The
1896 United States presidential election was held on November 3, 1896. Republican Senator William B. Allison of Iowa defeated Democratic Senator David B. Hill of New York. Key issues in the campaign were free silver, foreign policy, and economic plans.
The 1892 election had seen President Bayard reelected. While during his term the economy recovered from the Panic of 1888, widely believed to have been caused by the Silver Purchase Act inflating the economy and causing the further buildup of a railroad bubble that then burst that year, as it had worn on it had continued to move more and more slowly. The overall picture was still generally positive, but while the lack of a panic was well-appreciated, the lack of growth brought on by Bayard's deflationary gold policies was credited with reducing Bayard's share of the popular and electoral vote in 1892. This paradigm, however, was not soon to endure. Shortly after Bayard's second inauguration, rumbling began to occur. These rumblings soon turned to reality, as a new economic panic - the infamous Panic of 1893 - began. Values of stocks crashed, a bank run entailed, and both businesses and banks began to fail en masse. The Panic of 1888 was soon forgotten, as 1893 entered history the same way as those of 1837 and 1873 did.
There was, of course, little Bayard could do. He had already implemented many policies to constrict the money supply, and as a small-government conservative he would not consider interventionist, pro-welfare, or otherwise statist solutions. Bayard's instructions to continue building up the government's gold supply - even after he had substantially increased them in his first term despite the limited nature of the Silver Purchase of 1886 meaning they had only been marginally reduced during the Garfield - further exacerbated by Garfield's own slow-walking of the act's provisions - did little combat the growing stagnation, and fed the image of a president doing little to resolve the economic crisis the country was facing. Bayard quickly became deeply unpopular.
One young man affected by this economic crisis was Henry Wilburn. Born in Colorado in 1872, he had been a mineworker in a silver mine for a few years by the time the 1893 panic hit. Given his profession and the region in which he lived, he was, unsurprisingly, fanatically pro-silver. The mine where he worked went bankrupt after the bank that held its money failed, and he struggled to find a new job. In the course of a few months, the loss of his job caused the loss of his house, his savings, and almost his entire personal life. He was very deeply affected, and he soon came to blame Bayard for his ills. He used what little money he had to purchase a pistol, and then to go out east. After weeks of travel he arrived at the city of Cleveland, Ohio on November 17, 1893. There he heard it - by coincidence, the president would be arriving at the city by train, as by chance a preplanned presidential visit to the city was matching up with the birthday of his predecessor, James Garfield. Bayard would be in attendance. To Wilburn it presented the perfect chance. The next day, a train pulled into the station holding several important political figures, such Robert Todd Lincoln, Secretary of the Interior William F. Vilas, and most importantly, President Bayard himself, come to see the former President Garfield. As he noticed the president get off the coach, Wilburn braced himself. He approached the party; the presidential guards noticed him and began to move, but they were too late. A shot passed through Bayard's stomach, mortally wounding him, and another went in the wrong direction after Wilburn was tackled to stop him from shooting anybody else, hitting a window on the coach and passing through Robert Todd Lincoln's ear. The assassin was pinned down and his gun taken from him - but he had succeeded. Bayard, after muttering some incoherent words that nobody understood (a rumor, likely apocryphal, says that the words "not Olney" were almost intelligible), lost consciousness and died shortly after midnight, November 18, 1893.
It thus fell to Richard Olney to become the 22nd president of the United States. Given the well-known feuding between the president and his attorney-general-turned-vice-president in the first term, many expected that perhaps he would be different to Bayard and find a new, more innovative solution to the economic crisis. Not so. Olney and Bayard disagreed on many things, but in economics both were staunch gold advocates who believed in limited government. Olney would most certainly pivot away from some of Bayard's controversial policies, but not on the ones that most directly affected most people's pocketbooks. His presidency was intensely chaotic. His refusal to divert from Bayard's economic policies soon tanked his popularity and led to an unusually brief honeymoon period for him; he was further hurt by the Pullman strike, where more than 100,000 railroad workers went on strike and massively disrupted the nation, especially in the Midwest. Olney's solution to the crisis - to attach mail wagons to the disrupted trains and then getting Attorney General Cleveland (who had been moved to the AG spot by Olney after spending a few months in the wilderness after Bayard had axed him as Treasury Secretary, an act that was the political equivalent of a ritualistic sacrifice as payment for the 1893 panic) to issue an injunction to break the strike - was not necessarily unpopular, but split the nation and turned Illinois Governor Peter Altgeld against him. Olney's limited time and political capital ultimately only narrowly managed to secure a repeal of the Tenure of Office Act in July 1894, even against the opposition of much of the Senate Republican majority. It would the sole piece of landmark legislation Olney would sign as president.
