I guess Bush was right about WMD's in Iraq in this scenario.
Anymore lore? This is a pretty interesting scenario. I like it!
I haven't written anything concrete, but essentially:
-Bush wins smoothly in 2000, winning the PV and some other states, with Florida going to him by 5%
-Smoother transition of powers prevents 9/11 and makes Bush a more domestic focused president, and with his extra popularity and a larger GOP majority in Congress, No Child Left Behind is passed on June 2001.
-Instead of WMDs, Bush uses the gassing of Kurds and fears of a collapse as the justification to invade Iraq (with the war being seen more like the Yugoslavian interventions of OTL)
-The Great Recession is milder, instead being more like the early 1990s recession, this and less anti-Bush backlash leads Hillary to win the Dem nomination
-Romney waits until 2016 to run, instead making Huntsman the nominee in 2012
Over all, the GOP looks more like the GOP of 2004 and the Dems stay Clintonites