Sure the animal may be dangerous, but it has 250,000+ guns and 500+ cannons aimed at it.
An Age of Miracles Continues: The Empire of Rhomania
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Cryostorm
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No, that is pretty much OTL. Modern agriculture and chemicals, i.e. pesticides and fertilizers, and transportation, especially rail, refrigeration, and canning are what made the size of modern armies possible.
Cryostorm
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If they manage to keep Persia, Central and Southern Mesopotamia, Afghanistan, Baluchistan, and Central Asia to Uyghurstan they can stay a powerful nation and rival to Rhome. If they can manage to hold Pakistan, probably through the same methods that Rhome will hold their eastern provinces, then even better. Though I can see the forced migrations of the partition happening centuries earlier.
Provided he's captured alive, who would actually ransom him? Elizabeth might be honorbound to do so, but their family is already absolutely broke and you can't squeeze blood from a stone. And with her brother out of the way she probably has quite a few avenues to secure her own power in some form. Other Wittelsbach branches (if they exist) would rather advance their own claims and have no incentive to get Theodor back, and neither do most other imperial princes. If he's captured, I fear D3 might have to content himself with keeping him under house-arrest somewhere, maybe as a bargaining chip with whoever becomes German Emperor next.
Kind of like that Ottoman prince that should still be around somewhere. The Romans haven't played that card yet, have they?
I'm curious about the complete intelligence failure on the Allied side. We've seen evidence before in this story that the Allies have good intelligence of Roman operations (see: Von Mackensen knowing that the villa in Sopot ran out of ammo and the Archbishop knowing where the Roman columns were vulnerable at First Ruse). So there's a history of Allied intelligence of the Roman army and their movements.
But even setting that aside, there's no way that the Allies didn't know about the Demetrian Agreement. The Triune ambassador and his displeasure to the truce was mentioned and he and/or the German ambassador would have sped word to their respective governments.
Also, moving 200,000 men isn't exactly stealthy. The Allies would have gotten some word about moving that many men and supplies over the course of the three months between the Agreement and the attack on Thessaloniki.
Maybe the Allies do know and Theodor is already back in Vienna safe and sound? Seems unlikely he'd flee though. But it also seems unlikely the Allies would be completely blind to both the Agreement and the giant movements of men/supplies as well. Maybe I'm jumping the gun and the Allies do know and the author hasn't told us yet - that's entirely possible as well. Perhaps that's how Theodor "loses his mind" - he has clear intelligence of the reckoning coming for him and his army and says "that's ok, I'll still win anyway!" despite the overwhelming odds. Seems like the move of a madman to have ~60,000 men try and pull an Alesia against a host three times their number when you know that a massive army is on the way to end you.
But even setting that aside, there's no way that the Allies didn't know about the Demetrian Agreement. The Triune ambassador and his displeasure to the truce was mentioned and he and/or the German ambassador would have sped word to their respective governments.
Also, moving 200,000 men isn't exactly stealthy. The Allies would have gotten some word about moving that many men and supplies over the course of the three months between the Agreement and the attack on Thessaloniki.
Maybe the Allies do know and Theodor is already back in Vienna safe and sound? Seems unlikely he'd flee though. But it also seems unlikely the Allies would be completely blind to both the Agreement and the giant movements of men/supplies as well. Maybe I'm jumping the gun and the Allies do know and the author hasn't told us yet - that's entirely possible as well. Perhaps that's how Theodor "loses his mind" - he has clear intelligence of the reckoning coming for him and his army and says "that's ok, I'll still win anyway!" despite the overwhelming odds. Seems like the move of a madman to have ~60,000 men try and pull an Alesia against a host three times their number when you know that a massive army is on the way to end you.
Vince
Monthly Donor
Maybe he's counting on that typical bad luck to hit Rhomania?
"Emperor Thodor! One of Vauban's cannon shots got lucky and took out the entire command staff in Thessaloniki so in the chaos we took the city! Also, a storm took out the Abydos supply depots and a localized plague neutralized the army trying to retake Skoupoi! Even better Kaiser Odysseus was killed in a friendly-fire incident. We just might pull this out"
And how are they going to speed word to their governments in this particular day and era? Can't quite send couriers through the empire for obvious reasons, the Russian states are hostile and the Red sea a Greek and Ethiopian lake, leaving aside the hostile Egypt on the other side. The only practical way is by ship from the Persian gulf all around Africa to the French ports and from there overland to the German army in Thessaloniki. How many months is that going to take?
