mean, given how Inca society was, after it became clear that silver was very valuable to Europeans, it would be made a state resource, so the emperor would arrange trade deals with European merchants directly. Could having a source of wealth and power less dependent on their people make the Inca just as negligent of the common subject's food security or just as exploitative in silver extraction? Also, what would be bought with the silver? European guns and Chinese luxury goods? Would they be able to put down the ensuing rebellions as effectively as the Spanish did? If not, what's likely to take their place? (I suppose regime changes often don't actually change the type of regime that a war-torn country may have)

 

[twovultures]

IIRC, the first 20 years of the exploitation of Potosi was done using indigenous know-how, specifically using a kind of kiln to smelt the paydirt (literal dirt!) on the side of the mountain and extract silver. OTL, the exploitation of the region became more resource-intensive and brutal after that, with as the easy to access silver was exhausted, and the Spanish introduced mines and mercury amalgamation. I strongly recommend the book Potosi; The Silver city that Changed the World which draws on a lot of primary resources to tell the story of the city and its many colorful characters.

ITTL, the Inca Empire probably would be interested in European goods-most likely horses and firearms, since those impressed the Inca IOTL-and would be willing to trade silver. However, after the initial silver rush, the Inca would probably not enforce mining with the same brutality as the Spanish. This isn't necessarily because the Inca elite cared about the workers, it's because a) if they direct labor away from from farming, they become food insecure themselves and lose access to traditional forms of wealth that the common folk create and b) they don't necessarily have the technology to get silver from the ore that they mine, as amalgamation was introduced from Europe.

So, after a 20 year silver rush, trade winds down. After initially getting guns and horses (they will be able to bribe their way past any trade restrictions) the Inca will start to work on manufacturing gunpowder and firearms-how successful these attempts would be is up to you. Trade after the initial silver rush is much lower. If it happens at all, it will involve shipping raw ore out of the empire to European-controlled areas for amalgamation. The Inca may or may not end up suffering a 'resources curse', but due to the different pressures and motivations of the Inca elite, there will not be an exploitation of people or the environment on the level that we saw in the Spanish empire IOTL.

 

[Coqui]

b) they don't necessarily have the technology to get silver from the ore that they mine, as amalgamation was introduced from Europe.

So is it safe to say the Inca wouldn't get Europeans on board to try to maximize their output and/or Europeans would not want to give up trade secrets, even if it meant getting more silver?

 

[Coqui]

So, after a 20 year silver rush, trade winds down. After initially getting guns and horses (they will be able to bribe their way past any trade restrictions) the Inca will start to work on manufacturing gunpowder and firearms-how successful these attempts would be is up to you. Trade after the initial silver rush is much lower.

Any predictions on what a more modernized Inca empire would then do? I suppose they were built around a very specific climate and may not be as interested in expanding, manifest destiny style.

 

[GameBawesome]

Any predictions on what a more modernized Inca empire would then do?

If I had to guess, possibly the upper-class elite will adopt European customs and culture, like clothing, due to contact with European merchants or missionaries, while blending into Inca Culture.

Meanwhile, the lower and rural classes may remain relatively, cultural wise.

Also, Christianity may enter the Inca Empire due to missionaries coming in, and maybe even the rulers may adopt it for advantages (Like not having dead people inherit land)

 

[Gwyain]

Trade after the initial silver rush is much lower. If it happens at all, it will involve shipping raw ore out of the empire to European-controlled areas for amalgamation. The Inca may or may not end up suffering a 'resources curse', but due to the different pressures and motivations of the Inca elite, there will not be an exploitation of people or the environment on the level that we saw in the Spanish empire IOTL.

I'm not terribly convinced that a raw ore trade would last long. Huancavelica has one of the largest Cinnabar mines in the world and is itself Incan. If they learn or independetly develop mercury amalgamation then they can extract raw silver significantly easier, all at home.

 

[EMT]

So is it safe to say the Inca wouldn't get Europeans on board to try to maximize their output and/or Europeans would not want to give up trade secrets, even if it meant getting more silver?

Necessity has a way of changing things. Even under an extremely hostile first contact, the Inca would be unable to exist as a fortress of solitude forever

 

[Coqui]

Necessity has a way of changing things. Even under an extremely hostile first contact, the Inca would be unable to exist as a fortress of solitude forever

What do you think is more likely? Do you think they may end up doing what the Spanish did in our timeline?

 

[Pesterfield]

they don't necessarily have the technology to get silver from the ore that they mine, as amalgamation was introduced from Europe.

What about smelting, that's how the Inca did it before amalgamation was introduced.

 

[Arkenfolm]

The Great Bullion Famine wasn't completely resolved without new world silver, and Potosí's vast silver deposits are going to be discovered eventually. Would this be another another case of "the resource curse"? I mean, given how Inca society was, after it became clear that silver was very valuable to Europeans, it would be made a state resource, so the emperor would arrange trade deals with European merchants directly. Could having a source of wealth and power less dependent on their people make the Inca just as negligent of the common subject's food security or just as exploitative in silver extraction? Also, what would be bought with the silver? European guns and Chinese luxury goods? Would they be able to put down the ensuing rebellions as effectively as the Spanish did? If not, what's likely to take their place? (I suppose regime changes often don't actually change the type of regime that a war-torn country may have)

They would buy pretty much everything they need, from European and Asian luxury goods to horses to guns to European experts and mercenaries. The latter would be particularly important in modernising the state institutions and especially their military. Epidemic is going to strike and kill a lot of people (probably 30-50%, which is a lot better than OTL granted) and depress the fertility rate for a century or two more, which will create instability they'll need to deal with. I also suspect there'd be a lot of conflict with natives on their eastern borders, probably spurred on by conquistadors seeking to get rich raiding the Inca or on the part of the natives themselves looking for valuable goods to trade with Europeans/each other. Either way, a good stock of guns and European mercenaries to train soldiers is very important.

ITTL, the Inca Empire probably would be interested in European goods-most likely horses and firearms, since those impressed the Inca IOTL-and would be willing to trade silver. However, after the initial silver rush, the Inca would probably not enforce mining with the same brutality as the Spanish. This isn't necessarily because the Inca elite cared about the workers, it's because a) if they direct labor away from from farming, they become food insecure themselves and lose access to traditional forms of wealth that the common folk create and b) they don't necessarily have the technology to get silver from the ore that they mine, as amalgamation was introduced from Europe.

If you have 20 years or so of a silver rush, then that's enough time to have a local elite which is both connected to European trade and dependent on wealth from silver (which given the Inca command economy, might as well be gained from smuggling). That's a powerbase which may be spurred to revolt if their interests aren't properly represented, and worse, it's one which would have an easy time hiring European mercenaries and obtaining guns and cannon.

Basically it's hard to predict what the Inca would do because like in every westernising state, there would be some interests favouring increasing trade with Europeans and some interests favouring a more conservative path.

 

[Coqui]

It seems as though they were pretty outward looking, since South American balsa vessels were seen in Mexico. They may want to use the silver to get some ships and invest in making their own. Of course, wanting to trade more an willingness to work your people so hard they maim themselves to avoid work are two different things, but the Inca might be a proactive participant in world trade