Alternate, bloodier, Seven Years War.

[0100010]

Prussia loses the continental war

Austria Territory Gains:
Silesia
Hanover (co-occupied w/ France)
Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel (co-occupied w/ France)
Hesse-Kassel (co-occupied w/ France)
Schaumburg-Lippe (co-occupied w/ France)

Sweden Territory Gains:
East Pomerania (recovered losses from the Great Northern War)

Prussia Territory Losses: (Reduced to the Mostly Magraviate of Brandenburg)
East Pomeriania (to Sweden)
East Prussia (to Russia)
Silesia (to Austria)
County of Glatz (to Austria)
Duchy of Cleves (to France)
County of Mark (to Saxony)
Minden-Ravensburg (to Saxony)
Duchy of Magdenburg (to Saxony)
Canton of Neuchatel (to France)
Prussian Guelders (to France)
Cottbus Exclave (to Saxony)
Other unlisted Exclaves (to Saxony)
East Frisia (desperately sold to the Dutch a the last minute by Prussia?)

French Territory Gains:
Duchy of Cleves
Canton of Neuchatel
Island of Minorca
Gibraltar (co-occupied w/ Spain)
Hanover (co-occupied w/ Austria)
Brunswick-Wolfenbuttel (co-occupied w/ Austria)
Hesse-Kassel (co-occupied w/ Austria)
Schaumburg-Lippe (co-occupied w/ Austria)
French Territory Losses:
Quebec (to Great Britain)
Ohio Valley (to Great Britain)
French Caribbean (to Great Britain)
Saint Dominique
Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica. St. Lucia, Grenada, St. Vincent
Senegal (to Great Britain)
French Holdings in India (to Great Britain)

Spanish Territory Gains:
Gibraltar (co-occupied w/ France)
Colonia do Sacramento (South America)
Rio Grande de São Pedro (South America)
Trás-os-Montes (co-occupied w/ France)
Spanish Territory Losses:
Havanna (to Great Britain)
Manilla (to Great Britain)
Santo Domingo (to Great Britain)
San Juan (to Great Britain)

Great Britain Territory Gains:
Havanna
Manilla
Santo Domingo
San Juan
Quebec
Ohio Valley
French Caribbean Islands
Saint Dominique
French Indian Holdings
Senegal
Great Britain Territory Losses:
Minorca (to France)
Gibraltar (to France/Spain)
Hanover (to France/Austria)

Portuguese Territory Losses:
Colonia do Sacramento (to Spain)
Rio Grande de São Pedro (to Spain)
Trás-os-Montes (to Spain/France)


At this particular undefined point in the war:
All the above territory changes are a result of the current state in the war. They do not represent the state at the final peace.
Sweden, Russia, Saxony and Prussia have exited the war. (Hence the Prussian peace & it's dismemberment is a done deal. However if you disagree with the assignment of Prussian lands say why and offer an alternate suggestion)
Russia will swap East Prussia for eastern Polish territories.
3rd Treaty of Versailles does NOT revoke planned exchange to France of the Austrian Netherlands
France Currently has troops in the Austrian Netherlands
Great Britain has been kicked out of the Mediterranean by Spain/France
Equivalent 1759 Invasion of Britain by France failed w/ destruction of many Transports.
In this version of Battle of Quiberon Bay, Britain won, but it was nearly a Pyrrhic victory.
French troops in Germany are now freed up and capable of returning west, allowing for a possible 2nd invasion attempt. (possible because of British losses, the unescorted option might work)
Spanish-France troops and Anglo-Portuguese troops are stuck in a stalemate in Trás-os-Montes. (they were not repelled, but nor can they advance)
All of the countries involved are at this point financially drained and very war weary, and looking for a way out.
Great Britain tries to bring the Dutch into the war again. They haven't decided but are very much not happy at the prospect of a French border.
Empress Elizabeth of Russia dies later than normal, no Miracle of the House of Brandenburg Peter's reign is almost non-existant (he is killed earlier as well)
Fredrick the Great is Dead, killed in battle late in the war, Prussia's defeat followed soon afterwards.
The war has been active for probably more than 7 years.
Post war, if most new world colonies are not recovered, France might pursue a Mediterranean strategy.

France isn't going to give up the Austrian Netherlands or Minorca (to Great Britain).
Austria isn't going to give up Silesia.
Spain/France isn't going to give Gibraltar back.
Britain doesn't want France in the Austrian Netherlands.
The Dutch don't want France in the Austrian Netherlands. (but while neutral they have no say)
King George III doesn't want to lose Hanover. (but Parliament might ignore him)


How does this war end?
What will the final territories look like?
Do the Dutch stay Neutral?
Who will Britain turn to next for continental allies? Dutch, Denmark, the Ottomans even?