Vince
Monthly Donor
I'm thinking the Germans will find out something is wrong when messengers report the Army of the Danube is sieging Skoupi and they start realizing they are in very deep shit. When that scene of Anna seeing the Army coming over the horizon is occuring the Germans could be frantically trying to disengage and retreat before they're trapped.
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I'd wager that it's Theodor's complete detachment from reality working against the Allies here.
Acknowledging that the Romans have another fresh army rampaging around the area would force Theodor to accept the fact that his Macedonian push has failed and that the war is ultimately lost. Given everything he's thrown into this invasion, Theodor will sooner order around a non-existent army than face the truth.
Compared to that it's very easy to rationalize away these reports as errors or "cowardice" on the part of the scouts, or perhaps a Demetrian ruse. After all, there's no way that a state could ever marshal so many armies without falling apart. The lowly scouts, not knowing the full strategic picture as the men of high standing do, must've seen skeleton Roman units acting like full detachments to force the Allied Army out of Macedonia. Their reports must have the correct context applied to them for proper assessment. One must also recall that the Ottoman Empire is still holding the Holy Land and is attacking Egypt, the Empire's agricultural centre. There's no report contradicting this state of affairs, so the eastern Roman armies cannot have redeployed in sufficient amount or time.
Theodor's thoughts on the matter will look thus: "That treacherous usurper Demetrios must feel truly desperate to play such a poor trick. The invasion must press on, victory is near!"
Acknowledging that the Romans have another fresh army rampaging around the area would force Theodor to accept the fact that his Macedonian push has failed and that the war is ultimately lost. Given everything he's thrown into this invasion, Theodor will sooner order around a non-existent army than face the truth.
Compared to that it's very easy to rationalize away these reports as errors or "cowardice" on the part of the scouts, or perhaps a Demetrian ruse. After all, there's no way that a state could ever marshal so many armies without falling apart. The lowly scouts, not knowing the full strategic picture as the men of high standing do, must've seen skeleton Roman units acting like full detachments to force the Allied Army out of Macedonia. Their reports must have the correct context applied to them for proper assessment. One must also recall that the Ottoman Empire is still holding the Holy Land and is attacking Egypt, the Empire's agricultural centre. There's no report contradicting this state of affairs, so the eastern Roman armies cannot have redeployed in sufficient amount or time.
Theodor's thoughts on the matter will look thus: "That treacherous usurper Demetrios must feel truly desperate to play such a poor trick. The invasion must press on, victory is near!"
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I would also wager that even if the Allied army has heard about the truce and even if they have heard the armies in the East are marching west they have badly overestimated how long it would take Rome to do so.
The movement of the Roman armies is something that is going to be studied for centuries to come as it is a truly unprecedented maneuver. The Romans have quite literally moved a city across their empire in just a couple months time. The sheer audacity of it is likely it’s best defense to secrecy. Even if the allied armies got a full non redacted report from the War Room itself who would believe it?!? It’s so outside the scope and capabilities of the allies that they likely can’t even comprehend the maneuver.
The movement of the Roman armies is something that is going to be studied for centuries to come as it is a truly unprecedented maneuver. The Romans have quite literally moved a city across their empire in just a couple months time. The sheer audacity of it is likely it’s best defense to secrecy. Even if the allied armies got a full non redacted report from the War Room itself who would believe it?!? It’s so outside the scope and capabilities of the allies that they likely can’t even comprehend the maneuver.
The whole German strategic wager here has been that once Thessaloniki falls these armies coming after them will switch sides. "Skopje might fall. If Thessaloniki falls it just means that we get 40,000 men switching sides. Whatever reinforcements might have been shipped from the east have obviously gone to the army of the Danube and maybe some to the army of Hellas. What do you mean Tornikes got also reinforced by 90,000 men? Obviously there weren't that many men in the East and surely noone would be crazy enough to ship off the whole army of the east to Europe."
