Air Dominance -A tale of 21st Century Naval Airpower

01. Bigger, Better, Faster, Stronger
Introduction
The defence procurement systems of NATO powers are a complicated system of political horse trading and corporate big business. With so many moving parts, a small change can have large consequences.
In the late 80s and early 90s the US Congress had become weary of defence sector extravagance, and the often duplicitous information they got from the Department of Defence. It was only a matter of time until they snapped and pushed back.


01. Bigger, Faster, Better, Stronger

August, 1987- Colonel James G Burton, with the encouragement of fellow officers, releases his report on how the United States Army falsified test results during the procurement of the Bradley armoured fighting vehicle, to the New York Times.
Incensed by the contents of the report, Congress establishes a permanent Procurement Oversight Comission, that will review all military procurement projects.


January, 1989- An officer from the Naval Advanced Tactical Fighter program office testifies to the Commission that despite assurances from several admirals, it is unlikely that either the YF-22 of YF-23 prototypes from the USAF's ATF program can be navalized without essentially building a new aircraft with only very minor commonality in certain systems. The NATF would therefore be far more costly to develop than current projections allow.

May, 1989- In the face of increased pressure from congressional oversight, the United States Navy cancels the Naval Advanced Tactical Fighter Program.
Now bereft of a next generation fighter program, and having earned the ire of Congress, the Navy settles for extending the life of their F-14 Tomcat fleet via a more extensive version of Grumman's Quick Strike upgrade package.


April, 1990- The A-12 program runs into trouble, Congress already suspicious of Navy excuses gives little leeway. By the end of the month this program is also cancelled. With budgets and oversight being tightened the Navy becomes convinced that it will be forced to 'kneck down' the types of aircraft it operates.
Plans for the improved F-14, now referred internally at Grumman as F-14 2000, are accelerated.

September, 1990- Experiance of the rudimentary 'bombcat' upgrade during operation Desert Shield gives the Navy confidence that improved Tomcats can be used as multi-role aircraft.

November, 1990- The F-14 2000 program is successfully presented to congress as an evolutionary upgrade of proven technology to fill several needed roles. Satisfied that the Navy's expectations of needlessly expensive 'cutting edge' equipment has been quashed, Congress authorises a program of rebuild and new production Tomcats to be designated F-14E.


April, 1991- The Lockheed YF-22 is selected as the winner of the Advanced Tactical Fighter competition.

October, 1991- Realizing that it will be unfeasible, within future budgets, to operate an air group exclusively of F-14s the Navy decides to continue the current hi-lo mix composition of carrier air groups. It also starts a long term program for a F-18 replacement. Called the Multirole Light Fighter program.


June, 1992- The USAF and USMC inaugurate the Common Affordable Lightweight Fighter program to develop a next generation light fighter to replace the AV-8B and F-16 series. Plans are to create both conventional and vertical take off versions to accommodate the requirements of both services.

October, 1992- The Isreali government issues a request for information to several US aviation firms for a new long range strike aircraft. McDonnell Douglas offers the F-15E Strike Eagle, Lockheed Martin the F-16C and Grumman the F-14E.


July, 1993- With defence budget being slashed now that the Cold War is over, the DoD conducts a complete review of procurement programs. It is decided that to conserve development costs the CALF and MLF will be merged as the Joint Light Fighter program, to develop a common aircraft for all three services.
The Navy is initially resistant, raising concerns that the inclusion of VTOL will compromise the flight characteristics of all three variants. Privately senior aviation admirals are concerned that a catapult version will be sidelined, and that they will have to settle for VTOL themselves.

October, 1993- After months of argument a compromise is reached, it is agreed that a common platform for USN and USAF aircraft will be developed first, with a separate VTOL aircraft derived from the mature technology to be developed at a later date. In the interim the USMC will make do with a mixture of the new AV-8B and their own F-14E squadrons.


March, 1994- The Eurofighter 2000 prototype undergoes test flights over Bavaria.

April, 1994- The first pre-production F-14E undergoes test flights at Naval Air Station Oceana.

August, 1994- The F-14E enters limited production at the Grumman plant in Calverton, NY.

December, 1994- After a hard fought competition the Isreali Airforce selects the F-14E for their new strike aircraft. A localised version called F-14I is to be developed with local work share and Isreali avionics fit.
The Israelis also express interest in procuring the AIM-54 Phoenix missile as an additional long range air defence capability.


March, 1995- The British MoD approaches the US DoD with an offer to join the JLF program, and to shoulder a considerable amount of the development costs, in return for workshare and BAE being able to bid in he competition. The advanced REPLICA 'stealth' aircraft program is offered up as proof that the British have something to contribute.

