AHC/WI: Successful German Atomic Program

[History Learner]

Been awhile since we had one of these, so I figured why not?

The OTL German effort was pretty much a disaster. Underfunded and with around 20 separate projects or so (including the famous one by the German Post Office), it was already off to a bad start but ultimately ran into complete disaster in 1940. Although they essentially figured out Plutonium at this point and then confirmed it in 1941 through the theoretical work of Fritz Houtermans, a combination of miscalculations by both Heisenberg and cohorts at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute combined with measurements conducted by Hans Bothe lead to the conclusion graphite would not work as a moderator; they had failed to grasp, due to imprecise data, the need for ultra pure graphite and ultimately went with Heavy Water. This was further combined later on with their failure to grasp what was needed for critical mass, and the famous Allied efforts against their Heavy Water facilities in Norway.

However, despite all of this, there wasn't anything structural or insurmountable in the way of the Reich obtaining nuclear weapons from my estimation. The V-2 program cost $2 Billion, the same as the Manhattan Project and a spate of better luck probably could've prevented the Heavy Water debacle in favor of using graphite. IOTL, Heisenberg was also able to figure out the amount needed for critical mass in the immediate days following the Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki based off what news reports they could get and redoing his calculations. Given that, it seems like a lucky break or two would've been sufficient to put their program on track and with that they could've probably got the needed funding since they'd have better prospects of near term production to entice such.

Given when their project likely gets on track (1940), they'd probably be ready sometime in 1944. This brings us the question of how do the Germans deliver such weapons and it recently occurred to me they already had the means: the He-177. It was capable of carrying up to 15,000 pounds internally, more than sufficient if the German bombs end up in the IOTL American range of ~10,000 pounds.

 

[HMS Audacious]

The Junkers 390 is another possibility long range and capable of carrying a nuke

 

[Cryhavoc101]

What do they do with though?

Drop it on London, Moscow, Paris even?

Might be better to drop it on Antwerp if after Sept 1944

And then what?

How many can they produce?

And what effect would this have on the war - Berlin treated to the same with a definate post war Morganthau plan inflicted upon all of Germany?

 

[Dorknought]

The V-2 program cost $2 Billion, the same as the Manhattan Project

The Rocket and the Reich: Peenemunde and the Coming of the Ballistic Missile Era By Michael J. Neufeld says 2 Billion MARKS for the V2 and even if using a pre war exchange rate of 4.2 marks to the USD then thats 25% ($0.5B) of what the US spent on the A Bomb program ($2B). Neufeld does note that the conversion rate is a problematic assumption.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Also while 'Atomic bombs are bad mkayyy' go into 'Nuke map' - pick a target and air burst a 15 KT fat man over it

 

[New Hampshire]

I could see nuclear bombs being developed by 1944 and dropped on the Eastern Front in a desperate attempt to stem Operation Bagration, it was just the view of the officer corps that all respurces should be focused on guns, planes, and tanks and that all the Wunderwaffen were just Hitlerite insanities.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The Rocket and the Reich: Peenemunde and the Coming of the Ballistic Missile Era By Michael J. Neufeld says 2 Billion MARKS for the V2 and even if using a pre war exchange rate of 4.2 marks to the USD then thats 25% ($0.5B) of what the US spent on the A Bomb program ($2B). Neufeld does note that the conversion rate is a problematic assumption.

The trick with comparison to the gross cost of the MANHATTAN project is that was two paralle bomb projects. It's was also fastracked, with all the inefficiencies and cost of that. There were some ancilliary costs from periphrial tasks, not directly related to a weapon included.

I don't have a cost breakdown, but focusing on a simple Uranium bomb might halve the monetary costs.

 

[TheReformer]

Fun fact: Heisenberg worked out how the allies designed the bomb and presented his findings to the other German scientists captured after the war within the space of an evening after hearing the yanks had bombed Hiroshima. This lead some to believe it likely he probably knew a lot of the details how to make the bomb long before and just held them back out of a lack of desire to give the Nazis a bomb.

Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...senbergs-principles-kept-bomb-from-nazis/amp/

That sadly isnt the source I first read about this, that was more detailed and from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, but it covers it roughly.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I wonder if he could have worked out the same conclusion with what he understood in 1940?

