AHQ: Royal Navy carrier strike on Wilhelmshaven, 1939

[Kantai Kessen]

In our much beloved TL, The Whale Has Wings, a powerful ATL Royal Navy carrier force with ATL aircraft conducts a night strike on Wilhelmshaven in 1939, to the detriment of the Kriegsmarine.

My question is, could a similar thing be done IRL with OTL's resources?

The POD is that, after the Munich Agreement in September 1938, Britain realises Hitler cannot be trusted, and so start training for a pre-emptive strike on the Kriegsmarine in case of war, which now seems much more likely. The German fleet has two main bases: Wilhelmshaven and Kiel. Only the former can be reached by carriers so that is selected as the target. Additionally, such an attack will have echoes of the Battle of Heligoland Bight in August 1914, and thus potentially help raise morale and confidence in the Royal Navy.

In September 1939, after Hitler invades Poland, the Home Fleet has assigned two fleet carriers: Ark Royal and Courageous. The attack planes are Swordfish and Skuas. The date for the operation is set at some point in September or October 1939; U-boat hunter-killer ops are turned over to Hermes and Furious for the duration. This will have butterflies.

So what can the RN do? What air groups can they give the two fleet carriers? What damage can be done? And what are the repercussions?

 

[MUC]

The Norway campaign is going to be a lot more difficult to pull through if this takes place.

 

[naraic]

In our much beloved TL, The Whale Has Wings, a powerful ATL Royal Navy carrier force with ATL aircraft conducts a night strike on Wilhelmshaven in 1939, to the detriment of the Kriegsmarine.

My question is, could a similar thing be done IRL with OTL's resources?

The POD is that, after the Munich Agreement in September 1938, Britain realises Hitler cannot be trusted, and so start training for a pre-emptive strike on the Kriegsmarine in case of war, which now seems much more likely. The German fleet has two main bases: Wilhelmshaven and Kiel. Only the former can be reached by carriers so that is selected as the target. Additionally, such an attack will have echoes of the Battle of Heligoland Bight in August 1914, and thus potentially help raise morale and confidence in the Royal Navy.

In September 1939, after Hitler invades Poland, the Home Fleet has assigned two fleet carriers: Ark Royal and Courageous. The attack planes are Swordfish and Skuas. The date for the operation is set at some point in September or October 1939; U-boat hunter-killer ops are turned over to Hermes and Furious for the duration. This will have butterflies.

So what can the RN do? What air groups can they give the two fleet carriers? What damage can be done? And what are the repercussions?

I do feel a similar raid could have been done (although the damage done would not quiet compare). They would need to develop the mods for the torpedoes was historically done in 1940 but theres no technical reason why that couldn't be done. Torpedo success rate might have been a touch high in TWHW and the Royal Navy did not really have dive-bombers. For example the damage to Tirpitz in the fitting out basin in the whale has wings was done with dive bombers. I do not think this could have been done otl and it couldn't be replaced with other attacks.

I believe there was a level of sweeps into the north sea by German flying boats so theres a chance of detection while inbound to the strike so there is a chance things could go wrong that way.

Probably 28 September or October give or take a day for the bet moons.

A raid on Wilhelmshaven would have massive impacts on Norway and reduce invasion panic after the fall of France.

It will also free up extra ships for convoy duty and/or the Mediterranean which could massively effect the Mediterranean.

 

[Derwit]

So in this senario the FAA practices multi carrier night raids against staitionary ships and as the war clouds thicken in early September 1939 gather a force of say 4 carriers ready to struck the German fleet. The first butterfly is that if the carriers are going to strike the Germans they are not placing themselves at risk hunting submarines this might save HMS Courageous.

OTL the RAF tried to attack German military shipping at the beginning of hostilities. The unescorted bombers got bounced by German fighters and after a couple attempts they gave up and started nighttime dropping toilet paper over the German countryside. In this senario could the bomber barron's be persuaded to go in by night following the FAA attacking shipping and shore facilities? The target area would hopefully be lit up by fires on shore and at sea to guide in the bomber stream. Regardless of the result of the FAA raid a decent sized raid by Bomber Command on Wilhemshaven is going to at least cause some damage.

Of course the more damage the British do,the more angry Hitler us going to be. Could such a raid be the catalyst for the air war to become hotter in the Phone War period?

 

[Crowbar Six]

In our much beloved TL, The Whale Has Wings, a powerful ATL Royal Navy carrier force with ATL aircraft conducts a night strike on Wilhelmshaven in 1939, to the detriment of the Kriegsmarine.

My question is, could a similar thing be done IRL with OTL's resources?

