For the moment we must leave Demetrios in Kabul, since with his storyline and the 'Rhomania in the Little Ice Age' plot we are moving towards the end of the 1650s, and there is the storyline with Germany, the Triunes, and the Lady Elizabeth that has been held in abeyance for quite a long time. It was 1648 when we last looked there. So it is to there we return. My intent is to continue this story thread from that point through to its end before returning. When we really dive into 'Rhomania in the Little Ice Age', I want to be able to concentrate entirely on that, without any other dangling plot threads to distract. It has been quite a while, so much of the beginning of this update is effectively a status report as to how things stand in Germany with the resumption of that narrative in late 1648.
The Lands of Germany (and Neighbors), 1648-49:
By the end of 1648, Henri II of the Triple Monarchy and his ally/client Holy Roman Emperor Philip Sigismund of Hesse & Brunswick (to use the common shorthand for his direct landholdings) were triumphant throughout all the lands of the Holy Roman Empire. Henri II controlled all Imperial lands west of the Rhine, with garrisons scattered throughout much of the east-bank Rhineland and further afield. Joint Triune-Imperial forces occupied the former Wittelsbach lands of Wurttemberg and Bavaria.
The eastern reaches of the Holy Roman Empire host more formidable players, but none seem very threatening as they stand. The most established is Karl von Hohenzollern, eldest son of Archbishop Ferdinand ‘Bone-Breaker’, a veteran of fighting both in Bulgaria and along the Rhine. He has been Duke-Elector since 1636, a position he owed to Ottokar of Bohemia. That he owes nothing to Philip Sigismund and Henri could be problematic, but Brandenburg is materially the least impressive of the eastern powers despite its electoral title. Large in size but sparsely populated for said size, it lacks natural frontiers or impressive material resources.
More imposing is Saxony, ruled by the new Duke Leopold von Habsburg, who has only been on the throne since early 1646. Saxony is appreciably smaller than Brandenburg, but with nearly three times the population, a respectable financial apparatus largely recovered from the 1630s, and its manufacturing development is one of the highest in all of Christendom. However, Duke Leopold owes his new rank directly to Philip Sigismund and Henri II.
The most powerful is King Stephan VII of Hungary and Stephan I of Bohemia, who rules the two kingdoms in personal union since the extinction of Ottokar’s line in 1642. Yet ruling a composite state is always difficult, as Hungary and Bohemia share only the reigning monarch and nothing else, and both states have been heavily damaged first by the strain of war in Rhomania and then the loss of Saxony to Triune-Imperial forces. If attacked he could be a formidable adversary in defending his lands, but shows no apparent interest in threatening Philip and Henri provided he is left alone.
The only fly in the ointment is the escape of the Lady Elizabeth, sister of the former Emperor Theodor, along with her son Karl Manfred, now fourteen years old, as well as the Duke and his heir to the Duchy of Pomerania. That Elizabeth and Karl Manfred had even managed to get from Bavaria to Pomerania showed that the rulers of Hungary-Bohemia, Saxony, and Brandenburg were, if not hostile to Philip and Henri, not going to do anything to aid the duo either.
Karl Manfred may be approaching the age of manhood, but physically he is not impressive. A small and sickly child, the stress of the circumstances of his upbreaking, with his father killed during his infancy and his lands and life constantly under threat, has had a serious effect on his development. Observers repeatedly comment that he looks more like a boy of ten rather than fourteen, with his delicate and pale features sparking frequent references to femininity. A few remarked that he bore a strong resemblance to his cousin the Emperor Herakleios III.
Lady Elizabeth’s plan is to appeal to the Russians for aid, although there is the question of what exactly the Russians would gain by doing so. For assistance, she befriends Stenka Razin, who had played a major role in the Zemsky Sobor that had reunified the Russian principalities. Now he serves as a delegate for Scythia in the Grand Veche, the lower house of the new Russian legislature. In his new role he continues his prominence, famous for his oratory. Elizabeth wins his support (although propaganda claims from Philip Sigismund that this was in return for sexual favors is wholly false) and gains a powerful ally.
Stenka Razin informs Elizabeth who she needs to woo and how, the arguments and presentations to make that will get her the most sympathy. To the Novgorodians she emphasizes the revenge for the insults heaped on them by the English, who had been so offended at the very thought of treating Russians as equals receiving reciprocal trading privileges. To the Pronsky, she emphasizes this as a way to assert newfound Russian strength and unity, to demonstrate power and eliminate Russia’s lackluster reputation stemming from its poor performance in the Great Northern War in the mid-1500s. To the Lithuanians she emphasizes the danger of increasing Triune pressure on eastern Europe, approaching the principality’s western border.