Where he had limited and largely controversial actions on the domestic front, on foreign policy, Olney most certainly made a splash, greatly diverting from Bayard's policies. His predecessor had sought conciliatory policies towards a Britain much put out by Blaine's hawkish stances, but had been hampered by his party's need to satisfy a large Anglophobic constituency and a growing bipartisan suspicion of the United Kingdom. He was much more lax in dealings with France and Russia, and had been reluctant to cooperate with them. Olney represented a complete reversal: a return to the confrontational policies of the Blaine days. When Venezuela and Britain had a border dispute, Olney's attempt at arbitration fell apart when the British walked because they thought the US sided with Venezuela too much. In terms of alliances Olney returned to a policy of cooperation with France and Russia, but due to the prevailing pro-neutrality paradigm of American foreign policy he did not sign onto a formal alliance, most notably politely but firmly rejecting their invitations to join the Reinsurance Treaty of 1894.
There was also the matter of Hawaii. On a rare case of agreement with his predecessor on foreign policy, he maintained the commission set up by Bayard to investigate the matter of potential Hawaiian annexation following the coup of 1893 that had established the Republic of Hawaii. An anti-imperialist like most Democrats, the commission said the islands opposed annexation. Olney agreed with this and pushed for the restoration of the monarchy, which was achieved in 1894. However, the matter of foreign interference in the kingdom remained. While the US remained by far the largest power in Hawaii and remained a strong and active presence, European merchants also descended on the kingdom, attempting to carve their influence in it. These merchants soon led to tensions between them, and a number of notable fights between German and American merchants led to diplomatic disputes between the two countries. Thus Olney's answer to the Hawaiian question led to increased tensions with Germany as well.
The 1894 midterms came, with an unsurprising result. The Republicans expanded their Senate majority, and easily retook the House majority after eight years, electing William McKinley speaker. Where the Republicans surged and the Democrats receded, the Populists were generally in a similar place. In theory the economic situation seemed to have vindicated, but they were hurt by their association with Wilburn; his political beliefs had been mentioned in many an article about the Bayard assassination, and he had stated that he intended to vote Populist in the 1896 presidential election (as he had turned 21 in 1893, he had not previously been eligible to vote). There was, however, another political consideration that was fiercely debated in the party during the midterms: the role of fusion politics. It was a tactic used in many races: merge with one of the big parties to defeat the other. However, there was a faction that opposed fusion entirely, and even the fusionists were themselves split on a fundamental question: which party was better to cooperate with? This largely split along regional lines. In the west, the Republicans were the dominant party, so the Democrats were more willing to consider fusion. In the South, Black Republicans were more receptive to the Populists' economic message. Thus, western Populists wanted to work with the national Democratic Party, while southern Populists preferred the Republicans. It was agreed to wait and see who the parties would nominate before making a formal decision.
As per usual, convention season began with the Republican National Convention, where the pro-silver and pro-gold factions quickly got into a fierce fight. Both factions were reluctant to give in to the other - the silverites felt the last four years had vindicated them and were not going to concede so easily. Meanwhile, the gold faction was skeptical of letting the silverites run the show after the Bayard assassination. The convention soon deadlocked between the main candidates of each faction - Senator Thomas Reed of Maine for the gold men, and Henry Teller again for the silverites, with a small number of votes remaining for favorite son and bimetallist candidates. After a few ballots, a shift began to occur among the silver men. Many switched their votes to Iowa's bimetallist favorite son William B. Allison of Bland-Allison Act fame. This soon became a stampede, and what was happening was clear: the silverites were rallying behind the compromise candidate. Gold elements largely held firm, but a few did defect, and the favorite sons were all convinced to follow the bimetallist lead. It had taken fifteen ballots, but William B. Allison was now the Republican candidate for president. Given how little input they had had in the formation of the compromise, it was agreed that the pro-gold Chauncey Depew of New York would be nominated for vice-president to appease the gold faction.
The Democratic convention went surprisingly similarly. President Olney attempted to be nominated, but his deep unpopularity made this incredibly difficult, as well over a third of the party seemed resolutely opposed to him. Nonetheless, he had managed to keep the gold faction of the party viable, and it mostly rallied behind him, though a contingent backed other gold Democrats like Wisconsin favorite son and Interior Secretary William F. Vilas or Illinois Senator John M. Palmer. Like the Republicans, the convention soon deadlocked; Olney, as the incumbent, felt the nomination was rightfully his, while silverites said they were the bigger faction and therefore should be favored the nomination. They hurt their case, however, by rallying around Congressman Richard P. Bland of Missouri, whose Catholic wife and children became a major controversy that derailed his chances at the nomination. However, their unwillingness to go for some other silverite candidate, most of whom were very weak - former Governor Horace Boies of Iowa was increasingly a has-been by the time the of the convention, while Postmaster General Adlai Stevenson struggled to gain support from his own home state's delegation - likewise weakened silver Democrats' chances. This went on for thirty inconclusive ballots, until something curious happened. Senator David B. Hill of New York had been in total control of his home state's delegation. On the thirty-second ballot, he began to gain support, some from silverites, some from gold men. Tammany Hall threw its backing behind him, and his bimetallist position gained him the trust of the moderates of both sides. On the forty-first ballot, William Vilas's delegates flipped to him, handing him a two-thirds majority and the nomination. It surprised few when Vilas then became the convention's choice for vice-president.