By the above state of things who would you say actually won France, Britain, Neither?
Is it only an armistice until the next war to resolve whatever each side didn't like about the outcome of this one?

I know there is not detail of the hows and whys.. just assume that the above is how things turned out, and speculate on how to create a peace. (even if everyone thinks that peace is temporary)

 

[pompejus]

Do the Dutch stay Neutral?

Almost certainly. They are basicly surrounded by enemies and have no allies on the continent. Besides that the last couple of wars they were screwed over by their British allies in the peace. They are going to sit this one out (as long as the French are smart enough to leave the Dutch alone). The next war though things might be different. France gained a lot of territory and became a lot stronger. Many countries will see that and the alliances will be very different than during this war. I certainly could see the Dutch joining a side opposing France.

 

[Parma]

Very interesting

 

[0100010]

Any other opinions?

Is Britain willing to accept the current state of things? A gain of all French colonies east of the Mississippi, the Caribbean, India and Africa for a French Netherlands, the loss of Minorca, Gibraltar and Hanover? AT present British fleets still patrol the Atlantic west of the Strait of Gibraltar (via Portuguese ports), and are keeping French ships mostly inside the Mediterranean. but with the loss of Gibraltar, that might not remain possible. French fleets that escape might undo some of their new world gains.

Does France think the loss of their valuable sugar colonies and India trade worth these gains? Will they risk (more) British descents on their coastal towns because they are being stubborn? If the war continues Britain could take New Orleans and the rest of New France. (although they threaten a 2nd invasion attempt, internally they don't think it is viable because of prior losses and costs incurred thus far.) France doesn't want to be saddled with Hanover & adjacent provinces either, and their use of it as a bargaining chip hasn't been as eagerly sought as they hoped for.

Part of the reason the war is longer (and Britain made greater gains in the New World, yet lost more on the continent) is because earlier peace attempts failed over disagreements. Will that happen again? Will they risk another invasion attempt by France because they are being stubborn?

Portugal wants out, and knows that if it stays at war, even with British help, it may lose a lot more, and the forces that took Gibraltar (though they did so at great cost) are freed up to attack from the southeast. If Portugal makes a peace, is Britain willing to stand alone?

Austria wants out, they accomplished their main objective of gaining Silesia. But they don't really want to be saddled again with a German version of the Netherlands (from the co-occupation of Hanover & adjacent provinces) They have no plans to help France invade Britain or Portugal or to regain lost overseas territories.

Spain is not happy with the loss of their Caribbean holdings. If the war continues, even though they might ultimately conquer Portugal (at great cost), they could lose more New World holdings to Britain.

If Austria, Portugal and Spain make a separate peace is France willing to stand alone against Britain?

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I tend to say : make peace - too many have too much to lose with not enough to gain.

Austria has achieved its main goal, so it will definitely want out - an agreement with britain can be reached.

I would like to know if Friedrich Wilhelm (OTL a weak Prussian King) is participating in TTLs "partition of Poland" or do we see Poland divided Ba Austria, Russia and Sweden (with different trritories - Lithuania for Sweden maybe ?)

a longer war butterflies (speeds up) the american revolution - a longer war might also lead to an earlier French revolution too.

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

Britain is definitely the winner in this war. Not only do they get France's holdings in N. America they control the Caribbean as well. England holding both Manilla and Havana allows them to basically dictate terms to Spain.

Havana is returned in exchange for Gibraltar since I don't think they could realistically keep Cuba but I could see England cutting Hanover loose and keeping Manilla.

 

[0100010]

I tend to say : make peace - too many have too much to lose with not enough to gain.

Austria has achieved its main goal, so it will definitely want out - an agreement with britain can be reached.

I would like to know if Friedrich Wilhelm (OTL a weak Prussian King) is participating in TTLs "partition of Poland" or do we see Poland divided Ba Austria, Russia and Sweden (with different trritories - Lithuania for Sweden maybe ?)

a longer war butterflies (speeds up) the american revolution - a longer war might also lead to an earlier French revolution too.

Britain is definitely the winner in this war. Not only do they get France's holdings in N. America they control the Caribbean as well. England holding both Manilla and Havana allows them to basically dictate terms to Spain.

Havana is returned in exchange for Gibraltar since I don't think they could realistically keep Cuba but I could see England cutting Hanover loose and keeping Manilla.

France also has troops (and Ships) occupying Gibraltar, they won't let Britain retake it.


