The Elephant and the Bull Moose: 1960
1964
Rockefeller has gone down in history as something of a paragon of Republican liberalism. Ironically, he did not get off to a very strong start. Between the badly-executed Bay of Pigs invasion in Cuba and the launching of Sputnik making Yuri Gagarin the first man in space, the US seemed to be in trouble, especially when the Soviets attempted to send nuclear missiles to Cuba and the US blockaded them. Fears of nuclear war abounded, but then negotiations between the two resulted in Khrushchev backing down, and a peace was signed between the US and communist Cuba.
While nationalists were disappointed, Rockefeller was seen by the public at large as the man who stopped nuclear war, and ironically his compliance in the construction of the Berlin Wall only reinforced this. At the same time, he ensured a multilateral nuclear test ban, and increased funding to education grants, the Conservation Reserve and farming industries, and 'second-strike' nuclear weapon programmes, in keeping with his election pledges. The recovering economy also revitalized Republican support.
What dominated the political field for much of Rockefeller's tenure, however, was civil rights. He expressed sympathy with the 'freedom riders' in 1961, but when peaceful protests led by Martin Luther King Jr. in Birmingham, Alabama were met with police brutality endorsed by the state Governor George Wallace, Rockefeller expressed his disgust at the behaviour of Southern whites who endorsed segregation.
This was one of the two factors which ensured the Democrats could not win the 1964 election: the factionalism of the party, with northern Democrats like Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey condemning Wallace while Southerners like Strom Thurmond insisted his actions were justified, made the party which had united so dominantly under Adlai Stevenson, look incapable of reconvening in time for the next election.
The second factor came on November 22nd, 1963, when while traveling through Los Angeles to give a speech, President Rockefeller was shot half a dozen times, dying before he could be given proper medical attention. The incident shocked Americans across the country, with voters across the country turning against segregationists sharply.
Effectively, going into 1964, there was no way Richard Nixon (now President) could have lost. Enlisting Senator Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania, an avowed supporter of civil rights legislation, the Republican ticket not only campaigned on the legacy of Rockefeller, but also on its percieved unity in contrast to the intense infighting of the Democrats.
By contrast, liberal and conservative Democrats spent most of the year painting a red target on their party's back. The angry disdain between Humphrey and Wallace, who proved the frontrunners for each side of the party, saw the two tearing into each other's policy agendas, and by the time of the party's convention in Atlantic City, the two were neck and neck. Seeking to avoid the party fragmenting as it had in 1948, the party chairman John Moran Bailey allowed Wallace to take the nomination, but threw his weight behind Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts for the Vice Presidential nomination.
This was a disastrous move. Not only was Kennedy in fairly ill health, but his supporters and those of Wallace did not get along, and the two scarcely campaigned together. Kennedy came to be seen by liberal voters as a front for segregationists; Republicans nicknamed him 'KKKennedy'; and with an uncooperative running mate, Wallace's stance with conservatives was compromised too.
Nixon/Scott (Republican): 509 EVs, 62.2%
Wallace/Kennedy (Democratic): 29 EVs, 36.3%
Predictably, Nixon eviscerated the Democratic ticket, taking more states than any other candidate in the US's history, whilst the Democrats won fewer states and electoral votes than they had in any election in exactly a century. Southern states where the Democrats had hoped to hold onto support despite a rising Republican vote such as Arkansas and South Carolina flipped due to pro-civil rights Democrats sitting out the Presidential election, while Kennedy did not have any real positive impact in the north as the party machine had hoped. It seemed at first glance that the Democrats were in dire straits, and might even end up collapsing over segregation the way the Whigs had over slavery 110 years ago.
But in politics, the most predictable course of action is not always the one which happens.