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The 2010 German federal election was held on the 6th June 2010 to elect the members of the 17th Bundestag. The SPD Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel was running for re-election to a second term, which would be the third of an SPD-led government.
Gabriel had come to power in 2008 after the demise of the left wing ‘red-Heidi-green’ coalition of his predecessor, Heidimarie Wieczorek-Zeul, comprising the SPD, KPD and Greens. Wieczorek-Zeul had sought to increase social insurance contributions and the top rate of income tax to help reduce unemployment, which initially met with success but with the onset of the Great Recession was met with heavy backlash from the public. Despite the generally steadfast support of the German Trade Union Federation (DGB) for Wieczorek-Zeul’s coalition, in the summer of 2008 its members enacted a number of wildcat strikes in response to the government’s failure to act against their employers slashing wages.
This proved the tipping point for the right of the SPD, which had been critical of Wieczorek-Zeul’s policy agenda for many years and had secured legitimisation of its opposition to her because of the wildcat strikes. When the CDU leader Christian Wulff issued a vote of no confidence in Wieczorek-Zeul’s cabinet in September 2008, enough right-wing SPD members abstained to prevent her securing a majority in the Bundestag and forcing her out of office.
There was considerable speculation over whether an election would be required, but the SPD avoided this when party chair Sigmar Gabriel managed to enter negotiations with FDP leader Guido Westerwelle and Green leader Fritz Kuhn, with an agreement being made to form a ‘traffic light’ coalition (the first ever formed at a federal level) and voted into office on the 15th October 2008.
The Gabriel cabinet’s signature goal was to pursue a commitment called the ‘New Market’, aiming to combat the rising unemployment in Germany by liberalizing the economy. Tax cuts were introduced, while cost absorption for medical treatment, pension benefits and unemployment benefits were cut. However, these reforms caused little improvement in unemployment figures; in some cases they actually increased; and deepened socio-economic inequality. The wage share of national income also fell to a 50-year low, and the number of Germans living below the poverty line rose by almost 2% while Gabriel was Chancellor.
Dissent from left-leaning members of the SPD and Greens became commonplace, forcing Gabriel to rely on votes from the CDU/CSU opposition and damaging his reputation. In January of 2009, Oskar Lafotaine, who had served as Wieczorek-Zeul’s Finance Minister for the six years she was in power, resigned from the SPD and declared ‘I cannot bring myself to abandon the left just because the party I was a part of has’. He entered negotiations with KPD leader Gregor Gysi and he and his allies in the SPD formed their own party, the German Labour Party (
Deutsche Arbeiterpartei, DAP) that formed an electoral alliance with the KPD, named the ‘New Left’ (
Neue Linke, NL) alliance and generally just called NL.
The formation of NL severely damaged the SPD’s support on the left and it soon surged in the polls. As early as October 2009, NL declared Lafontaine would be its Chancellor candidate. It was the first time a party besides the CDU/CSU and SPD had put forward a serious candidate for Chancellor, and for a while he outpaced both Gabriel and Wulff as the most popular potential Chancellor after the next election. Several figures on the SPD’s left even endorsed Lafontaine for Chancellor over Gabriel, though Wieczorek-Zeul was not one of them; when asked her opinion of the NL, she quipped, ‘I think the Netherlands is nice, yes’ and refused to answer any further questions on the subject.
When the Bundestag was dissolved in May 2010, Guido Westerwelle immediately made it apparent the FDP would form a coalition with the largest party rather than committing to continuing allying with Gabriel. This kingmaker position, as well as Westerwelle’s personal popularity, helped keep the FDP’s numbers in the polls strong. By contrast, the SPD and Greens polled consistently poorly during the campaign due to left-wing voters seeing them as betraying their values.
The CDU/CSU ran a strong campaign, helped by Wulff’s popularity and focus on the key issue of unemployment, citing his experience as Minister-President of Lower Saxony to evidence his skills in improving the state’s unemployment rates by enacting economic reforms. Ironically, his policies had been quite similar to those of the Gabriel cabinet, a point on which Lafontaine aggressively attacked him.
Once the results came in, it was clear that a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would be the most viable option thanks to the strong results achieved by both. The left-wing vote was heavily divided, as the SPD fell to its worst voteshare and its fewest seats since the Weimar Republic while the NL became the first party besides the CDU/CSU and SPD to win over 100 Bundestag seats, topping the polls in six states in the list vote; however, its narrow failure to pass the SPD’s seat total was a major disappointment to the party. The Greens took their smallest seat and vote count since first entering the Bundestag in 1983, and in a surprise result the German Pirate Party managed to win a handful of list seats including electing the former Green minister under Anke Fuchs and LGBTQ activist Herbert Rusche, the first time since 1980 more than five parties were represented in the Bundestag and the first time a pirate party had ever been represented in a national parliament.
With 372 of the 638 votes, Wulff’s coalition was voted in by the Bundestag in June 2010.
(Note that the PPD had a much easier time getting seats in TTL because TTL’s Germany allocates list seats with a 5% threshold by state rather than nationally, so if you get over 5% of the vote in a state you are entitled to at least one seat from that state’s list unless you won all the constituency seats. This is how the DBD and BP stayed in the Bundestag at a low level for so long, and how the smaller parties have never been excluded from the list seats even when they got less than 5% of the vote like in 1994 and the Greens here. I probably should’ve explained this change sooner, but oh well.)