The USMC is emboldened by the British entry into the program, and attempts to get the RAF an RN on thier side in pushing for the VTOL variant to be reinstated as an equal part.
However the USN heads this off by offering a significant transfer of carrier technology, an offer that the MoD, which is just now beginning to consider a replacement for the Invincible class VTOL carriers, eagerly agrees to. The RAF, which has become somewhat lukewarm to the VTOL concept agrees, and the British support the status quo.

August, 1995- The RAF publishes its Future Airforce Plan 21. Under this plan the number of aircraft it operates is to be down scaled. The EF-2000 is to replace the Tornado F.3 and remaining Phantoms; The USAF variant JLF will replace the Harrier, Jaguar and Tornado GR.4. Plans are also made to continue with the Nimrod MRA.4, procure a next generation trainer, a new tactical airlifter and a dedicated AWACS aircraft with NATO commonality.
 
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Archibald

Banned
Nice TL, will follow it closely. For my space TL I did some research about NATF a while back. I expected the NATF to be a navalized F-22 (or F-23) with the usual business that is reinforced structure, beefed up undercarriage, tailhook, and + 2000 pounds of dead weight.
I was shocked to find that the NATF - F-22 had swing wings, essentially making it a brand new and extremely expensive aircraft.

NATF-1S.jpg


The naval F-23 was hardly better, switching to delta wing + canard.

While I like the F-14, the Superbug is equally tempting, but in the end I feel that the real big missed opportunity was the A-6F. the flying dorito was even worse than the NATF.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Very happy to see the Tomcat getting a new lease on life. IMO, that airframe should never have been retired.
 
Nice TL, will follow it closely. For my space TL I did some research about NATF a while back. I expected the NATF to be a navalized F-22 (or F-23) with the usual business that is reinforced structure, beefed up undercarriage, tailhook, and + 2000 pounds of dead weight.
I was shocked to find that the NATF - F-22 had swing wings, essentially making it a brand new and extremely expensive aircraft.

NATF-1S.jpg


The naval F-23 was hardly better, switching to delta wing + canard.

While I like the F-14, the Superbug is equally tempting, but in the end I feel that the real big missed opportunity was the A-6F. the flying dorito was even worse than the NATF.

Yeah the NATF was mental, I really don't know how the navy thought they could get away with claiming it was a navalized ATF. I suspect there may have been considerable bad feeling about having to use the ATF as a base on the first place, instead of being allowed to have their own program; and they decided to mostly ignore the brief.
It does look damn cool though.

I expect in this TL there will be countless people claiming it was a lost opportunity and that the NATF should have been pursued instead of soldiering on with more tired old Tomcats.
 
02. Last Man Standing
As defence budgets get squeezed by the post-cold war peace dividend the race is on to snap up the last few big military contracts. Once proud names will be left in the dust, unable to compete in this new world. Others will fight tooth and nail to reach the top of the pack.


02. Last Man Standing


March, 1995- Lockheed Corporation merges with Martin Marietta, securing both corporations in the new era of reduced defence spending. The New company is to be called Lockheed Martin.

May, 1995- The United Kingdom formally joins the JLF program, and agrees to pay 10% of development costs.

October, 1995- By now four concepts are entered into the JLF design competition from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, McDonnell Douglas and a cooperative effort between Grumman and BAE.
McDonnell Douglas, short on funds after the failure of its bid for the ATF program, and the cancellation of the A-12, can only manage a meagre effort and soon drops out, only to be added to the combined Grumman-BAE effort.


June, 1996- The F-14E goes into full production. The first units have been delivered to the US Navy for evaluation.

November, 1996- The JLF program office makes the decision to award contracts to all three remaining bids to develop prototype aircraft. It is felt that maintaining a wider choice in the competition could help provide a better result for the Department of Defence.


January 1997- The Dassault Rafale goes into full production.

February, 1997- Northrop Corporation buys into the JLF program by acquiring McDonnell Douglas. The new company is called Northrop Douglas.

March, 1997- Flight testing of the F-22 Raptor begins.

May, 1997- The new Labour government Strategic Defence review recommends replacing the Invincible class VTOL carriers with two modern carriers of at least 45,000 tonnes and capable of carrying fifty aircraft. Continuing use of VTOL is somewhat discounted due to the lack of such aircraft in development. It is expected that the new carrier aircraft will be the USN version of the JLF.
To reduce maintenance overheads the Harrier force of the both the RAF and RN are administratively brought under Joint Force Harrier. It is expected that once the Invincible carriers are retired in the next decade, that the Harrier force will be entirely transferred to the RAF.