Now there is an issue with the original premise here obviously. And I also suspect the front is maintained by the forces the Germans knew about and is so thick in stradioti sorry stratiotai and light infantry that scouting into the rear isn't very practical.
If Demetrios is leaving Constantinople, I sort of really want him to meet with Theodor to discuss this whole thing face to face. With 200,000 men behind him.
Now that would be a terrifying sight for Theodor for sure, it'd be just like that scene from Kingdom of Heaven with Baldwin's army arriving and both Baldwin and Salahdin meeting at the front.
One could almost see Demetrios try to reason with Theodor for the sake of his own men. Theodor would see this as weakness on the Rhomans side and rebuff him. D3 shrugs his shoulders, and walks away, throwing his hands into the air. That is the signal for the 200+ cannons open up along the whole Rhoman line and that's when Theodor suddenly realizes he was in the wrong the whole time, only to loose his mind to a cannon ball.
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Had night shift decided to map it out. Let’s say that the Triune ambassador is with the negotiating team and immediately dispatched a rider to Basra...google says 371km from Najaf to Basra and 80km a day so 4.5 days. Afternoon of June 16th to evening of June 21 rider reaches Basra.
Assume again that they immediately find a ship capable of 16km/hour (average for period per google is 8-10) and weigh anchor first thing on the 22nd and go to Kings Harbour. It would be a 55day trip assuming a single stop in Cape Town to take on more supplies. We are now to August 15th.
Assume again the King Henri II learns of the news same day and first light in the 16th dispatches riders to inform the allied army. Kings Landing (Le Havre) to Budapest is 1692km in the modern day. Let’s add 15% to that distance due to lack of modern infrastructure and do some rounding for a simple 1950km. Let’s give them 90km a day. 22 days and we up to September 7th and only to Budapest.
Budapest sends fresh riders to let the allied army know immediately. Budapest to Thessaloniki is 1013 modern day. It’s the Roman Empire though so let’s only add 10% to distance and round and say 1100km. Split between friendly and lawless territory are messenger is still able to make just over 70km/day. Gets him to the army encampment in 16days orrrr on September23.
The Romans army marches to battle September 18th. Theodore still doesn’t know he’s facing the entire Roman army
Good stuff and well-reasoned. That explains that I suppose.
Still no explanation for any intelligence gathering in the Allied camp itself. We've seen references to intelligence gathered from the Allied camp itself. I just find it a bit hard to believe that Blucher and Co would have zero idea of 200,000 men moving hundreds of miles over the course of three months. Surely a spy or two in Constantinople would get word and send it to the Allied generals. It is pretty hard to hide a force transfer of that magnitude over that long of time, even in a pre-SIGINT era.
Not to mention the fact that the siege taking three months with no sign of a beaten yet unbroken Rhoman army is probably driving Blucher and Co a bit batty. Their spider sense has to be pinging like crazy as they wonder what the Rhomas are up to.
Long story short while (baring a return of the typical Rhoman bad luck as mentioned above) the Allies are screwed hard, they should have some idea of the gathering storm that's about to hit them.
If the Allies are truly surprised by this I suppose it can be explained by the same bad luck used to deal the Romans misfotunes. Blucher is too old and sick to do everything, Casimir and Bone Breaker are too busy at each other’s throats, and Vauban was too busy with the siege. The quartermaster has been compromised and now is actively sabotaging the intelligence flow.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it was dismissed. These are primarily land powers besieging Thessaloniki and as such don’t comprehend what the sea lanes truly allow Rome to do.
They may get reports here or there of a large army and maybe even a couple that say 200000. But if the allies know that Rome needs an army in the East and they know that moving 200000 men is impossible in a single campaign than it would be easy to dismiss as Roman propaganda.
Adding to this if any snippets of the Demetrian Truce do reach the allied army Theodore will see Rome has lost 2 major cities including Jerusalem while only gaining a few small towns so clearly Roman power in the East has been broken. If they truly had 200000 men to spare why aren’t they retaking holy Jerusalem from the infidels.
Add it all together and they may very well be getting the intelligence but they just aren’t putting it together correctly and confirmation bias is preventing them from drawing the correct conclusions. It wouldn’t be the first time in history it has happened.