Treaties:
Secret (but not for very long) Prussia-Dutch Treaty:
Done while the Dutch helps mediate Peace between Prussia, Sweden and Russia.
Prussia seeing the writing on the wall, acts quickly to sell East Frisia to the Dutch because they know they'll gain nothing for it otherwise. (How much would the Dutch pay for it?) Dutch troops move to occupy East Frisia, so that it can't be occupied by France/Austria. The payment is held in reserve by the Dutch for after the war's end (so that France/Austria can't take it away)

What will Poland give up for East Prussia? (Courland?, what else?)


Who is willing to give up what to obtain peace?
Assume standard POW and captured ship exchanges at the minimum.

For a separate peace between Great Britain and Austria, what is being offered by each side? (Austria can't really give up territories co-occupied with France at present w/out French approval, and isn't willing to revoke transfer of the Netherlands to France.)

Proposed Spain-Portugal Peace:
Spain keeps South American Gains, and most of North and East Trás-os-Montes.

Proposed Spain-Britain Peace
Question of the Spanish territories lost, which are the most valuable in order? IMO: 1. Havanna, 2. Manilla. 3. San Juan 4. Santo Domingo
Spanish Florida (as OTL)
Logging Rights near British Honduras & Mosquito Coast
Defined boundary of British Honduras territory
Recognition and/or Defined boundary of Mosquito Kingdom/Coast

Spain-France Treaties
Gibraltar goes to Spain, but France has X number of Year lease on its use. (How long is X, 20-30 years?)
France keeps Minorca (considered more valuable to keep in a Mediterranean strategy)

Proposed Britain-France Treaties
Up for Offer by Britain
Fishing rights in Newfoundland (as OTL but no island territories)
Some of the small sugar islands. (as OTL, Britian now has plenty)
Would Britain offer the return of Saint Dominique? For what?
There is little for France to offer up to Britain, except Hanover, if they take it. Can you think of anything else?

France-Austria treaties
Probably will end up letting Austria have Hanover and adjacent province (if they still have them.)

Other possible Treaties
France might sell the Canton of Neuchatel to the Swiss for needed cash to pay off war debts.
France might sell small former Prussian territories on the far side of the Rhine (parts of Cleves and/or Geldurs) to non-British parties to help pay off war debts.

Post War Alliance spheres:
France-Austria-Russia-Sweden-Spain
vs.
Great Britain-Dutch-Denmark?-Portugal-Ottoman? (once France Mediterranean strategy becomes apparent)

Next Major world War? An Earlier ARW (Harsher England taxes due to war debt)

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

I maintain that Britain's capture of nearly the entire Caribbean gives them a huge amount of leverage over both France and Spain. With the capture of those islands Britain has a near total monopoly on Europe's sugar supply. By that time one-fifth of Europe's total imports were sugar and four-fifths of the sugar came from the British and French colonies in the West Indies and now England controls all of it. In the 1700s that's a virtual license to print money. All of this is in addition to capturing some of the most valuable cities in the Spanish Empire. The only way that Britain is returning those islands is at a hefty cost to France and Spain.

This war was a stunning victory for England. Britain won't need to raise such high taxes on the American colonies because the war probably paid for itself.

 

[0100010]

I maintain that Britain's capture of nearly the entire Caribbean gives them a huge amount of leverage over both France and Spain. With the capture of those islands Britain has a near total monopoly on Europe's sugar supply. By that time one-fifth of Europe's total imports were sugar and four-fifths of the sugar came from the British and French colonies in the West Indies and now England controls all of it. In the 1700s that's a virtual license to print money. All of this is in addition to capturing some of the most valuable cities in the Spanish Empire. The only way that Britain is returning those islands is at a hefty cost to France and Spain.

This war was a stunning victory for England. Britain won't need to raise such high taxes on the American colonies because the war probably paid for itself.

Alright since this is just for roughing out a TL idea, what if Britain had less overseas success?
Britain either doesn't take San Juan or doesn't take Havana
Britain doesn't take Manilla.
In the Caribbean, Britain only takes Saint Dominique and only a couple of the French sugar islands (or less)

 

[katchen]

