A lot to unpack in this update:
1) Gotta go with the crowd here and say this campaign season has been marked by a ludicrous string of bad-luck/poor generalship
-First the Romans ignore all intelligence of an 80,000 person army moving through Serbia. How does this happen? I get confirmation bias but its a good thing Lascaris killed himself because he was looking at getting tonsured and sent to a monastery otherwise for that screw up.
-Second, I don't know if your basing the fall of Skoupoi on an OTL event but that's not generally how routs happen. Its having hope and than having that dashed that leads to lines breaking...not just having hope. I could see the lines breaking if they hear the Roman army coming but than they are delayed by the Southern lines by even an hour but breaking literally as the reinforcements are coming over the bridge and are minutes away seems like its done for the sake of having a partial Roman collapse and letting the allies advance more than being coherent. The fanaticism of the defenders is mentioned earlier in the siege but than that all goes out the window just as deliverance is coming.
-Third, the uniquely Roman quality of high ranking officers dying/being incapacitated continues with both the first and second in command dying this campaign season. Both of them happening during critical maneuvers that undoubtedly affected the ability of the Roman armies to function at least temporarily.
2) All of above considered the HRE is still screwed and Blucher still failed to deliver a strategic victory. He has won a great tactical victory yes but the basic issue remains; Blucher has an army facing an army of near equal size closer to its bases of supply AND he is also trying to besiege a major city at the same time. The HRE will be lucky if 20,000 soldiers from the army return to Germany at the end of the war.
-Looking at the basics with numbers...Both armies at this point number approx 55,000. Both should be able to get resources at a rate of approx 2-3000 a month. The Romans because reinforcements are being sent to multiple theatres and HRE because of the distance.
-However the Romans will get a one-time infusion of about 18000 soldiers in a couple months times (the Russian calvary and current drilling troops.
-In addition Thessaloniki is a city of 170,000 (probably closer to 200k now with refugees) with modern and extensive defenses. Looking at Constantinople as a comparison it is well within the realm that between a garrison and city militia there are upwards of 15000-20000 soldiers in the city though they are only useful as manning walls and cannons.
-Finally Thessaloniki is a freaking port city and the Romans can use offshore naval batteries to supplement the city garrison and bring in reinforcements/supplies. This will prevent even a tight land blockade since the HRE will not be able to set up near the shoreline.
-In short a 55,000 person army is facing a modern city of 20000 troops, a fleet offshore, AND an army of soon to be slightly larger size in hostile terrain with somehow even more precarious supply lines than last year.
3) I have considerable faith in the Roman commanders currently. First the siege of Thessaloniki is being led by possibly the one person more skilled than Vauban in siege warfare and I expect HRE losses to rise rapidly. Also they now have a guy called "The Mad Lyrist" who seems like just the right amount of aggressive to crush the HRE. They also have their "little Megas" and unless he is the red herring of all red herrings Persia is gonna burn in 10-20years.
4) I imagine from an in universe perspective the end result of all this will be to inflame the Roman population. Propaganda will show this as Latins being beat and just lashing out to hurt Rome as much as possible. I expect to see at least one city in Poland/Hungary/HRE wiped out with the ground salted by the time the war ends. There was mention of a raid in force into Austria from Venice and a 15000 man army with surprise could absolutely destroy a city. It won't be like Pest in the Mohacs war with its unrestrained orgy of violence or even Venice during the reign of Andreas. Instead it will be cold and methodical and at the end there will be nothing left standing. The Greek of the crusades will be put to rest permanently. Far from the Feminine Greeks of the Crusades with their focus of Gold and Silk Germans in the future will remember the Greeks of Vienna who destroyed a city block by block killing everything down to rats and burning everything but the foundations and did it all with cold ruthless efficiency.
TLDR: Romans screwed up by the numbers but their advantages at this point are so overwhelming that it doesn't matter and they may have just died their way into an extremely competent command team. Latin world is gonna learn first hand what a Carthaginian Peace is before war is over.