 

[New Hampshire]

One of the things that I found interesting is that the Germans did not really seem to have a foreign intelligence presence in the vain of the UK and later the Soviet Union's KGB that could carry out covert and overt intrigue operations. Perhaps this was primarily a cold war development, but thwy could have influenced significantly the attitude taken by powers like the US as well as spy on military matters of powers they are at war with. Perhaps, if they lasted a couple of years longer, creating such a presence would enable them to steal nuclear weapons technologies from the Manhattan projects like the Soviets did in reality.

 

[longsword14]

This lead some to believe it likely he probably knew a lot of the details how to make the bomb long before and just held them back out of a lack of desire to give the Nazis a bomb.

Read Mark Walker's articles on this issue. He gives strong arguments against this view.

I wonder if he could have worked out the same conclusion with what he understood in 1940?

Walker in his book Nazi Science-Myth, Truth and the German Atomic Bomb, seems to say that the scientific knowledge was there but the kind of faith German physicists would have to show to get investment would be enormous.
Cracking the science just opens the race full of technological hurdles to make the first practical weapon, a race the US had a marked advantage in.
Have the German Bomb given to a department that is not too mundane result oriented ( OTL it was governed by the same department that worked on normal explosives ). Perhaps get some hotshot in the party hung on the prospect of a one-shot wonder weapon ?
Like the ballistics missile programme but for a nuclear weapon. Nuclear physicists were not as buddy-buddy with Reich officials as the rocket guys were.

 

[sloreck]

Producing the atomic bomb required a massive industrial plant even if you are going to go for U-235 weapon only. Whether you are going for only U-235, only plutonium (which needs more advanced engineering and theory), or both like the USA did you are going to need to devote significant resources in the engineering and materials line to get it done - resources which the Allies had a lot of and Germany not so much. The idea and parameters came from theoretical physicists, which Germany had enough of, but it was built by all manner of engineers and technicians who were in short supply. Even if you cancel the V-1 and V-2, the atomic bomb program will require more specialized personnel and most certainly can't be built by slave labor. IMHO it is unrealistic to expect the Germans to come up with a working bomb faster than the USA/Allies did, so to have a bomb before the end of the war they need to start full bore a year or two before the US project which means diverting resources and investment when they are busy rearming with conventional weapons needed "right now" to bully for the Munich settlement and prepare for the potential for war when they occupy all of Czechoslovakia etc.

The Allies were always worried about a German atomic program, hence the heavy water raids etc. Any German atomic program is likely to have issues due to sabotage and bombing attacks - both directly on the fissile production sites and the general disruption of German transportation and industry that occurred OTL. IMHO you only see a working atomic weapon (not device) if the Germans begin work on this in a massive way at least 2 years before the Manhattan Project, and they also need to develop a heavy bomber capable of carrying such a bomb. By 1944 if they had the weapon and a bomber, they could try to hit the UK but risk the bomber being shot down. Using the weapon on the Eastern Front either tactically or against Moscow has a much higher chance of success likewise use against Antwerp or similar tactical targets in the west.

As with everything in Germany, the problem is the limitation of human and material resources. What doesn't get built/designed because of the atomic bomb project. The Allies could afford to devote massive amounts of resources to blue sky projects, carried out in totally secure locations. Not so much the Germans - and remember, even if Heisenberg et al do the math, that still dos not tell them how long it will take to actually make the bomb and what resources it will consume.

 

[thaddeus]

I don't have a cost breakdown, but focusing on a simple Uranium bomb might halve the monetary costs.

always view the uranium bomb as more likely? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_hydride_bomb the yields achieved by US were 200 tonnes not the expected 1 - 3 kt, still the equivalent of 100's of their largest air dropped munitions?

it would really be needed by 1943 to have any effect? a spoiler against Bagration seems futile (even to stall it long)

Carl ninja'd my point, although directed towards Allied (US) efforts.

my speculative scenario would be for Mistel arrangement, such as Arado's latter war effort https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arado_E.377 planned as conventional bomb, they could build both nuke and conventional versions to confuse the issue?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Given when their project likely gets on track (1940), they'd probably be ready sometime in 1944. This brings us the question of how do the Germans deliver such weapons and it recently occurred to me they already had the means: the He-177. It was capable of carrying up to 15,000 pounds internally, more than sufficient if the German bombs end up in the IOTL American range of ~10,000 pounds.