Britain may TAKE Manila, but given it's performance in Manila when Britain briefly got Manila, Britain will have to give Manila back to Spain. The Filipinos won't tolerate the British. If the British are lucky, they may be able to hang onto thinly populated Palawan and move early into North Borneo from there.
The key question is: Will the people of Cuba and Puerto Rico tolerate the British or will they make it impossible for the British to stay there? Cuba and Puerto Rico are gigantic sugar plantations, but Cuba IOTL and Puerto Rico IOTL are predominantly white. I suspect though (someone else may know more than me on this) that a lot of Cuba's white population settled in Cuba more recently. So I think Great Britain will probably be able to keep Cuba. Which obviously makes the French position in Louisiana very precarious, though I can't see what Great Britain would trade to France to get Louisiana.
Spain is going to have to get very serious about settling the La Plata. Because with the British controlling access to the Caribbean, the entire Spanish gold and silver Flota will have to start going out of Buenos Aires instead of Veracruz and Cartagena. That means that the Spanish are going to need, if not St. Helena Island, certainly Ascension Island as a way station to keep crews from dying of scurvy on the long voyage back to Spain from Buenos Aires. I would also expect the Spanish to attempt to settle the Rio Negro Valley in Argentina as a backup to Buenos Aires, since it is closer to Chile and I believe the Indians around OTL Viedma are less numerous and less hostile than the Indians around Bahia Blanca.
If Spain gets Manila back, Spain is going to start running the Manila Galleon through the South Pacific instead of the North Pacific, direct from Arica. Which will likely mean Spanish discovery and conquest of Tahiti, Tonga, Samoa and other Pacific Islands and on the return voyage to Chile, Spanish discovery of Aoteroa certainly and the east coast of Australia probably. Aoteroa will likely be a good place for Spain to settle as initially a way station for the long voyage from Manila to Valparisio.

 

[pompejus]

Treaties:
Secret (but not for very long) Prussia-Dutch Treaty:
Done while the Dutch helps mediate Peace between Prussia, Sweden and Russia.
Prussia seeing the writing on the wall, acts quickly to sell East Frisia to the Dutch because they know they'll gain nothing for it otherwise. (How much would the Dutch pay for it?) Dutch troops move to occupy East Frisia, so that it can't be occupied by France/Austria. The payment is held in reserve by the Dutch for after the war's end (so that France/Austria can't take it away)

Even though I would love to see it differently, I don't think this will happen. The Dutch republic was not expansionist. they would not care enough about East-Frisia (or Prussian Gueldres and Cleves) to buy it. There is a small chance they might do it for safety reasons, but I realy doubt it.

Post War Alliance spheres:
France-Austria-Russia-Sweden-Spain
vs.
Great Britain-Dutch-Denmark?-Portugal-Ottoman? (once France Mediterranean strategy becomes apparent)

Actualy, it wouldn't surprise me if Austria and Russia (and possibly other countries) switch sides. At this point the most dangerous power in Europe is France. Actualy it always was (at least since the 17th century), but now they are even stronger. Austria and Russia know it. I don't think they will remain on the same side of France for long after the war. Besides that, I think the Netherlands might try to remain neutral. Unless the side that opposes France is strong enough (and in your scenario it most certainly is not, France would walk over them), the Netherlands would want to remain ouside wars. The Dutch recently entered an age of neutrality and noticed that they should be happy they weren't involved in the 7 year war. If you want the Dutch to choose a side, you need to have some convincing arguments (to be fair the threat of France might easily become such an argument, but if France is smart they let the Dutch be).

 

[JCVocke]

I agree, France and Austria won't stay friends after something like this. Prussia was what brought France and Austria together, with Prussia now torn to pieces they'll drift apart back to being the primary Continental Rivals. It probably won't be instantaneous since they are now victorious allies and still have the Dynastic ties with Marie Antoinette being Queen of France, but it will happen eventually.

Fortunately for Austria, France has made far more visible gains, which should distract the rest of Europe from noticing that Austria is now far and away dominant in Germany. Especially if they get Hanover, even just as a satellite, that means they have an absolute Stranglehold on the HRE with no other power being able to hope to match them.

 

[Vanity 6]

This is a tough one for France and Spain. Don't they have to give most of it back in Europe to regain valuable colonies? I never "got" what was in it for them in the Seven Years War.

Perhaps the peace is similar as in OTL except that France gets its client state in the former Austrian Netherlands. What would it be called? Would it include the bishopric of Liege? How about some Rhineland territories for France too?

Austria is happy with Prussia annihilated.

I think France and Austria will stay friendly because they become alarmed by Russia who doesn't honor Conti's claim in Poland and perhaps even annexes the eastern, non-Polish areas leaving a Franco-Austrian aligned rump. Russia is also active in the south, alarming Austria but not yet Britain. So, Russia is Britain's continental ally.

 

[katchen]

This is a tough one for France and Spain. Don't they have to give most of it back in Europe to regain valuable colonies? I never "got" what was in it for them in the Seven Years War.

Perhaps the peace is similar as in OTL except that France gets its client state in the former Austrian Netherlands. What would it be called? Would it include the bishopric of Liege? How about some Rhineland territories for France too?

