Alternate, bloodier, Seven Years War.

[0100010]

Those are all good post war ideas, but I'd still like more comments on my prior question below.

What I am most curious about though is what will the final peace of this version of the Seven Years war look like?

Who's going to trade off what in exchange for peace or will everyone throw up their hands and declare it a full on uti possidetis conclusion?

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

I assume that Austria/France hold Hannover at the end of the war. In peace negotiations France should get back (some) colonies for returning the "ancestral" lands...

Spain will keep Gibraltar - it also might get back some posessions - if there is a sizeable "Spaniard" population.

 

[Socrates]

A few thoughts:

- How on Earth do the French/Spanish capture Gibraltar? Unless the French get naval supremacy in the Atlantic, the Brits have always been shown they can resupply the place. It's simply not something that can be taken otherwise.

- If the war keeps on going, the Brits can take all of the Caribbean. It's just a matter of time once they have naval supremacy.

- If the French can redeploy troops from Hannover, then they will put them against Portugal. Invasion of Britain is hopeless without control of the Channel.

- France and Austria won't break their alliance. The dominant factions of both royal courts have staked themselves politically on it, and that alliance won't change until those factions lose power. Given they will have been boosted by conquests in the war, that won't happen here. Also, France wants to take down Britain, and it won't want to face an Eastern front war; while Austria is always going to be hostile to Russia, and won't want to fight on two fronts in the future.

- That said, Austria might be willing to end the war once Prussia is done, as it would be entitled to under the French alliance. While they will keep France as an ally, they don't want them too strong, and won't want them getting Hannover or influence in Germany.

- The main push for a peace deal in London was the issue that the new King was jealous of Pitt's popularity. That's going to happen here too. The peace was very French-leaning in OTL and it will be again here.

- The French know they have financial problems and can't keep on at war for a long time. They will accept a generous offer.

 

[0100010]

Any other ideas for the final peace?

Additionally, what is the most plausible way for combined French and Spanish forces to take Gibraltar during this Seven Years war? (This might require an earlier entry of Spain into the war)

 

[Norbert1980]

I agree, France and Austria won't stay friends after something like this. Prussia was what brought France and Austria together, with Prussia now torn to pieces they'll drift apart back to being the primary Continental Rivals. It probably won't be instantaneous since they are now victorious allies and still have the Dynastic ties with Marie Antoinette being Queen of France, but it will happen eventually.

Fortunately for Austria, France has made far more visible gains, which should distract the rest of Europe from noticing that Austria is now far and away dominant in Germany. Especially if they get Hanover, even just as a satellite, that means they have an absolute Stranglehold on the HRE with no other power being able to hope to match them.

good points!

I guess that an "Austrian-lead-Holy Roman Empire" would have the potential to dominate Europe - probably they would have incorporated also the non-german-parts of their Empire into the HRE sooner or later.

Actually there were Austrian plans in 1850 to forge a huge Empire - but of course they couldnt "persuade" Prussia and the other German states to become their subordinates IOTL:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:70-Millionen_Reich.jpg

 

[0100010]

I've been thinking for a long time about turning this into a timeline, but not sure if I want to do it alone. Anyone interested in a collaboration?

 

[JCVocke]

I would be interested in it, and could help with Maps. My specific knowledge of this area is limited, most of my observations are about general trends and "Common Sense" sorts of things. Still, I'm always up for a timeline that doesn't endlessly shit on the Habsburgs.

@Norbert1980: I think Austria would keep their non-Imperial territories outside of the Empire-de-Jure unless they get some sort of benefit from adding them. Historically there was no such benefit, but in an alternate situation where Austria is able to push through Imperial Reforms that might not be the case. A PoD this far back will of course butterfly the Super-Germany you linked to, but the Habsburgs will definitely try to rein in the Imperial Princes and strengthen their authority.

As Richter von Manthofen said, it is unlikely that Austria will immediately be enemies with either France or Russia, but rather stay friends with both for a fairly long time. Austria is probably looking towards at least a decade of complete security, with a stranglehold on The Empire and being surrounded by Allies, with only their Southern Border being unsecured. But again, with Russian support that is hardly worrying.

Austria might be able to get France to abandon the Ottomans if Austria keeps supporting France against Britain. Austria won't have any appreciable navy to provide direct support, but if France can count on Austria staying truly neutral, that means their only major Continental Threat is gone, meaning they'll be able to actually focus on Naval Matters somewhat. This isn't likely to last forever, but it could last long enough, however I doubt it.

Eventually Austria and France will have more competing interests then they have compatible interests, and they'll drift apart. In all honesty, the sooner this happens, the better for France. If Austria truly solidifies their hold on Germany, France is going to be in for a world of hurt.