To sustain herself in Moscow, Elizabeth is dependent to a great deal on charity. In her flight she had sewn jewels and money into her clothes, which help some, but that is not sustainable. However, she has some impressive donors, including the new Tsar Basil I as well as a loan provided via the Spanish ambassador from King Ferdinand. While the Spanish monarch is unable and unwilling to challenge Henri directly, he is willing to cause him mischief on the side.
It is not until after she has been in Moscow for over two months that she is formally presented in a joint session of the Grand Veche and Senate, but the time has been well spent meeting with individuals. Still, she knows she needs to put on a good performance, and she does that spectacularly. This is a far cry from the uncharismatic and hated young Elizabeth in Constantinople.
One of the most obvious double standards is that the physical appearance of a woman is considered far more important than that of a man. Elizabeth knows this, but also knows how to use it. She is a beautiful woman, and she attires herself with subdued but high-quality cosmetics and clothing; she is a woman seeking aid, but she is not destitute. Beside her is her son Karl Manfred, his slow development coming in useful for once. The clothing and appearance had been carefully planned by Elizabeth to appeal to common Russian presentations of the Virgin and Child (Karl Manfred is admittedly on the older side for playing the Child). It is a display designed to appeal to the Russians’ chivalric and Christian sensibilities. What man, if he wished to count himself as one, could turn down the plea of a beautiful woman, thrown out from her home, to restore her and her innocent child to what is rightfully theirs, especially if that woman bears a striking resemblance to the Mother of God herself?
She appeals to the Russians as a powerful and noble people, jealous of their liberties, warning of the dangers posed to those liberties if the power of Henri II is allowed to continue to grow. Turning to the section housing the Novgorodians, she says “you know that the English, if it were in their power, would take from you even your sunshine and fresh air”. This quote always shocks historians, as it is repurposed Raven rhetoric, but it proves highly effective in its new context.
Her appeal succeeds, although for several reasons beyond just Elizabeth’s stage management. That is absolutely not to minimize her role. She had a poor hand, but was able to use it extremely effectively. Had she not been as determined, persuasive, charming, and strong, the history of the House of Wittelsbach would’ve almost certainly ended around here.
The Russians have no direct material reasons to intervene on Elizabeth’s behalf; Bavaria is hardly of strategic significance in Moscow. However, there are concerns about Henri’s power and ambition, and many feel that it is better to fight them in Germany now than to fight them in Lithuania later. Their suspicions about Triune motivations are only exacerbated by the continued rankled feelings of the Russians over the insults of the English they took in Triune-Russian trade negotiations. That the English thought it was ‘insolent’ of the Russians to demand equality in the form of reciprocal trading privileges [1] infuriates them. The Russians in very recent history had demanded, and received, equality of treatment from the Empire of the Romans. They are extremely uninclined to take such abuse from less impressive actors, who they excoriate as ‘men who do not know how to wash their bottoms’, an anti-Triune insult from India the Russians learned via Rhomania. [2]
Another factor tying into the above is that the ‘Federal Empire of Russia’ (the term is of later coinage) is very new, younger even than Karl Manfred looks. But it still suffers from the reputation old Russia has in much of Europe derived from its lackluster performance in the Great Northern War, of being generally clumsy, incompetent, and not really something to be taken too seriously. Perhaps that was why the English felt they could get away with such insults. So, there is a strong desire to assert Russian power, to ensure the new state is taken and treated seriously with the respect the Russians feel they desire, and to dispel the inherited and grating image.
The mention of the Great Northern War does tie into a Russian material interest in intervening in Germany, although this one is indirect. The precursor to the reunification of the Rus had been allied Russian efforts to retake territory along the Baltic coast lost to the Scandinavians during that conflict. That effort had been only partially successfully. There is still unfinished business here. However, the Empire of All the North is allied to Henri II and Russian observers noted how Triune threats had forced Ottokar to back down when he’d retaliated against Scandinavian attacks in northern Germany. If the Russians wish to finish that business there is a good chance they’d have to deal with Henri anyway, so best to distract him with German affairs.
Even with the Russian promise, nothing can be done immediately. Nobody wants to try and launch an army in the middle of a Russian winter. And there are limits to how much the Russians are able and willing to support Elizabeth. Stenka Razin bluntly tells her that she can expect twenty thousand, but no more, Russian troops, nowhere near enough by themselves to throw back Henri II. And there is the obvious question of how to get said troops to Germany. But that is still twenty thousand troops she did not have a month before, and with those in hand she can use them to gather more.
[1] Already mentioned when it happened in the TL, but this is taken direct from OTL. That was how the English reacted to Russian requests for reciprocal trading privileges, and this was in the late 1500s when England was still a mere second-tier power.
[2] An OTL Mughal insult for the English.
