AHC/WI: Successful German Atomic Program

So how many bombs on the UK until they're as reasonable as the Japanese? ...

One or two, IF the Allies are convinced there are a dozen or more to follow. In the case of Japan there was a period of denial of the implications of the Hiroshima detonation, then came the Nagasaki detonation & no one in Japans government could realistically operate thinking the Allies had expend their nuclear arsenal. It would be much the same in the case of the Allies. One or two atomic detonations might be bearable, particularly if victory in otherwise less that a year out. Believing another half dozen detonation will occur in the next couple months is a different matter. If one is used vs Britain, & another on a key Red Army logistics hub, then the Allies may start considering how a good enough' defeat of Germany might be preferable to a 'perfect' defeat. So the leaders all have a sit-down, and some one opens with "It never should have gone this far."

The US will have atomic weapons within the year. Germany now lacks most of its critical resources needed. Its industry and population crippled. Maybe a deal can made??? Or would the Allied populations see continued war more sane than allowing the nazi regime to survive?
 
-Uranium gun type: Smash two sub critical pieces together for super ciritcal boom (simplified description).
-Plutonium gun type: Smash two sub critical pieces together for super critical boom - oh wai, Plutonium fissions so quickly that a reasonably sized bomb would result in a fizzle and a working design would need to be so long and heavy to be able to shoot one half of the mass at 9 times the speed of sound that you'd need a submarine to carry it. Disregarded as unviable.
-Plutonium implosion type: A bomb looking like an oversized soccer ball, dozens of explosive charges that need to be fired at the same time before the invention of electronics, the need to shape the explosive wave through "explosive lenses" involving different kinds of explosives detonating in a way that ensures a uniform pressure wave impacts the ball of Plutonium in the center to compress it instead of tearing it apart.

Much appreciated, although I meant more cost wise and perhaps time wise. The Manhattan Project overall cost about $2 Billion and the Bomb phase took four years for both the UG type and Plutonium bomb, so I'm curious if just focusing in on the UG type might render some savings in both aforementioned categories.
 
Much appreciated, although I meant more cost wise and perhaps time wise. The Manhattan Project overall cost about $2 Billion and the Bomb phase took four years for both the UG type and Plutonium bomb, so I'm curious if just focusing in on the UG type might render some savings in both aforementioned categories.
Cost? Im an accountant allright, but i'd probably need a life time to go through all that paper from the Manhattan Project, if it still exists.

Some things to consider, the huge expenses come from:
-The Manhattan Project was rushed
-There was an excessive level of secrecy
-Wages in the USA are 2x higher than in Europe
-The installations were all newly build in the middle of nowhere
-The project was 2.5 bomb projects (Uranium gun type, Plutonium gun type (turns out it's impractical), Plutonium implosion type)
-Developing half a dozen ways to enrich Uranium or breed Plutonium, build the huge, expensive things and then end up concluding that most of them are impractically expensive and inefficient though they were still used because enriched Uranium is enriched Uranium (for example the thermal diffusion plant, the USA is the only country which build one and it's hugely inefficient)

The UG (Uranium gun type?) seems like the easiest one, from the point of view of simplicity it is, they didnt even test that thing because they were so sure it will work, but i've seen plenty of claims that breeding plutonium and seperating it chemically is a lot easier than enriching Uranium in huge industrial plants, so if you have 50s+ electronics available to enable you to time the explosives the Plutonium bomb is more attractive.

For Germany during the war this whole discussion is a bit moot, they lack the theoretical scientist, which is the most important resource during the beginning, until you need to build industrial facilities to turn theory into practical output. To have a shot at it they'd need to start in the early 30s, that way they'd have a useful stock of 100 % bio-German theoretical physicists available when jewish science becomes necessary.
 
Cost? Im an accountant allright, but i'd probably need a life time to go through all that paper from the Manhattan Project, if it still exists.

Some things to consider, the huge expenses come from:
-The Manhattan Project was rushed
-There was an excessive level of secrecy
-Wages in the USA are 2x higher than in Europe
-The installations were all newly build in the middle of nowhere
-The project was 2.5 bomb projects (Uranium gun type, Plutonium gun type (turns out it's impractical), Plutonium implosion type)
-Developing half a dozen ways to enrich Uranium or breed Plutonium, build the huge, expensive things and then end up concluding that most of them are impractically expensive and inefficient though they were still used because enriched Uranium is enriched Uranium (for example the thermal diffusion plant, the USA is the only country which build one and it's hugely inefficient)

The UG (Uranium gun type?) seems like the easiest one, from the point of view of simplicity it is, they didnt even test that thing because they were so sure it will work, but i've seen plenty of claims that breeding plutonium and seperating it chemically is a lot easier than enriching Uranium in huge industrial plants, so if you have 50s+ electronics available to enable you to time the explosives the Plutonium bomb is more attractive.

For Germany during the war this whole discussion is a bit moot, they lack the theoretical scientist, which is the most important resource during the beginning, until you need to build industrial facilities to turn theory into practical output. To have a shot at it they'd need to start in the early 30s, that way they'd have a useful stock of 100 % bio-German theoretical physicists available when jewish science becomes necessary.
Nice calculations.

Are we also counting the cost of developing silverplate B-29s? That might add a bit more to the cost.
 
Nice calculations.