The POD is that, after the Munich Agreement in September 1938, Britain realises Hitler cannot be trusted, and so start training for a pre-emptive strike on the Kriegsmarine in case of war, which now seems much more likely. The German fleet has two main bases: Wilhelmshaven and Kiel. Only the former can be reached by carriers so that is selected as the target. Additionally, such an attack will have echoes of the Battle of Heligoland Bight in August 1914, and thus potentially help raise morale and confidence in the Royal Navy.

In September 1939, after Hitler invades Poland, the Home Fleet has assigned two fleet carriers: Ark Royal and Courageous. The attack planes are Swordfish and Skuas. The date for the operation is set at some point in September or October 1939; U-boat hunter-killer ops are turned over to Hermes and Furious for the duration. This will have butterflies.

So what can the RN do? What air groups can they give the two fleet carriers? What damage can be done? And what are the repercussions?

They were going to do that with land based Swordfish with overload tanks - there was a discussion of the mission in War in a Stringbag, they were working up to it through mining operations in the North Sea but it was called off.

 

[Astrodragon]

They really need three carriers, however if this is a pre-war plan, it could well get Courageous out of harms way. With Ark Royal, Glorious and Courageous they have enough decks.
A night strike would remove the issue of defending fighters (as at Taranto), and while interception is always a possibility, the North Sea area is pretty murky by the winter. One reason I had them attack at the end of December is the advantage of the long winter nights.
The RN had dive bombers, although use of them at night is dangerous.
As to the number of hits - well, WhW had considerably less hits/shot than Taranto (granted, the success rate at Taranto was so high you'd get screamed at if you did it as a timeline!)

It might not kill the Norwegian campaign, but it would likely mean there is even less of the Kriegsmarine left after than there was in OTL.

With OTL resources its harder than WhW, but hardly impossible.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

So in this senario the FAA practices multi carrier night raids against staitionary ships and as the war clouds thicken in early September 1939 gather a force of say 4 carriers ready to struck the German fleet. The first butterfly is that if the carriers are going to strike the Germans they are not placing themselves at risk hunting submarines this might save HMS Courageous.

OTL the RAF tried to attack German military shipping at the beginning of hostilities. The unescorted bombers got bounced by German fighters and after a couple attempts they gave up and started nighttime dropping toilet paper over the German countryside. In this senario could the bomber barron's be persuaded to go in by night following the FAA attacking shipping and shore facilities? The target area would hopefully be lit up by fires on shore and at sea to guide in the bomber stream. Regardless of the result of the FAA raid a decent sized raid by Bomber Command on Wilhemshaven is going to at least cause some damage.

Of course the more damage the British do,the more angry Hitler us going to be. Could such a raid be the catalyst for the air war to become hotter in the Phone War period?

I don't think 4 carriers would be available; they were needed for other duties in the Med and Indian Ocean, as well as training. Interesting idea for the follow-up though. It will need extra training for the RAF crews.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

They really need three carriers, however if this is a pre-war plan, it could well get Courageous out of harms way. With Ark Royal, Glorious and Courageous they have enough decks.
A night strike would remove the issue of defending fighters (as at Taranto), and while interception is always a possibility, the North Sea area is pretty murky by the winter. One reason I had them attack at the end of December is the advantage of the long winter nights.
The RN had dive bombers, although use of them at night is dangerous.
As to the number of hits - well, WhW had considerably less hits/shot than Taranto (granted, the success rate at Taranto was so high you'd get screamed at if you did it as a timeline!)

It might not kill the Norwegian campaign, but it would likely mean there is even less of the Kriegsmarine left after than there was in OTL.

With OTL resources its harder than WhW, but hardly impossible.

Ah, I was hoping to see you here!

Would Glorious be present? Personally I think that, if there is to be a 3rd carrier, it will be Furious. She was already based in Britain, unlike her sister in the Mediterranean. However this then impacts hunter-killer ops.

Can the Skuas be used as flair droppers instead of the Stringbags? Level bombing at night maybe?

 

[Astrodragon]

The Med is quiet in 1939, so no reason why Glorious couldn't be one of the three.
If you're doing a night attack, you can get more planes off in a strike as you can get them all ready first, no threat of enemy air attack.
Pretty much anything can be used to drop flares.

Unlike Taranto, there is obviously no chance of a follow-up attack, so you need the heaviest possible night strike (two waves makes the most sense). Glorious carries more planes that Furious.
Actually one big issue is available planes, the RAF hadn't delivered as promised. But for a one-off, things can be done.

 

[Lawnchair Captain]

If this plan had been developed during the previous year after the Munich Crisis is likely that the RN would have been more careful with the use of their limited resources. As Astrodragon has pointed out this could well mean that Courageous is not used to hunt (be hunted by in fact) U boats and that the RN would try to ensure that the four fleet aircraft carriers were in Scapa and ready for the attack.

So this would make an attacking force of Ark Royal, Glorious, Courageous and Furious. Skuas could be used a flare droppers and level bombers. In fact they could drop incendiaries that could be used to guide a follow-up attack by the RAF.