The problem with the He177 as the bisected bomb bay by a support structure that prevented one big bomb from being carried internally.

One of the things that I found interesting is that the Germans did not really seem to have a foreign intelligence presence in the vain of the UK and later the Soviet Union's KGB that could carry out covert and overt intrigue operations. Perhaps this was primarily a cold war development, but thwy could have influenced significantly the attitude taken by powers like the US as well as spy on military matters of powers they are at war with. Perhaps, if they lasted a couple of years longer, creating such a presence would enable them to steal nuclear weapons technologies from the Manhattan projects like the Soviets did in reality.

They did, but they were rolled up relatively early in the war:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duquesne_Spy_Ring
They were ultimately betrayed by a German-American who had been strong armed into helping the spy ring against his will. Have them find someone else who would fill his roll and you could have the spy ring continue for quite a while. The FBI had little interest in German spies throughout most of WW2 and were more concerned about Soviet spies, so it is less than likely they would have caught them without it being betrayed internally.

 

[HMS Audacious]

Ju 290 or Ju390?

 

[Lord_Vespasian]

Also while 'Atomic bombs are bad mkayyy' go into 'Nuke map' - pick a target and air burst a 15 KT fat man over it

Does it have Trinity?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Does it have Trinity?

It has all of the popular devices from Davy Crockett to Tzar Bomb

 

[thaddeus]

The problem with the He177 as the bisected bomb bay by a support structure that prevented one big bomb from being carried internally.

the uranium hydride bomb cited in my earlier post was 56" diameter and 66" length, SC-1800 is 51" diameter and 13' long (?) but of course it is nearly twice the weight.

could one of the JU-88 variants prove more reliable? (JU-188/288/388?)

 

[Post]

Also while 'Atomic bombs are bad mkayyy' go into 'Nuke map' - pick a target and air burst a 15 KT fat man over it

Thanks. I did take a look at Antwerp and London, and was kinda disappointed with the result. A few bombs won't win the war for Germany, it might prolong it a bit though.

 

[History Learner]

I wonder if he could have worked out the same conclusion with what he understood in 1940?

The Farm Hill transcripts show how woefully they were off base with regards to the critical mass and such, but in the days after Heisenberg discarded his previous approach and by around the 15th had essentially nailed the process. Paul Harteck also came up with a better formula thereafter, so it certainly seems possible. Apparently some French and British physicists produced some public work in 1939 that could've been used to help put the Germans on track as well.

One big issue though I forgot about is that Heisenberg didn't come up with proper safety protocols though, so that's an additional hurdle, although it too can be easily rectified.

The problem with the He177 as the bisected bomb bay by a support structure that prevented one big bomb from being carried internally.

Any chance they could do like the Brits did with the Lancasters then?

What do they do with though?

Drop it on London, Moscow, Paris even?

Might be better to drop it on Antwerp if after Sept 1944

And then what?

How many can they produce?

And what effect would this have on the war - Berlin treated to the same with a definate post war Morganthau plan inflicted upon all of Germany?

All good questions and also interconnected with each other. Presuming the Germans achieve American-like results (15-20 kilotons per bomb) as well as production rates, and that the He-177 can be sufficiently modified, the chief question thus becomes the when and that informs the where.

IF in the first half of 1944, the most obvious targets:

Southampton - Port capable of handling 20 million tons of shipping, very much needed for any Cross-Channel invasion.
Naples/Salerno - Like Southampton, in that it's critical for Allied logistics in Italy.
Baku - In range of German air bases on Crimea until May, produces around 80% of Soviet oil and is major hub of the Baku-Astrakhan rail route of Lend Lease from Persia.
Astrakhan - Main influx point of Persian Corridor Lend Lease, viable until May.
Murmansk - Major port of Northern Route Lend Lease, viable until about August.
London - Blatantly obvious.
Moscow - Blatantly obvious.
Leningrad - Blatantly obvious.

IF the second half of 1944:

Antwerp - Major port for Allied logistics.
Marseilles - Ditto.
London - Blatantly obvious.
Moscow - Blatantly obvious.
Leningrad - Blatantly obvious.