1) Gotta go with the crowd here and say this campaign season has been marked by a ludicrous string of bad-luck/poor generalship
-First the Romans ignore all intelligence of an 80,000 person army moving through Serbia. How does this happen? I get confirmation bias but its a good thing Lascaris killed himself because he was looking at getting tonsured and sent to a monastery otherwise for that screw up.
-Second, I don't know if your basing the fall of Skoupoi on an OTL event but that's not generally how routs happen. Its having hope and than having that dashed that leads to lines breaking...not just having hope. I could see the lines breaking if they hear the Roman army coming but than they are delayed by the Southern lines by even an hour but breaking literally as the reinforcements are coming over the bridge and are minutes away seems like its done for the sake of having a partial Roman collapse and letting the allies advance more than being coherent. The fanaticism of the defenders is mentioned earlier in the siege but than that all goes out the window just as deliverance is coming.
-Third, the uniquely Roman quality of high ranking officers dying/being incapacitated continues with both the first and second in command dying this campaign season. Both of them happening during critical maneuvers that undoubtedly affected the ability of the Roman armies to function at least temporarily.
2) All of above considered the HRE is still screwed and Blucher still failed to deliver a strategic victory. He has won a great tactical victory yes but the basic issue remains; Blucher has an army facing an army of near equal size closer to its bases of supply AND he is also trying to besiege a major city at the same time. The HRE will be lucky if 20,000 soldiers from the army return to Germany at the end of the war.
-Looking at the basics with numbers...Both armies at this point number approx 55,000. Both should be able to get resources at a rate of approx 2-3000 a month. The Romans because reinforcements are being sent to multiple theatres and HRE because of the distance.
-However the Romans will get a one-time infusion of about 18000 soldiers in a couple months times (the Russian calvary and current drilling troops.
-In addition Thessaloniki is a city of 170,000 (probably closer to 200k now with refugees) with modern and extensive defenses. Looking at Constantinople as a comparison it is well within the realm that between a garrison and city militia there are upwards of 15000-20000 soldiers in the city though they are only useful as manning walls and cannons.
-Finally Thessaloniki is a freaking port city and the Romans can use offshore naval batteries to supplement the city garrison and bring in reinforcements/supplies. This will prevent even a tight land blockade since the HRE will not be able to set up near the shoreline.
-In short a 55,000 person army is facing a modern city of 20000 troops, a fleet offshore, AND an army of soon to be slightly larger size in hostile terrain with somehow even more precarious supply lines than last year.
3) I have considerable faith in the Roman commanders currently. First the siege of Thessaloniki is being led by possibly the one person more skilled than Vauban in siege warfare and I expect HRE losses to rise rapidly. Also they now have a guy called "The Mad Lyrist" who seems like just the right amount of aggressive to crush the HRE. They also have their "little Megas" and unless he is the red herring of all red herrings Persia is gonna burn in 10-20years.
4) I imagine from an in universe perspective the end result of all this will be to inflame the Roman population. Propaganda will show this as Latins being beat and just lashing out to hurt Rome as much as possible. I expect to see at least one city in Poland/Hungary/HRE wiped out with the ground salted by the time the war ends. There was mention of a raid in force into Austria from Venice and a 15000 man army with surprise could absolutely destroy a city. It won't be like Pest in the Mohacs war with its unrestrained orgy of violence or even Venice during the reign of Andreas. Instead it will be cold and methodical and at the end there will be nothing left standing. The Greek of the crusades will be put to rest permanently. Far from the Feminine Greeks of the Crusades with their focus of Gold and Silk Germans in the future will remember the Greeks of Vienna who destroyed a city block by block killing everything down to rats and burning everything but the foundations and did it all with cold ruthless efficiency.
TLDR: Romans screwed up by the numbers but their advantages at this point are so overwhelming that it doesn't matter and they may have just died their way into an extremely competent command team. Latin world is gonna learn first hand what a Carthaginian Peace is before war is over.