 

[0100010]

I would be interested in it, and could help with Maps. My specific knowledge of this area is limited, most of my observations are about general trends and "Common Sense" sorts of things. Still, I'm always up for a timeline that doesn't endlessly shit on the Habsburgs.

@Norbert1980: I think Austria would keep their non-Imperial territories outside of the Empire-de-Jure unless they get some sort of benefit from adding them. Historically there was no such benefit, but in an alternate situation where Austria is able to push through Imperial Reforms that might not be the case. A PoD this far back will of course butterfly the Super-Germany you linked to, but the Habsburgs will definitely try to rein in the Imperial Princes and strengthen their authority.

As Richter von Manthofen said, it is unlikely that Austria will immediately be enemies with either France or Russia, but rather stay friends with both for a fairly long time. Austria is probably looking towards at least a decade of complete security, with a stranglehold on The Empire and being surrounded by Allies, with only their Southern Border being unsecured. But again, with Russian support that is hardly worrying.

Austria might be able to get France to abandon the Ottomans if Austria keeps supporting France against Britain. Austria won't have any appreciable navy to provide direct support, but if France can count on Austria staying truly neutral, that means their only major Continental Threat is gone, meaning they'll be able to actually focus on Naval Matters somewhat. This isn't likely to last forever, but it could last long enough, however I doubt it.

Eventually Austria and France will have more competing interests then they have compatible interests, and they'll drift apart. In all honesty, the sooner this happens, the better for France. If Austria truly solidifies their hold on Germany, France is going to be in for a world of hurt.

We'd first need a detailed (especially around the mess of central Germany) map of Europe before the Seven Years war. When I was first doing the research here finding decent maps (in English) of that areas to see what might end up where post-war was...aggravating.

For an initial maintenance of friendship/alliance, France losing new world colonies and pursuing a Mediterranean strategy would put them against the Ottomans when they seek to gain North Africa and Egypt. this leaves Austria and Russian to carve up the rest of the Ottomans (probably after they are done carving up Poland)

As for other collaborators, would need some willing writers with good knowledge of the time period.

 

[1.36]

For what it's worth I'm working on a map in my sandbox thread (1.36's Sandbox Thread) that will show the world in the 1880s where France, Austria, Spain, and Russia won the Seven Years' War.

 

[0100010]

Thanks for your feedback.

Gibraltar cannot be taken without throwing out your base premise, so I'm ignoring that bit.

Could you elaborate?

For the scenario I am thinking of, I want France & Spain suceed in taking Gibraltar, even if this happens at a great cost and/or via extreme means.

I'm not opposed to changing who took what from the original proposals as this is all discussion. How do you think they could succeed in taking Gibraltar?

 

[Perfidious Albion]

An interesting effect will be on future European politics. The United Kingdom of Great Britain * will come out of the war with hegemony over all the other European powers virtually everywhere outside Europe (well, to a greater extent than it did IOTL, anyway). All the other European colonial empires will be exceedingly unhappy at this point. This might result in an earlier war of the other empires against Great Britain in order to reset the balance of power (the role that the American Revolutionary War fulfilled IOTL). Alternatively, France and the Netherlands might begin to support the American rebels earlier, which has the potential to achieve any number of things, from the Revolution succeeding much more easily and painlessly than it did IOTL to a total failure of the Revolution (the American rebels had several key pieces of luck and if we reset the game-board it's easy to imagine several differences, any of which could have led to British victory).

Could you elaborate?

For the scenario I am thinking of, I want France & Spain suceed in taking Gibraltar, even if this happens at a great cost and/or via extreme means.

I'm not opposed to changing who took what from the original proposals as this is all discussion. How do you think they could succeed in taking Gibraltar?

I'm not Caoster but if I'm permitted to make a point: Gibraltar is a small coastal area of land easily defended and easily reinforceable by sea, Great Britain controls the sea in the Seven Years' War (short of huge changes from OTL, which would probably lead to an attempted French invasion of Great Britain rather than merely a capture of Gibraltar) and Gibraltar is a very high priority for Great Britain because without it Great Britain is helpless in the Mediterranean Sea. Due to these factors, it is difficult to imagine Gibraltar being retaken by Spain in this time-period.

* I know that some people like to call it the 'Kingdom of Great Britain' without the word 'United', but that's an invention of historians rather than a matter of actual historical fact, just like the term 'Byzantine Empire'; the actual acts that founded it call it the 'United Kingdom of Great Britain' far more often than the 'Kingdom of Great Britain' and even call it 'the United Kingdom' several times.