Austria is happy with Prussia annihilated.

I think France and Austria will stay friendly because they become alarmed by Russia who doesn't honor Conti's claim in Poland and perhaps even annexes the eastern, non-Polish areas leaving a Franco-Austrian aligned rump. Russia is also active in the south, alarming Austria but not yet Britain. So, Russia is Britain's continental ally.

France can replace its colonies and then some by taking initially the Mahgreb and then Egypt and the Levant. And with Gibraltar in France's hands, the door to the Mediterranean is effectively barred to the British. Great Britain may want to aid the Ottoman Empire, but if and when the French take Egypt, the only way the British can reach Ottoman territory is up the Persian Gulf to Basra--which Persia will want along with Baghdad if the Ottomans falter. There is far more sugar and cotton growing land available in the Mahgreb and in Egypt than there is on Hispaniola, Guadalupe and Martinique combined.

 

[0100010]

It's surprising that possession of the Spanish/Austrian Netherlands is so powerful then. That was France's main goal. (Minorca is a nice addition though, as is eliminating a British Gibraltar) I would think Frnace is willing to give up everything on the far side of the Rhine. I only threw Cleves and Geldurs at them because they were adjacent, and France wanted a piece of Prussia while it was up for grabs. That was why I made them lose so much overseas, to blunt the continental gains. There still seems argument as to which side "won" (at least when comparing Britain and France)

Alliances post war I'm sure will have some shake-ups. What I am most curious about though is what will the final peace of this version of the Seven Years war look like?

 

[0100010]

France can replace its colonies and then some by taking initially the Mahgreb and then Egypt and the Levant. And with Gibraltar in France's hands, the door to the Mediterranean is effectively barred to the British. Great Britain may want to aid the Ottoman Empire, but if and when the French take Egypt, the only way the British can reach Ottoman territory is up the Persian Gulf to Basra--which Persia will want along with Baghdad if the Ottomans falter. There is far more sugar and cotton growing land available in the Mahgreb and in Egypt than there is on Hispaniola, Guadalupe and Martinique combined.

Ironically, taking down the Ottomans, is perfectly valid reason for keeping an Austrian-French-Russian alliance.

 

[Deckhand]

I wonder is Spain will trade Gibraltar back to Britain for Cuba back?

 

[0100010]

I wonder is Spain will trade Gibraltar back to Britain for Cuba back?

Spain-France Treaties
Gibraltar goes to Spain, but France has X number of Year lease on its use. (How long is X, 20-30 years?)

They would have done something like the above to make sure Spain can't just give it back to Britain. Both Spanish and French force of arms and ships took Gibraltar ITTL, France isn't going to vacate it except by force.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I doubt that Russia and Austria will become enemies immediately - both have much to gain at the expense of their common neighbours - divide et impera. First I assume a partition of Poland

I think Sweden wwill gain East Prussia + the Polish "Corridor" which niceliy fits next to their Pomeraian holdings. Maybe even the Baltic coast between Memel and Courland.

The Swedish Austrian Border will further ron along the Vistula from Thorun to Warzaw - there the 3 nations might meet - Austrias border run south along the Vistula to Galicia. - I also then do give Lublin to the Autrians (basicall all the Austrians got in th 1st and 3r partition + the territories from posen to Warzaw that went to Prussia OTL. Russia gets wht it got OTL - Courland but also the eastern half of the lands Prussia got in the 3rd partition.

In the South Austria and Russia would cooperate in dismantling the Ottoman Empire (sSewden would try to expand westward ) - Tthus both would come into conflict with france sooner or later (France might become OTLS Britain and "protect" the Ottoman Empire) As long as teh Ottomans are strong (and France is sitting in the west Russia and Austria will be (reluctant) friends.

Austria will also be interested in Italy - this brings it into conflict with france whic is another resaon Russia will be "friends" with Austria - As long Austria is occupied with italy Russia can focus on the OE (though Russia can also Ally with france - which will Bring Austria and Britain together (again) which is also not implausible. Allieances will not be that firm as they were in the years before the Great War of our TL.

The more I think I believe Austria and Britain will be friends again

 

[Vanity 6]

Good points, but I think France and Austria will satisfy themselves with their existing spheres of influence in Germany and Italy. For Austria, I think the French alliance is especially advantageous. Saxony and Bavaria are neutralized by it and Austrian influence is strong there. In Italy, Savoy is contained.

I see something going down with Poland too. As I said before I think it is an outright annexation of the eastern territories by Russia and an Austrian client state in the Polish core. Perhaps a French prince is elected King after all, but the influence is Austrian.

I agree the Southeast is where trouble will flare and potentially shift alliances.