June, 1997- Canada joins the JLF program with an initially modest investment of $10 million.


January, 1998- The Eurofighter 2000 begins initial production.

April, 1998- The rusting hulk of the half finished Kuznetsov class carrier Varyag is bought from Ukraine by a Macau company claiming they want to turn it into a hotel and casino. Western intelligence agencies view this transaction with suspicion.

July, 1998- Norway and Denmark join the JLF program.

August, 1998- The F-14E begins carrier trials on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69)

September, 1998- The Eurofighter is officially named the Typhoon.


February, 1999- The Netherlands joins the JLF program.

June, 1999- Northrop Douglas begins trying to sell an improved version of the F/A-18C Hornet on the export market, that they have designated the FA21 Cobra. Some interest is gained especially from current F-5 Tiger operators, but no sales are made. It faces stiff competition from surplus USAF F-16s.

July, 1999- Italy joins the JLF program.

September, 1999- The Royal Navy's future aircraft carrier program, CVF, progresses to the design stage. Several proposals are made, eventually, the largest 60,000 tonne CATOBAR version is selected. The Royal Navy begins a large scale personnel exchange initiative with the USN to help reacquire the skills necessary for conventional carrier operations.

December, 1999- The YF-24, Boeing's entry into the JLF competition, is the first to be revealed at a large event at their Palmdale plant.


February, 2000- The Lockheed Martin JLF prototype, the YF-25, is unveiled. The design borrows many features and technology from the F-22, which Lockheed touts as a feature in its favour.

May, 2000- The F-14E is accepted by the US Navy and reaches Initial Operational Capability (IOC) with the VFA-176 Thunderbolts squadron.

June, 2000- Turkey denies the Varyag transit through the Bosphorus straits, citing it as a potential navigation hazard. Negotiations are initiated by the Chinese government to let it pass, whilst the Varayg begins a slow anti-clockwise circle of the Black sea.

Septmeber, 2000- After some delay the Grumman-BAE-Northrop Douglas JLF prototype aircraft is revealed, it is heavily based on BAE's REPLICA technology demonstrator. It recieves the designation YF-26.

October, 2000- After a troubled construction the carrier Charles De Gaulle embarks on it's last sea trials. A propellor breaks mid route and the ship has to be towed back to port.

December, 2000- The French Navy recieves its first Dassault Rafale fighters.


March, 2001- Charles de Gaulle goes back to sea with older propellers from Foch, but is hampered by extrme noise levels in the aft part of the ship. The carrier is put back into drydock for a refit to solve the problem.

May, 2001- Australia joins the JLF program.

June, 2001- All three JLF prtotype aircraft arrive at Edwards AFB, Nevada for flight testing.

July, 2001- Each of the prototypes has held it's own in the initial stages of testing, performing multiple take offs and landings. Boeing's offering the YF-24 is tipped as the current favourite by inside sources.

August, 2001- Speed and manuevering tests have found that the YF-26 is the fastest and most agile of the three aircraft, earning it the nickname 'Thundercat'.

September, 2001- Aerial refueling and weapons trials commence. An accident occurs with the YF-25 casuing its cockpit to be cracked by a refuelling boom. It is soon repaired, but program officials raise concerns about some of the aircraft's aerodynamics.

October, 2001- The Grumman-BAE-Northrop Douglas YF-26 is announced as the winner of the JLF competition, and is selected for further development.
Lockheed and Boeing both lodge objections claiming the testing process was biased against their aircraft. The Procurement Oversight Commission begins an official inquiry.

November, 2001- Varyag is allowed to transit through the Bosphorus after a high-level deal is reached between the Turkish and Chinese governments. It begins its long journey around Africa.

January, 2002- The Isreali Airforce receives its first F-14I aircraft.

March, 2002- The Procurement Oversight Commission investigation supports the JLF program office decision. But as a consolation announces that derived VTOL aircraft contract for the USMC requirement will be awarded in a separate competition.

June, 2002- Despite success in the JLF competition, Northrop Douglas is suffering large losses on the civilian side of its business, especially with the development of the MD-12 airliner. Boeing, eager to consolidate its commanding position in the civilian airline market, and to get its foot back in the door of the JLF program buys out Northrop Douglas for $16 billion.

August, 2002- A flight of F-14Es conduct a response strike against Iraqi SAM launchers as part of Operation Southern Watch.
 
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I wonder if the simple act of keeping the Marines away could prevent the JLF from entering the single most spectacular program death spiral in human history. All three of the Marines' post-Cold War big-budget programs have been disasters (V-22, EFV, JSF), which proves that Marines should never be allowed to buy anything somebody else doesn't already have.
 