Thus both parties had nominated bimetallist candidates with pro-gold running mates. This offered a real conundrum for the Populists - there were real arguments for cooperation with both parties, and for going on their own, as Allison seemed too conservative for them and Hill too corrupt. This seemed ready to promote a fierce fight at the party's 1896 gathering, only for international events to throw everything into further chaos. A pair of French and English expeditions had been sent to Africa to map out the continent and generate claims, as part of the fierce colonialist competition that had engulfed both countries since 1881. While there, they had met towards the end of the Democratic Convention. While the situation on the ground was of little note, the response from Paris and London was complete out of proportion. The Fashoda Crisis [1] quickly brought to the foreground all the grievances that had developed both in the Anglo-French relationship and Europe in general since the Crimean War, and it soon looked like both sides were not going to back down. President Olney, freed from campaigning following his loss at the convention, offered to mediate, which was roundly refused by the British. Attempts to defuse the crisis all proved unsuccessful, and on August 15, 1896, the United Kingdom of Great Britain formally declared war on France. The First World War had begun.
In the United States, this provoked great controversy. A majority of the public was against entering the war, but views on it varied wildly. France and Russia had hoped that the US would come to their aid in the event of actual war, but while President Olney communicated via backchannels which his preferred side was, he also made clear that US intervention would not come so easily. Both major parties made the decision to avoid the lightning rod of an issue in the general election. Which left the Populists, who were soon dominated by a powerfully anti-war message. This came to a head at the their gathering in just a few short days after the war. Southern fusionists argued vociferously in favor of endorsing Allison, but with a different running mate. The western fusionists made the same case for Hill. This threatened to split the party - until a young man from Nebraska was given the chance to speak. Elected a representative from Nebraska's 1st district in 1890, he was quite the possibly the party's most talented orator. He spoke at length of the virtue of free silver, the folly of gold, his Christian values, and his fiercely anti-imperialist view. His speech was wildly popular, and ended with his most famous line: "You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold."
The Cross of Gold speech catapulted William Jennings Bryan to national fame, and stayed the fusionist debate by convincing the party he was the candidate to run. The party unanimously declared him their candidate, with Thomas E. Watson of Georgia, and this set the stage for the general election. Allison and Hill both voiced support for neutrality, but were drowned out by the more vociferously anti-war Bryan. The similarity of the ticket also helped Bryan differentiate themselves, and combined with his strong oratorical talents and strenuously active campaign he positioned himself to strengthen the Populist position. As for the major-party candidates, Allison began the campaign favored, but Hill was generally considered to have narrowed the gap, as the economy improved in the late stages as the war in Europe increased demand. While all three parties nominated separate candidates, there was still some regional fusion: in the South, the Republicans removed themselves from the ballot in Alabama and Georgia, allowing for a strong Populist victory in the former and a narrow one in the latter (helped by Watson's own organization efforts), while Populists removed themselves in Tennessee and North Carolina, likely enabling Allison wins in both. In South Carolina, the support of Democratic governor-turned-senator Benjamin Tillman gave Bryan the state. Allison carried Virginia, Florida, and Louisiana even with Bryan on the ballot, while Texas, Arkansas, and Mississippi all voted for Hill. Out West, the Democrats and Populists fused in Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, and Nebraska, enabling Bryan's wins. However, attempts at fusion failed in the rest of the Western states, leading to Allison victories in the West Coast, the Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming. Elsewhere the election was somewhat confused. Hill carried all of the slave states that did not secede, as well as Indiana, New Jersey, and New York. Allison carried the rest of the north; this ended with a fairly hodge-podge coalition that nonetheless carried the Iowa senator to victory with 243 electoral votes. Hill won 140 votes from 11 states, while Bryan gained nationally to 64 electoral votes despite a minor decline in the West, largely thanks to his strong performance in the south. Overall, Allison had been narrowly but clearly elected, and his party retained majorities in both chambers - which would give him a fair bit of leeway with which to govern.
[1] Due to a more intense Anglo-French rivalry, the expeditions here set out two years ahead of OTL.
...well, that came out a lot longer than I expected.