Are we also counting the cost of developing silverplate B-29s? That might add a bit more to the cost.
The modification of aircraft was part of the bomb project so i'd guess the money to do that came from there as well, though i'm unsure how much the Manhattan Project influenced the B-29 project development, which itself was just as expensive, and if i remember correctly they did investigate using other, already available US and British bombers.
 
Nice calculations.

Are we also counting the cost of developing silverplate B-29s? That might add a bit more to the cost.


Mostly was fast opening bay doors, along with armament delete with armor removal and stronger bomb shackles, along with fuel injection for the engines, reversible-pitch propellers.

The biggest delay in the program was making structural changes to allow use of the 17 ft long Thin Man bomb, that turned out to be completely unneeded
 
i'm unsure how much the Manhattan Project influenced the B-29 project development, which itself was just as expensive, and if i remember correctly they did investigate using other, already available US and British bombers.
Huh, thats interesting. Your probably right. I don't doubt what you say, but if you have any sources on this I would be interested to read them.

Mostly was fast opening bay doors, along with armament delete with armor removal and stronger bomb shackles, along with fuel injection for the engines, reversible-pitch propellers.

The biggest delay in the program was making structural changes to allow use of the 17 ft long Thin Man bomb, that turned out to be completely unneeded
Oh, ok, thats simpler than I assumed at first. Presumably it would be decently cheap than anyway, it mostly seems like some pretty simple modifications.
 
Near as I can tell, a German atomic project focused on the uranium gun type would only require the following from the Manhattan Project:

Y-12 Electromagnetic Plant - $477,631,000
S-50 Thermal Diffusion Plant - $15,672,000
Los Alamos Project - $74,055,000

Credit to @marathag for cost estimates. This clocks in at about 30% of IOTL Manhattan Project costs, most of which would be covered by cancelling the V-2.
 
And what else? Because I can't believe the Nazis, even without being dumb, could turn out a bomb for a mere 1/4 the price the Americans did.

The American project went for three different designs: Uranium Gun-Type, Plutonium Gun-Type, and Plutonium-Implosion type. The Uranium Gun-Type was the easiest to manufacture and also, as far my research indicates, the cheapest to do although at the cost of being the most inefficient. The Germans probably would have to suffice for just the Uranium type, due to the immense resources needed for the Plutonium types.
 
The American project went for three different designs: Uranium Gun-Type, Plutonium Gun-Type, and Plutonium-Implosion type. The Uranium Gun-Type was the easiest to manufacture and also, as far my research indicates, the cheapest to do although at the cost of being the most inefficient. The Germans probably would have to suffice for just the Uranium type, due to the immense resources needed for the Plutonium types.
Okay. But you'd still need an aircraft equivalent of the B-29 to drop it safely.
 
It'll only be applicable over mainland Europe however, as penetrating the air defences over Britain would be probably beyond possible.
 
The American project went for three different designs: Uranium Gun-Type, Plutonium Gun-Type, and Plutonium-Implosion type. The Uranium Gun-Type was the easiest to manufacture and also, as far my research indicates, the cheapest to do although at the cost of being the most inefficient. The Germans probably would have to suffice for just the Uranium type, due to the immense resources needed for the Plutonium types.

Best case. The Japanese managed to split their research between a Army and a Navy project. Probable case is three or four under the nazis, Goering decides to redecorate Karainhall with Uranium metal trim, & Hitler insists the weapon be used against New York.
 
Best case. The Japanese managed to split their research between a Army and a Navy project. Probable case is three or four under the nazis, Goering decides to redecorate Karainhall with Uranium metal trim, & Hitler insists the weapon be used against New York.

You act like it's a bad thing Goering and perhaps others of the upper level might be exposed to radioactive materials...
 
The advantage of the U235 gun design was that it would be the easiest to make work on several levels. The bad news was that once you get the reactors up and running, you can crank out a lot more plutonium per unit time than U235. This means that even if the Germans build U235 production capabilities as large and efficient as the USA did, their bomb supply will be quite small perhaps just one at first. The other issue is that while if they only go for a uranium bomb, and this can be made up cost wise by no V2, the resources to build the physical pant to do this need to be started no later than 1939-40 to have a bomb by 1945, long before "V" programs are being funded so the money has to come from somewhere else. Also, the "stuff" and personnel you need for the V2 program are not the same that you need for the bomb program. Just the physical structures (buildings) you need for the uranium separation facilities will take up way more concrete and structural steel than the V2 programs, and certain materials needed for any of the uranium separation processes are in short supply.(1) I won't say that this resource diversion is impossible, but doing this as early as needed to get a bomb by 1944 is going to have a great deal more impact than just no V2. Given the shambolic German system, where there was very little control of resource allocation especially early in the war with fighting for scarce stuff, any disruptions in other production will be magnified.

On top of the needs of the actual facilities to get the needed U235 and the research facilities associated with it, you also need to design, build, and test an aircraft capable of carrying this weapon safely with a range from Germany to Britain or Moscow and then build it in adequate numbers so that you have a trained bomb delivery squadron (like the 509th) ready to go once you have a weapon. The potential bomb carriers the Luftwaffe had in small numbers or in prototype need to be ready in larger numbers and much sooner than OTL - again this means a diversion of men and materiel from other aircraft projects.

(1) In order to build the massive electromagnets at Oak Ridge a very large amount of the US silver supply was taken from the US mint to make silver wire for the conductor, as copper was needed for other war related items. After the war the silver wire was replaced by copper, and the silver wire remelted into bars and returned to the mint.
 
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