SsgtC

Banned
I wonder if the simple act of keeping the Marines away could prevent the JLF from entering the single most spectacular program death spiral in human history. All three of the Marines' post-Cold War big-budget programs have been disasters (V-22, EFV, JSF), which proves that Marines should never be allowed to buy anything somebody else doesn't already have.

Strongly disagree with you on the V-22. It's considered a huge success. Has an outstanding saftey record in service, excellent availability rate, and is being bought by both the USAF and USN. And foreign countries as well.
 
Strongly disagree with you on the V-22. It's considered a huge success. Has an outstanding saftey record in service, excellent availability rate, and is being bought by both the USAF and USN. And foreign countries as well.
It only got that way more than fifteen years after the program's expected IOC date, and it sucked up so much of the Marines' aviation budget that they had to retain ancient, and unreliable, CH-46s through the Iraq War until 2015. I'm not going to deny that it's become a great platform, because it is, but it was a leap too far in the early 1990s.
 
It only got that way more than fifteen years after the program's expected IOC date, and it sucked up so much of the Marines' aviation budget that they had to retain ancient, and unreliable, CH-46s through the Iraq War until 2015. I'm not going to deny that it's become a great platform, because it is, but it was a leap too far in the early 1990s.

But for a long time, it looked like a damn widow-maker.
 
Why are the designations YF-24,25,26 when the OTL analogs were YF-32,35?

Those were actually X-Planes like the X-15 or X-47 which stand for experimental planes and are on a different number system from YFs which means prototype. OTL they were designated X as IIRC they were considered radical advancements. Not sure why they arent ITTL
 

Archibald

Banned
JSF / F-35 had technology demonstrators that felt in the X-plane category. They were given the X-32 and X-35 monikers (stuck amid NASA space shuttle successors X-33 and X-34)
The real stupid thing was that these numbers were kept for the fighter development, hence F-35 when it should have been F-24.
 
The designations are also part of the reason Boeing lost the competition. The companies were told to build technology demonstrators, (thus x-planes) and that it was on the technology demonstrated that they would be judged.
Boeing did exactly this, producing two airframes that showcased the difderent production techniques and tech that they would bring to the program. The X-32 wasn't what their finished product would look like and needed significant reconfiguring to be switched between various test parameters (such as vtol and high speed flight). But that shouldn't matter right? It was the tech on show not the aircraft, especially as they had been given fairly imited budgets to develop them, there was no need to make somethimg flashy.

Lockheed realised the people who really had the final desicion (congressmen and senior military bureaucrats) wouldn't really see the distinction. So they built an aircraft that was much closer to being a Y-series prototype, one that was far more capable.
So when the X-35 was able to take off vertically, go supersonic, and then land vertically; whilst the X-32 couldnt, Lockheed had all but won. Even though that wasn't the original intent of the testing. It also helped that the X-32 looked very ungainly, whilst the X-35 looked like a small F-22 raptor.

No amount of Boeng showing pictures of what the production aircraft would look like, or touting their low cost production methods helped. Lockheed had something physical and tangible, Boeing did not.


None of this is to say that the Boeing JSF would have been better than the F-35, but Lockheed Martin played the procurement game far better than Boeing, and was rewarded for it.
 
September, 2001- Aerial refueling and weapons trials commence. An accident occurs with the YF-25 casuing its cockpit to be cracked by a refuelling boom. It is soon repaired, but program officials raise concerns about some of the aircraft's aerodynamics.

October, 2001- The Grumman-BAE-Northrop Douglas YF-26 is announced as the winner of the JLF competition, and is selected for further development.
Lockheed and Boeing both lodge objections claiming the testing process was biased against their aircraft. The Procurement Oversight Commission begins an official inquiry.

November, 2001- Varyag is allowed to transit through the Bosphorus after a high-level deal is reached between the Turkish and Chinese governments. It begins its long journey around Africa.

January, 2002- The Isreali Airforce receives its first F-14I aircraft.

March, 2002- The Procurement Oversight Commission investigation supports the JLF program office decision. But as a consolation announces that derived VTOL aircraft contract for the USMC requirement will be awarded in a separate competition.

June, 2002- Despite success in the JLF competition, Northrop Douglas is suffering large losses on the civilian side of its business, especially with the development of the MD-12 airliner. Boeing, eager to consolidate its commanding position in the civilian airline market, and to get its foot back in the door of the JLF program buys out Northrop Douglas for $16 billion.

August, 2002- A flight of F-14Es conduct a response strike against Iraqi SAM launchers as part of Operation Southern Watch.

So 9/11 was butterflied away ITTL?
 
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