 

[Astrodragon]

Actually four carriers wouldn't have been used. Pre-war exercises were with a maximum of three, and it was felt anything more was just too hard to co-ordinate. Also, keeping a carrier at Scapa in case of needing to intercept a heavy raider would be sensible.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

Actually four carriers wouldn't have been used. Pre-war exercises were with a maximum of three, and it was felt anything more was just too hard to co-ordinate. Also, keeping a carrier at Scapa in case of needing to intercept a heavy raider would be sensible.

I concur. Vote for Furious in reserve/for hunter-killer ops.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I would just like to weigh in on 'Dive bombing'

Both the Skua and Swordfish could dive bomb - indeed the first warship to be sunk in wartime by aircraft were Skuas dive bombing the damaged Königsberg

In practice runs in 1933 Royal navy dive bombing the target vessel HMS Centurion scored 19 out of 48 bombs dropped

I recall reading that a similar exercise in early 39 of Malta by Swordfish proved that it was a very capable dive bomber with similar accuracy

The Swordfish was also capable of operating as a dive-bomber. During 1939, Swordfish on board HMS Glorious participated in a series of dive-bombing trials, during which 439 practice bombs were dropped at dive angles of 60, 67 and 70 degrees, against the target ship HMS Centurion. Tests against a stationary target showed an average error of 49 yd (45 m) from a release height of 1,300 ft (400 m) and a dive angle of 70 degrees; tests against a manoeuvring target showed an average error of 44 yd (40 m) from a drop height of 1,800 ft (550 m) and a dive angle of 60 degrees

Just sayin like

 

[Astrodragon]

I would just like to weigh in on 'Dive bombing'

Both the Skua and Swordfish could dive bomb - indeed the first warship to be sunk in wartime by aircraft were Skuas dive bombing the damaged Königsberg

In practice runs in 1933 Royal navy dive bombing the target vessel HMS Centurion scored 19 out of 48 bombs dropped

I recall reading that a similar exercise in early 39 of Malta by Swordfish proved that it was a very capable dive bomber with similar accuracy

The Swordfish was also capable of operating as a dive-bomber. During 1939, Swordfish on board HMS Glorious participated in a series of dive-bombing trials, during which 439 practice bombs were dropped at dive angles of 60, 67 and 70 degrees, against the target ship HMS Centurion. Tests against a stationary target showed an average error of 49 yd (45 m) from a release height of 1,300 ft (400 m) and a dive angle of 70 degrees; tests against a manoeuvring target showed an average error of 44 yd (40 m) from a drop height of 1,800 ft (550 m) and a dive angle of 60 degrees

Just sayin like

The problem with the Skua is the limited bomb load, and with both planes that dive bombing at night is dangerous. You are going to have planes go straight in.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The problem with the Skua is the limited bomb load, and with both planes that dive bombing at night is dangerous. You are going to have planes go straight in.

I would not disagree with that statement although I note it was done at Taranto (and didn't the 2 Squadrons of Applecores do night dive bombing ops before El Alemain?)

I was simply pointing out that the RN had the capability and aircraft capable of dive bombing in 1939 had the mood taken them

 

[Astrodragon]

I would not disagree with that statement although I note it was done at Taranto (and didn't the 2 Squadrons of Applecores do night dive bombing ops before El Alemain?)

I was simply pointing out that the RN had the capability and aircraft capable of dive bombing in 1939 had the mood taken them

Oh, certainly!
And risks can be taken in war that they wouldn't be allowed to take in peacetime

 

[naraic]

I would just like to weigh in on 'Dive bombing'

On the topic of dive bombing.

Almost any plane can dive bomb. That doesn't make them a dive bomber. A dive bomber should be able to manage a steep angle of dive and carry a heavy bomb with mechanical mechanisms to assist dive bombing.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

On the topic of dive bombing.

Almost any plane can dive bomb. That doesn't make them a dive bomber. A dive bomber should be able to manage a steep angle of dive and carry a heavy bomb with mechanical mechanisms to assist dive bombing.

Well you will just have to take it up with the Swordfish Pilots

They were able to do it reliably and accurately with 6 x 500 pound bombs

 

[Kantai Kessen]

Well you will just have to take it up with the Swordfish Pilots

They were able to do it reliably and accurately with 6 x 500 pound bombs

Uh... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairey_Swordfish#Specifications_(Swordfish_I)

Only 3 x 500lb bombs.

Did the RN have 1000lb weapons for anti-BB work?

 

[Kantai Kessen]

On the topic of dive bombing.

Almost any plane can dive bomb. That doesn't make them a dive bomber. A dive bomber should be able to manage a steep angle of dive and carry a heavy bomb with mechanical mechanisms to assist dive bombing.

Ernst Udet, is that you?